MANILA (Reuters) – Developing Asia will likely end the year on a brighter note, the Asian Development Bank said on Wednesday, with growth in the region expected to be stronger than previously thought due mainly to a recovery in China’s economy.
The ADB raised its 2023 growth forecast for developing Asia to 4.9% from 4.7% projected in September, but kept its growth outlook for the region at 4.8% next year.
The ADB also revised upwards its growth projection for China to 5.2% from 4.9% previously, but maintained its growth forecast for the world’s second-largest economy at 4.5% next year.
China’s economy grew at a faster-than-expected clip of 4.9% in the third quarter, while consumption and industrial activity in September also surprised on the upside, supported by a flurry of policy measures that bolstered a tentative recovery.
The ADB said robust domestic demand, stronger remittances, recovering tourism were underpinning economic activity in the region, which consists of 46 economies in the Asia-Pacific and excludes Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
Outlook for the sub-regions was mixed, with East Asia seen growing faster at 4.7% this year versus the ADB’s 4.4% forecast in September, while Southeast Asia was projected to grow at 4.3%, slower than the previous forecast of 4.6%.
South Asia was likewise expected to post stronger growth of 5.7% this year from 5.4% previously, with India’s economy seen expanding at a faster clip of 6.7% this year.
Inflation in developing Asia was forecast to ease to 3.5% this year, down slightly from ADB’s earlier expectation, before rising slightly to 3.6% in 2024.
GDP GROWTH 2021 2022 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024
JULY SEPT DEC JULY SEPT DEC
Caucasus and 5.8 5.1 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.7 4.6
Central Asia
East Asia 7.9 2.8 4.6 4.4 4.7 4.2 4.2 4.2
China 8.4 3.0 5.0 4.9 5.2 4.5 4.5 4.5
South Asia 8.4 6.7 5.5 5.4 5.7 6.1 6.0 6.0
India 9.1 7.2 6.4 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7
Southeast 3.5 5.6 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.9 4.8 4.7
Asia
Indonesia 3.7 5.3 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Malaysia 3.1 8.7 4.7 4.5 4.2 4.9 4.9 4.6
Myanmar -5.9 2.0 n/a 2.8 n/a n/a 3.2 n/a
Philippines 5.7 7.6 6.0 5.7 5.7 6.2 6.2 6.2
Singapore 8.9 3.6 1.5 1.0 1.0 3.0 2.5 2.5
Thailand 1.5 2.6 3.5 3.5 2.5 3.7 3.7 3.3
Vietnam 2.6 8.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 6.2 6.0 6.0
The Pacific -1.4 6.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.9
Developing 7.2 4.3 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.8
Asia
INFLATION
JULY SEPT DEC JULY SEPT DEC
Caucasus and 9.0 12.9 10.6 10.6 10.9 7.8 8.0 8.4
Central Asia
East Asia 1.1 2.3 1.3 1.0 0.9 2.1 2.1 2.1
China 0.9 2.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 2.0 2.0 2.0
South Asia 5.8 8.2 8.1 8.6 8.6 6.4 6.6 6.7
India 5.5 6.7 4.9 5.5 5.5 4.5 4.2 4.2
Southeast 2.0 5.1 4.3 4.2 4.2 3.2 3.3 3.5
Asia
Indonesia 1.6 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.0 3.0 3.0
Malaysia 2.5 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7
Myanmar 3.6 18.4 n/a 14.0 n/a n/a 8.2 n/a
Philippines 3.9 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.2 4.0 4.0 4.0
Singapore 2.3 6.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 2.0 3.0 3.0
Thailand 1.2 6.1 2.9 2.5 1.5 2.3 2.3 2.3
Vietnam 1.8 3.2 4.0 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0
The Pacific 3.1 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.4 4.5 4.5
Developing 2.6 4.4 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.6
Asia
(Reporting by Karen Lema; Editing by Kanupriya Kapoor)
