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US hiring beats expectations in March as tariff uncertainty brews

Hiring in the United States was stronger than expected in March, government data showed Friday, even as uncertainty brewed over the wider effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and other policies.The world’s biggest economy added 228,000 jobs last month, much more than analysts anticipated and significantly above February’s revised 117,000 figure, said the Department of Labor.The jobless rate meanwhile edged up to 4.2 percent, from 4.1 percent in February.Trump said in a social media post that these were “great job numbers, far better than expected.””It’s already working,” he added, referring to his policies.”The President’s push to onshore jobs here in the United States is working,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a separate statement, pointing to job growth in areas like transportation.Since January, the Trump administration has embarked on wide-ranging job cuts to the federal government, while the president also unleashed steep tariffs targeting allies and adversaries alike.But economists expect it will take time for the full effects of his policies to ripple through the economy, warning of higher consumer prices and an impact on growth.The hiring number showed that the jobs market remained robust for now, and it was notably above the 130,000 figure that analysts expected, according to Briefing.com.Sectors that saw job gains included health care and social assistance, as well as retail trade — “partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike,” the report said.But federal government employment declined by 4,000 in March, following the loss of 11,000 jobs in February.Average hourly earnings grew 0.3 percent in March to $36.00, picking up slightly from February’s pace.- Tariff shock -“In light of the tariff announcements this week and the sharp drop in stock markets around the world in response, these data are likely not capturing the moment with respect to the actual strength of the economy,” warned chief economist Mike Fratantoni of the Mortgage Bankers Association.Looking ahead, economists are monitoring the effects of sweeping tariffs that Trump imposed on some of the biggest US trading partners in March, alongside even broader action set to take effect in April.On Wednesday, Trump announced a 10 percent tariff on most US trading partners, set to take effect Saturday.”The impact of these tariffs is unknown but most economists would say this is a huge disruption,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America.”It’s the uncertainty itself that is now a driving force economically,” he told AFP.Apart from adding to consumer costs in the near-term, North expects the tariffs could also “put a damper on job growth” and weigh on the labor market as well.

Where things stand in the US-China trade war

China has hit back against US President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs, slapping 34 percent levies on all imports of American goods.AFP looks at how an escalating trade war between the United States and China is playing out — and what impact it might have.- Why is China so vulnerable to tariffs? – Trade between the world’s two largest economies is vast.Sales of Chinese goods to the United States last year totalled more than $500 billion — 16.4 percent of the country’s exports, according to Beijing’s customs data.And China imported $143.5 billion in goods from the United States in 2024, according to the office of the US Trade Representative.But China has long drawn Trump’s ire with a trade surplus with the United States that reached $295.4 billion last year, according to the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.Beijing’s leaders have been reluctant to disrupt the status quo, in part because China’s export-driven economy is particularly sensitive to vicissitudes in international trade.US duties also threaten to harm China’s fragile economic recovery as it struggles with a long-running debt crisis in the property sector and persistently low consumption — a downturn Beijing had sought to slow with broad fiscal stimulus last year.But an intensified trade war will likely mean China cannot peg its hopes for strong economic growth this year on its exports, which reached record highs in 2024.”The US tariffs on Chinese imports announced so far this year could fully negate the lift from the fiscal stimulus measures announced so far,” Frederic Neumann, Chief Asia Economist at HSBC, told AFP.- What impact will the new US tariffs have? -Trump’s new tariffs slap 10 percent levies on imports from around the world.But China has been hit particularly hard — the latest salvo adds 34 percent to a 20 percent rate imposed last month, bringing the total additional tariffs on imports from the Asian economic powerhouse imposed by this Trump administration to 54 percent.The tariffs come into effect in stages — a 10 percentage point bump on Thursday, followed by the full levy on April 9.China is also under sector-specific tariffs on steel, aluminium and car imports.Analysts expect the new levies to take a significant chunk out of the country’s GDP, which Beijing’s leadership hope will grow five percent this year.Julian Evans-Pritchard, Head of China Economics at Capital Economics, said in a note he expects the economic hit to range from 0.5 to one percent of GDP.Likely to be hit hardest are China’s top exports to the United States — the country is the dominant supplier of goods from electronics and electrical machinery to textiles and clothing, according to the Peterson Institute of International Economics.And analysts also warn that because of the crucial role Chinese goods play in supplying US firms, the tariffs may also have major knock-on effects. “US imports from China are dominated by capital goods and industrial materials instead of consumer goods,” Gene Ma, Head of China Research at the Institute of International Finance, told AFP.”The tariff will hurt US manufacturers as well as consumers.””This trade war not only has a destructive impact on China but also on the global trade system,” Chen Wenling, Chief Economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges in Beijing, said.- How has Beijing responded? -Beijing made good on its vow of “countermeasures” against the United States on Friday, slapping 34 percent levies on all US products coming into the country in measures that will take effect next Thursday.It also said it would impose export controls on a number of rare earth elements used in medical technology and consumer electronics.US exports to China last year were dominated by agricultural products, primarily oilseeds and grains, according to the US-China Business Council.Oil and gas closely follows, with pharmaceuticals and semiconductors also among major exports.In 2022, the Council said, over 900,000 American jobs were supported by US exports of goods and services to China.Those measures come on top of tariffs imposed by Beijing last month — 15 percent on imports of coal and liquefied natural gas from the United States and 10 percent on crude oil, agricultural machinery, big-engined vehicles and pickup trucks.Analysts say those moves are designed to hit Trump’s support base — those in rural US heartlands that voted him into office last year.Beijing has called for “dialogue” to resolve the dispute, but any deal will take time.”There are still chances for the two parties to resume talks in the following months,” Betty Wang at Oxford Economics told AFP.”But historical experience suggests that tariffs are typically quick to rise and slow to fall.”

Japan PM says Trump tariffs a ‘national crisis’

US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Japanese goods are a “national crisis”, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Friday ahead of cross-party talks on mitigating the impact on the heavily export-dependent economy.Japanese firms are the biggest investors into the United States but Trump on Thursday announced a hefty 24 percent levy on imports from the close US ally as part of global “reciprocal” levies.The measures “can be called a national crisis and the government is doing its best with all parties” to lessen the impact, Ishiba said in parliament.He called however for a “calm-headed” approach to negotiations with Trump, who has also imposed 25 percent tariffs on auto imports which came into force this week.Local media reported Friday that Japanese officials were attempting to organise a call between Ishiba and Trump, who held apparently friendly talks at the White House in February.Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya “strongly demanded” to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in talks in Brussels on Thursday that the “extremely regrettable” measures be reviewed, Tokyo said.Japan’s main Nikkei 225 index fell 2.75 percent on Friday, adding to a 2.7 percent drop on Thursday after the S&P 500 on Wall Street dropped by the most in a day since 2020.Ishiba told ministers “to take all measures necessary including financing support” for domestic industries and protecting jobs, government spokesman Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters.Ishiba’s meetings with party leaders later Friday were aimed at laying the groundwork for the supplementary budget, the Asahi Shimbun daily reported.- ‘Extremely grave’ -The Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (JCCI) said Trump’s tariffs “would have an extremely grave impact on the Japanese economy”.”We strongly urge the government to continue its persistent negotiations for the exemption from tariff measures and to take all possible measures to minimise the impact on small and medium-sized enterprises and small businesses… by developing a detailed consultation system and strengthening cash management support,” the JCCI said Thursday.The Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) also called for “comprehensive support measures to ensure that Japan’s automotive industry can maintain its foundation as a manufacturing base”.JAMA said its members have invested a cumulative total of more than $66 billion in US manufacturing as of 2024, generating over 110,000 direct US jobs and supporting more than 2.2 million others.Japanese carmakers ship about 1.45 million cars to the United States from Canada and Mexico, where they operate factories, Bloomberg News reported.By comparison, Japan exports 1.49 million cars directly to the United States, while Japanese automakers make 3.3 million cars in America.- ‘Incomprehensible’ -The US deficit with Japan was almost $70 billion last year. Japan mostly exports to the United States vehicles, auto parts, machinery, and electrical and electronic equipment.US imports the other way are mostly chemicals, plastics, rubber, and leather goods, as well as agriculture products and oil and cement.The White House has said that Japan has a 700 percent tariff on US rice imports, a claim Japan’s farm minister called “incomprehensible”, local media reported.In Japan, the auto sector employs about 5.6 million people directly or indirectly.Vehicles accounted for around 28 percent of Japan’s 21.3 trillion yen ($142 billion) of US-bound exports last year.BMI (Fitch Solutions) estimated that in a worst-case scenario, there could be a hit of 0.7 percentage points to Japan’s economy this year.Capital Economics was less pessimistic, predicting a “quite small” impact of perhaps just 0.2 percent, saying that “Japan isn’t all that dependent on US demand”.

Trump unveils first $5 million ‘gold card’ visa

US President Donald Trump unveiled the first “gold card”, a residency permit sold for $5 million each, aboard Air Force One on Thursday.Holding a prototype that bore his face and an inscription “The Trump Card”, the Republican president told reporters that the special visa would probably be available “in less than two weeks”.”I’m the first buyer,” he said. “Pretty exciting, huh?”Trump previously said that sales of the new visa, a high-price version of the traditional green card, would bring in job creators and could be used to reduce the US national deficit.The billionaire former real estate tycoon, who has made the deportation of millions of undocumented migrants a priority for his second term, said the new card would be a route to highly prized US citizenship.He said in February that his administration hoped to sell “maybe a million” of the cards and did not rule out that Russian oligarchs may be eligible.

Pacific nations perplexed, worried by Trump tariffs

Pacific island nations hit hardest by US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs are querying the “unfair” impost, and they are fearful of the impact.The United States has punished Fiji, Vanuatu and tiny Nauru for running trade surpluses with the economic superpower, slapping them with duties far above its new 10-percent baseline.Besides squeezing their finances, analysts say the US levies are making Pacific countries wary of their historic ally, which has already cut humanitarian aid programmes.”It’s just another reason to have less trust in the US, stacked on top of the US aid freeze,” said Blake Johnson, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute think tank.It also creates opportunities for China to expand its ties from aid to trade, he said, as Beijing vies with the United States and its allies for influence in the geographically strategic region.Among the Pacific countries’ biggest sellers in the United States are the traditional narcotic kava drink, and spring water under the brand Fiji Water — owned by Los Angeles-based The Wonderful Company.The 22-percent tariffs on Vanuatu are expected to impact exports and hurt kava farmers, a spokesperson for the prime minister said.-‘Just suck them up’ -Vanuatu was hit by the tariffs after running a US$6.6 million surplus in its trade of goods with the United States last year, according to UN data. Jonathan Naupa, owner of Vanuatu kava exporter Mount Kava, said demand for kava was high and he had no plans to cut prices for the US market.”We are going to keep our prices right where they are — the American public can just suck them up,” he told AFP, adding that there was a growing global market for kava exports.He welcomed Trump’s move.”I actually think it’s a good thing that he’s done this because it will make the Americans realise that they need to treat our cultural product with a bit more respect,” he said.”With the shortage of kava in Vanuatu, I don’t see prices going down, and I hope my fellow exporters also try to follow suit and not drop their prices.”Nauru’s main exports include the remnants of its once-vast phosphate deposits and the sale of fishing rights, but it was not clear what made up its 2024 goods trade surplus with the United States of $1.4 million — about the price of a one-bedroom apartment in Manhattan.It faces a 30-percent US trade tariff.Fiji runs a larger surplus in the trade of goods with the United States of about $252 million helped by exports of  Fiji Water, kava and fish, and it now faces a 32-percent tariff across the board.- ‘Unfair’ -The beach-fringed tourist magnet says it applies zero or five-percent duty on 96 percent of US imports.Trump’s levy “is quite disproportionate and unfair”, Finance Minister Biman Prasad said in a statement.”We are still trying to get more details on the exact rationale and application of the newly announced retaliatory tariff by the US and will work with our key stakeholders and US counterparts to get this,” he said.Roland Rajah, director of the Indo-Pacific Development Centre at the Lowy Institute think tank, said the tariffs were based on the scale of US trade deficits with each country.But it makes economic sense to have a trade deficit with some countries and a surplus with others, he said.”It’s not necessarily driven by particular policy distortions,” Rajah added, making it hard for countries to find a basis for trade talks with the United States.”The other factor for the Pacific is that being small countries and quite small trading partners in the world it might be very difficult for them to get a hearing with the Trump administration, who will have bigger fish to fry at the current moment.”Papua New Guinea, the most populous Pacific island country, said it had no plans to retaliate against the US decision to impose a 10-percent tariff.”We will continue to strengthen our trade relations in Asia and the Pacific, where our produce is welcomed,” Prime Minister James Marape said in a statement.”If the US market becomes more difficult due to this tariff, we will simply redirect our goods to markets where there is mutual respect and no artificial barriers.”

TikTok must find non-Chinese owner by Saturday to avert US ban

TikTok on Friday was hours from a deadline to find a non-Chinese owner or face a ban in the United States.The hugely popular video-sharing app, which has more than 170 million American users, is under threat from a US law that passed overwhelmingly last year and orders TikTok to split from its Chinese owner ByteDance or get shut down in the United States.US President Donald Trump on Thursday said his administration was “very close” to a deal to find a buyer for TikTok, adding that it involved “multiple” investors but giving no further details.Motivated by national security fears and widespread belief in Washington that TikTok is ultimately controlled by the Chinese government, the law took effect on January 19, one day before Trump’s inauguration.In the hours before that deadline, TikTok temporarily shut down in the United States and disappeared from app stores, to the dismay of millions of users.But the Republican president quickly announced a 75-day delay and TikTok subsequently restored service to existing users, returning to the Apple and Google app stores in February.That delay is set to expire at midnight (0400 GMT) on April 5, but Trump has repeatedly downplayed risks that TikTok is in danger, saying he remains confident of finding a buyer for the app’s US business.The president also suggested TikTok could even be part of a broader deal with China to ease the stinging tariffs he imposed on Beijing as part of a worldwide blitz of levies.Asked Thursday if he was willing to make deals with countries on tariffs, he said: “As long as they are giving us something that is good. For instance with TikTok.””We have a situation with TikTok where China will probably say we’ll approve a deal but will you do something on the tariffs. The tariffs give us great power to negotiate,” he added.According to reports, the most likely solution would see existing US investors in ByteDance roll over their stakes into a new independent global TikTok company.Additional US investors, including Oracle and Blackstone, the private equity firm, would be brought on to reduce the proportion of Chinese investors.Much of TikTok’s US activity is already housed on Oracle servers, and the company’s chairman, Larry Ellison, is a longtime Trump ally.- What about the algorithm? -But uncertainty remains, particularly over what would happen to TikTok’s valuable algorithm. The New York Times suggested the new company could licence it from ByteDance.The arrangement would however go against the spirit of the law, which is in part based on the premise that TikTok’s algorithm can be weaponized by the Chinese against US interests.Amazon has also reportedly made a last-minute bid to buy TikTok.Other proposals include an initiative called “The People’s Bid for TikTok,” launched by real estate and sports tycoon Frank McCourt’s Project Liberty initiative.Artificial intelligence startup Perplexity recently expressed interest in buying TikTok, as did a joint venture involving YouTube mega-celebrity MrBeast.Trump, though he supported a ban in his first term, has lately become a TikTok defender, seeing it as a reason more young voters supported him in November’s election.One of his major political donors, billionaire Jeff Yass, is a major stakeholder in parent company ByteDance.

Trump tariffs to test resiliency of US consumers

In unveiling tariffs this week challenging the decades-old international trade order, President Donald Trump lambasted globalization as a raw deal for the United States that has devastated US manufacturing towns.Trump left out the upside to the United States from the liberal flow of goods: a reliable supply of affordably priced appliances, clothing and electronics whose consumption has helped lift US economic growth above other developed economies in recent years.”Obviously we’ve benefited significantly,” said Paul Gruenwald, global chief economist at S&P Global Ratings. “We get to consume a lot of things that are produced more efficiently in other countries.”Trump’s tariffs are almost certain to negatively impact this dynamic, say economists who see the levies lifting the price on everything from Gap t-shirts to the Apple iPhone to French wine.”This is very clearly going to raise consumer prices,” Michael Pearce, a US economist with Oxford Economics, said of the barrage of levies announced late Wednesday in an unveiling the White House billed as “liberation day.”Winners in Trump’s policy include communities that benefit from reshored manufacturing, while losers include export-focused industries like plane manufacturing and pharmaceuticals if there are retaliatory tariffs, Pearce said. But imports represent only about 14 percent of US gross domestic product, while exports account for 11 percent — figures that are even lower if energy is taken out. Moreover, goods account for one-third of US consumption compared with services, which comprise the rest.”The net impact on the US economy may be surprisingly small given the headlines we’re seeing,” said Pearce, who warned that Trump’s levies could end up disproportionately hurting low-income consumers if the tariffs are paired with tax cuts that benefit the wealthy.Gruenwald, who described US consumer resiliency as a core strength in recent times, said S&P will lower the US outlook somewhat amid a higher inflation outlook for 2025. But he said the trade war “wouldn’t move the needle” in the short-term “for a big economy like the United States.”- More ‘friction’ ahead -Trump’s Wednesday White House event unveiled levies on dozens of countries including all major US trading partners. These included the imposition of 20 percent levies on the European Union, 24 percent on Japan and an additional 34 percent on goods from China — bringing the new added tariff rate there to 54 percent. Trump cast the event in historic terms, saying Wednesday “will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn” and the country turned the page on globalization.”For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike,” he said.A day after the announcement, commentators cautioned that the president’s history of sometimes quickly shifting on tariffs meant that the proposed levies could be altered after bargaining with other governments, which could lean on big companies to lift investments in the United States. In any case, economists predicted the shift would lessen trade between the United States and other countries, but not end it.”There will be a lot more friction,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, a consultancy, who predicted the underlying structure around trade and capital flows will be maintained.Brusuelas said the United States has been the “big winner” under globalization, but predicted growth “won’t be as exceptional.” “Europe and Asia will narrow the gap,” Brusuelas added, calling them “places where the state plays a more central role in constraining the movement of goods and capital.”Pearce said Trump’s unpredictability on trade would lead to reduced capital spending by firms in the short run and that the broad tilt against trade will be “slightly negative” for the US economy in the long run.Gruenwald pointed to the risk of reduced competition.Globalization forced US companies “to deal with foreign competition,” Gruenwald said. “If we kind of seal off that competition, there’s a risk these nice productivity numbers could decline.”

‘Frightening’: US restaurants, producers face tariff whiplash

From European wines to industrial tools, global tariffs launched by US President Donald Trump this week promise to sweep through the world’s biggest economy, impacting everyone from restaurant owners to industrial manufacturers.For Brett Gitter, who makes his quality control instruments in China-based factories, Trump’s planned tariff hike on goods from the country marks a further price surge to potentially startling levels for customers.”I add a surcharge at the bottom of every invoice to cover the expense of the tariff,” he told AFP.”The bottom of the invoice now is going to say 54 percent,” he added, referring to a new rate hitting Chinese imports starting next Wednesday.All of this stacks on an existing 25 percent rate Chinese imports already faced before Trump returned to the presidency, he said, although he tried to absorb some of the earlier duties.”That’s a lot,” he added. “That’s going to alarm people.”This week, Trump unveiled a sweeping 10 percent tariff on most US trading partners, set to take effect on Saturday.He declared that foreign trade practices have caused a “national emergency,” imposing levies to boost his country’s position.Additionally, “worst offenders” that have large trade imbalances with the United States will face even higher rates come April 9.The list covers about 60 partners including the European Union, China, India and Japan.Gitter said his customers, who are American manufacturers too, will have to decide if they want to foot the higher bill.”Other countries that have similar types of product have added tariffs too,” he said. “Where does my product made in China fit, and how bad does it take a hit compared to other competitors?”- ‘Frightening’ -Andrew Fortgang, who runs three restaurants and a wine shop in Oregon, worries about Trump’s additional 20 percent tariff on European Union imports — specifically, wine.The rate is also taking effect April 9.”Probably 25 percent of our revenue is from imported wine,” he told AFP, noting that the steep tariff will bite.For these sales to vanish would be “really frightening,” he said.Beyond that, “everything from oil, to mustards, cheeses, and meats, they are just not fungible, they are not made here,” Fortgang said. “It’s going to add up.”While he expects he would be forced to pass on some costs to consumers by hiking menu prices, high inflation after the Covid-19 pandemic have weighed on customers.”You’ll kind of reach a tipping point,” he said, “on how much you can raise prices.”US Wine Trade Alliance president Ben Aneff called the plan “a disaster for small businesses.””Restaurants really rely on large margins in order to effectively subsidize the rest of their business,” he said, adding that consumers will likely see higher prices.”We import about $4.5 billion worth of (wine) from the EU and US businesses make almost $25 billion from those imports. There is no plug for that hole,” he told AFP.Others in the food and beverages sector have already been hit by Trump’s multiple waves of tariffs.Bill Butcher, a craft brewer in Virginia, earlier saw a shortage of glass bottles for his beers when metals tariffs took effect in March — as industry giants pivoted away from aluminum cans to avoid added costs.Now, he awaits suppliers’ verdict on how much the incoming tariffs on European goods will add to costs for the grains and hops needed in his brews.”It’s just a lot of uncertainty and chaos in our supply chain,” he said.- Hard to relocate -Gitter, whose business is based in New Jersey, has tried “many times” to relocate production to the United States.”There’s a lack of infrastructure in the US to support what we do,” he said.The printed circuit boards used in his instruments, for example, require chips made in East Asia.Will Thomas, whose company transforms coils of steel into metal products, added: “We import from necessity, not desire.”While he is not hard hit by Trump’s partner-based tariffs this week, earlier 25 percent duties on steel and aluminum imports have eaten away at his profits.”I’m hoping this is not another nail in the coffin for foreign supply,” Thomas said.”I would just like the leaders of the countries to be able to sit down and work things out.”

Trump purges national security team after meeting conspiracist

Donald Trump fired several US national security officials after a far-right conspiracy theorist questioned their loyalty in a White House meeting with the president, US media reported Thursday.Influencer Laura Loomer, who is known for claiming that the 9/11 terrorist attacks were an inside job, laid out her concerns to Trump on Wednesday, the New York Times said in a report followed up by other outlets.The reported purge comes as the National Security Council (NSC) faces scrutiny over a scandal in which a journalist was accidentally added to a chat on the Signal app in which officials discussed air strikes on Yemen.Six people from the NSC were sacked after the Loomer meeting, including three senior officials on the body which advises the president on top foreign policy matters from Ukraine to Gaza, the New York Times said.Loomer confirmed the meeting, but said on X that “out of respect for President Trump and the privacy of the Oval Office, I’m going to decline on divulging any details.”The activist later said she had presented “opposition research” to the Republican president.Asked about the report of the firings, Trump later told reporters: “We’re always going to let go of people — people we don’t like or people that take advantage of or people that may have loyalties to someone else.”Trump described Loomer as a “great patriot” but said she was “not at all” involved with the reported NSC firings.”She makes recommendations… and sometimes I listen to those recommendations,” he told reporters on Air Force One.NSC spokesman Brian Hughes told AFP the council “doesn’t comment on personnel matters.”The 31-year-old Loomer often flew with Trump on his campaign plane during the 2024 election.She sparked accusations of racism when she said on social media that Trump’s Democratic rival Kamala Harris — whose mother was of Indian descent — would make the White House “smell like curry” if she won.In recent days Loomer has repeatedly targeted national security official Alex Wong — who was reportedly not among those sacked — over the so-called “Signalgate” scandal that has rocked the White HouseShe baselessly suggested that he was responsible for accidentally adding Atlantic magazine journalist Jeffrey Goldberg to the chat, even though National Security Advisor Mike Waltz has taken responsibility for the error.Trump has resisted calls to sack Waltz over the issue. Waltz was seen boarding Trump’s helicopter as the president left the White House for a trip to Florida on Thursday.But US media have reported that Waltz is considered by some in Trump’s orbit as too tied to neo-conservative policies, rather than Trump’s “America First” approach.