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Stock fluctuate as trade relief fades, eyes on data and earnings

Stocks were mixed Tuesday as the positivity sparked by recent US trade deals dissipated, with investors now focused on the release of key data and earnings, and the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting.While Donald Trump’s agreement with the European Union on Sunday was seen as better than a tariff standoff, observers pointed out that the US president’s 15 percent levies — with none on American goods — were still much higher than before.The pact, which followed a similar one with Japan last week, still left many concerned about the economic consequences, with auto companies particularly worried.”The 15 percent blanket levy on EU and Japanese imports may have helped markets sidestep a cliff, but it’s no free pass,” said Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.”With the average effective US tariff rate now sitting at 18.2 percent… the barrier to global trade remains significant. The higher tail risk didn’t detonate, but its potential impact on the global economy hasn’t disappeared either.”And National Australia Bank’s Ray Attrill added: “It hasn’t taken long for markets to conclude that this relatively good news is still, in absolute terms, bad news as far as the near term (through 2025) implications for eurozone growth are concerned.”Traders are also keeping an eye on US talks with other major economies, including India and South Korea.After a tepid day on Wall Street — which still saw the S&P and Nasdaq hit records — Asia was mixed.Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, Manila and Taipei were all in the red, while Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington, Mumbai, Bangkok and Jakarta rose.Europe a enjoyed a healthy start to the day, with London, Paris and Frankfurt all up in the morning.The euro held its losses from Monday, having taken a hit from worries about the effects of the trade deal on the eurozone.The first of two days of negotiations between top US and Chinese officials in Stockholm concluded Monday with no details released, though there are hopes they will agree to extend a 90-day truce that ends on August 12.The two imposed triple-digit tariffs on each other earlier this year in a tit-for-tat escalation, but then walked them back under the temporary agreement reached in May.Investors are also looking ahead to a busy few days that includes earnings from tech titans Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon, as well as data on US economic growth and jobs creation.That all comes as the Fed concludes its policy meeting amid increasing pressure from Trump to slash rates, even with inflation staying stubbornly high.While it is expected to stand pat on borrowing costs, its post-meeting statement and comments from boss Jerome Powell will be pored over for clues about its plans for the second half of the year in light of the tariffs.Oil prices extended Monday’s rally after Trump shortened a deadline for Russia to end its war in Ukraine to August 7 or 9, following which he vowed to sanction countries buying its crude.- Key figures at around 0715 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.8 percent at 40,674.55 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.2 percent at 25,524.45 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.3 percent at 3,609.71 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 9,092.87Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1550 from $1.1597 on MondayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3325 from $1.3356Dollar/yen: UP at 148.61 yen from 148.52 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 86.68 pence from 86.80 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.1 percent at $66.77 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.1 percent at $70.09 per barrelNew York – Dow: DOWN 0.1 percent at 44,837.56 (close)

Stock markets fall as trade relief fades, eyes on data and earnings

Stocks fell Tuesday as the positivity sparked by recent US trade deals dissipated, with investors now focused on the release of key data and earnings, and the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting.While Donald Trump’s agreement with the European Union on Sunday was seen as better than a tariff standoff, observers pointed out that the US president’s 15 percent levies — with none on American goods — were still much higher than before.The pact, which followed a similar one with Japan last week, still left many worried about the economic consequences, with auto companies particularly worried.”The 15 percent blanket levy on EU and Japanese imports may have helped markets sidestep a cliff, but it’s no free pass,” said Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.”With the average effective US tariff rate now sitting at 18.2 percent… the barrier to global trade remains significant. The higher tail risk didn’t detonate, but its potential impact on the global economy hasn’t disappeared either.”And National Australia Bank’s Ray Attrill added: “It hasn’t taken long for markets to conclude that this relatively good news is still, in absolute terms, bad news as far as the near term (through 2025) implications for eurozone growth are concerned.”Traders are also keeping an eye on US talks with other major economies, including India and South Korea.After a tepid day on Wall Street — which still saw the S&P and Nasdaq hit records — Asia turned negative.Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington, Taipei, Manila and Jakarta were all in the red.The euro held its losses from Monday, having taken a hit from worries about the effects of the trade deal on the eurozone.The first of two days of negotiations between top US and Chinese officials in Stockholm concluded Monday with no details released, though there are hopes they will agree to extend a 90-day truce that ends on August 12.The two imposed triple-digit tariffs on each other earlier this year in a tit-for-tat escalation, but then walked them back under the temporary agreement reached in May.Investors are also looking ahead to a busy few days that includes earnings from tech titans Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon, as well as data on US economic growth and jobs creation.That all comes as the Fed concludes its policy meeting amid increasing pressure from Trump to slash rates, even with inflation staying stubbornly high.While it is expected to stand pat on borrowing costs, its post-meeting statement and comments from boss Jerome Powell will be pored over for clues about its plans for the second half of the year in light of the tariffs.Oil prices extended Monday’s rally after Trump shortened a deadline for Russia to end its war in Ukraine to August 7 or 9, following which he vowed to sanction countries buying its crude.- Key figures at around 0230 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.9 percent at 40,623.32 (break)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.1 percent at 25,290.03Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.1 percent at 3,595.46Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1592 from $1.1597 on MondayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3354 from $1.3356Dollar/yen: UP at 148.61 yen from 148.52 yenEuro/pound: UP at 86.81 pence from 86.80 penceWest Texas Intermediate: FLAT at $66.72 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.1 percent at $70.11 per barrelNew York – Dow: DOWN 0.1 percent at 44,837.56 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.4 percent at 9,081.44 (close)

Dollar rises on EU-US trade deal but European stocks turn sour

The dollar jumped Monday on the back of a US-EU trade deal, but the main European stock markets fell, reflecting unease at terms viewed as lopsided.Frankfurt closed sharply down, as shares in German carmakers plunged. Paris dipped, while London — outside the EU — also receded.Wall Street, meanwhile, finished mixed after a choppy session. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 edged to fresh records, while the Dow slipped.The US market’s “muted” reaction made sense given the heavy number of economic news releases this week that could move the market, said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global strategist at Edward Jones.”Because markets have run a lot in a short amount of time, we may get some good enough news, but they may not elicit the same reaction as some of the good news over the last couple of weeks when valuations were lower than they are today,” Kourkafas said. While Brussels defended the deal announced over the weekend as “better than a trade war with the United States,” several EU countries expressed unhappiness.European capitals saw the agreement’s 15 percent tariffs on most EU exports to the United States — but none on US exports to the EU — as skewed.As part of the deal, President Donald Trump said the bloc had agreed to purchase “$750 billion worth of energy” from the United States, and make $600 billion in additional investments.”While the deal has avoided a much worse outcome for now, it remains to be seen whether it will last,” cautioned Jack Allen-Reynolds, a eurozone economist at Capital Economics.With average US tariffs on EU imports now around 17 percent, “we think this will reduce EU GDP by about 0.2 percent,” he said.He predicted that “uncertainty is likely to remain high” because Trump “could still change his mind even after the deal has been finalized and signed.”Oil prices rose strongly.That was partly on relief from the deal — but also because Trump shortened a deadline for Russia to end its war in Ukraine to August 7 or 9, after which he vowed to sanction countries buying its crude.Monday also saw the start of a fresh round of trade negotiations between China and the United States ahead of August 12, when a 90-day truce between the economic superpowers is scheduled to end.Shares in European companies tracked the unease at the EU-US deal.Volkswagen, BMW and Porsche all shed more than three percent as the implications of high tariffs on their exports to the United States sank in. In Paris, shares in Pernod Ricard, which exports wine and spirits to the United States, fell more than three percent.Traders were prepared for a busy week in the United States, with a slew of corporate earnings reports — including from Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon — and macro data readings coming their way giving indications about US jobs and growth.The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week, with investors focused on its outlook for the rest of the year given Trump’s tariffs and recent trade deals.- Key figures at around 2030 GMT -New York – Dow: DOWN 0.1 percent at 44,837.56 (close)New York – S&P 500: UP less than 0.1 percent at 6,389.77 (close)New York – Nasdaq Composite: UP 0.3 percent at 21,178.58 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.4 percent at 9,081.44 (close)Paris – CAC 40: DOWN 0.4 percent at 7,800.88 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: DOWN 1.0 percent at 23,970.36 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.1 percent at 40,998.27 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.7 percent at 25,562.13 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 3,597.94 (close)Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1597 from $1.1742 on FridayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3356 from $1.3438Dollar/yen: UP at 148.52 yen from 147.69 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 86.80 pence from 87.39 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 2.3 percent at $70.04 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 2.4 percent at $66.71 per barrel

China and US wrap first day of trade talks

Chinese and US officials wrapped the first day in a fresh round of talks in Stockholm on Monday, with the world’s top two economies looking to extend a fragile trade truce in the face of President Donald Trump’s global tariff war.The talks came a day after Trump reached a deal with the EU that will see the bloc’s exports to the United States taxed at 15 percent.The negotiations in Sweden concluded shortly before 8:00 pm (1800 GMT), with neither side offering details on their progress, although a US Treasury department spokesman said they were expected to resume on Tuesday.The United States and China earlier this year imposed triple-digit tariffs on each other in a tit-for-tat escalation, but then walked them back under a temporary agreement reached in May.The expiry of that 90-day truce falls on August 12, but there are indications they could use the Stockholm talks to push it back further.The South China Morning Post, citing sources on both sides, reported on Sunday that Washington and Beijing are expected to extend their tariff pause by a further 90 days.Under the existing accord, US duties on Chinese goods have temporarily been lowered to 30 percent, and China’s countermeasures slashed to 10 percent.Dozens of other countries, though, face a Trump deadline of Friday this week to seal deals with Washington or see US tariffs against them rise.Beijing said ahead of the Stockholm meeting that it wants to see “reciprocity” in its trade with the United States.Foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said Beijing favoured “consensus through dialogue” to “reduce misunderstandings, strengthen cooperation and promote the stable, healthy and sustainable development of China-US relations”.The negotiating teams in Stockholm were being led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Sweden.They were meeting in the Rosenbad building, home to the Swedish government. The Chinese and US flags were raised in front of it for the talks.- ‘Shift’ seen in US approach -The previous round of China-US talks was held in London.”There seems to have been a fairly significant shift in (US) administration thinking on China since particularly the London talks,” said Emily Benson, head of strategy at Minerva Technology Futures.”The mood now is much more focused on what’s possible to achieve, on warming relations where possible and restraining any factors that could increase tensions,” she told AFP.Talks with China have not produced a deal but Benson said both countries have made progress, with certain rare earth and semiconductor flows restarting.”Secretary Bessent has also signalled that he thinks a concrete outcome will be to delay the 90-day tariff pause,” she said. “That’s also promising, because it indicates that something potentially more substantive is on the horizon.”US-China Business Council president Sean Stein said the most important thing from Stockholm “is the atmosphere coming out”.”The business community is optimistic that the two presidents will meet later this year, hopefully in Beijing,” he told AFP.Other countries in Trump’s tariffs crosshairs have been parsing Washington’s negotiations with China and the European Union for clues on what options they might have.The US president has imposed a baseline 10-percent rate on most countries around the world, but has vowed to raise that from August 1 on certain nations if they do not make a deal.He has threatened to hike tariffs up to 50 percent on partners such as Brazil and India.Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have already effectively raised duties on US imports to levels not seen since the 1930s, according to data from The Budget Lab research centre at Yale University.Trump has announced pacts so far with the European Union, Britain, Vietnam, Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines, although details have been sparse.The EU unveiled a pact with Washington on Sunday while South Korea is rushing to strike an agreement.Breakthroughs have been patchy since Washington promised a flurry of agreements after unveiling — and then swiftly postponing — tariff hikes targeting dozens of economies in April.burs-ft/rlp

China hopes for ‘reciprocity’ at trade talks with US in Stockholm

Chinese and US economic officials met for talks in Stockholm on Monday, with Beijing saying it wanted to see “reciprocity” in its trade with the United States.The Swedish prime minister’s office confirmed the talks, which are expected to last two days, were under way.The talks came a day after US President Donald Trump reached a deal that will see imports from the European Union taxed at 15 percent and the clock ticking down for many countries to reach deals or face high US tariffs.Beijing said on Monday it hoped the two sides could hold talks in the spirit of “mutual respect and reciprocity”.Foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said Beijing sought to “enhance consensus through dialogue and communication, reduce misunderstandings, strengthen cooperation and promote the stable, healthy and sustainable development of China-US relations”.For dozens of trading partners, failing to strike an agreement in the coming days means they could face significant tariff hikes on exports to the United States come Friday, August 1.The steeper rates, threatened against partners like Brazil and India, would raise the duties their products face from a “baseline” of 10 percent now to levels up to 50 percent.Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have already effectively raised duties on US imports to levels not seen since the 1930s, according to data from The Budget Lab research centre at Yale University.For now, all eyes are on discussions between Washington and Beijing as a delegation including US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets a Chinese team led by Vice Premier He Lifeng in Sweden.In Stockholm, Chinese and US flags were raised in front of Rosenbad, the seat of the Swedish government.While both countries in April imposed tariffs on each other’s products that reached triple-digit levels, US duties this year have temporarily been lowered to 30 percent and China’s countermeasures slashed to 10 percent.But the 90-day truce, instituted after talks in Geneva in May, is set to expire on August 12.Since the Geneva meeting, the two sides have convened in London to iron out disagreements.- China progress? -“There seems to have been a fairly significant shift in (US) administration thinking on China since particularly the London talks,” said Emily Benson, head of strategy at Minerva Technology Futures.”The mood now is much more focused on what’s possible to achieve, on warming relations where possible and restraining any factors that could increase tensions,” she told AFP.Talks with China have not produced a deal but Benson said both countries have made progress, with certain rare earth and semiconductor flows restarting.”Secretary Bessent has also signalled that he thinks a concrete outcome will be to delay the 90-day tariff pause,” she said. “That’s also promising, because it indicates that something potentially more substantive is on the horizon.”The South China Morning Post, citing sources on both sides, reported Sunday that Washington and Beijing are expected to extend their tariff pause by another 90 days.Trump has announced pacts so far with the European Union, Britain, Vietnam, Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines, although details have been sparse.An extension of the US-China deal to keep tariffs at reduced levels “would show that both sides see value in continuing talks”, said Thibault Denamiel, a fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.US-China Business Council president Sean Stein said the market was not anticipating a detailed readout from Stockholm: “What’s more important is the atmosphere coming out.””The business community is optimistic that the two presidents will meet later this year, hopefully in Beijing,” he told AFP.”It’s clear that on both sides, the final decision-maker is going to be the president.”For others, the prospect of higher US tariffs and few details from fresh trade deals mark “a far cry from the ideal scenario”, said Denamiel.But they show some progress, particularly with partners Washington has signalled are on its priority list like the EU, Japan, the Philippines and South Korea.The EU unveiled a pact with Washington on Sunday while Seoul is rushing to strike an agreement, after Japan and the Philippines already reached the outlines of deals.Breakthroughs have been patchy since Washington promised a flurry of agreements after unveiling, and then swiftly postponing, tariff hikes targeting dozens of economies in April.burs-rl/cw

Stock markets, dollar rise on EU-US trade deal

Stock markets and the dollar advanced Monday after the European Union and United States struck a deal to avert a damaging trade war.The deal, announced by President Donald Trump and European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday, followed several US trade agreements last week, including one with Japan, and comes ahead of a new round of China-US talks.The Paris stock market climbed 0.6 percent and Frankfurt gained 0.3 percent in early afternoon deals, while London flattened.Britain, which had already struck a deal on tariffs with the United States, is outside the EU. That agreement has helped push London’s benchmark FTSE 100 index to record highs in recent weeks.Trump and von der Leyen announced at his golf resort in Scotland that a baseline tariff of 15 percent would be levied on EU exports to the United States.”To many this seems a very one-sided deal, but the optimism shows throughout European equities” with investors welcoming at least the “clarity” it brought, said Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Rostro trading group.The levies would apply across the board, including for Europe’s crucial automobile sector, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.”It’s a good deal,” von der Leyen said, adding that it will bring “stability” and “predictability”.Germany’s main auto industry group, the VDA, warned however that the 15-percent tariff on EU exports “burdens” carmakers. Shares in Volkswagen, Porsche and Mercedes were each down around one percent in Frankfurt. As part of the deal, Trump said the 27-nation EU bloc had agreed to purchase “$750 billion worth of energy” from the United States, as well as make $600 billion in additional investments.French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban slammed the deal. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said he backed it, but “without any enthusiasm”.”There remains a prevailing sense that the agreement does not constitute a significant win,” said Jochen Stanzl, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets.”While it is positive that an escalation of tariffs has been avoided, the deal feels more like a compromise than a triumph,” he added.- US-China talks -In Asia, Hong Kong and Shanghai advanced, boosted by relief that countries were reaching deals with Washington.While Tokyo fell for a second day, having soared around five percent on Wednesday and Thursday in reaction to Japan’s US deal.The broad gains came after another record day on Friday for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Wall Street.Traders prepared for a busy week with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng holding new trade talks in Stockholm. A 90-day truce, set to expire August 12, has seen US tariffs lowered to 30 percent and China’s to 10 percent after both sides imposed triple-digit duties in April.Also on the agenda are earnings from tech titans Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft, as well as data on US economic growth and jobs.The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week, with investors focused on its outlook for the rest of the year given Trump’s tariffs and recent trade deals.The Bank of Japan is also forecast to hold off on any big moves on borrowing costs.- Key figures at around 1040 GMT -London – FTSE 100: FLAT at 9,116.29 pointsParis – CAC 40: UP 0.6 percent at 7,879.15 Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.3 percent at 24,285.13Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.1 percent at 40,998.27 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.7 percent at 25,562.13 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 3,597.94 (close)New York – Dow: UP 0.5 percent at 44,901.92 (close)Dollar/yen: UP at 148.34 yen from 147.68 yen on FridayEuro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1668 from $1.1738Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3420 from $1.3431Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.93 pence from 87.40 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 1.1 percent at $68.39 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 1.1 percent at $65.89 per barrel

CK Hutchison eyes ‘major’ Chinese investor for Panama ports deal

Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison said Monday it was considering inviting a Chinese “major strategic investor” to join a US-led consortium negotiating the sale of its global ports business outside China, including operations at the Panama Canal.The firm said in March it was offloading the ports — including operations in the vital Central American waterway — to a group led by asset manager BlackRock for $19 billion in cash.The sale was seen as a political victory for US President Donald Trump, who had vowed to “take back” the Panama Canal from alleged Chinese control, prompting Beijing’s ire.China’s market regulator said in March it was reviewing the deal.”(CK Hutchison) remains in discussions with members of the consortium with a view to inviting (a) major strategic investor from (China) to join as a significant member of the consortium,” CK Hutchison said in a stock exchange filing Monday.The firm added that changes to the consortium’s membership and deal structure will be needed for the deal “to be capable of being approved by all relevant authorities”.It said the “period for exclusive negotiations” mentioned in the March announcement had expired, but discussions will continue.It did not name the major investor.China’s biggest shipping company Cosco was set to join the consortium and was requesting veto rights or equivalent powers, Bloomberg News reported.Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Denise Wong told the outlet that “ongoing negotiations and the reported inclusion of Cosco Shipping in the consortium have likely eased concerns over Chinese regulatory hurdles, strengthening investor confidence in the deal’s viability”.- ‘Keeping everyone happy’ -Gary Ng, senior economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, said Monday’s developments show that “business deals can be increasingly subject to politics in the new economic and geopolitical reality” as the Hong Kong conglomerate seeks to “keep everyone happy”.CK Hutchison said it “intends to allow such time as is required for such discussions to achieve” a workable arrangement. It said it had stated on several occasions that it “will not proceed with any transaction that does not have the approval of all relevant authorities”.Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said Beijing will “carry out supervision in accordance with the law, firmly safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests, and maintain a fair and just market”.CK Hutchison’s Hong Kong-listed shares fell 0.84 percent on Monday, while Cosco dropped 2.85 percent.The consortium’s original structure was designed to pass control of CK Hutchison’s two Panama ports to BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners unit, while the remaining ports will go to Italian billionaire Gianluigi Aponte’s Terminal Investment Limited.AFP has contacted Cosco for comment.The Panama Ports Company, a CK Hutchison subsidiary, has managed the port of Cristobal on the canal’s Atlantic side and Balboa on the Pacific side since 1997, via a concession from the Panama government.

Stock markets boosted after EU, US strike trade deal

Stock markets rose in Europe and Asia on Monday after the European Union and United States hammered out a deal to avert a potentially damaging trade war.News of the deal, announced by Donald Trump and European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday, followed a series of US trade agreements last week, including with Japan, and comes ahead of a new round of China-US talks.Investors were also gearing up for a busy week of data, central bank decisions and earnings from some of the world’s biggest companies.Trump and von der Leyen announced at his golf resort in Scotland that a baseline tariff of 15 percent would be levied on EU exports to the United States.”We’ve reached a deal. It’s a good deal for everybody. This is probably the biggest deal ever reached in any capacity,” Trump said, adding that the levies would apply across the board, including for Europe’s crucial automobile sector, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.Brussels also agreed to purchase “$750 billion worth of energy” from the United States, as well as make $600 billion in additional investments.”It’s a good deal,” von der Leyen said. “It will bring stability. It will bring predictability. That’s very important for our businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.”Equities built on their recent rally, fanned by relief that countries were reaching deals with Washington.Paris rose one percent, with Frankfurt and London also tracking gains in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington, Taipei and Jakarta.Tokyo fell for a second day, having soared about five percent on Wednesday and Thursday in reaction to Japan’s US deal. Singapore, Manila and Mumbai were also lower.The broad gains came after another record day for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Wall Street.”The news flow from both the extension with China and the agreement with the EU is clearly market-friendly, and should put further upside potential into the euro… and should also put renewed upside into EU equities,” said Chris Weston at Pepperstone.Traders are gearing up for a packed week, with a delegation including US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent holding fresh trade talks with a Chinese team headed by Vice Premier He Lifeng in Stockholm.While in April both countries imposed tariffs that reached triple-digits, US duties this year have temporarily been lowered to 30 percent and China’s countermeasures slashed to 10 percent.The 90-day truce, instituted after talks in Geneva in May, is set to expire on August 12.China said it was seeking “mutual respect and reciprocity” in the talks.Also on the agenda are earnings from tech titans Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft, as well as data on US economic growth and jobs.The Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting is expected to conclude with officials standing pat on interest rates, though investors are keen to see what their views are on the outlook for the rest of the year in light of Trump’s tariffs and recent trade deals.”We think the data supports a Fed on hold in July, but absent a significant upside surprise in the upcoming inflation data, September could be a ‘live’ meeting for a resumption of rate cuts, especially if economic activity data and possibly overwhelming political pressure force the Fed’s hand,” said Michael Krautzberger at Allianz.The Bank of Japan is also forecast to hold off on any big moves on borrowing costs.- Key figures at around 0715 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.1 percent at 40,998.27 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.7 percent at 25,562.13 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 3,597.94 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.3 percent at 9,143.68Dollar/yen: UP at 148.14 yen from 147.68 yen on FridayEuro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1687 from $1.1738Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3418 from $1.3431Euro/pound: DOWN at 87.10 pence from 87.40 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.3 percent at $65.34 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.3 percent at $68.67 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.5 percent at 44,901.92 (close)

Most markets rise, euro boosted after EU strikes US trade deal

Most stock markets rose with the euro Monday after the European Union and United States hammered out the “biggest-ever” deal to avert a potentially damaging trade war.News of the deal, announced by Donald Trump and European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday, followed US agreements last week, including with Japan, and comes ahead of a new round of China-US talks.Investors were also gearing up for a busy week of data, central bank decisions and earnings from some of the world’s biggest companies.Trump and von der Leyen announced at his golf resort in Scotland that a baseline tariff of 15 percent would be levied on EU exports to the United States.”We’ve reached a deal. It’s a good deal for everybody. This is probably the biggest deal ever reached in any capacity,” Trump said, adding that the levies would apply across the board, including for Europe’s crucial automobile sector, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.Brussels also agreed to purchase “$750 billion worth of energy” from the United States, as well as make $600 billion in additional investments.”It’s a good deal,” von der Leyen said. “It will bring stability. It will bring predictability. That’s very important for our businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.”The news boosted the euro, which jumped to $1.1779 from Friday’s close of $1.1749.And equities built on their recent rally, fanned by relief that countries were reaching deals with Washington.Hong Kong led winners, jumping around one percent, with Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington, Taipei and Jakarta also up, along with European and US futures.Tokyo fell for a second day, having soared about five percent on Wednesday and Thursday in reaction to Japan’s US deal. Singapore and Seoul were also lower.The broad gains came after another record day for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Wall Street.”The news flow from both the extension with China and the agreement with the EU is clearly market-friendly, and should put further upside potential into the euro… and should also put renewed upside into EU equities,” said Chris Weston at Pepperstone.Traders are gearing up for a packed week, with a delegation including US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent holding fresh trade talks with a Chinese team headed by Vice Premier He Lifeng in Stockholm.While both countries in April imposed tariffs on each other’s products that reached triple-digit levels, US duties this year have temporarily been lowered to 30 percent and China’s countermeasures slashed to 10 percent.The 90-day truce, instituted after talks in Geneva in May, is set to expire on August 12.Also on the agenda are earnings from tech titans Amazon, Apple, Meta Microsoft, as well as data on US economic growth and jobs.The Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting is expected to conclude with officials standing pat on interest rates, though investors are keen to see what their views are on the outlook for the rest of the year in light of Trump’s tariffs and recent trade deals.The Bank of Japan is also forecast to hold off on any big moves on borrowing costs.- Key figures at around 0230 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.7 percent at 41,148.07 (break)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.0 percent at 25,631.28Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.3 percent at 3,602.97Dollar/yen: UP at 147.74 yen from 147.68 yen on FridayEuro/dollar: UP at $1.1755 from $1.1738Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3436 from $1.3431Euro/pound: UP at 87.48 pence from 87.40 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.5 percent at $65.48 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.5 percent at $68.80 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.5 percent at 44,901.92 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.2 percent at 9,120.31 (close)

US-China set to meet with extension of tariff pause on the cards

Top economic officials from the United States and China are set to renew negotiations Monday — with an extension of lower tariff levels on the cards — as President Donald Trump’s trade policy enters a critical week.Talks between the world’s top two economies are slated to happen over two days in the Swedish capital Stockholm, and they come as other countries are also rushing to finalise deals with Washington.For dozens of trading partners, failing to strike an agreement in the coming days means they could face significant tariff hikes on exports to the United States come Friday, August 1.The steeper rates, threatened against partners like Brazil and India, would raise the duties their products face from a “baseline” of 10 percent now to levels up to 50 percent.Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have already effectively raised duties on US imports to levels not seen since the 1930s, according to data from The Budget Lab research centre at Yale University.For now, all eyes are on discussions between Washington and Beijing as a delegation including US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets a Chinese team led by Vice Premier He Lifeng in Sweden.While both countries in April imposed tariffs on each other’s products that reached triple-digit levels, US duties this year have temporarily been lowered to 30 percent and China’s countermeasures slashed to 10 percent.But the 90-day truce, instituted after talks in Geneva in May, is set to expire on August 12.Since the Geneva meeting, the two sides have convened in London to iron out disagreements.- China progress? -“There seems to have been a fairly significant shift in (US) administration thinking on China since particularly the London talks,” said Emily Benson, head of strategy at Minerva Technology Futures.”The mood now is much more focused on what’s possible to achieve, on warming relations where possible and restraining any factors that could increase tensions,” she told AFP.Talks with China have not produced a deal but Benson said both countries have made progress, with certain rare earth and semiconductor flows restarting.”Secretary Bessent has also signalled that he thinks a concrete outcome will be to delay the 90-day tariff pause,” she said. “That’s also promising, because it indicates that something potentially more substantive is on the horizon.”The South China Morning Post, citing sources on both sides, reported Sunday that Washington and Beijing are expected to extend their tariff pause by another 90 days.Trump has announced pacts so far with the European Union, Britain, Vietnam, Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines, although details have been sparse.An extension of the US-China deal to keep tariffs at reduced levels “would show that both sides see value in continuing talks”, said Thibault Denamiel, a fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.US-China Business Council President Sean Stein said the market is not anticipating a detailed readout from Stockholm: “What’s more important is the atmosphere coming out.””The business community is optimistic that the two presidents will meet later this year, hopefully in Beijing,” he told AFP. “It’s clear that on both sides, the final decision-maker is going to be the president.”Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said both countries’ willingness to meet was a “positive development”. – Far from ideal -For others, the prospect of higher US tariffs and few details from fresh trade deals mark “a far cry from the ideal scenario”, said Denamiel.But they show some progress, particularly with partners Washington has signalled are on its priority list like the EU, Japan, the Philippines and South Korea.The EU unveiled a pact with Washington on Sunday while Seoul is rushing to strike an agreement, after Japan and the Philippines already reached the outlines of deals.Breakthroughs have been patchy since Washington promised a flurry of agreements after unveiling, and then swiftly postponing, tariff hikes targeting dozens of economies in April.Denamiel warned of overlooking countries that fall outside Washington’s priority list.Solid partnerships are needed, he said, if Washington wants to diversify supply chains, enforce advanced technology controls, and tackle excess Chinese capacity.