AFP USA

President Donald Trump declined Sunday to rule out the possibility that the United States might enter a recession this year.”I hate to predict things like that,” he told a Fox News interviewer when asked directly about a possible recession in 2025.”There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big — we’re bringing wealth back to America,” he said, adding, “It takes a little time.”Trump’s commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, was more definitive when asked Sunday about the possibility of a recession.”Absolutely not,” he told NBC’s “Meet the Press” when asked whether Americans should brace for a downturn.Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff threats against Canada, Mexico, China and others have left the US financial markets in turmoil and consumers unsure what the year might bring. Stock markets just ended their worst week since the November election.Measures of consumer confidence are down, as shoppers — already battered by years of inflation — brace for the higher prices that tariffs can bring.And widespread government layoffs being engineered by Trump’s billionaire advisor Elon Musk add further concern.When asked later Sunday to clarify his remarks on whether there could be a recession, Trump told reports on Air Force One “Who knows?”Overall, the signs are mixed.A widely watched Atlanta Federal Reserve index now predicts a 2.4 percent contraction of real GDP growth in the year’s first quarter, which would be the worst result since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.Much of the uncertainty stems from Trump’s shifting tariff policy — effective dates have changed, as have the sectors being targeted — as businesses and investors try to puzzle out what will come next.Kevin Hassett, Trump’s chief economic advisor, was asked on ABC whether tariffs were primarily temporary or might become permanent.Hassett said that depended on the behavior of the countries targeted. If they failed to respond positively, he said, the result could be a “new equilibrium” of continuing tariffs.The administration has insisted that while the economy will pass through a possibly bumpy “transition,” things are headed in a positive direction.In his State of the Union message on Tuesday, Trump told Americans to expect “a little disturbance” as tariffs take hold, while adding: “We’re okay with that. It won’t be much.” And his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned of a “detox period” as the economy cuts government spending.Given the uncertainties, economists have been wary of making firm predictions. Economists at Goldman Sachs, citing Trump’s policies, have raised their odds of a recession over the next 12 months from 15 percent to 20 percent.And Morgan Stanley predicted “softer growth this year” than earlier expected.Recessions are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of weak or negative GDP growth. The US was briefly in recession in early 2020 as the Covid pandemic spread. Millions of people lost jobs.

A leader of Columbia University protests against Israel’s war in Gaza was arrested by immigration officers, a campus union said Sunday, after US President Donald Trump vowed to deport foreign pro-Palestinian student demonstrators.Mahmoud Khalil, one of the most prominent faces in the campus’s protest movement that erupted in response to Israel’s conduct of the war, was arrested Saturday, the Student Workers of Columbia union said.”On Saturday, Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officers detained Mahmoud Khalil, a Palestinian recent Columbia graduate and lead negotiator for last spring’s Gaza solidarity encampment,” the union said in a statement.US campuses including Columbia’s in New York were rocked by student protests against Israel’s war in Gaza following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. The demonstrations ignited accusations of anti-Semitism.Protests, some of which turned violent and saw campus buildings occupied and lectures disrupted, pitted students protesting Israel’s conduct against pro-Israel campaigners, many of whom were Jewish. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote on X that “we will be revoking the visas and/or green cards of Hamas supporters in America so they can be deported.”Khalil, who remains in immigration enforcement detention, held permanent residency at the time of his arrest prompting thousands of people to sign a petition calling for his release, the union statement added. “We are also aware of multiple reports of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents accessing or attempting to access Columbia campus buildings on Friday and Saturday, including undergraduate dorms,” the union said.Columbia did not directly address Khalil’s arrest in response to inquiries, but in a statement said “there have been reports of ICE in the streets around campus.” “Columbia has and will continue to follow the law. Consistent with our longstanding practice and the practice of cities and institutions throughout the country, law enforcement must have a judicial warrant to enter non-public University areas, including University buildings,” Columbia said.The Department of Homeland Security did not respond to a request for comment.Trump railed against the student protest movement linked to the conflict in Gaza, and vowed to deport foreign students who had demonstrated.He also threatened to cut off federal funding for institutions that he said were not doing enough to combat anti-Semitism.His administration announced Friday it was cutting $400 million in federal grants to Columbia University, accusing it of failing to protect Jewish students from harassment.

Hundreds gathered Sunday in Selma, Alabama to mark the 60th anniversary of “Bloody Sunday,” when a group of peaceful demonstrators marched for African Americans’ voting rights and were brutally beaten by police.As the group began marching the 50 miles (80 kilometers) to the southern state’s capital on March 7, 1965, state troopers blocked their path and attempted to turn them back.The police began beating the protesters when they refused to disperse, leaving at least 17 hospitalized and 40 others needing treatment, with the violence documented by accompanying journalists.”Bloody Sunday” catalyzed support for Black rights and led a few months later to the passage of the Voting Rights Act, a federal law prohibiting racial discrimination in voting.On Sunday, there was a festival atmosphere as crowds stopped to take photographs and pause in front of signs for the town of Selma and the Edmund Pettus Bridge.A contingent of bow-tied, white-gloved freemasons processed in a column across the bridge as part of the commemoration.”We’re here to remind people that there are human and civil rights that we are all entitled to. And that we don’t need to step back, we need to keep moving forward,” said Alicia Jordan, a 32-year-old bank employee.The event is known as “The Annual Pilgrimage to Selma,” and features a festival of arts and music ahead of the March to Restore Voting Rights across the Edmund Pettus Bridge.Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the top Democrat in the US House of Representatives, addressed the gathering, which was attended last year by then-vice president Kamala Harris.”We stand here in support of civil rights, stand here in support of voting rights, stand here in support of racial justice, social justice, economic justice,” Jeffries told the crowd.”They want us to step back, but we are here to make clear that we are going to fight back,” he said.Selma native Godfrey King told AFP ahead of the march that his “father was thrown in jail for the right to vote.” “My pastor at the time was one of the courageous eight, Dr. Frederick D. Reese. My uncles were thrown in jail, cattle prodded on Bloody Sunday. Voting is so important to me.”

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum told cheering crowds Sunday that she is confident that her country has headed off the threat of US tariffs for now.Last week, Sheinbaum’s US counterpart Donald Trump agreed to offer another month of temporary relief on threatened tariffs on imports from Mexico.During a huge rally in Mexico City of 350,000 people, according to local authorities, Sheinbaum declared herself “optimistic” about the future of the trade relationship.But she also warned Mexico “cannot give up our sovereignty.”Sheinbaum originally organized the event to announce the tariff and non-tariff trade measures with which Mexico would respond if Trump had carried through with his threat.But on Thursday, Trump once again put a pause on plans to impose a 25 percent tariff on imports into the United States from Mexico — which represent 80 percent of Mexican exports.Announcing the truce, Trump said he had done this out of respect for Sheinbaum and argued that the pair have a “very good” relationship.US financial markets had also reacted negatively to the tariff threat, and most economists agree that if implemented they would damage both countries’ economies. “We gather to congratulate ourselves because, in the relationship with the United States, with its government, dialogue and respect prevailed,” Sheinbaum said.In the Mexican capital’s Zocalo square, she added: “We cannot yield on our sovereignty, nor can our people be affected by decisions made by foreign governments.”In such a case, we will always act immediately,” she said. “I am convinced that the relationship must be good, respectful, and that dialogue will always prevail.”Trump’s justification for tariffs on US imports from Mexico and Canada — which are part of the USMCA trilateral free trade deal — has varied.- Recession threat? -He claims the US economy is losing out to unfair Mexican and Canadian competition, but also accused both of turning a blind eye to undocumented migrants and illegal drugs.In particular, Washington is incensed over shipments of fentanyl, a synthetic opioid that kills thousands of Americans each year.Citing US figures, Shenbaum told the crowd that — thanks to seizures made in Mexico — the amount of fentanyl into the United States across the countries’ 1,900-mile (3,100-kilometer) border decreased by half between October 2024 and January 2025. She said Mexico will continue to cooperate to tackle smuggling for “humanitarian reasons” and she hopes the United States remembers its promise to control the trafficking of arms to Mexican criminal organizations. While Mexico is an important supplier to the United States of products such as avocados and tequila, the biggest impact of a trade war would be on the manufacturing production chains of the three USMCA partners. Experts warn that if the tariffs as described by Trump were implemented then Mexico would fall into recession.Seeking to correct alleged trade imbalances, Trump has pledged to launch “reciprocal” tariffs on all countries beginning on April 2.Sheinbaum said she was “optimistic because on that day… they would not have to be applied” to Mexico, given most products are covered by the USMCA trade deal.

Voting closed Sunday in the race to lead Canada’s Liberal Party, with a former central banker and political novice favored to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as the country confronts threats from US President Donald Trump. Mark Carney, who served as the governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, is the front-runner to be named Liberal leader when results are announced, likely before 7:00 pm (2300 GMT).Voting closed at 3:00 pm after 151,899 party members cast ballots, the Liberal party said.  Carney has racked up endorsements, including from much of Trudeau’s cabinet and more than half of Liberals in parliament.  His main challenger is Trudeau’s former deputy prime minister, Chrystia Freeland, who held several senior cabinet positions in the Liberal government that was first elected in 2015.A Freeland win would be a surprise for the party as it heads towards an election that must be held by October, but could come within weeks.  The new Liberal leader will become prime minister in the coming days, turning the page on the Trudeau era, but they may not have the job for long, with current polls putting the Conservatives as slight favorites to win the upcoming vote. Both Freeland and Carney have maintained that they are the best candidate to defend Canada against Trump’s attacks.The US president has repeatedly spoken about annexing Canada and thrown bilateral trade, the lifeblood of the Canadian economy, into chaos with dizzying tariff actions that have veered in various directions since he took office.- ‘Most serious crisis’ -Party supporters gathered Sunday at an Ottawa hall draped in red where the winner will be announced. Lozminda Longkines, a Carney supporter, told AFP that Trump’s repeated musings about making Canada the 51st US state were “a blessing in disguise.””We are so united… We have a common enemy,” the 71-year old said.Greg MacEachern, who declined to say who he was supporting, agreed the party would emerge from the vote tightly focused on Trump. “This is a serious time, and I think people have taken this leadership race very, very seriously,” said MacEachern, wearing a hockey jersey. Carney has argued that he is the ideal counter to Trump’s disruptions, reminding voters that he led the Bank of Canada through the 2008-2009 financial crisis and steered the Bank of England through the turbulence that followed the 2016 Brexit vote. Trump “is attacking what we build. He is attacking what we sell. He is attacking how we earn our living,” Carney told supporters at a closing campaign rally near Toronto on Friday.”We are facing the most serious crisis in our lifetime,” he added. “Everything in my life has prepared me for this moment.”Data released from the Angus Reid polling firm on Wednesday shows Canadians see Carney as the favorite choice to face off against Trump, potentially offering the Liberals a boost over the opposition Conservatives. Forty-three percent of respondents said they trusted Carney the most to deal with Trump, with 34 percent backing Tory leader Pierre Poilievre. Before Trudeau announced his plans to resign in January, the Liberals were headed for an electoral wipeout, but the leadership change and Trump’s influence have dramatically tightened the race.”I think we were written off about four months ago, and now we’re right back where we should be,” second tier leadership candidate and former MP, Frank Baylis, told AFP in Ottawa. – Not a politician? -Carney made a fortune as an investment banker at Goldman Sachs before entering the Canadian civil service. Since leaving the Bank of England in 2020, he has served as a United Nations envoy working to get the private sector to invest in climate-friendly technology and has held private sector roles. He has never served in parliament or held an elected public office.Analysts say his untested campaign skills could prove a liability against a Conservative Party already running attack ads accusing Carney of shifting positions and misrepresenting his experience. The 59-year-old has portrayed himself as a new voice untainted by Trudeau, who he has said did not devote enough attention to building Canada’s economy. In the coming days, Trudeau and the new Liberal chief will visit Canada’s Governor General Mary Simon — King Charles III’s official representative in Canada — who will task the leader with forming a government.  

“Mickey 17,” a black comedy from Oscar-winning director Bong Joon-ho, topped the North American box office this weekend with an estimated take of $19.1 million, industry watcher Exhibitor Relations reported Sunday.But Warner Bros. and Plan B are not celebrating yet — given the film’s production cost of a reported $118 million.  The film — the director’s first since his “Parasite” became the first foreign language film to win a best-picture Oscar — had been eagerly awaited. Robert Pattinson plays Mickey, who volunteers for hazardous space missions and, when killed, is repeatedly “reprinted” to be sent out again. Steven Yeun, Toni Collette and Mark Ruffalo also star.Marvel and Disney’s “Captain America: Brave New World” slipped one spot to second, earning $8.5 million for the Friday-through-Sunday period. In four weeks, the superhero flick has taken in $176.6 million domestically and an additional $194 million abroad.Focus Features’ “Last Breath” earned $4.2 million for third place. Woody Harrelson, Simu Liu and Finn Cole play a team of deep-sea divers racing to save a stranded teammate.In fourth was Neon Studio’s comedy-horror film “The Monkey,” based on a Stephen King story, at $3.9 million. Theo James, Rohan Campbell and Elijah Wood star in the tale of a toy monkey with a homicidal gleam in its eye.And in fifth was Sony and Columbia’s “Paddington in Peru,” about the lovable red-hatted teddy bear, at $3.85 million.It was a notably slow theatrical weekend, coming just a week after Oscar-winning director Sean Baker (“Anora”) made an impassioned plea at the Academy Awards ceremony for people to support the big-screen experience.But analyst Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore said things will get better. “That is the rollercoaster that is the box office,” he said. “It will come back.”Rounding out the top 10 were:”Dog Man” ($3.5 million)”Anora” ($1.9 million)”Mufasa: The Lion King” ($1.7 million)”Rule Breakers” ($1.6 million)”In the Lost Lands” ($1 million)

The United States has ended a sanctions waiver that allowed Iraq to buy electricity from neighboring Iran, in line with President Donald Trump’s policy of exerting “maximum pressure” on Tehran.In a statement Sunday, the State Department said the decision not to renew the waiver was made to “ensure we do not allow Iran any degree of economic or financial relief.”The move comes two days after Trump said he had written Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to press for new talks on Tehran’s nuclear program.The US president warned of possible military action if Iran did not give in — a message that prompted Khamenei to reject “bullying” by foreign powers. Iran supplies a third of Iraq’s gas and electricity, providing Tehran with substantial income.- ‘Never take place’ -The Iranian mission to the United Nations on Sunday suggested Tehran might be willing to discuss certain issues — but not the complete end of its nuclear program.”If the objective of negotiations is to address concerns vis-a-vis any potential militarization of Iran’s nuclear program, such discussions may be subject to consideration,” said a statement from the mission.”However, should the aim be the dismantlement of Iran’s peaceful nuclear program to claim that what Obama failed to achieve has now been accomplished, such negotiations will never take place.”The waiver was introduced in 2018, when Washington reimposed sanctions on Tehran after Trump abandoned a nuclear deal with Iran negotiated under President Barack Obama.Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has reinstated his policy of exerting “maximum pressure” against Iran.”The President’s maximum pressure campaign is designed to end Iran’s nuclear threat, curtail its ballistic missile program, and stop it from supporting terrorist groups,” a spokesman for the US embassy in Baghdad said earlier Sunday.The spokesman urged Baghdad “to eliminate its dependence on Iranian sources of energy as soon as possible.”The landmark 2015 deal that Obama helped negotiate between Tehran and major powers promised sanctions relief in return for Iran curbing its nuclear program.Tehran, which denies seeking nuclear weapons, initially adhered to the nuclear deal after Trump pulled out of it, but then rolled back commitments.US officials estimate Iran would now need mere weeks to build a nuclear bomb if it chose to.- ‘All scenarios’ -Trump pulled out of the agreement over the objections of European allies, instead imposing sweeping US sanctions on any other country buying Iran’s oil. The waiver was extended to Iraq as a “key partner” of the US.Iraq, despite having immense oil and gas reserves, remains dependent on such energy imports. But Baghdad said it had prepared “for all scenarios” regarding the waiver.The ending of the energy waiver is expected to worsen the power shortages that affect the daily lives of 46 million Iraqis.Gulf analyst Yesar Al-Maleki of the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) said Iraq will now face challenges in providing electricity, especially during summer.To alleviate the impact, Iraq has several options including increasing imports from Turkey.

Since Donald Trump’s election, many ordinary voters have been desperate for an effective resistance to his aggressive drive to downsize the US government and recalibrate its foreign policy.But they are bristling at what they have seen so far — Democratic lawmakers waving paddles in Congress and appearing in much-mocked dance videos, and staid press conferences outside the gray buildings of Washington institutions.”Democrats need a plan. Not placards on the House floor, not screaming at the president, not silly videos,” said top strategist Richard Gordon, who has advised politicians and candidates at all levels for more than 35 years.”They need a plan on how to improve the lives of everyday Americans. Until they do, all the screaming and protesting in the world will fall on deaf ears.”In the latest in a series of missteps ripped apart on social media, Democrats protested against Trump’s speech to Congress with a variety of stunts that were largely missed by TV audiences. Texas Congressman Al Green was ejected for interrupting the president, but for the most part the Democrats were ignored by the cameras as they waved anti-Trump slogans, some “protesting” in pink, in a display that almost no one at home would have noticed.- Theatrics -For critics of the Democratic response to Trump’s first weeks in office, the episode demonstrated the party’s lack of discipline and a clear strategy to oppose the Republican leader.”These theatrics made the Democrats look petty and, ultimately, incapable of influencing the debate,” said Matthew N. Klink, a veteran political strategist and communications expert.Democratic Senator Adam Schiff acknowledged the lack of a coordinated response to Trump’s speech was “a mistake” and said it was time the party got its act together.”Taking our eye off the ball, I think, is very dangerous,” he told ABC “This Week” on Sunday.In a whirlwind first six weeks in office, Trump has issued a torrent of contentious executive orders, given allies cause to fear America has switched sides in the Russia-Ukraine war and unleashed tech billionaire Elon Musk to fire thousands of federal workers and begin dismantling government agencies.Meanwhile Democratic senators have responded with gestures of cooperation, voting to confirm Trump cabinet appointees, doing little to slow down his breakneck agenda and even voting with Republicans to pass immigration legislation.Opposition can be tough for any party effectively leaderless after losing Congress and the White House — but analysts see pitfalls that Democrats could be avoiding.Brad Chase, who has worked in communications and crisis management for more than 20 years, says Democrats are not speaking the language of voters with their focus on nuance and “high-minded ideals.””Trump and the (Republicans) go extremely basic — ‘The Bidens are a crime family.’ That is memorable and easy to understand,” Chase told AFP. “The Dems act like lawyers and bend over backwards to explain what is ‘alleged’ or to explain things rather than just tell people.”- Too many issues -Those protests during Trump’s speech to Congress highlighted another problem, says Chase — a lack of message discipline. “Dems all went off on different topics. Al Green was so itching for a fight that he jumped up… over the mundane issue of Trump’s so-called ‘mandate’ — not over some blatant lie about Russia or economics,” he said.”The American people don’t want 50 issues. They want one or two.”For Mike Fahey, who ran an independent candidate’s 2024 presidential campaign, Democrats’ insistence on practicing pre-Trump politics is leaving them trailing in his wake.”It’s not about an all-night debate in Congress. People want to see action now. And frankly, they’re not,” he said.So what would that action look like? For many Washington-watchers, it’s the economy, stupid.”If the last election was primarily about inflation and grocery prices, there’s an opportunity for Democrats to reclaim this issue,” said Andrew Koneschusky, a former aide to the party’s leader in the US Senate, Chuck Schumer.”Groceries prices aren’t going down, they’re going up. Every Democrat in front of a camera should have a giant poster next to him or her with the current price of eggs.”

In the fiery spat between Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, it was a sentence that went largely unnoticed, but said quite a lot about the closeness the US leader thinks he has with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.”Let me tell you, Putin went through a hell of a lot with me,” Trump said on February 28 in the unprecedented and very public Oval Office clash.”He went through a phony witch hunt,” Trump added, referring to an investigation during his first term into whether his 2016 election campaign colluded with Moscow.Even though that allegation was repeatedly denied by the Kremlin, the Republican president seems now to be saying the incident forged a sense of solidarity between the leaders.The day before, in talks with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump said he believed Putin would “keep his word,” adding: “I spoke to him, I’ve known him for a long time now.”For Sasha de Vogel, the associate director of the Authoritarian Politics Lab at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Trump “sees Putin as almost an aspirational figure.””He sees Putin as a strong man, a leader who is the decider in the situations that he is involved in, who has made Russia a much stronger country on the global stage during his time in office — and Trump wants to have that same kind of position.”The researcher however believes that Trump “overestimates their relationship.””Putin is not a businessman who Trump can earn the trust of. Putin is a highly strategic, extremely experienced politician,” she said, adding that the former KGB agent is “not operating on these same kinds of terms of personal like and dislike.”- ‘Great-power politics’ -Other experts note a certain ideological convergence between the longtime Russian leader and the new US administration.Putin hopes to “return to a model of great-power politics, where the United States and Russia can negotiate as equals and agree on spheres of influence,” Natia Seskuria, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, wrote in Foreign Policy magazine.According to Seskuria, the Russian leader believes that all territory of the former Soviet Union is his “rightful sphere of influence,” while Trump has a similar “expansionist mindset” that extends to Greenland, Canada and even the Panama Canal.After a long telephone conversation on February 12 with Putin, Trump said the Russian president wanted “peace” in Ukraine, adding: “I think he would tell me if he didn’t.”On other occasions, he has called Putin “a very smart guy” and “a very cunning person,” all the while refusing to call him a dictator — a word he has used to describe Zelensky.Trump “wants to be liked/respected by Putin, not understanding that… Trump’s fawning over him will be greeted by scorn in the Kremlin,” said Timothy Ash, a Russia specialist at the London-based think tank Chatham House.- ‘Erratic’ -De Vogel, however, said calling Trump a puppet of Putin, as some Democrats have done, is too reductive.”He changes his mind quite quickly. He’s very driven by emotion and by personal vengeance and things like this,” she told AFP.”And for that reason, he’s also erratic as a partner to Russia.”During Trump’s first term in the White House (2017-2021), the United States was not as favorable to Moscow as the Kremlin had hoped it would be.Trump agreed to sell Javelin anti-tank missiles to Kyiv, and his administration imposed a series of sanctions on Russia.The US leader sprung a surprise again on Friday, writing on his Truth Social platform: “Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia.”Shortly afterward, in an exchange with reporters, Trump’s tone became much more conciliatory, as he said it was “easier” to deal with Russia than with Ukraine.”I’ve always had a good relationship with Putin. And you know, he wants to end the war,” he said.”I think he’s going to be more generous than he has to be, and that’s pretty good. That means a lot of good things.”