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Police swarmed Midtown Manhattan on Monday as the mayor of New York City said there was “an active shooter investigation” amid reports a police officer had been struck.”New Yorkers: there is an active shooter investigation taking place in Midtown right now. Please take proper safety precautions if you are in vicinity and do not go outside if you are near Park Avenue and East 51st Street,” Mayor Eric Adams wrote on X.Police officers deployed a drone near Park Avenue at the height of the evening rush-hour as dozens of officers gathered in the area, some carrying long guns and others wearing ballistic vests.A number of ambulances had gathered in the vicinity.Officers at the scene confirmed to an AFP correspondent that there was a shooter but gave no other details.CNN reported that a police officer and at least one civilian had been shot, but AFP was unable to immediately confirm that.Police repeatedly pushed back journalists and members of the public who gathered to see what was happening in the normally calm but busy area of Midtown Manhattan.The area is home to several five-star business hotels, as well as a number of corporate headquarters, including Colgate Palmolive and KPMG, the auditor.

The dollar jumped Monday on the back of a US-EU trade deal, but the main European stock markets fell, reflecting unease at terms viewed as lopsided.Frankfurt closed sharply down, as shares in German carmakers plunged. Paris dipped, while London — outside the EU — also receded.Wall Street, meanwhile, finished mixed after a choppy session. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 edged to fresh records, while the Dow slipped.The US market’s “muted” reaction made sense given the heavy number of economic news releases this week that could move the market, said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global strategist at Edward Jones.”Because markets have run a lot in a short amount of time, we may get some good enough news, but they may not elicit the same reaction as some of the good news over the last couple of weeks when valuations were lower than they are today,” Kourkafas said. While Brussels defended the deal announced over the weekend as “better than a trade war with the United States,” several EU countries expressed unhappiness.European capitals saw the agreement’s 15 percent tariffs on most EU exports to the United States — but none on US exports to the EU — as skewed.As part of the deal, President Donald Trump said the bloc had agreed to purchase “$750 billion worth of energy” from the United States, and make $600 billion in additional investments.”While the deal has avoided a much worse outcome for now, it remains to be seen whether it will last,” cautioned Jack Allen-Reynolds, a eurozone economist at Capital Economics.With average US tariffs on EU imports now around 17 percent, “we think this will reduce EU GDP by about 0.2 percent,” he said.He predicted that “uncertainty is likely to remain high” because Trump “could still change his mind even after the deal has been finalized and signed.”Oil prices rose strongly.That was partly on relief from the deal — but also because Trump shortened a deadline for Russia to end its war in Ukraine to August 7 or 9, after which he vowed to sanction countries buying its crude.Monday also saw the start of a fresh round of trade negotiations between China and the United States ahead of August 12, when a 90-day truce between the economic superpowers is scheduled to end.Shares in European companies tracked the unease at the EU-US deal.Volkswagen, BMW and Porsche all shed more than three percent as the implications of high tariffs on their exports to the United States sank in. In Paris, shares in Pernod Ricard, which exports wine and spirits to the United States, fell more than three percent.Traders were prepared for a busy week in the United States, with a slew of corporate earnings reports — including from Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon — and macro data readings coming their way giving indications about US jobs and growth.The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week, with investors focused on its outlook for the rest of the year given Trump’s tariffs and recent trade deals.- Key figures at around 2030 GMT -New York – Dow: DOWN 0.1 percent at 44,837.56 (close)New York – S&P 500: UP less than 0.1 percent at 6,389.77 (close)New York – Nasdaq Composite: UP 0.3 percent at 21,178.58 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.4 percent at 9,081.44 (close)Paris – CAC 40: DOWN 0.4 percent at 7,800.88 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: DOWN 1.0 percent at 23,970.36 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.1 percent at 40,998.27 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.7 percent at 25,562.13 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 3,597.94 (close)Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1597 from $1.1742 on FridayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3356 from $1.3438Dollar/yen: UP at 148.52 yen from 147.69 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 86.80 pence from 87.39 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 2.3 percent at $70.04 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 2.4 percent at $66.71 per barrel

US President Donald Trump asked a federal judge on Monday to expedite a deposition of Rupert Murdoch in his $10 billion defamation lawsuit against The Wall Street Journal, citing the media baron’s advanced age.”Murdoch is 94 years old, has suffered from multiple health issues throughout his life (and) is believed to have suffered recent significant health scares,” Trump’s attorneys said in a filing with a district court in Florida.”These factors weigh heavily in determining that Murdoch would be unavailable for in-person testimony at trial,” they said, asking District Judge Darrin Gayles to compel an “expedited deposition.”Gayles gave lawyers for Murdoch until August 4 to respond.Trump sued Murdoch and the Journal this month after it published an article about his friendship with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.The newspaper reported that in 2003, the then-real estate magnate wrote a suggestive birthday letter to Epstein, illustrated with a naked woman and alluding to a shared “secret.”Trump denies any such letter exists.Epstein, a longtime friend of Trump and multiple high-profile men, was found hanging dead in a New York prison cell in 2019 while awaiting trial on charges that he sexually exploited hundreds of underage girls at his homes in New York and Florida.The case sparked conspiracy theories, especially among Trump’s far-right voters, about an alleged international cabal of wealthy pedophiles.When Trump returned to power for a second term this January, his supporters clamored for revelations but the FBI and Justice Department released a memo this month saying Epstein had not blackmailed any prominent figures and did not have a “client list.”In another development on Monday, a lawyer for Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein’s associate and the only person found guilty of crimes in connection with his activities, asked the Supreme Court to throw out her 2021 sex trafficking conviction.Maxwell is seeking to have her conviction overturned on grounds that a plea deal reached in 2008 between Epstein and federal prosecutors in a Florida case ruled out prosecution of any “co-conspirators.””This case is about what the government promised, not what Epstein did,” her lawyer, David Markus said. “Petitioner’s alleged status as Epstein’s co-conspirator was the entire basis of her prosecution.”The Justice Department has previously opposed Maxwell’s motion but a top official met with her in Florida last week as the Trump administration struggles to tamp down a furor over the president’s handling of the Epstein case.Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, who is also Trump’s former personal attorney, has declined to say what he discussed with Maxwell in the highly unusual meetings between a convicted felon and a top DOJ official.The former British socialite is serving a 20-year sentence after being convicted of recruiting underage girls for Epstein.

Chinese and US officials wrapped the first day in a fresh round of talks in Stockholm on Monday, with the world’s top two economies looking to extend a fragile trade truce in the face of President Donald Trump’s global tariff war.The talks came a day after Trump reached a deal with the EU that will see the bloc’s exports to the United States taxed at 15 percent.The negotiations in Sweden concluded shortly before 8:00 pm (1800 GMT), with neither side offering details on their progress, although a US Treasury department spokesman said they were expected to resume on Tuesday.The United States and China earlier this year imposed triple-digit tariffs on each other in a tit-for-tat escalation, but then walked them back under a temporary agreement reached in May.The expiry of that 90-day truce falls on August 12, but there are indications they could use the Stockholm talks to push it back further.The South China Morning Post, citing sources on both sides, reported on Sunday that Washington and Beijing are expected to extend their tariff pause by a further 90 days.Under the existing accord, US duties on Chinese goods have temporarily been lowered to 30 percent, and China’s countermeasures slashed to 10 percent.Dozens of other countries, though, face a Trump deadline of Friday this week to seal deals with Washington or see US tariffs against them rise.Beijing said ahead of the Stockholm meeting that it wants to see “reciprocity” in its trade with the United States.Foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said Beijing favoured “consensus through dialogue” to “reduce misunderstandings, strengthen cooperation and promote the stable, healthy and sustainable development of China-US relations”.The negotiating teams in Stockholm were being led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Sweden.They were meeting in the Rosenbad building, home to the Swedish government. The Chinese and US flags were raised in front of it for the talks.- ‘Shift’ seen in US approach -The previous round of China-US talks was held in London.”There seems to have been a fairly significant shift in (US) administration thinking on China since particularly the London talks,” said Emily Benson, head of strategy at Minerva Technology Futures.”The mood now is much more focused on what’s possible to achieve, on warming relations where possible and restraining any factors that could increase tensions,” she told AFP.Talks with China have not produced a deal but Benson said both countries have made progress, with certain rare earth and semiconductor flows restarting.”Secretary Bessent has also signalled that he thinks a concrete outcome will be to delay the 90-day tariff pause,” she said. “That’s also promising, because it indicates that something potentially more substantive is on the horizon.”US-China Business Council president Sean Stein said the most important thing from Stockholm “is the atmosphere coming out”.”The business community is optimistic that the two presidents will meet later this year, hopefully in Beijing,” he told AFP.Other countries in Trump’s tariffs crosshairs have been parsing Washington’s negotiations with China and the European Union for clues on what options they might have.The US president has imposed a baseline 10-percent rate on most countries around the world, but has vowed to raise that from August 1 on certain nations if they do not make a deal.He has threatened to hike tariffs up to 50 percent on partners such as Brazil and India.Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have already effectively raised duties on US imports to levels not seen since the 1930s, according to data from The Budget Lab research centre at Yale University.Trump has announced pacts so far with the European Union, Britain, Vietnam, Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines, although details have been sparse.The EU unveiled a pact with Washington on Sunday while South Korea is rushing to strike an agreement.Breakthroughs have been patchy since Washington promised a flurry of agreements after unveiling — and then swiftly postponing — tariff hikes targeting dozens of economies in April.burs-ft/rlp

Chinese and US officials held a fresh round of talks in Stockholm on Monday, with the world’s top two economies looking to extend a fragile trade truce in the face of President Donald Trump’s global tariff war.The talks came a day after Trump reached a deal with the EU that will see the bloc’s exports to the United States taxed at 15 percent.The United States and China earlier this year imposed triple-digit tariffs on each other in a tit-for-tat escalation, but then walked them back under a temporary agreement reached in May.That expiry of their 90-day truce falls on August 12, but there are indications they could use the Stockholm talks to push it back further.The South China Morning Post, citing sources on both sides, reported on Sunday that Washington and Beijing are expected to extend their tariff pause by a further 90 days.Under the existing accord, US duties on Chinese goods have temporarily been lowered to 30 percent, and China’s countermeasures slashed to 10 percent.Dozens of other countries, though, face a Trump deadline of Friday this week to seal deals with Washington or see US tariffs against them rise.The Swedish prime minister’s office confirmed the China-US talks, which are expected to last two days, were under way.Beijing said ahead of the Stockholm meeting that it wants to see “reciprocity” in its trade with the United States.Foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said Beijing favoured “consensus through dialogue” to “reduce misunderstandings, strengthen cooperation and promote the stable, healthy and sustainable development of China-US relations”.The negotiating teams in Stockholm were being led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Sweden.They were meeting in Rosenbad, a building that is home to the Swedish government. The Chinese and US flags were raised in front of it for the talks.- ‘Shift’ seen in US approach -The previous round of China-US talks was held in London.”There seems to have been a fairly significant shift in (US) administration thinking on China since particularly the London talks,” said Emily Benson, head of strategy at Minerva Technology Futures.”The mood now is much more focused on what’s possible to achieve, on warming relations where possible and restraining any factors that could increase tensions,” she told AFP.Talks with China have not produced a deal but Benson said both countries have made progress, with certain rare earth and semiconductor flows restarting.”Secretary Bessent has also signalled that he thinks a concrete outcome will be to delay the 90-day tariff pause,” she said. “That’s also promising, because it indicates that something potentially more substantive is on the horizon.”US-China Business Council president Sean Stein said the most important thing from Stockholm “is the atmosphere coming out”.”The business community is optimistic that the two presidents will meet later this year, hopefully in Beijing,” he told AFP.Other countries in Trump’s tariffs crosshairs have been parsing Washington’s negotiations with China and the European Union for clues on what options they might have.The US president has imposed a baseline 10-percent rate on most countries around the world, but has vowed to raise that from August 1 on certain nations if they do not deal.He as threatened hiked tariffs of up to 50 percent on partners such as Brazil and India.Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have already effectively raised duties on US imports to levels not seen since the 1930s, according to data from The Budget Lab research centre at Yale University.Trump has announced pacts so far with the European Union, Britain, Vietnam, Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines, although details have been sparse.The EU unveiled a pact with Washington on Sunday while South Korea is rushing to strike an agreement.Breakthroughs have been patchy since Washington promised a flurry of agreements after unveiling — and then swiftly postponing — tariff hikes targeting dozens of economies in April.burs-rmb/rl

Chinese and US economic officials met for talks in Stockholm on Monday, with Beijing saying it wanted to see “reciprocity” in its trade with the United States.The Swedish prime minister’s office confirmed the talks, which are expected to last two days, were under way.The talks came a day after US President Donald Trump reached a deal that will see imports from the European Union taxed at 15 percent and the clock ticking down for many countries to reach deals or face high US tariffs.Beijing said on Monday it hoped the two sides could hold talks in the spirit of “mutual respect and reciprocity”.Foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said Beijing sought to “enhance consensus through dialogue and communication, reduce misunderstandings, strengthen cooperation and promote the stable, healthy and sustainable development of China-US relations”.For dozens of trading partners, failing to strike an agreement in the coming days means they could face significant tariff hikes on exports to the United States come Friday, August 1.The steeper rates, threatened against partners like Brazil and India, would raise the duties their products face from a “baseline” of 10 percent now to levels up to 50 percent.Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have already effectively raised duties on US imports to levels not seen since the 1930s, according to data from The Budget Lab research centre at Yale University.For now, all eyes are on discussions between Washington and Beijing as a delegation including US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets a Chinese team led by Vice Premier He Lifeng in Sweden.In Stockholm, Chinese and US flags were raised in front of Rosenbad, the seat of the Swedish government.While both countries in April imposed tariffs on each other’s products that reached triple-digit levels, US duties this year have temporarily been lowered to 30 percent and China’s countermeasures slashed to 10 percent.But the 90-day truce, instituted after talks in Geneva in May, is set to expire on August 12.Since the Geneva meeting, the two sides have convened in London to iron out disagreements.- China progress? -“There seems to have been a fairly significant shift in (US) administration thinking on China since particularly the London talks,” said Emily Benson, head of strategy at Minerva Technology Futures.”The mood now is much more focused on what’s possible to achieve, on warming relations where possible and restraining any factors that could increase tensions,” she told AFP.Talks with China have not produced a deal but Benson said both countries have made progress, with certain rare earth and semiconductor flows restarting.”Secretary Bessent has also signalled that he thinks a concrete outcome will be to delay the 90-day tariff pause,” she said. “That’s also promising, because it indicates that something potentially more substantive is on the horizon.”The South China Morning Post, citing sources on both sides, reported Sunday that Washington and Beijing are expected to extend their tariff pause by another 90 days.Trump has announced pacts so far with the European Union, Britain, Vietnam, Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines, although details have been sparse.An extension of the US-China deal to keep tariffs at reduced levels “would show that both sides see value in continuing talks”, said Thibault Denamiel, a fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.US-China Business Council president Sean Stein said the market was not anticipating a detailed readout from Stockholm: “What’s more important is the atmosphere coming out.””The business community is optimistic that the two presidents will meet later this year, hopefully in Beijing,” he told AFP.”It’s clear that on both sides, the final decision-maker is going to be the president.”For others, the prospect of higher US tariffs and few details from fresh trade deals mark “a far cry from the ideal scenario”, said Denamiel.But they show some progress, particularly with partners Washington has signalled are on its priority list like the EU, Japan, the Philippines and South Korea.The EU unveiled a pact with Washington on Sunday while Seoul is rushing to strike an agreement, after Japan and the Philippines already reached the outlines of deals.Breakthroughs have been patchy since Washington promised a flurry of agreements after unveiling, and then swiftly postponing, tariff hikes targeting dozens of economies in April.burs-rl/cw

The party is in Kenya, but the vibe is distinctly Americana: a sea of cowboy hats and boots with a soundtrack of whisky-soaked tales about heartbreak and good ol’ boys.Kenya has become the unlikely home of a growing country music scene, possibly the biggest in Africa, as testified by the thousands line-dancing in a field in the capital Nairobi this weekend for International Cowboys and Cowgirls Day. The festival crowd went wild for the king of the local country scene, “Sir Elvis” Otieno, as his deep baritone belted out classics like “Take Me Home, Country Roads” mixed with newer hits like “Down to the Honkytonk”.Sir Elvis’s parents named him after another musical monarch who died a few months before he was born in 1977, and then raised him on a diet of country legends like Jim Reeves and Alan Jackson.”When I started out it was a very tiny genre” in Kenya, he told AFP at the festival. “It’s a dream come true to see a crowd like this today.”There are links, he said, to local traditions, particularly the story-telling music of the Kikuyu tribe known as Mugithi.”Kikuyu folk music has the same kind of language, they draw from each other quite a bit,” said Sir Elvis. “It’s really crazy — so many thousands of miles apart, but the messaging is the same.”- ‘Life, love, hate, forgiveness’ -Anne Anene, 26, still remembers the song that turned her into a country music fan: Dolly Parton’s “Do I Ever Cross Your Mind?”. “Her songs always speak to me because they always have deep messages, and they usually tell a story of what I go through,” said Anene, a customer service representative for a health insurance firm. “I’ve always hoped to go to Texas or Nashville one day,” she added. “I’d like to visit the ranches, I like horse riding, I like the ranch kind of life — the quiet, the calm.”The clothes are also a big part of the appeal. The festival was organised by Reja Manyeki, who runs a clothing and events company called Cowboys and Cowgirls.It was still pretty niche when he opened in 2018 but “now people love country music. It touches all corners (of society).”We do cowboy-themed events, birthdays, weddings, end-of-year parties… Now everyone comes, even schools.”Big farming and Christian communities also make Kenya fertile ground for country and gospel music.First to perform at the festival was Samson Maombe who’s picked up millions of streams for his Swahili-language takes on Christian country tunes. But for “King George” Gustavo, lead MC of the festival, it’s the tales of everyday life that keep him hooked and ensures he listens to Alan Jackson “every single day”. “The lyrics speak to life, love, hate, forgiveness, cheating, drinking…” he said. “You identify with that, and then obviously there’s a bit of dancing.”Anene, the Dolly Parton fan, says country music is also an escape. “In this world full of confusion, full of drama, country music is the only thing that makes sense to me. It has made me find peace.”

The United States and the European Union clinched a trade agreement on Sunday that will see EU exports taxed at 15 percent, in a bid to resolve a transatlantic tariff stand-off that threatened to explode into a full-blown trade war.US President Donald Trump emerged from a high-stakes meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at his golf resort in Scotland, describing the deal as the “biggest-ever”. The deal, which the leaders reached after an hour of talks, came as the clock ticked down on an August 1 deadline to avoid an across-the-board US levy of 30 percent on European goods.”We’ve reached a deal. It’s a good deal for everybody. This is probably the biggest deal ever reached in any capacity,” said Trump.Trump said a baseline tariff of 15 percent would apply across the board, including for Europe’s crucial automobile sector, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.As part of the deal, Trump said the 27-nation EU bloc had agreed to purchase “$750 billion worth of energy” from the United States, as well as make $600 billion in additional investments.Von der Leyen said the “significant” purchases of US liquefied natural gas, oil and nuclear fuels would come over three years, as part of the bloc’s bid to diversify away from Russian sources.Negotiating on behalf of the EU’s 27 countries, von der Leyen had been pushing hard to salvage a trading relationship worth an annual $1.9 trillion in goods and services.”It’s a good deal,” the EU chief told reporters.”It will bring stability. It will bring predictability. That’s very important for our businesses on both sides of the Atlantic,” she said.She added that bilateral tariff exemptions had been agreed on a number of “strategic products”, notably aircraft, certain chemicals, some agricultural products and critical raw materials.Von der Leyen said the EU still hoped to secure further so-called “zero-for-zero” agreements, notably for alcohol, which she hoped to be “sorted out” in the coming days.Trump also said EU countries — which recently pledged to ramp up their defence spending within NATO — would be purchasing “hundreds of billions of dollars worth of military equipment.”- ‘Best we could get’ -The EU has been hit by multiple waves of tariffs since Trump reclaimed the White House.It is currently subject to a 25-percent levy on cars, 50 percent on steel and aluminium, and an across-the-board tariff of 10 percent, which Washington threatened to hike to 30 percent in a no-deal scenario.The bloc had been pushing hard for tariff carve-outs for critical industries from aircraft to spirits, and its auto industry, crucial for France and Germany, is already reeling from the levies imposed so far.”Fifteen percent is not to be underestimated, but it is the best we could get,” acknowledged von der Leyen.Any deal will need to be approved by EU member states — whose ambassadors, on a visit to Greenland, were updated by the commission Sunday morning. They were set to meet again after the deal struck in Scotland.German Chancellor Friedrich Merz rapidly hailed the deal, saying it avoided “needless escalation in transatlantic trade relations”.But German exporters were less enthusiastic. The powerful BDI federation of industrial groups said the accord would have “considerable negative repercussions” while the country’s VCI chemical trade association said the accord left rates “too high”.Ireland, one of the EU’s top exporters to the United States, said Sunday it welcomed the deal for bringing “a measure of much-needed certainty”, but that it “regrets” the baseline tariff, in a statement by its Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.France’s minister for Europe, Benjamin Haddad, wrote on X on Monday that the agreement would provide “temporary stability… but it is unbalanced”.The EU had pushed for a compromise on steel that could allow a certain quota into the United States before tariffs would apply.Trump appeared to rule that out, saying steel was “staying the way it is”, but the EU chief insisted later that “tariffs will be cut and a quota system will be put in place” for steel.- ‘The big one’ -While 15 percent is much higher than pre-existing US tariffs on European goods, which average around 4.8 percent, it mirrors the status quo, with companies currently facing an additional flat rate of 10 percent.Had the talks failed, EU states had greenlit counter tariffs on $109 billion (93 billion euros) of US goods, including aircraft and cars to take effect in stages from August 7. Trump has embarked on a campaign to reshape US trade with the world, and has vowed to hit dozens of countries with punitive tariffs if they do not reach a pact with Washington by August 1.Asked what the next deal would be, Trump replied: “This was the big one. This is the biggest of them all.”burs-gv/yad/tc

After keeping Donald Trump happy with a pledge to up defence spending at NATO’s summit, Europe is now bracing for a key decision from the US president on the future of American forces on the continent.Washington is currently conducting a review of its military deployments worldwide — set to be unveiled in coming months — and the expectation is it will lead to drawdowns in Europe.That prospect is fraying the nerves of US allies, especially as fears swirl that Russia could look to attack a NATO country within the next few years if the war in Ukraine dies down. However, the alliance is basking in Trump’s newfound goodwill following its June summit in The Hague, and his officials are making encouraging noises that Europe will not be left in the lurch.”We’ve agreed to no surprises and no gaps in the strategic framework of Europe,” said Matthew Whitaker, US ambassador to NATO, adding he expected the review to come out in “late summer, early fall”.”I have daily conversations with our allies about the process,” he said.While successive US governments have mulled scaling back in Europe to focus more on China, Trump has insisted more forcefully than his predecessors that the continent should handle its own defence.”There’s every reason to expect a withdrawal from Europe,” said Marta Mucznik from the International Crisis Group. “The question is not whether it’s going to happen, but how fast.”When Trump returned to office in January many felt he was about to blow a hole in the seven-decade-old alliance.But the vibe in NATO circles is now far more upbeat than those desperate days.”There’s a sanguine mood, a lot of guesswork, but the early signals are quite positive,” one senior European diplomat told AFP, talking as others on condition of anonymity.  “Certainly no panic or doom and gloom.”- ‘Inevitable’ -The Pentagon says there are nearly 85,000 US military personnel in Europe — a number that has fluctuated between 75,000 and 105,000 since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.”I think it is inevitable that they pull out some of their forces,” a second European diplomat told AFP. “But I don’t expect this to be like a dramatic overhaul. I think it’s going to be gradual. I think it’s going to be based on consultations.”Trump’s first target is likely to be the troops left over from a surge ordered by his predecessor Joe Biden after Moscow’s tanks rolled into Ukraine.Officials say relocating the rump of that 20,000-strong deployment would not hurt NATO’s deterrence too much — but alarm bells would ring if Trump looked to cut too deep into personnel numbers or close key bases.The issue is not just troop numbers — the US has capabilities such as air defences, long-range missiles and satellite surveillance that allies would struggle to replace in the short-term.”The kinds of defence investments by Europe that are being made coming out of The Hague summit may only be felt in real capability terms over many years,” said Ian Lesser from the German Marshall Fund think tank.”So the question of timing really does matter.”- ‘Inopportune moment’ -Washington’s desire to pull back from Europe may be tempered by Trump now taking a tougher line with Russia — and Moscow’s reluctance to bow to his demands to end the Ukraine war.”It seems an inopportune moment to send signals of weakness and reductions in the American security presence in Europe,” Lesser said.He also pointed to Trump’s struggles during his first term to pull troops out of Germany — the potential bill for relocating them along with political resistance in Washington scuppering the plan. While European diplomats are feeling more confident than before about the troop review, they admit nothing can be certain with the mercurial US president. Other issues such as Washington’s trade negotiations with the EU could rock transatlantic ties in the meantime and upend the good vibes.”It seems positive for now,” said a third European diplomat. “But what if we are all wrong and a force decrease will start in 2026. To be honest, there isn’t much to go on at this stage.”

Top economic officials from the United States and China are set to renew negotiations Monday — with an extension of lower tariff levels on the cards — as President Donald Trump’s trade policy enters a critical week.Talks between the world’s top two economies are slated to happen over two days in the Swedish capital Stockholm, and they come as other countries are also rushing to finalise deals with Washington.For dozens of trading partners, failing to strike an agreement in the coming days means they could face significant tariff hikes on exports to the United States come Friday, August 1.The steeper rates, threatened against partners like Brazil and India, would raise the duties their products face from a “baseline” of 10 percent now to levels up to 50 percent.Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have already effectively raised duties on US imports to levels not seen since the 1930s, according to data from The Budget Lab research centre at Yale University.For now, all eyes are on discussions between Washington and Beijing as a delegation including US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets a Chinese team led by Vice Premier He Lifeng in Sweden.While both countries in April imposed tariffs on each other’s products that reached triple-digit levels, US duties this year have temporarily been lowered to 30 percent and China’s countermeasures slashed to 10 percent.But the 90-day truce, instituted after talks in Geneva in May, is set to expire on August 12.Since the Geneva meeting, the two sides have convened in London to iron out disagreements.- China progress? -“There seems to have been a fairly significant shift in (US) administration thinking on China since particularly the London talks,” said Emily Benson, head of strategy at Minerva Technology Futures.”The mood now is much more focused on what’s possible to achieve, on warming relations where possible and restraining any factors that could increase tensions,” she told AFP.Talks with China have not produced a deal but Benson said both countries have made progress, with certain rare earth and semiconductor flows restarting.”Secretary Bessent has also signalled that he thinks a concrete outcome will be to delay the 90-day tariff pause,” she said. “That’s also promising, because it indicates that something potentially more substantive is on the horizon.”The South China Morning Post, citing sources on both sides, reported Sunday that Washington and Beijing are expected to extend their tariff pause by another 90 days.Trump has announced pacts so far with the European Union, Britain, Vietnam, Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines, although details have been sparse.An extension of the US-China deal to keep tariffs at reduced levels “would show that both sides see value in continuing talks”, said Thibault Denamiel, a fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.US-China Business Council President Sean Stein said the market is not anticipating a detailed readout from Stockholm: “What’s more important is the atmosphere coming out.””The business community is optimistic that the two presidents will meet later this year, hopefully in Beijing,” he told AFP. “It’s clear that on both sides, the final decision-maker is going to be the president.”Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said both countries’ willingness to meet was a “positive development”. – Far from ideal -For others, the prospect of higher US tariffs and few details from fresh trade deals mark “a far cry from the ideal scenario”, said Denamiel.But they show some progress, particularly with partners Washington has signalled are on its priority list like the EU, Japan, the Philippines and South Korea.The EU unveiled a pact with Washington on Sunday while Seoul is rushing to strike an agreement, after Japan and the Philippines already reached the outlines of deals.Breakthroughs have been patchy since Washington promised a flurry of agreements after unveiling, and then swiftly postponing, tariff hikes targeting dozens of economies in April.Denamiel warned of overlooking countries that fall outside Washington’s priority list.Solid partnerships are needed, he said, if Washington wants to diversify supply chains, enforce advanced technology controls, and tackle excess Chinese capacity.