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Divers scoured for the remaining bodies from the Washington plane crash Friday as President Donald Trump posted his own politicized verdict on the deadliest US air disaster in almost a quarter century, with the investigation barely underway.Forty-one victims have been pulled from the icy depths of the Potomac River, and rescuers voiced confidence that the other 26 would be retrieved in the massive operation to recover the passenger jet that collided in midair with a Black Hawk military helicopter Wednesday night.”Our dive teams are working in targeted areas and additional Coast Guard assets will arrive this afternoon. The salvage crews… are assessing the work that’s going to be needed to recover the aircraft from the water,” Washington Fire Chief John Donnelly told a news conference at Reagan National Airport, outside the US capital.”We expect those operations to begin no later than tomorrow afternoon.”He told reporters that lifting the aircraft’s fuselage out of the river would likely reveal the remaining bodies, adding: “If it doesn’t, we will continue the search.”Authorities are also looking for the helicopter’s black box after retrieving the cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder from the Bombardier jet operated by an American Airlines subsidiary. As the Federal Aviation Administration restricted helicopter flights to reduce the risk of another collision, the gruesome physical search ran parallel with a complex technical analysis of what went wrong.The airliner was coming in to land at Reagan National Airport — just a few miles from the White House — when it collided with a US Army helicopter on a training mission.The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is expected to compile a preliminary report within 30 days, although a full investigation could take a year.- ‘Disgusted’ -But the lack of clarity over the accident’s cause has not deterred Trump’s politicized commentary since the first moments after the plane — on a routine flight from Wichita, Kansas with 64 people aboard — struck the Black Hawk, carrying three.Trump was at it again Friday, posting on his Truth Social platform: “The Blackhawk helicopter was flying too high, by a lot. It was far above the 200 foot limit. That’s not really too complicated to understand, is it???”This followed a torrent of posts and a news conference Thursday where the Republican pinned the blame for the crash on his Democratic predecessors Joe Biden and Barack Obama, claiming without evidence they had hired the wrong people due to anti-racism and other non-discrimination initiatives known as DEI.”They actually came out with a directive: ‘too white.’ And we want the people that are competent,” Trump said.Chesley Sullenberger, who famously landed a stricken plane on the Hudson River in New York in 2009, told network MSNBC he was “disgusted” but “not surprised” by Trump’s rhetoric.The hero pilot, known as Sully, noted that it took 16 months for the final report when his own flight crash-landed.Aviation experts, meanwhile, homed in on whether the helicopter crew could see through military night-vision goggles and whether the Reagan National control tower was understaffed.- ‘Speculation’ -According to The New York Times, one controller, rather than the usual two, was handling both plane and helicopter traffic at the time.Just 24 hours earlier, another plane had to make a second approach to the airport after a helicopter neared its flight path, The Washington Post and CNN reported, citing an audio recording from air traffic control.NTSB member Todd Inman told CNN the investigation would resist political pressure to reach a conclusion about the crash ahead of the investigation playing out.”There’s a lot of people that have speculation and want to be heard in that regard,” he said. “We understand that, but our job is to find, ultimately, what caused this and prevent it in the future.”The collision was the first major crash in the United States since 2009, and the deadliest since the American Airlines jet crash in Belle Harbor, New York in 2001 that killed 260.Among those on Wednesday’s doomed airliner were several US skaters and coaches, and Russian couple Evgenia Shishkova and Vadim Naumov, who won the 1994 world pairs title.Two Chinese citizens and a Filipino were also among the victims, according to official sources in the countries.Terry Liercke, vice president and manager of Reagan National Airport, said the hub was operating at reduced capacity, with two of three runways closed and 100 flights canceled Friday.

Karla Sofia Gascon, the transgender actress and history-making Oscar nominee for musical film “Emilia Perez,” has apologized after old social media posts resurfaced in which she denigrated Islam and George Floyd.The controversy, which erupted days after Gascon became the first openly trans acting nominee in Academy Awards history, threatens to overshadow Netflix’s campaign for a movie that procured a leading 13 Oscar nominations.Gascon said she was “deeply sorry to those I have caused pain,” in a statement sent to AFP via a Netflix spokeswoman on Friday.Many of the social media posts, which date back to at least 2016, specifically criticize Islam and Muslims. Gascon described Islam as “an infection” and “a deeply disgusting type of humanity.” Another post referred to Floyd — the Black man murdered by US police, whose death in 2020 sparked mass anti-racism protests — as a “drug addict and a scammer.” Spanish star Gascon, 52, was launched to global fame at the Cannes film festival last May, where “Emilia Perez” — in which she plays a Mexican narco boss who becomes a woman — won multiple prizes.It was bought by streaming giant Netflix, and earlier this month “Emilia Perez” shattered the record for the most Academy Award nominations for a non-English-language film, with 13 nods.That success came despite criticisms leveled at the film from certain quarters, for its depictions of Mexico and its drug war, its representation of trans issues, and its use of artificial intelligence to increase Gascon’s voice range in musical scenes. As the film’s release and award campaign has ramped up, Gascon has spoken of her sadness and exhaustion at becoming a target for vicious online transphobic attacks.Gascon also became embroiled in a row this week after accusing “many people working around” her best actress rival nominee, Brazil’s Fernanda Torres, of talking “badly about me, and Emilia Perez.”But at least until now Gascon has been considered a front-runner for best actress, and the film is viewed by pundits as a strong contender to win best picture.The social media tweets resurfaced Thursday after being shared online by journalist Sarah Hagi. Gascon also joked that a “Chinese vaccine” for Covid-19 would come with “two spring rolls” and “a cat that moves its hand,” and said a recent Oscars ceremony looked like “an Afro-Korean festival” or “a Black Lives Matter demonstration.”Gascon’s account on X, formerly Twitter, has since been deactivated.”I want to acknowledge the conversation around my past social media posts that have caused hurt,” said Gascon’s statement.”As someone in a marginalized community, I know this suffering all too well and I am deeply sorry to those I have caused pain.”All my life I have fought for a better world. I believe light will always triumph over darkness.”

Scientists have cast doubt on the reliability of America’s most celebrated rodent forecaster — whose apparent knack of predicting how long winter will last forms a hallowed tradition in the United States.Punxsutawney Phil, made famous by the 1993 film “Groundhog Day,” attracts thousands of onlookers every February 2 to the Pennsylvania town that he takes his name from.The US state’s tradition of using a large rodent to predict the seasons dates back to the Pennsylvania Dutch belief that if a groundhog left its burrow and saw its shadow, it would scurry back inside and winter would go on for six more weeks.But professional forecasters have warned ahead of Phil’s appearance this Sunday that his prediction is likely to be way off the mark.The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has concluded that only 35 percent of Phil’s forecasts have proved to be accurate — placing him at a lowly 17th compared to other rodent forecasters.Staten Island Chuck, a New York-based groundhog, tops the rankings with an impressive 85 percent accuracy rate on his forecasts.Phil and his predecessors, also called Phil, have been forecasting since 1887.

The Pentagon has quietly scrapped a policy that assisted troops who needed to travel to receive reproductive health care including abortions, a US defense official said Friday.President Donald Trump’s new administration has taken aim at multiple military policies opposed by Republicans, including seeking to end “transgender ideology” in the armed forces and to reinstate troops dismissed for refusing Covid vaccines.The end of the reproductive health care policy took effect earlier this week, the defense official said, without providing details on the decision.While the policy has been contentious, it was only used a limited number of times — 12 — at a cost of less than $45,000 between June and December 2023, the only time frame for which figures were released by the Pentagon.The US Supreme Court in 2022 struck down the nationwide right to abortion, meaning troops stationed in states that restricted or banned the procedure must take leave and travel to areas where it is legal to obtain one.The Defense Department responded by permitting service members to take administrative absences to receive “non-covered reproductive health care,” and establishing travel allowances.- Security held ‘hostage’ -The policy drew fire from Republicans, especially Senator Tommy Tuberville, a former football coach who sought to delay the approval of hundreds of senior military officers’ promotions in response.At the top of the US armed forces, Tuberville’s actions led to three officers serving as the acting heads of military branches and on the Joint Chiefs of Staff while also performing their previous jobs as deputy service chiefs.Tuberville eventually backed down, but US officials have said his “hold” on promotions caused significant disruption.The senator hailed the end of the policy, saying Trump and his Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had secured “what I’ve been fighting for since I got to Washington: ZERO taxpayer dollars should go towards abortions.”Hegseth responded to Tuberville’s post on social media site X, saying: “Thank you for your leadership, Coach.”Others were opposed to the change, including Jeanne Shaheen, a Democratic member of the Senate Armed Services Committee.The end of the policy “will harm the health and wellbeing of our service members and does nothing to support our military readiness,” Shaheen said on X.Senator Tammy Duckworth — who lost both legs when her Black Hawk helicopter was struck by a rocket-propelled grenade in Iraq — slammed Tuberville in a post on X.”You held our national security and military readiness hostage for 9 months over this compassionate policy,” said Duckworth, another Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

US President Donald Trump sent an envoy to Venezuela Friday to warn leftist leader Nicolas Maduro to accept the unconditional return of deported Venezuelans or face consequences.Richard Grenell, an outspoken Trump ally who serves in a broad role as envoy for special missions, traveled to Caracas to speak to Maduro as the new Washington administration vows to push a hard line.State TV broadcast images Friday afternoon of Maduro receiving Grenell for a closed meeting at the presidential palace.White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Grenell would demand that Caracas allow repatriation flights for members of the Tren de Aragua — the Venezuelan criminal gang Trump has designated a terrorist group. “President Trump expects Nicolas Maduro to take back all of the Venezuelan criminals and gang members that have been exported to the United States, and to do so unequivocally and without condition,” Mauricio Claver-Carone, US special envoy for Latin America, said separately.Claver-Carone said Grenell was also demanding that “American hostages need to be released — immediately, unequivocally.””All I would do on this call is urge the Maduro government — the Maduro regime — in Venezuela, to heed to Special Envoy Ric Grenell and to his demands and what he puts on the table, because ultimately, there will be consequences otherwise,” Claver-Carone told reporters.It was one of the first known meetings by the second Trump administration with a government it considers hostile.Maduro was sworn in for a third presidential term on January 10 despite being accused of stealing the election last July. The opposition, and much of the international community, considers rival Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia the rightful winner.Claver-Carone said the talks did not imply any softening of the position on Maduro, whose previous term Washington had also considered illegitimate.The Joe Biden administration had agreed to relax sanctions on oil as part of a deal for American prisoners and free elections. Venezuela freed 10 Americans in a swap. But Biden reimposed sanctions after Maduro did not follow through on democratic reforms.Maduro recently announced the capture of seven “mercenaries” and said two were US citizens — including a “senior FBI official.”The Foro Penal rights NGO says eight Americans are imprisoned in Venezuela, plus two people of unknown nationalities who had resided in the United States.”This is not a quid pro quo, is not a negotiation in exchange for anything. President Trump himself has made very clear we don’t need Venezuelan oil,” Claver-Carone said.Venezuela has the world’s biggest known oil reserves, but production is stunted and GDP has dropped 80 percent in a decade on Maduro’s watch — prompting more than seven million of the country’s 30 million citizens to flee.- Top priority for Trump -Trump has made the deportation of undocumented people in the United States a top priority. During his campaign, he described immigrants as “poisoning the blood” of the United States.Since his return to the White House, he has pressed countries to take back deportees — a top priority for Secretary of State Marco Rubio as he starts a five-nation tour of Latin America on Saturday.In his first week back in office, Trump vowed crushing tariffs on Colombia, a longstanding US ally, after its president called for more humane treatment of repatriated citizens.The Trump administration quickly ended protections from deportation for more than 600,000 Venezuelans living in the United States under a special status. The Biden administration had allowed them to stay due to fears for their safety if they return to Venezuela.Venezuela’s opposition decried the lifting of the protections, saying the vast majority of Venezuelans in the United States were “honest and hard-working” and forced to flee by Maduro.Trump also signed a law making it easier to detain migrants who commit crimes, naming it after 22-year-old Laken Riley, a nursing student murdered by an undocumented Venezuelan migrant who had been arrested but released twice.

President Donald Trump has said he wants to send 30,000 “criminal illegal aliens” to the notorious Guantanamo Bay US military base in Cuba.The site houses the prison where hundreds of terror suspects labelled “enemy combatants” were held — many for years without charge — after the 9/11 attacks. Some were tortured.Trump said this week he had ordered the construction of a detention center there to “double our capacity immediately” to hold undocumented migrants.The plan has raised questions and concerns.- Is it new? -Guantanamo Bay has for decades been used to hold Caribbean asylum seekers and refugees caught at sea. Migrants are held in a different part of the base than that used for terror suspects.In the 1990s, it was used to house tens of thousands of Haitians and Cubans who fled crises in their homelands.They were accommodated in tent cities, many eventually sent home after being held at Guantanamo for years.Trump’s move would entail a significant expansion of what is known as the Guantanamo Migrant Operations Center (GMOC).But Deepa Alagesan of the New York-based International Refugee Assistance Project (IRAP) says migrants are already being held “in inhuman conditions, and expanding the facility will be nothing short of disastrous.”In a report last September, the IRAP reported conditions at the GMOC including “undrinkable water and exposure to open sewage, inadequate schooling and medical care for children, and collective punishment of detained Cuban and Haitian refugees.”- Is it legal? -“Some of them are so bad that we don’t even trust the countries to hold them because we don’t want them coming back,” Trump said of the migrants he plans to ship off to Guantanamo — adding it is “a tough place to get out of.”Bill Frelick, refugee and migrants director at Human Rights Watch told AFP that Trump’s intention appears to be “to detain people indefinitely.” He explained there was leeway under domestic and international law to detain migrants administratively for short periods of time until they can be sent back to their home countries.If they cannot be returned, “there is no longer a legitimate reason for the detention, and it becomes arbitrary,” said Frelick.Making matters worse, Guantanamo is a remote, closed military base “which the US government has used to evade legal protections and public scrutiny” in the past.”When detention becomes prolonged and indefinite and untethered from proper oversight, it violates human rights and may amount to torture,” said Frelick.The UN human rights office said Friday that migrants should only be detained “as a last resort. And only in exceptional circumstances.”Observers say migrants in Guantanamo would find it hard to access legal counsel.Many would be legitimate asylum seekers who have the right under US and international law to live and work in America while their applications are considered.- Is it necessary? -Thousands of undocumented migrants have been arrested since Trump’s January 20 inauguration, including some accused of crimes.An unknown number have been repatriated to Colombia, Mexico, Guatemala, Brazil and other countries. Trump has vowed to expel “millions.”The US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency currently has funding for 41,500 detainee beds, according to the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank in Washington.In a report this week, it said US military facilities such as Guantanamo “can play a central role in management of detention and deportation” — and already have been used for this purpose under previous administrations including that of Joe Biden.The United States leases the site holding the prison from Cuba under a treaty dating back to 1903.The communist government in Havana considers it an illegal occupation, but the US Department of State website states the lease was the product of “international agreement and treaty” and can only be ended by mutual agreement.

President Donald Trump will impose tariffs Saturday on the three largest US trading partners — Canada, Mexico and China — the White House said, sparking concern for global trade.Trump has reiterated plans for 25 percent tariffs on neighbors Canada and Mexico on Saturday, unless they cracked down on illegal migrants crossing the US border and the flow of deadly fentanyl.He was also threatening an additional 10 percent duty for Chinese goods on the same day, similarly over the drug.”The February 1st deadline that President Trump put into place at a statement several weeks ago continues,” White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters Friday.She added that the issue remains the flow of illegal fentanyl.While Trump has not specified tools he would use, analysts have suggested he could tap emergency economic powers, which allow the president to regulate imports during a national emergency. But this could be hindered by lawsuits.Fentanyl, many times more powerful than heroin, has been responsible for tens of thousands of overdose deaths a year.Beijing has rebuffed claims of its complicity in the deadly trade, while close US ally Canada has countered that below one percent of undocumented migrants and fentanyl entering the United States comes through its northern border.JPMorgan analysts believe tariffs are “a bargaining chip” to accelerate the renegotiation of the existing trade deal known as USMCA between the United States, Mexico and Canada.”However, potentially dismantling a decades-long free-trade area could be a significant shock,” said a recent JPMorgan note.One lesson from Trump’s first term was that policy changes could be announced or threatened on short notice, it added.Tariffs are paid by US businesses to the government on purchases from abroad and the economic weight can fall on importers, foreign suppliers or consumers.- Recession risks -Assistant professor Wendong Zhang of Cornell University said Canada and Mexico would suffer the most under 25 percent US tariffs and with proportional retaliations.”Canada and Mexico stand to lose 3.6 percent and two percent of real GDP respectively, while the US would suffer a 0.3 percent real GDP loss,” he added.Oxford Economics analysts warned that blanket tariffs and pushback could tip Canada and Mexico into recessions, adding the United States also risks a shallow downturn.Mexico’s biggest export sectors — food and beverages, transport equipment and electronics — account for the bulk of its manufacturing activity, said Joan Domene, chief Latin America economist at Oxford Economics.Canada exported nearly 80 percent of its goods to the United States in 2023, and accounts for nearly 60 percent of US crude oil imports, noted the Congressional Research Service (CRS).It is unclear if there could be exceptions, such as on oil imports.Canadian heavy oil, for example, is refined in the United States and regions dependent on it may lack a ready substitute.Canadian producers would bear the brunt of tariffs but US refiners would also be hit with higher costs, said Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service. This could bring gasoline price increases.US merchandise imports from both countries largely enter duty free or with very low rates on average, said the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE).A tariff hike would shock both industrial buyers and consumers.Canadian officials said Ottawa would provide pandemic-level financial support to workers and businesses if US tariffs hit, vowing their readiness to respond.Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Friday her government was in close contact with Trump’s administration.- ‘Grand bargain’ -Trump is also mulling more tariffs on Chinese goods.Beijing has vowed to defend its “national interests,” and a foreign ministry spokeswoman previously warned that “there are no winners in a trade war.”On the election campaign trail, Trump raised the idea of levies of 60 percent or higher on Chinese imports.Isaac Boltansky of financial services firm BTIG expects “incremental tariff increases” on Chinese goods, with consumer goods likely to face lower hikes.”Our sense is that Trump will vacillate between carrots and sticks with China, with the ultimate goal being some sort of grand bargain before the end of his term,” he said in a recent note.

US pilot Sully Sullenberger, who famously landed a damaged plane on the Hudson river in New York in 2009, said he was “disgusted” but “not surprised” by President Donald Trump’s point-scoring rhetoric surrounding this week’s crash in Washington.Trump has launched a political offensive blaming diversity hires for the midair collision between an airliner and a military helicopter that plunged into the Potomac river killing 67 people.Republican Trump blamed his Democrat predecessors Barack Obama and Joe Biden for diversity policies that he said were responsible for the crash, though he provided no evidence.Asked by left-leaning MSNBC about his reaction to Trump’s comments, Sullenberger responded on Thursday: “Not surprised, disgusted.”Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger became a national hero after calmly piloting his US Airways airliner onto the water following a bird strike, in an episode remembered as the “Miracle on the Hudson.”A 2016 film “Sully,” starring Tom Hanks and directed by Clint Eastwood, additionally wowed audiences with its account of his emergency landing. Sullenberger urged a measured approach in investigating the crash, with the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) compiling a report.The NTSB “is the gold standard of the globe for accident investigation,” Sullenberger said, reminding that it took 16 months for the final report when his own flight crashed.”We can have great confidence that the results will be found, they will be made public,” he said.On Friday Trump posted new blame on his Truth Special platform, singling out the helicopter’s supposed trajectory.”The Blackhawk helicopter was flying too high, by a lot,” Trump posted. “It was far above the 200 foot limit. That’s not really too complicated to understand, is it???”

The US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure accelerated for a third month in a row in December, according to government data published Friday, while underlying inflation was unchanged.The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.6 percent in the 12 months to December, up from 2.4 percent in November, the Commerce Department said in a statement. Inflation rose 0.3 percent from a month earlier. This was in line with the median forecasts from economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, the so-called core index rose by 0.2 percent from a month earlier, and by 2.8 percent from a year ago. “I’m liking this PCE number,” Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee told CNBC in an interview. “It was expected, and it was even a little better than expected.””The report showed slightly higher inflation, but it was in line with expectations, meaning it won’t disrupt the narrative of a potential Fed rate cut in the first half of the year,” Jochen Stanzl, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets wrote in a note to clients.Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income eased slightly to 3.8 percent in December from 4.1 percent in November, the Commerce Department said, indicating that consumers saved less of the money they earned last month.- Moving away from 2% -Headline inflation has been moving away from the Fed’s long-term target of two percent since September, causing issues for policymakers at the US central bank.The Fed has a dual mandate to tackle inflation and unemployment, and does so mainly by raising and lowering short-term lending rates, which then trickle through into consumer and producer borrowing costs.On Wednesday, the Fed voted unanimously to pause rate reductions following three consecutive cuts, holding the bank’s benchmark lending rate at between 4.25 and 4.50 percent.While headline inflation has accelerated, economic growth has been strong, and the labor market has remained resilient, with the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.1 percent last month.”There’s still more work to be done to bring inflation closer to our two percent goal,” Fed governor Michelle Bowman told a conference in New Hampshire on Friday.”I would like to see progress in lowering inflation resume before we make further adjustments to the target range,” added Bowman, who is a permanent voting member of the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee FOMC).One potential spanner in the works of the Fed’s inflationary fight is President Donald Trump’s threats to introduce new tariffs on several US trading partners, which could come into effect as soon as this weekend.”We’ve got a lot of policy uncertainty,” said Goolsbee from the Chicago Fed, noting that he was not weighing in on what policies he expected the US president — or Congress — to enact.”If it affects prices, it affects us,” he continued, adding that the Fed’s signals became “muddied” when things happened that drove up prices. 

The global economy is bracing for impact as US President Donald Trump’s deadline to impose sweeping tariffs on the three largest US trading partners — Canada, Mexico and China — draws near.Trump said shortly after taking office that he planned to introduce 25 percent tariffs on neighbors Canada and Mexico on February 1, unless they cracked down on illegal migrants crossing the US border and the flow of deadly fentanyl.He is also eyeing an additional 10 percent duty for Chinese goods on Saturday, similarly over fentanyl.While Trump has not specified tools for the new tariffs, analysts have suggested he could tap emergency economic powers — which allow the president to regulate imports during a national emergency. But this could be hindered by lawsuits.On Thursday, he reiterated commitment to levies on all three countries, while re-upping threats of 100 percent tariffs on BRICS nations — a bloc including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — if they create a rival to the US dollar.Fentanyl, many times more powerful than heroin, has been responsible for tens of thousands of overdose deaths a year.Beijing has rebuffed claims of its complicity in the deadly trade, while Canada has countered that below one percent of undocumented migrants and fentanyl entering the United States comes through its northern border.JPMorgan analysts believe tariffs are “a bargaining chip” to accelerate the renegotiation of a trade deal between the United States, Mexico and Canada.”However, potentially dismantling a decades-long free-trade area could be a significant shock,” said a recent JPMorgan note.One lesson from Trump’s first term was that policy changes could be announced or threatened on short notice, it added.Tariffs are paid by US businesses to the government on purchases from abroad and the economic weight can fall on importers, foreign suppliers or consumers.Another looming deadline is April 1, by which Trump has called for reviews including on trade deficits.- Recession risk -Wendong Zhang, an assistant professor at Cornell University, said Canada and Mexico would suffer the most under 25 percent US tariffs and with proportional retaliations.”Canada and Mexico stand to lose 3.6 percent and two percent of real GDP respectively, while the US would suffer a 0.3 percent real GDP loss,” he added.Blanket US tariffs and Ottawa’s response in kind could cause Canada to fall into a recession this year, Tony Stillo of Oxford Economics told AFP, adding that the United States also risks a shallow downturn.Mexico could face a similar situation, Tim Hunter of Oxford Economics added.It is unclear if there could be exceptions. Trump said he expected to decide Thursday whether to include crude oil imports in the new levies.Canada and Mexico supplied more than 70 percent of US crude oil imports, said a Congressional Research Service report.Stillo noted that heavy oil is “exported by Canada, refined in the US, and there aren’t easy substitutes for that in the US.”US merchandise imports from both countries largely enter duty free or with very low rates on average, said the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE).A tariff hike would shock both industrial buyers and consumers, cutting across everything from machinery to fruits, PIIE added.Canadian officials said Ottawa would provide pandemic-level financial support to workers and businesses if US tariffs hit, vowing their readiness to respond.Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she was confident her country could avoid the levy.But Trump’s commerce secretary nominee Howard Lutnick said Wednesday “there will be no tariff” if Canada and Mexico acted on immigration and fentanyl.- ‘Grand bargain’ -Trump is also mulling more tariffs on Chinese goods.White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters this week: “The president has said that he is very much still considering that for February 1st.”Beijing has vowed to defend its “national interests,” and a foreign ministry spokeswoman previously warned that “there are no winners in a trade war.”On the election campaign trail, Trump raised the idea of levies of 60 percent or higher on Chinese imports.Isaac Boltansky of financial services firm BTIG expects “incremental tariff increases” on Chinese goods, with consumer goods likely to face lower hikes.”Our sense is that Trump will vacillate between carrots and sticks with China, with the ultimate goal being some sort of grand bargain before the end of his term,” he said in a recent note.