Underlying inflation in the euro area hit a record in January, revised data showed, likely cementing the European Central Bank’s plan to raise interest rates by another half-point next month.
(Bloomberg) — Underlying inflation in the euro area hit a record in January, revised data showed, likely cementing the European Central Bank’s plan to raise interest rates by another half-point next month.
Core price gains reached 5.3% — more than an initial reading of 5.2% — Eurostat said Thursday. Headline inflation, which includes food and power, also ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 8.6% after Germany’s figure turned out to be higher than the agency’s preliminary estimate.
The report underscores the enduring effects of Europe’s worst price shock in a generation after Russia’s war in Ukraine sent energy costs soaring. It will further embolden ECB hawks who are focused on underlying price pressures even as the overall gauge retreats. Surveys showing the continent’s economic resilience have similarly been interpreted as grounds to push on with hikes.
Officials led by President Christine Lagarde said at the their last meeting that they intend to lift the deposit rate to 3% from 2.5% when they gather next to set borrowing costs. With that move now seemingly locked in, even more attention will fall on the policy path beyond March 16.
What Bloomberg Economics Says…
“Combined with a resilient economy, today’s inflation reading may allow the hawks at the ECB to push up interest rates until the start of the summer.”
—Maeva Cousin, senior euro-area economist. For full REACT, click here
Following tough remarks last week from Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, markets have boosted monetary-tightening bets and now see the peak of the ECB’s rate cycle at about 3.75%.
Bank of France chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau sought to push back against such assumptions Wednesday, saying hikes at all upcoming meetings aren’t guaranteed.
Money-market wagers receded by 2 basis points on Thursday, envisaging the deposit rate will top out at 3.73% by October. But they were little changed from before the inflation data.
–With assistance from Barbara Sladkowska, Joel Rinneby and James Hirai.
(Updates with BE after fourth paragraph)
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