Citigroup Inc. is taking a less upbeat line on Egyptian bonds about three months after turning optimistic about their prospects, as concern builds over the cash-strapped nation’s slow progress in selling state assets.
(Bloomberg) — Citigroup Inc. is taking a less upbeat line on Egyptian bonds about three months after turning optimistic about their prospects, as concern builds over the cash-strapped nation’s slow progress in selling state assets.
Strategists at the New York-based bank said they reduced their overweight call on Egyptian debt, saying the nation’s privatization plan is “increasingly falling behind targets.”
Sentiment is souring as Egypt struggles to regain access to external financing, with many of its dollar bonds trading at distressed levels of at least 10 percentage points over US Treasury yields. The International Monetary Fund has said it’s waiting to see privatization deals for state assets and genuine flexibility in Egypt’s currency before carrying out the first review of a $3 billion rescue program.
“Idiosyncratic risks remain elevated in Egypt,” the strategists, including Eric Ollom and Luis Costa, said in a note. “The prospect of a delayed IMF agreement is increasing as the pace of privatization appears insufficient to meet its quantitative performance criteria.”
Egypt’s dollar debt is among the worst performers across emerging markets this month, with a loss of about 3%. The securities had outpaced most peers in July as the government finalizes $1.9 billion of previously announced state-asset sales to replenish its coffers.
Longer Wait
Moody’s Investors Service is continuing a review for a downgrade of Egypt’s non-investment grade rating — which began in May — as it weighs progress on the government’s reform agenda against factors including evidence of a further weakening in external liquidity.
The IMF deal is a vital component of Egypt’s efforts to turn around an economy that was tipped into crisis by the shockwaves of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Inflation running at the fastest ever during the past two months pushed the central bank to unexpectedly raise interest rates a week ago.
Citigroup remains bullish on Egypt’s bond due 2029 as any announcement on additional deals can boost the credit, the strategists said. Most of the nation’s dollar securities rose on Friday, with the 2029 note trading around 68 cents on the dollar.
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