Europe is set to face a cold snap this month, with potential snowfall in countries including Germany and Britain, raising gas demand as the heating season draws to a close.
(Bloomberg) — Europe is set to face a cold snap this month, with potential snowfall in countries including Germany and Britain, raising gas demand as the heating season draws to a close.
Temperatures are expected to be below normal across much of the continent, with chances of snow early in the month, according to Maxar Technologies Inc., Atmospheric G2 and Marex. The late return of cold weather is due to so-called sudden stratospheric warming, which can cause extreme cold in the Northern Hemisphere.
The turn in weather comes at the end of a mild winter that helped Europe keep its gas storage topped up and avoid the doomsday scenario of rolling blackouts during the energy crisis. Still, a cold March could pressure those inventories a bit — and also comes as a storm has brought snow to the northeast US, including New York.
“Snowfall is forecast over Germany, the Alps, Poland and into southeastern and northeastern Europe, as well as over parts of the UK,” Marex meteorologist Evangeline Cookson said.
Mild conditions in Europe so far this winter — while a reminder of climate change — helped push gas prices down more than 80% since August to levels seen before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
That has taken some of the pressure off high inflation, eased recession worries and helped keep gas stockpiles higher than normal. Storage levels are now 62% full, and some countries have topped them up at a time when they’d usually draw them down.
Meteorologists saw signs of an SSW taking place from late last month. It will cause colder-than-average conditions across northern, central and western Europe through early March, with milder-than-normal weather in the southeast, Atmospheric G2’s Amy Hodgson said.
While the SSW comes to an end, its colder impacts will continue to be felt, according to Maxar meteorologist Matthew Dross.
After a cold first half of March, temperatures should moderate in the mid-continent and the west, while staying on the cold side of normal for Scandinavia, Dross said. That should mean above-normal heating demand through mid-month, before a return toward normal, he said.
Snow Potential
UK temperatures are expected to drop below seasonal norms in March, with snow possible at times, according to the country’s Met Office. Cold in northern and eastern areas could bring wintry showers, and there’s a low chance they’ll become more widespread, it said.
Germany’s national forecaster DWD also expects cold weather in early March, accompanied by rain in the lowlands and snow in the mountains. Both forecasters however said that March conditions are hard to predict, with the Met citing the SSW impact as the reason.
Even with the forecast cold snap, this winter is expected to rank in the top 10 mildest that Europe has seen in records going back four decades, Maxar’s Dross said.
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