AFP USA

Tariffs: Economic ‘liberation’ or straitjacket?

US President Donald Trump has made tariffs a cornerstone of his trade policy, insisting that they will revive American manufacturing while swelling government coffers.Critics argue that the levies will boost inflation in the near term and weigh on growth, triggering a trade war that could inflict serious damage on the United States and the wider global economy.Trump has imposed tariffs on major trading partners Canada, Mexico and China since returning to the presidency while slapping fresh duties on steel and aluminum imports, with more to come on what he dubbed “Liberation Day” this Wednesday.- What are tariffs? -Tariffs are fees that importing businesses pay for their purchases of foreign goods.When tariffs are imposed, companies must choose between forking out more for foreign goods — and potentially passing those costs on to consumers — or looking for alternatives.The levies bring in revenue for governments imposing them and are commonly used to protect local companies and workers from competition abroad.The charges can make domestic goods more cost-competitive, encouraging buyers to select local producers instead.- Arguments for -Trump’s position is that with tariffs on key imports, companies will move more manufacturing to the United States — or buy US-made products — to avoid additional fees.A commonly-used example is the “chicken tax” of the 1960s, when president Lyndon Johnson pushed back against European tariffs on American poultry with a levy on imported trucks.Today, a 25 percent US tariff remains on light trucks and this is a key reason that most pick-up trucks sold in the country are built in North America.The White House says new tariffs could also bring in more than $6 trillion in federal revenue over the next decade — about $600 billion per year — although it has yet to release its full plans.While US-based companies generally pay the tariffs, White House officials have argued that foreign sellers would absorb the hike by lowering their prices as they seek to do business with the world’s biggest economy.Supporters of Trump’s trade policy also say that tariffs did not cause widespread inflation during his first White House term.- Arguments against -But economists warn that tariff hikes can bring economic pain to affected sectors, and Trump’s stop-start approach to announcing levies has sent financial markets tumbling.If companies are unable to absorb additional fees and foreign sellers decline to lower their prices, the burden of tariffs could flow to other firms or consumers. Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on autos and parts could cause the price of a typical car to surge by $5,000 to $10,000, said Wedbush analysts.Even US automakers producing cars in the country use up to 50 percent of foreign auto parts, they said.”It would take three years to move 10 percent of the auto supply chain to the US and cost hundreds of billions with much complexity and disruption,” Wedbush added.Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic estimates that recent tariffs on Chinese goods, alongside steel and aluminum imports, would raise construction material prices by up to nine percent.Prices of appliances could also surge up to 15 percent, she said.Trump’s tariffs attract retaliation too, and countermeasures triggered more than $27 billion in US agricultural export losses from mid-2018 to late-2019.The Tax Foundation said: “Based on actual revenue collections data, trade war tariffs have directly increased tax collections by $200 to $300 annually per US household, on average.”These estimates do not account for “lower incomes as tariffs shrink output, nor the loss in consumer choice” as buyers seek tariff-free alternatives, it added.

Undocumented migrants turn to Whatsapp to stay ahead of US raids

Fearing a US immigration raid will separate her from her children, an undocumented Honduran immigrant hunkers down in her Washington home, anxiously scouring a WhatsApp group for real-time updates on nearby sweeps.Rosario, a 35-year-old mother of two, practically lives in hiding in the face of US President Donald Trump’s sweeping campaign to arrest and deport millions of undocumented immigrants since his return to the White House in January.Her only lifeline is a community group on the messaging app that provides news about immigration raids in Washington neighborhoods — often mixed with unverified or false information.”You stay informed and stay a little more alert thanks to the group,” Rosario told AFP in her studio apartment, festooned with birthday balloons, stuffed toys, and a wall hanging made from corn husk.”That way, you get rid of fear a little bit — but fear always persists,” said the part-time dishwasher, who crossed into the United States in 2021 after an arduous journey from her home country.Rosario, who refused to disclose her real name, peered through her window blinds for any lurking agents from ICE — the Immigration and Customs Enforcement department, which has been deployed to carry out the Trump administration’s promise to target undocumented immigrants.”Alert: ICE activity was reported at a business center on (Mount) Pleasant around noon,” a message flashed in the group, adding that six masked agents were spotted in the Washington neighborhood and one person was detained.It was not possible for Rosario to ascertain whether the tip was real or fake.Still, she remained confident the community group, fed by other immigrants and advocates, provided reliable information — crucial for determining her limited movements to work and to purchase groceries.- ‘Scary climate’ -Rosario also puzzled over another morsel of unverified information in the group that had not appeared in the mainstream media: that an undocumented female immigrant was detained by ICE at a school in the Bethesda neighborhood.Immigration sweeps on educational institutions are rare, but the Trump administration has said it no longer considers sensitive locations such as schools, churches, and hospitals off-limits to agents. The policy has been legally challenged by religious organizations.Such uncertainty and fear have spawned a flurry of rumors about suspected immigration raids and movements of ICE agents that ricochet across messaging apps and online platforms, leaving immigrant communities on edge.In February, AFP’s fact-checkers debunked a viral online video that claimed to show an undocumented Colombian woman being expelled from the United States. In reality, it was a fictionalized clip posted in 2023 by an American YouTuber.Last month, another online video purportedly showed undocumented immigrants being arrested from a US barbershop. AFP found the video staged, with the uniforms worn by the supposed immigration officials appearing inauthentic.”In the current scary climate, it is hard to know what’s true, what’s inaccurate,” the director of an immigration advocacy group in Washington told AFP, requesting anonymity.The heightened fears among immigrant communities, he added, have made it harder to “decipher fact from fiction.”- ‘Fear grabs you’ –Despite an uptick in immigration arrests, authorities appear to be struggling to meet Trump’s mass deportation goals.The number of deportation flights since Trump took office on January 20 has been roughly the same as those in the final months of President Joe Biden’s administration, US media reported, citing data collected by an immigration rights advocate.That has done little to allay fears among the country’s estimated 14 million undocumented immigrants.Those concerns are aggravated by the government’s shock-and-awe tactics of publicizing raids in major cities and footage of shackled migrants being loaded onto deportation flights.Amid a lack of reliable information and fears of stepped-up raids, many undocumented immigrants have gone underground, with some even withdrawing their children from school, advocacy groups say.Many also remain vulnerable to exploitation by their employers.Elizabeth, an undocumented immigrant and mother of five, avoids the messaging groups filled with unverified information, choosing instead to stay vigilant and aware of her surroundings.”If you don’t know what is happening, fear grabs you,” she told AFP, declining to share her real name and country of origin.”Fear is a product of misinformation.”

What next for Venezuela as Trump goes after oil revenues?

President Donald Trump has revoked the licenses that allowed several transnational oil and gas companies to operate in Venezuela despite the country being under US sanctions.After US energy giant Chevron, Washington has ordered a handful of other energy firms, including Spain’s Repsol and France’s Maurel & Prom, to cease operating in Venezuela.Trump, who is seeking to force out authoritarian President Nicolas Maduro, has also announced plans for 25 percent tariffs on imports from any country buying Venezuelan oil and gas.What’s next for the struggling Caribbean country, which has the world’s largest-known oil reserves but has become increasingly isolated since July 2024 elections that President Nicolas Maduro is accused of stealing?- Will the oil stop flowing? -In 2019, during his first term in office, Trump imposed an embargo on Venezuelan oil in response to 2018 elections that were already marred by fraud allegations.Venezuela’s state-owned PDVSA oil giant was in freefall at the time, beset by corruption scandals, mismanagement and a crippling lack of investment. Oil output buckled under the weight of the sanctions, falling from around three million barrels per day at the start of the 2000s to below 400,000 b/d in 2020.The sector recovered some ground after former US president Joe Biden in 2022 eased the sanctions in return for a promise by Maduro to allow fair elections.Biden later reimposed most sanctions when it became clear that Maduro was not keeping his side of the bargain, but allowed Chevron to continue operations.Today, Venezuela produces around 900,000 barrels per day of which Chevron contributes about 220,000, Repsol about 60,000, and Maurel & Prom between 20,000 and 25,000.Washington has given Chevron and the other companies until May 27 to wind up their operations.”PDVSA …now has some operational capacity, although we don’t know how big it is,” Gilberto Morillo, PDVSA’s former financial manager told AFP.- Who will buy it? -Even if PDVSA manages to keep pumping oil, finding a way to monetize it “is another matter,” Morillo said, pointing to the threatened 25-percent US tariffs on countries that buy its crude.In February, Venezuela exported approximately 500,000 barrels per day to China, 240,000 to the United States, and 70,000 to India and Spain. In the past, sanctions forced PDVSA to discount the oil and to find partners to circumvent the sanctions.Caracas also attempted to trade crude oil through a cryptocurrency scheme, which ended with then oil minister Tareck El Aissami being jailed for corruption in a case that cost the country more than $15 billion, according to media reports.- What impact for the economy? -The situation looks set to pile further misery on an economy already in tatters.The price of dollars has soared on the black market as Venezuelans fear falling oil revenue will trigger another bout of hyperinflation and a return to the kind of deep recession the country experienced between 2014 and 2021.The forced pullout of gas producers could also have an impact on the country’s crumbling energy infrastructure, leading to more blackouts.Repsol pointed out that 85 percent of its operations in Venezuela were related to the production of natural gas, which it warned “supports part of the electricity network.”The cancellation of the licenses will prevent PDVSA from using oil to pay the foreign energy companies for gas, as it had been doing, Morillo explained.”If PDVSA can’t pay them, then it generates a debt,” he said.But if the energy firms decide “ok, we’ll close down and leave…they would lose their entire investment,” he argued.

OpenAI says it raised $40 bn at valuation of $300 bn

OpenAI on Monday said it raised $40 billion in a new funding round that valued the ChatGPT maker at $300 billion, the biggest capital-raising session ever for a startup.The infusion of cash comes in a partnership with Japanese investment giant SoftBank Group and “enables us to push the frontiers of AI research even further,” the San Francisco-based company said in a post on its website.”Their support will help us continue building AI systems that drive scientific discovery, enable personalized education, enhance human creativity, and pave the way toward AGI (artificial general intelligence) that benefits all of humanity,” the company said.AGI refers to a computing platform with human-level intelligence.SoftBank said in a release that it is on a mission to realize Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) that surpasses human intelligence, and that OpenAI is the partner closest to achieving that goal.”The advancement of OpenAI’s AI models is key to achieving AGI and ASI, and massive computing power is essential,” SoftBank stated in its rationale for the latest investment in the company.SoftBank is to pump $10 billion into OpenAI to start, and $30 billion more by the end of this year pending certain conditions.OpenAI plans to scale its infrastructure and “deliver increasingly powerful tools for the 500 million people who use ChatGPT every week.”- Opening up? -The funding news came the same day OpenAI announced it was building a more open generative AI model as it faces growing competition in the open-source space from Chinese rival DeepSeek, and Meta.The move would mark a strategic shift by OpenAI, which until now has been a fierce defender of closed, proprietary models that do not allow developers to modify the basic technology to make AI more adapted to their goals.OpenAI and defenders of closed models — which include Google — have often decried open models as riskier and more vulnerable to nefarious uses by malicious actors or non-US governments.OpenAI’s embrace of closed models has also been a bone of contention in its battles with former investor Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest person, who has called on OpenAI to honor the spirit of the company’s name and “return to the open-source, safety-focused force for good it once was.”Putting pressure on OpenAI, many large companies and governments have proved reluctant to build their AI products or services on models they have no control over, especially when data security is a concern.The core selling point of Meta’s family of Llama models or DeepSeek’s models is addressing these worries by letting companies download their models, and have far greater control to modify the technology for their own purposes and keep control of their data.Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said earlier this month that Llama hit one billion downloads, while the release of DeepSeek’s lower-cost R1 model in January rocked the world of artificial intelligence.”We’ve been thinking about this for a long time, but other priorities took precedence. Now it feels important to do,” OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman said on X of the decision to build a more open model.OpenAI has been riding on the success of its latest image-generation features in ChatGPT, the world-leading AI app and chatbot.Altman posted on Monday that the tool helped add “one million users” in one hour.That claim came days after Altman said the new image features were so popular that they were melting the OpenAI graphics processing units that power the AI due to heavy use.

Safely back on Earth, once-stranded US astronauts ready to fly again

After spending more than nine months stranded in space, two American astronauts confirmed Monday that they’re ready to blast off again aboard a Boeing Starliner, the very spacecraft that could not return them to Earth.In their first NASA press conference since their long-awaited splashdown on March 18, astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams responded to the question of whether they would ride with Boeing again.”Yes, because we’re gonna rectify all the issues that we encountered. We’re gonna fix it. We’re gonna make it work,” said Wilmore.Williams, who co-led the test flight of the Boeing spacecraft agreed, saying “the spacecraft is really capable.””There were a couple things that need to be fixed, like Butch mentioned, and folks are actively working on that, but it’s, it is a great spacecraft, and it has a lot of capability that other spacecraft don’t have,” said Williams.After initial departure aboard the Starliner last June for an eight-day mission, Wilmore and Williams saw their stay on the International Space Station (ISS) extended as a result of malfunctions that were detected on the Boeing spacecraft.The technical problems prompted NASA to entrust the return of their astronauts to Elon Musk’s SpaceX, snubbing Boeing. The SpaceX spaceship returned to Earth safely March 18.”We are all responsible” for the problems encountered during the Starliner’s inaugural manned flight, Wilmore insisted, saying he prefers to look forward.While the stranded astronauts earned a great deal of public interest, the incident also drew political attention with US President Donald Trump accusing his predecessor Joe Biden of deliberately “abandoning” the astronauts, while pledging to rescue them. Without revisiting the political controversy, the astronauts reiterated Monday that they had been prepared for the unexpected delay in their return.”I’m very thankful that people are paying attention,” Williams said. “There’s some lessons learned to it, and part of that is just resilience and being able to take a turn that was unexpected and make the best of it.”

Trump ‘happy’ that Tiger Woods is dating former daughter-in-law

Donald Trump said Monday he hopes Tiger Woods and his former daughter-in-law will be happy together in their relationship, describing the golf superstar as “a fantastic guy.”Woods — renowned for guarding his private life over the years — last week confirmed tabloid rumors that he was dating Vanessa Trump, who split from Donald Trump Jr. during his father’s first term in the Oval Office.The US president told reporters in Washington on Monday he was delighted that she had found love again.”Tiger actually called me a few months ago, and we have a very special, very good relationship with Tiger,” he said.”I played golf with him a couple of times over the last month, and he’s a fantastic guy and a fantastic athlete, and he told me about it, and I said ‘Tiger, that’s good,'” Trump continued.”I’m very happy for both, I just, let them both be happy. Let them both be happy. They’re both great.”The presidential seal of approval comes after Woods took to social media to post photos of him and his new beau.”Love is in the air and life is better with you by my side,” he wrote in a caption above two pictures of the couple relaxing together.Vanessa Trump, who divorced Donald Trump Jr. in 2018 after a 13-year marriage, also posted a picture of her and Woods together on her Instagram account in what appeared to be a coordinated announcement.Woods’ private life was laid bare during the 2009 sex scandal that upended his career and led to the implosion of his six-year marriage to Elin Nordegren, the mother of his two children.Nordegren and Woods separated amid revelations of the golf star’s serial infidelity, with reports suggesting he had slept with as many as 120 women during their marriage.

US robbers who touted crime on Instagram jailed

Bumbling robbers who left behind a cell phone during a $2.6 million heist and later boasted on Instagram about being part of a criminal gang have been jailed in California, authorities said Monday.The three men used sledgehammers and crowbars to target an upscale jewelery store in Beverly Hills, making off with a huge haul of necklaces, bracelets and watches in the 2022 raid.The daylight robbery — which happened in full view of staff and customers — began when Ladell Tharpe, 39, and his two accomplices careered up to the store in a convoy of vehicles, one of which had been stolen days earlier.The US Department of Justice said during the terrifying attack, a cell phone fell out of a sweatpants pocket worn by one of the robbers — identified as 33-year-old Jimmy Lee Vernon — handing investigators a ready clue.But the probe was also given a boost by Tharpe’s brazenness.”Two days after the heist, Tharpe posted images of large amounts of cash on his Instagram with the text ‘Robbery Gang,'” federal prosecutors said.Vernon and Deshon Bell, 22, admitted one count of robbery in relation to the heist when they appeared in court in February last year.Bell was jailed for a year, while Vernon was sent to prison for six years and eight months.Tharpe was sentenced Monday to serve seven years in federal prison, after earlier admitting robbery.”Brazen criminal action that directly targets our small businesses in Los Angeles County will not be tolerated,” said Acting United States Attorney Joseph McNally. “The consequences for such action are severe and penalized accordingly.”

World economies brace for Trump tariffs deadline

US trading partners struggled Monday to prepare for a fresh onslaught of Donald Trump tariffs with the US president keeping everyone guessing as to precisely who he will target on what he’s calling  “Liberation Day” this week.Trump — who has been making unprecedented use of presidential powers since taking office in January — is set to announce Wednesday exactly what “reciprocal tariffs” will be imposed and whether he might also target entire sectors.The Republican billionaire insists that reciprocal action is needed because the world’s biggest economy has been “ripped off by every country in the world.”Critics, however, warn that the strategy risks a global trade war, provoking a chain reaction of retaliation by major trading partners including China, Canada and the European Union.Already, China, South Korea and Japan agreed Sunday to strengthen free trade between themselves ahead of Trump’s expected tariff announcement.White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that the goal on Wednesday would be to announce “country-based tariffs,” but that Trump remains committed to imposing separate sector-specific charges.”Any country that has treated the American people unfairly should expect to receive a tariff in return on Wednesday,” Leavitt said.The uncertainty has jolted markets with key European and Asian indexes closing lower, although the Dow and broad-based S&P 500 eked out gains.Market nervousness intensified after Trump said Sunday his tariffs would include “all countries.”The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that advisers have considered imposing global tariffs of up to 20 percent, to hit almost all US trading partners. Trump remained vague, saying his tariffs would be “far more generous” than ones already levied against US products.- ‘Economic pain’ -Trump’s fixation on tariffs is fanning US recession fears. Goldman Sachs analysts raised their 12-month recession probability from 20 percent to 35 percent.This reflects a “lower growth forecast, falling confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating willingness to tolerate economic pain.” Goldman Sachs also lifted its forecast for underlying inflation at end-2025.China and Canada have imposed counter-tariffs on US goods, while the EU unveiled its own measures due to start in mid-April. More countermeasures could come after Wednesday.For now, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said at a Reuters event Monday that Trump’s tariffs are causing anxiety although their global economic impact should not be dramatic.Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics said to “expect the unexpected,” anticipating that Trump would “take aim at some of the largest offenders.”What matters is how broad-based Trump’s tariffs are and whether the tool is merely a negotiating tactic or part of a more major shift, he said.Besides reciprocal country tariffs, Trump could unveil additional sector-specific levies on the likes of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. He earlier announced auto tariffs to take effect Thursday.Economists have expected the upcoming salvo could target the 15 percent of partners that have persistent trade imbalances with the United States, a group that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dubbed a “Dirty 15.”The United States has some of its biggest goods deficits with China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Canada and India.- ‘Existential moment’ -US trade partners are rushing to minimize their exposure, with reports suggesting India might lower some duties.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said Monday that Europe should move towards economic independence, telling France Inter radio that Europe faces an “existential moment.”Separately, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke with Trump on “productive negotiations” towards a UK-US trade deal, his Downing Street office said Sunday.German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the EU would respond firmly to Trump’s tariffs, but stressed that the bloc was open to compromise.It is “entirely possible” for fresh tariffs to be swiftly reduced or put on hold, said Greta Peisch, partner at law firm Wiley Rein.In February, Washington paused steep levies on Mexican and Canadian imports for a month as the North American neighbors pursued negotiations.”There are many different scenarios: delays while talks continue, potential reductions or tariffs being put in place immediately,” added Peisch, a former official at the US Trade Representative’s office.

Canada candidates promise less reliance on US a month before vote

A month before Canadians vote in an election dominated by threats from US President Donald Trump, leading candidates pledged Monday to build an economy that can thrive without depending on its southern neighbor.Prime Minister Mark Carney, who replaced Justin Trudeau this month, appears to have revitalized his Liberal Party, which just months ago looked headed towards a crushing electoral defeat.Most polls ahead of the April 28 election show Carney’s Liberals slightly ahead of the Conservatives, whose leader Pierre Poilievre has struggled, experts say, to adjust his message in response to Trump.The US president has repeatedly spoken about annexing Canada while pushing an array of tariffs that could force America’s northern neighbor and largest trading partner into recession. Campaigning outside Toronto on Monday, Carney said “Trump is trying to fundamentally restructure the US economy,” which will force Canada to “reimagine” its own.”We need to build a new Canadian economy, a more resilient economy that can succeed in what will be a drastically different world,” Carney said.Canada needs to be able to thrive “without any regard to what goes on in the United States,” he added.Poilievre built momentum over the past year by attacking an increasingly unpopular Trudeau and by promising to address core issues like affordability, notably soaring housing costs.His campaign has maintained a focus on rising costs but with added emphasis on Trump.”It is time to turn Canada into an economic fortress that puts our country first for a change,” he said Monday in the eastern province of New Brunswick.”With Donald Trump threatening our country with tariffs, we need big projects that link our regions, east to west. We need to be able to get our resources across Canada, bypassing America, so we can trade more with each other and sell our resources to the world.”- Cost of living -Julie Grignon, an account manager in the town of Magog in Quebec province, said Carney — who has never held elected office — was an unknown. “We don’t know his personality,” she told AFP on Sunday.But she said her top concern was how Canada’s economy can become more independent from the United States.”If anyone knows economics, it’s Carney,” the 55-year-old said.  The prime minister has argued his experience has prepared him to lead Canada through economic turmoil.He is a former investment banker at Goldman Sachs, and later governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.He also led the Bank of England through the Brexit vote and its aftermath. But Poilievre maintains Carney is offering a continuation of Trudeau, whom the Conservatives accuse of poor economic management. “President Trump has said he wants the Liberals back in power. We know why, because they will keep Canada weak and keep our investment flowing out of this country,” he said at a campaign stop on Sunday.In the border town of Sarnia on Monday, where concern is building ahead of further Trump tariff announcements expected this week, Conservative voter Paul Sonier said the Liberals have failed to control costs since Trudeau was first elected in 2015. “Look at what we have now as far as the price of everything. Who’s been in power for the last, I don’t know, 10 years?””It’s time for a change,” he told AFP. – ‘Looking for a savior’ -Ottawa University politics professor Genevieve Tellier said the election comes at a “truly exceptional time for Canada.”The country is “looking for a savior,” she told AFP. After Trump announced his planned auto tariffs last week, Carney declared that the era of deep economic, security and military ties between Canada and the United States “is over.”Tellier said Carney’s “firm tone” and explanation that “relations with the United States would never be the same again” seem to be resonating with voters. Those remarks have “captured the current mood in Canada,” she said.

Could Trump serve a third term? Probably not

President Donald Trump may be publicly musing about serving a third term in the White House but the 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution makes such a scenario highly unlikely.Trump, 78, said Sunday he was “not joking” about serving a third term as president and told NBC News there are “methods” that would allow it to happen.Most constitutional scholars disagree. And any serious effort to amend the founding document — which as currently written bars a president from serving a third term — would send the country into uncharted territory.- Presidential history -America’s first president, George Washington, set a precedent by stepping down after serving two terms in office but the two-term presidential limit was only formally codified more than 150 years later.Only one US president — Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt — has served more than two terms in the White House.Roosevelt was elected president four times — in 1932, 1936, 1940 and 1944. His fourth term ended prematurely with his April 12, 1945 death at age 63.Other former commanders in chief, notably Ulysses S. Grant and Theodore Roosevelt, have sought a third term in office but failed to win the nomination or re-election.Trump is only the second president to win a nonconsecutive term in office, having won in 2016, lost in 2020, and won again in 2024.The first was Grover Cleveland, who won in 1884, lost in 1888, and won in 1892.- 22nd Amendment -The 22nd Amendment limiting a president to two terms in office was passed in 1947 — two years after Roosevelt’s death — by two-thirds of the House of Representatives and two-thirds of the Senate.It was ratified by three-quarters of the 50 US state legislatures in 1951.The text states: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.”It also bars a president who has served more than two years “of a term to which some other person was elected President” from being elected again more than once.- Longshot resolution -During his presidential campaign and since taking office, Trump has jokingly speculated on several occasions about serving a third term.But his remarks over the weekend were his most detailed yet about the possibility and were punctuated by the phrase “I’m not joking.””A lot of people want me to do it,” the Republican president said.Trump was asked by NBC of a scenario whereby Vice President JD Vance would run for president in 2028 and then “pass the baton” to Trump as his running mate.”Well, that’s one. But there are others too,” Trump said, without elaborating.The 12th Amendment would seem to bar the door on that, however.”No person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States,” it states.In January, Republican lawmaker Andy Ogles of Tennessee introduced a long shot resolution in the House tailored to Trump that would allow a president who served nonconsecutive terms to serve a third term.A constitutional convention could also be convened to amend the US Constitution, but that is considered equally unlikely.At 82 years and seven months old, Trump will already be the oldest president ever at the end of his second term in January 2029.Democrat Joe Biden was 82 years and two months old when he left office in January.Despite the apparent difficulties of overcoming the constitutional two-term limit, punters have taken note of Trump’s comments, and his odds of winning the 2028 presidential race have jumped.According to offshore bookmaker BetOnline.ag, the odds of Trump securing a third term improved to six to one, up from 10 to one earlier, ranking him in second place behind current Vice President JD Vance among those who could win the election.