The dollar weakened against the euro and most other currencies after a slew of Federal Reserve officials laid out the case for a downshift in the US central bank’s rate-tightening campaign, contrasting with the hawkish drumbeat from European policymakers.
(Bloomberg) — The dollar weakened against the euro and most other currencies after a slew of Federal Reserve officials laid out the case for a downshift in the US central bank’s rate-tightening campaign, contrasting with the hawkish drumbeat from European policymakers.
Concerns for the US economy, widely expected to tumble into recession later in 2023, ongoing wrangling in Congress over the debt ceiling and signals from companies are weighing on US equity sentiment too. Index futures were broadly lower, struggling to build on Friday’s momentum that lifted S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes after four days of losses.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 benchmark was steady, reflecting investors’ preference for a market with cheaper shares, in a region that could end up dodging recession. European stocks are up close to 7% this year, almost double the S&P 500’s gain.
Meanwhile, the euro strengthened to the highest since April 2022. The single currency is up almost 2% this year against the greenback, after falling nearly 6% last year.
“The market has decided recession risks were overdone for Europe and you can see that in the outperformance of European stocks and the euro,” said Rabobank strategist Jane Foley.
Markets have seized on latest comments from Fed officials, especially from Governor Christopher Waller who said on Friday policy looked pretty close to sufficiently restrictive and he backed moderation in the size of rate increases.
By contrast, European Central Bank policymaker Klaas Knot spoke in favor of continuing with half-point interest-rate increases at the next two meetings, echoing hawkish comments made last week by fellow ECB officials.
The diverging rate bets have weighed on the dollar which shed 0.2% against a basket of peers on Monday for its third day of losses, while 10-year Treasury yields slipped.
Pressure on the dollar increased after last week’s data showed retail sales declining by the most in a year and a slump in business equipment production.
“The market has been offloading dollars, which reflects the view the Fed will cut rates by year end,” Rabobank’s Foley said. Traders were dismissing any hawkish Fed comments and to draw on rhetoric suggesting rates could start falling, she added.
Equity investors will now watch for signals from the earnings season. While oil-field giant Schlumberger Ltd. and financial services provider State Street Corp beating forecasts last week, Google parent Alphabet Inc. became the latest tech giant to cull thousands of jobs and analysts said fewer earnings beats were expected this season than normal.
Earlier, Asian stocks enjoyed a strong session, albeit in holiday-thinned trade, with Japan’s Topix index up as much as 1%. The yen also gained 0.5% against the dollar.
Japanese 10-year yields slipped after the central bank acted to stem the rise in bond yields by offering banks ¥1 trillion yen ($7.7 billion) of collateralized loans. Yields held aroumd 0.375%, well below policymakers’ 0.5% ceiling.
Elsewhere, oil edged lower as investors assessed the outlook for demand following China’s reopening and risks to Russian output in 2023.
Key events this week:
- Earnings for the week include: Abbott Laboratories, American Airlines, American Express, AT&T, Blackstone, Boeing, Colgate-Palmolive, Freeport-McMoRan, General Electric, Intel, International Business Machines, Johnson & Johnson, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, Mastercard, Nokia, SAP, Southwest Airlines, Texas Instruments, Verizon Communications, Visa
- Euro area consumer confidence, Monday
- US Conference Board leading index, Monday
- ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Monday
- PMIs for US, euro area, UK, Japan, Tuesday
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing, Tuesday
- ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Tuesday
- US MBA mortgage applications, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Wednesday
- US fourth-quarter GDP, new home sales, initial jobless claims, good trade balance, durable goods, wholesale inventories, retail inventories, Thursday
- Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday
- US personal income/spending, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, pending home sales, Friday
Here are some of the main market moves:
Stocks
- S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% as of 5:28 a.m. New York time
- Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.1%
- Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
- The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed
- The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
- The euro rose 0.5% to $1.0907
- The British pound was little changed at $1.2392
- The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 129.90 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $22,897.54
- Ether rose 0.6% to $1,637.23
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 3.49%
- Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.20%
- Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 3.40%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $82.03 a barrel
- Gold futures were little changed
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
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