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UK activists who tried to paint Taylor Swift jet spared jail

Two climate activists were Monday spared jail by a UK court after they sprayed two planes with orange paint to protest US pop star Taylor Swift’s use of private jets.Just Stop Oil (JSO) activists Jennifer Kowalski, 29, and Cole Macdonald, 23, attempted to target Swift’s flight with spray paint in June 2024 when the singer, who has faced criticism over her private jet use, was on tour in the UK.They were handed short suspended jail sentences by a court in east England for spraying and causing criminal damage to two planes that belonged to an insurance firm and an investment group instead.”The actions of the two of you were all about publicity – both for Just Stop Oil and for yourselves,” Judge Alexander Mills said.”What greater publicity could there be than anything related to Taylor Swift?… That’s what you hoped to achieve.”The protesters had entered the airfield at Stansted airport, northeast of London, after breaking through a fence and entering a private area before using the fire extinguishers filled with orange paint.The protesters claimed Swift’s jet had landed at Stansted “hours earlier”, but local police said that her jet was not at the airport at the time.Just Stop Oil is a climate group known for its public stunts to protest the use of planet-warming fossil fuels, often by spraying famous paintings, infrastructure or monuments with orange paint.In March this year, the group announced it was ending high-profile climate protests, saying it had accomplished its initial aim of stopping new oil and gas projects in the UK.The trial “demonstrates, again, the establishment will protect the wealthy and privileged while punishing those seeking to protect us and defend our freedoms and natural justice,” Just Stop Oil said in a statement.Swift has been condemned by environmentalists for her prolific private jet travel. In 2022, she headlined a list published by British sustainability marketing firm Yard of the “worst private jet CO2 emission offenders” among celebrities.

‘It adds up’: NY cost of living propels socialist’s mayoral bid

A giant yellow banner on a busy expressway linking New York’s Brooklyn and Queens boroughs proclaims: “Vote Zohran — for a city we can afford.”The city’s soaring cost of living, perhaps more than any other issue, has propelled the unlikely Democratic socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani to the front of the Big Apple’s mayoral race. Early voting began Saturday and election day is November 4.Astronomical rents and housing scarcity are pervasive problems in America’s most populous city of 8.5 million people where one in four people cannot afford life’s essentials. In June, the median New York rent exceeded $4,000 for the first time, according to the StreetEasy property site — more than double the US average.Unregulated rents increased 5.6 percent in the first quarter of 2025 compared to 2024.Mamdani has said he wants to freeze rents for the two million rent-stabilized tenants whose housing increases are governed by the city, and build 200,000 additional homes in the next decade.Critics say his policies will deter maintenance and investment.”Whatever you need to live in this city, that is not something that you should be priced out of,” he said on the hugely popular Breakfast Club radio show.”We can’t let the market determine who gets to live that dignified life.”Under outgoing mayor Eric Adams, regulated rents have gone up 12.6 percent since he took over in 2022, approved by an independent board Mamdani could shake up.”(Mamdani) realizes that everything is — after Covid (and) inflation — very expensive, and people feel strained,” said Daniel Schlozman, an associate professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University.”He was speaking to those issues in ways that his leading rival Andrew Cuomo was not.”- ‘Politics of affordability’ -Outside a recent Mamdani rally, Santiago, a 69-year-old retiree who did not give his last name, brandished a banner reading “we want affordable housing for our community.” “We are overwhelmed by housing costs,” he said in the shadow of the George Washington Bridge that links the city to New Jersey, the neighboring state where many New York families have been forced to move in search of lower rents.Santiago gave the Bronx as an example where lower average wages have been outstripped by rising rents. For community organizer Lex Rountree, “tenants make up 70 percent of New York, so we are the majority.” “We have, if we come together, a real chance to make a huge impact,” the 27-year-old added, wearing tenant rights pins on her shirt.Mamdani painted Cuomo, the former New York state governor, as a friend of landlords and big business, attacking him in a debate for policies that neglect the cost of living. “That’s why he lost the primary. That’s why he’ll lose the general election,” Mamdani said in a TV debate.Surging grocery prices compete with outlandish rents for the top spot among New Yorkers’ economic complaints.Prices of eggs, meat, poultry and fish have surged by 8.9 percent in the city in the last year.”Grocery prices are out of control — as mayor, I will create a network of city-owned grocery stores,” Mamdani said on Instagram.Nine in 10 New Yorkers say grocery costs are going up faster than their incomes, according to Mamdani’s campaign.The proposal drew criticism from the right, and from fellow Democrat Cuomo, who questioned “Why would you subsidize rich people’s purchase of food?”US President Donald Trump, a fierce critic of Mamdani, has called the frontrunner a “communist.”But a Data for Progress Poll showed that two-thirds of New Yorkers backed the proposal.”He realized that the politics of affordability were absolutely critical,” Schlozman said.Steven Looez, a 41-year-old bartender, told AFP he has considered leaving New York for a more affordable city.”We’re always kind of perplexed where our money goes,” he said. “It adds up.””But I’m a little spoiled being in New York City, where everything you need culturally and socially is here, so it’s hard to match that.”

Trump in Japan as hopes grow for China trade deal

Optimism grew Monday that Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping will end their bruising trade war during talks this week, as the US president touched down in Tokyo on the latest leg of an Asian tour.Trump said en route to close US ally Japan that he was hopeful of a deal when he sees Xi on Thursday, while also indicating he was willing to extend his trip in order to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.”I have a lot of respect for President Xi and we are going to I think… come away with a deal,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One, adding that he aimed to go to China “in the earlier part” of 2026.The optimism boosted stock markets, with Japan’s Nikkei surpassing 50,000 points for the first time.As dozens of people gathered at Haneda Airport to take photos, the presidential plane — also bearing Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — landed at sunset.Sporting a golden tie, Trump boarded a helicopter to take him into the bright lights of the Japanese metropolis in time for an evening audience with the emperor.”A great man,” Trump said afterwards.On Tuesday, Trump was expected to meet new conservative Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and make a speech on the USS George Washington aircraft carrier, docked at the US naval base Yokosuka.”I hear phenomenal things. (Takaichi) was a great ally and friend of Shinzo Abe, who was my friend,” Trump said, referring to the assassinated former premier.- ‘Framework consensus’ -Trump’s Asia trip, his first tour of the region since returning to office, kicked off in Malaysia on Sunday with a flurry of agreements on the sidelines of an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit.He also moved to mend fences with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, but not with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, ruling out a meeting any time soon.”Canada has been ripping us off for a long time and they’re not going to rip us off any more,” Trump said.The greatest prize for Trump — and for global markets — remains a China deal.Trump is due to meet Xi on Thursday in South Korea for their first face-to-face talks since the 79-year-old Republican’s return to the White House.Before Trump’s arrival in Malaysia, Bessent and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng held two days of trade talks, seeking an agreement to avoid additional 100 percent tariffs due to come into effect on November 1.Negotiators from Beijing and Washington have both confirmed a “framework” has been agreed.”The two sides… reached a framework consensus on reciprocal solutions to current pressing economic and trade issues,” China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, according to a state media readout of his Monday call with Rubio.Earlier on Air Force One, Bessent said they had “a framework for President Trump (and) President Xi to decide”.- ‘Hot’ trucks -On Friday, Takaichi announced in her first policy speech that Japan would be spending two percent of gross domestic product on defence this fiscal year.But Washington, which has around 60,000 military personnel in Japan, wants Tokyo to spend more, potentially matching the five percent of GDP pledged by NATO members in June.Most Japanese imports into the United States are subject to tariffs of 15 percent, less painful than the 25 percent first threatened.However, Trump also wants Japan to import more American products like rice, soybeans and cars, including “hot” Ford F-150 pickup trucks.Questions also surround Japan’s commitment to invest $550 billion in the United States, as specified in their July trade deal.”What I expect is that, since he (Trump) is someone who acts decisively, things might move in a positive direction for Japan,” said Tokyo resident Sayaka Kamimoto, 45.- Kim meeting? -Trump is due in South Korea on Wednesday for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, and will meet President Lee Jae Myung.Trump has also fuelled speculation that he could hold face-to-face talks with North Korea’s Kim while on the Korean peninsula.The two leaders last met in 2019 at the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ), the border area separating the two Koreas.”I would love to meet with him if he’d like to meet. I got along great with Kim Jong Un. I liked him. He liked me,” Trump said on Air Force One.Asked if he would extend his trip to enable a meeting, he said: “Well, I hadn’t thought of it, but I think the answer would be yeah, I would, I would do that, sure.”

Trump reveals he underwent MRI scan

US President Donald Trump said Monday he had received an MRI scan during a recent hospital visit, providing an explanation for the first time for why he underwent a second medical exam in a year.The Republican billionaire — who turns 80 in June — has been accused of a lack of transparency over his health, and his surprise trip to Walter Reed medical center on the outskirts of Washington earlier in October fueled further speculation about his physical condition.”I did. I got an MRI. It was perfect,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One Monday.”I gave you the full results. We had an MRI, and the machine, you know, the whole thing, and it was perfect,” he added.MRI — or magnetic resonance imaging — scans are used to diagnose a range of conditions, from tumors, strokes and multiple sclerosis to much less serious complaints like muscle tears and inflammation. The White House has not previously offered a reason for the October 10 hospital check-up, which was noted as unusual since presidents typically get only one comprehensive exam a year.Trump — the oldest person ever inaugurated as US president — declined to say on Monday why he had received the screening, referring reporters to his doctors.”Nobody has ever given you reports like I gave you. And if I didn’t think it was going to be good, either, I would let you know negatively, I wouldn’t run, I’d do something,” Trump said.”But the doctor said some of the best reports for the age, some of the best reports they’ve ever seen.” During his second term, Trump has appeared regularly with bruising on his right hand, sometimes concealed with heavy makeup. The White House said it was linked to the aspirin he takes as part of a “standard” cardiovascular health program.The administration announced in summer that the president had been examined for swelling in his legs and diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency.The common vein condition — which can also cause cramping and changes in the skin — affects the valves in certain veins, allowing blood to collect, and can be treated with medication or medical procedures. The administration said at the time of his second check-up that his lab results — including heart screening — were within normal limits, and there were no signs of arterial disease or deep vein thrombosis.”President Trump continues to demonstrate excellent overall health,” his doctor, Navy Captain Sean Barbabella, wrote in a letter released by the White House. 

Putin terminates plutonium disposal agreement with US

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on Monday terminating an already defunct plutonium disposal agreement with the United States that aimed to prevent both sides from building more nuclear weapons.The move comes as ties cool between Putin and US President Donald Trump, who has expressed mounting frustration at his Russian counterpart for refusing to accept a peace deal in Ukraine.Trump scrapped plans for a peace summit with Putin last week, saying it would have been a “waste of time”, and ruled out rescheduling unless the Russian leader sent signals he would agree to a deal.The Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement, signed in 2000 and amended in 2010, committed Moscow and Washington to reduce their vast Cold War-era stockpiles of plutonium by 34 metric tonnes each and use it for nuclear power instead.US officials estimated the agreement would eliminate the material needed to produce the equivalent of around 17,000 nuclear weapons.Putin had already suspended Russia’s participation in the agreement in 2016, when ties were fraying with Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama.The law that Putin signed on Monday, approved by Russian lawmakers earlier this month, is a formal “denunciation” of the agreement.Western leaders have accused Russia of nuclear sabre-rattling since it sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022.Days after launching the offensive, Putin put his nuclear forces on high alert, and last year the Russian leader signed a decree lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons.On Sunday, Putin announced Russia had launched a successful final test of a new nuclear-powered cruise missile.

‘Definitive solution’ on Brazil-US trade within days: Lula

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Monday a trade deal with the United States could happen within days, possibly easing punitive tariffs after months of animosity.Lula met President Donald Trump at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit on Sunday, after urging the US leader earlier this month to lift punitive 50 percent trade tariffs.”I’m convinced that in a few days we’ll have a definitive solution…. so that life can continue well and happily,” Lula told reporters in Malaysia on Monday.The two leaders of the Americas’ largest economies stand on polar opposite sides on issues such as multilateralism, international trade and the fight against climate change.Trump has instituted a 50 percent tariff on many Brazilian products.He has also imposed sanctions on several top officials, including a Supreme Court judge, to punish Brazil for what he termed a “witch hunt” against former president and ally Jair Bolsonaro.In September, Brazil’s Supreme Court sentenced Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison for his role in a botched coup bid after his 2022 election loss to Lula.Trump again on Sunday told reporters he felt “very badly about what happened” to Bolsonaro.”I’ve always thought he was a straight-shooter, but you know, he’s going through a lot”, Trump said.Asked by a reporter whether Bolsonaro would form part of Trump’s discussions with Lula, Trump replied: “None of your business.”- ‘Surprisingly good’ -Lula, who turned 80 on Monday, stressed that the issue about Bolsonaro had ended after his talks with Trump, saying the jailed politician “is part of the past of Brazilian politics.”Relations between Trump and Lula first began to thaw when the leaders had a brief meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September.They then spoke by phone on October 6.On Monday, Lula said his meeting with Trump had been “surprisingly good”.”He (Trump) assured me that we are going to have an agreement,” he said.Brazilian officials on Monday added they were in a “much more positive scenario” than a few weeks ago.”We are making spectacular progress,” said Marcio Rosa, executive secretary for Brazil’s foreign ministry.Brazil’s Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira said he and other officials had met US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.”We agreed to work towards building a satisfactory agreement for both parties in the coming weeks,” Viera said.Lula is returning to Brazil on Tuesday, after visits to Indonesia and his first attendance at the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur, highlighting Brazil’s growing partnership with the region.

Venezuela says US military exercises on nearby island a ‘provocation’

Venezuela on Sunday blasted the arrival in nearby Trinidad and Tobago of a US warship as a dangerous “provocation,” amid mounting fears of potential attacks against the Venezuelan mainland.The USS Gravely, a guided missile destroyer, docked Sunday in the Trinidadian capital Port of Spain for a four-day visit, which will include joint training with local defense forces.The ship’s arrival comes amid a mounting military campaign by US President Donald Trump against alleged drug-traffickers in Latin America, which has largely targeted Venezuelans and thus far been limited to deadly strikes in international waters.Trump has increasingly threatened in recent days to take the campaign on land, while Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro claims Washington is plotting his ouster.Trinidad and Tobago, which is situated just 11 kilometers (6.8 miles) from the Venezuelan coast at its closest point, has sided with Washington against its neighbor.Venezuela angrily denounced “the military provocation of Trinidad and Tobago, in coordination with the CIA, aimed at provoking a war in the Caribbean.”Caracas added that it had arrested “a group of mercenaries” with links to the CIA, days after Trump said he had authorized covert CIA operations against Venezuela.Maduro’s government claimed the alleged mercenaries were mounting a “false flag attack” aimed at provoking a full-blown war, without giving details.Venezuela regularly claims to have arrested US-backed mercenaries working to destabilize Maduro’s administration.- US strikes on boats -The USS Gravely is one of several warships Washington deployed to the Caribbean in August as part of an anti-drugs campaign that Venezuela sees as a front for trying to topple Maduro, whose reelection Washington rejects as fraudulent.Tensions escalated sharply on Friday, when the Pentagon also ordered the deployment of the world’s biggest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R Ford, to the region.US forces have blown up at least 10 boats they claimed were smuggling narcotics, killing at least 43 people, since September.The standoff has pulled in Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, a sharp critic of the US strikes who was sanctioned by Washington on Friday for allegedly allowing drug production to flourish.Caracas has accused Trinidad and Tobago, a laid-back twin-island nation of 1.4 million people whose Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar is fiercely critical of Maduro, of serving as “a US aircraft carrier.”The Trinidad and Tobago government said the USS Gravely’s visit “aims to bolster the fight against transnational crime and build resilience through training, humanitarian activities, and security cooperation.”It values its relationship “with the people of Venezuela” and remains committed to “the creation of a safer, stronger and more prosperous region,” a government statement said.- ‘Getting a lash’ -In Port of Spain, some people welcomed the government’s show of support for Trump’s campaign but others worried about getting caught up in a regional conflict.”If anything should happen with Venezuela and America, we as people who live on the outskirts of it… could end up getting a lash any time,” 64-year-old Daniel Holder, a Rastafarian who wore a white turban, told AFP.”I am against my country being part of this,” he added.Victor Rojas, a 38-year-old carpenter who has been living in Trinidad and Tobago for the past eight years, said he was worried for his family back home.”Venezuela is not in a position to weather an attack right now,” he said, referring to the country’s economic collapse under Maduro.Trinidad and Tobago, which acts as a hub in the Caribbean drug trade, has itself been caught up in the US campaign of strikes on suspected drug boats.Two Trinidadian men were killed in a strike on a vessel that set out from Venezuela in mid-October, according to their families. The mother of one of the victims insisted he was a fisherman, not a drug trafficker.Local authorities have not yet confirmed their deaths.

US shutdown poker: Which side has the winning hand?

Washington is in a standoff and the chips are down — with the government shuttered for weeks, federal workers stuck in limbo and millions who rely on health insurance subsidies scared of losing the shirt off their backs. Behind the scenes, it’s not just about budgets — it’s about who’s winning the blame game.Democrats argue they have the clearer story and the more relatable message. Republicans have President Donald Trump’s megaphone, but critics say their argument is tangled in technicalities.Polling shows the public assigning blame to both parties. The most recent surveys show a plurality blaming Republicans, although Trump remains largely unscathed. But with each missed paycheck and rising premium, the stakes get higher — and someone is going to fold.- The stakes -This shutdown isn’t your garden-variety gridlock — it’s already the second-longest in history and neither side looks close to backing down.It is the first significant shutdown driven by Democrats, and only the second time the government has paused over demands to spend rather than save.Democrats want to extend subsidies for health insurance premiums that help millions afford coverage. Republicans say reopen the government first, then maybe we’ll talk.But Republicans control the White House, House, and Senate. So when the lights go out, Democrats say their opponents cannot offload the blame.- Democrats’ play: Keep it simple -Democrats are betting on clarity: Republicans are in charge and letting the government stall while health care costs spiral. Ashley Kirzinger, from health research group KFF, says the message that “health care is at risk” is a widely understood pitch that lands.”What we found is 78 percent of the public — including majorities of Democrats, independents, Republicans and (Trump) supporters — all think Congress should extend the premium tax credits beyond 2025,” she told NPR.Democrats also feel comfortable taking the fight to Republicans on a “tent pole issue” central to their brand, says American University politics professor Matthew Foster. – Republicans move from red meat to procedure -Republicans — from Trump to Vice President JD Vance and House Speaker Mike Johnson — kicked off the shutdown with a blunt message: “Democrats want to fund free health care for illegal immigrants.”The claim didn’t hold up, as undocumented immigrants are barred from the benefits Democrats are pushing, and polling on its effectiveness is threadbare.Republicans soon pivoted to process.They argue they passed a “clean CR” — a temporary funding bill — and blame the gridlock on Democrats wielding the “filibuster,” the 60-vote threshold required to get legislation through the 100-member Senate.Critics say voters don’t care about procedural chess, and trying to explain the filibuster is like reading the fine print on a casino voucher.The voters that matter “aren’t paying close enough attention to know this nuance,” Foster says.- Who’s holding the better cards? -Democrats are playing the emotional hand — health care, working families, real-world consequences.Republicans lean on process and power plays. Trump’s bravado fires up the base but analysts say he risks alienating voters who just want their paychecks and prescriptions.”Polls show that people aren’t necessarily blaming him yet, but as the economy turns, as other things do, that could shift drastically,” Foster says.In the most recent polling, Reuters/Ipsos found 50 percent blame Republicans, 43 percent Democrats. Hart Research showed 52 percent blame Trump and Republicans, while 41 percent point the finger at Democrats.Trump’s approval in the Ipsos poll ticked up over the shutdown, from 40 to 42 percent.- Playing the long game -Democrats are looking past the gridlock, and elevating health care as a defining issue for 2026 midterm elections. As premiums rise and frustration builds, they hope voters connect the dots: Republican control equals shutdown pain.Republicans see leverage — a chance to reshape government and flex muscle. But the longer it drags on, analysts say, the more the shutdown looks like a risky bet.”Both sides are blaming the other for breaking America,” said Peter Loge, a professor of political communication at George Washington University.”And if they’re not careful, both sides will be right.”

Prison film fest brings Hollywood and healing to US jailhouse

Held inside a notorious prison among some of California’s most dangerous felons, the San Quentin Film Festival is not your typical Hollywood affair.Red-carpet interviews take place just yards (meters) away from a now dormant execution chamber where hundreds of death-row inmates met grisly ends.Convicted murderers sit alongside famous actors and journalists, applauding films made by their fellow inmates.Among them is Ryan Pagan, serving 77 years for first-degree murder.”I always wanted to be an actor — but unfortunately that’s not the life I ended up living,” explains Pagan, prison tattoos peeking out from the short sleeves of his jailhouse-issue blue shirt.His film “The Maple Leaf,” made behind bars, is competing for best narrative short film — a category only for currently or formerly incarcerated filmmakers.Pagan, 37, was a teen when he committed his crime, and hopes his new skills directing movies could one day offer “a pipeline to Hollywood, to employment.”Though it did not win, the movie — about a self-help group in which prisoners tackle guilt and shame — won high praise from a jury including director Celine Song (“Past Lives”) and actor Jesse Williams (“Grey’s Anatomy.”)”Right now, I’m just doing the work and rehabilitating myself. Part of the story of ‘The Maple Leaf’ is about guys like me,” he says.- ‘Healing’ -The oldest prison in California, San Quentin was for decades a maximum-security facility that hosted the nation’s biggest death row — and a famous concert by Johnny Cash in 1969.It has become a flagship for California penal reform, and no longer carries out executions.Rehabilitation programs include a media center where prisoners produce a newspaper, podcasts and films. The projects are intended to provide employable skills, as 90 percent of inmates will one day be released.The festival, launched last year, offers inmates a chance to meet mainstream filmmakers from the outside.Founder Cori Thomas, a playwright and screenwriter, had volunteered at the prison for years, and wanted a way to show her Hollywood peers the “exceptional work” being made in San Quentin.”The only way would be for them to come in here to see it,” she realized.After two successful editions, the festival will expand to a women’s prison in 2026.- ‘Warning Signs’ -San Quentin’s film program is also a chance for inmates to confront their often brutal pasts.Miguel Sifuentes, 27 years into a life sentence for an armed robbery in which his accomplice killed a police officer, says creating short film “Warning Signs” was “a transformative healing experience.”He plays an inmate contemplating suicide. Total strangers in prison who watched the film later approached him to open up about their own suicidal thoughts, he says.”It really wasn’t like acting — it was just speaking from a real place of pain,” Sifuentes said.Prison warden Chance Andes told AFP that cathartic activities like filmmaking and events like the festival help “reduce the violence and the tension within the walls.”Inmates who cause fights or otherwise break prison rules temporarily lose their chance to participate. Andes says these lessons resonate after the prisoners are released.”If we send people out without having resolved their trauma and having no skill set, no degree, no schooling, they’re more likely to reoffend and cause more victims,” he says.- ‘Grateful’ -Even rehabilitation-focused prisons like San Quentin remain dangerous places.”We’ve had assaults where nurses have been hurt by patients,” said Kevin Healy, who is a union president and trains staff at San Quentin.”It’s a prison… it comes with the territory.”Overhead circling the courtyard is a narrow walkway, where guards with deadly rifles can appear at the first sign of unrest.But it is a far cry from the terrifying maximum-security prisons where both Pagan and Sifuentes began their sentences, and where Sifuentes nearly died after being stabbed.At least on this sunny festival day, as incarcerated musicians play cheerfully in the courtyard, that violence feels temporarily at bay.”Honestly, I hate to say ‘I’m grateful to be at this prison,’ says Pagan.”But in a sense I am.”

US Fed will likely cut again despite economic murkiness from shutdown

The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its second rate cut of the year on Wednesday, despite a lack of clarity over the health of the US economy due to the ongoing government shutdown.The US central bank’s second-to-last rate meeting of the year is taking place against the backdrop of a weeks-long standoff between Republicans and Democrats over health care subsidies, resulting in a suspension of publication of almost all official data. Without these key insights into the US economy, Fed officials will be forced to set interest rates without the full spectrum of data they normally rely upon.Analysts and traders expect the bank will plow ahead with a quarter percentage-point cut, lowering its key lending rate to between 3.75 percent and 4.00 percent, without giving too much away about the final rate cut of the year in December.The lack of official information complicates the ongoing debate at the Fed over whether to cut rates swiftly in order to support the weakening labor market, or to stand firm in the face of inflation, which remains stuck stubbornly above the bank’s long-term target of two percent, fueled by Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on top trading partners.The US central bank has a dual mandate from Congress to act independently to tackle both inflation and unemployment, which it does by raising, holding, or cutting its benchmark lending rate. “They’ll have to decide how much (inflation) is still to come versus how much is just never going to come, and that’s the big question right now,” former Fed official Joseph Gagnon told AFP. Asked Sunday why consumer prices remain high, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent blamed the “affordability crisis” on the previous administration of Democrat Joe Biden and said he was confident that inflation would ease “in the coming months.” “We will see a drop in inflation back towards the Fed’s two percent target,” Bessent told NBC’s “Meet the Press.”- ‘Blunt tool’ -The only major data point to be published since the shutdown began on October 1 was the US consumer inflation data, which came in hot at 3.0 percent in the 12 months to September, according to delayed Labor Department data published on Friday. But the figure came in slightly below expectations, cheering the financial markets, which closed at fresh records on the news.The Fed uses a different measure to gauge inflation, but that guideline also remains stuck well above target, according to data published before the shutdown.On the other side of the mandate, employment has slowed sharply in recent months, with just 22,000 jobs created in August, even as the unemployment rate hugged close to historic lows at 4.3 percent. “The goal is to get it just right, and that’s a hard thing to do with such a blunt tool,” KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk told AFP, referring to the Fed’s key interest rate.  Swonk expects the Fed to cut twice more this year, and to announce an end to its program of shrinking its balance sheet next week — known as quantitative tightening — in the face of rising liquidity risks. – Fed under political pressure -The Fed has been rocked this year by relentless attacks on personnel directed from the White House, with Trump often taking to his Truth Social network to criticize Fed chair Jerome Powell, who steps down next year. The Trump administration has also gone after Fed governor Lisa Cook, attempting to remove her from her post on accusations of mortgage fraud. Cook fought back against the legal challenge to remove her, with the case going all the way up to the US Supreme Court, which has said it will hear the arguments against her in January next year.The timing of that decision means the Supreme Court is unlikely to rule on whether Cook can remain in her post before the end of February, the deadline for when the US central bank’s board must decide whether to reappoint regional Fed presidents — a process that only happens once every five years. “It seems like the odds that he could do this maneuver are greatly diminished,” said Gagnon from PIIE.