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India exporters cautiously optimistic as US tariff deadline looms

Indian exporters are anxiously eyeing the possible reintroduction of Donald Trump’s punishing tariffs next week, though many hold out hope for a last-minute reprieve.The US president’s April 2 “Liberation Day” announcement of swingeing levies on dozens of key trading partners sent shockwaves through capitals before he announced a pause for negotiations, which ends next Wednesday.New Delhi and Washington have been locked in multiple rounds of talks, with hopes for an interim pact to avert the 26 percent “reciprocal” tolls meted out to India.The tariffs, which came on top of 10 percent levies across the board for every country, were imposed for what the White House says are unfair US trade deficits.While India — the world’s most populous country — is not a manufacturing powerhouse, it still ran up a $45.7 billion trade surplus with the United States last year.And now some of its most labour-intensive exports, including electronics, gems and jewellery and shrimp, are under threat.Exporters are “optimistic” that India may be able to carve out a bilateral agreement on the “trade side at least”, Ajay Sahai, Director General of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, told AFP.But he added that it was “quite a fluid situation”, suggesting one outcome could see the deadline extended, given that India is “constructively engaged” with Washington.”The feedback which I am getting suggests positive developments either way — and we are hopeful,” he added.India’s seafood industry is seeing “some amount of anxiety”, but also “more reason for hope”, said KN Raghavan, Secretary General, Seafood Exporters Association of India.He did not give details, but said a “solution appears to be in the anvil”.US officials have been upbeat about the prospect of an agreement.Trump on Tuesday raised the possibility of an agreement, saying it is “going to be a different kind of a deal”.”It’s going to be a deal where we’re able to go in and compete,” he added. “Right now, India doesn’t accept anybody in. I think India is going to do that, and if they do that, we’re going to have a deal for much less tariffs.”His Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said last month that a pact could be expected in the “not too distant future”.However, Indian media reports on Tuesday, quoting unnamed sources, struck a more neutral tone, saying negotiators were still working to resolve key differences that had cropped up during talks.- ‘Alternative sources’ -An Indian commerce ministry official told AFP that New Delhi’s unmet demands included relief from separate sectoral tariffs on steel and aluminium as well a greater access for labour-intensive exports including textiles and footwear. They have also spoken of disagreements over Washington’s push to have India open up its agriculture sector and allow freer trade of American farm produce. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said she was eager for a deal.”I’d love to have an agreement, a big, good, beautiful one; why not?” she told India’s Financial Express newspaper, in an interview printed on Monday.Sitharaman, however, added that “agriculture and dairy” are the “very big red lines”.Experts believe a smaller agreement is still possible ahead of the deadline.”The more likely outcome is a limited trade pact,” said Ajay Srivastava of Global Trade Research Initiative, a New Delhi-based think-tank in a recent note.Srivastava said that under such a deal, India could cut tariffs on a range of industrial goods and offer limited access for US agricultural produce — in return for Trump dropping the 26 percent levies.But he also warned that talks “may collapse” if Washington “continues to insist on opening India’s core agriculture sectors or allowing entry of GMO (genetically modified organism) products”.And seafood exporters remain on edge as talks go down to the wire.”Currently, exporters believe they can manage with a 10 percent tariff, as it can be absorbed. But if it goes back up to 25 percent to 30 percent levels, we could see American buyers finding alternative sources,” Raghavan said.”They will find some other cheaper source,” he added.

Philippines biodiversity hotspot pushes back on mining

A nickel stockpile towers over farmer Moharen Tambiling’s rice paddy in the Philippines’ Palawan, evidence of a mining boom that locals hope a new moratorium will tame.”They told us before the start of their operations that it wouldn’t affect us, but the effects are undeniable now,” Tambiling told AFP.”Pangolins, warthogs, birds are disappearing. Flowers as well.”A biodiversity hotspot, Palawan also holds vast deposits of nickel, needed for everything from stainless steel to electric vehicles.Once the world’s largest exporter of the commodity, the Philippines is now racing to catch up with Indonesia. In 2021, Manila lifted a nine-year ban on mining licences. Despite promised jobs and tax revenue, there is growing pushback against the sector in Palawan.In March, the island’s governing council unanimously passed a 50-year moratorium on any new mining permits.”Flash floods, the siltation of the sea, fisheries, mangrove areas… We are witnesses to the effects of long-term mining,” Nieves Rosento, a former local councillor who led the push, told AFP.Environmental rights lawyer Grizelda Mayo-Anda said the moratorium could stop nearly 70 proposed projects spanning 240,000 hectares.”You have to protect the old-growth forest, and it’s not being done,” she said.From 2001 to 2024, Palawan dubbed the country’s “last ecological frontier” — lost 219,000 hectares of tree cover, more than any other province, in part due to mining, according to Global Forest Watch.- ‘Fearsome’ flooding -In southern Palawan’s Brooke’s Point, a Chinese ship at a purpose-built pier waits for ore from the stockpile overlooking Tambiling’s farm.Mining company Ipilan says increased production will result in greater royalties for Indigenous people and higher tax revenues, but that means little to Tambiling’s sister Alayma.The single mother-of-six once made 1,000-5,000 pesos ($18-90) a day selling lobster caught where the pier now sits.”We were surprised when we saw backhoes digging up the shore,” she told AFP, calling a one-time compensation offer of 120,000 pesos ($2,150) insulting.”The livelihood of all the Indigenous peoples depended on that area.”On the farm, Tambiling stirred rice paddy mud to reveal reddish laterite he says is leaking from the ore heap and poisoning his crops.Above him, swathes of the Mantalingahan mountains have been deforested, producing floods he describes as “fearsome, deep and fast-moving.”Ipilan has faced protests and legal challenges over its logging, but its operations continue.Calls to parent company Global Ferronickel Holdings were not returned.For some in Palawan, the demand for nickel to power EVs has a certain irony.”You may be able to… eliminate pollution using electric vehicles,” said Jeminda Bartolome, an anti-mining advocate.”But you should also study what happens to the area you are mining.”- ‘First-class municipality’ -In Bataraza, the country’s oldest nickel mine is expanding, having secured permission before the moratorium.Rio Tuba employees armed with brooms, goggles, hats and scarves are barely visible through reddish dust as they sweep an access road that carries 6,000 tonnes of ore destined for China each day.Company senior vice president Jose Bayani Baylon said mining turned a barely accessible malarial swamp into a “first-class municipality”.”You have an airport, you have a port, you have a community here. You have a hospital, you have infrastructure which many other communities don’t have,” he told AFP.He dismisses environmental concerns as overblown.With part of its concession tapped out, the company is extending into an area once off-limits to logging but since rezoned.Thousands of trees have been cleared since January, according to locals, but Baylon said “under the law, for every tree you cut, you have to plant 100″.The company showed AFP a nine-hectare plot it spent 15 years restoring with native plants.But it is unclear to what degree that will be replicated. Baylon concedes some areas could become solar farms instead.- ‘Four kilos of rice’ -Nearby, Indigenous resident Kennedy Coria says mining has upset Mount Bulanjao’s ecosystem.”Honeybees disappeared where we used to find them. Fruit trees in the forest stopped bearing fruit,” the father-of-seven said.A fifth of the Philippines’ Indigenous land is covered by mining and exploration permits, according to rights group Global Witness. Legally, they have the right to refuse projects and share profits, but critics say the process is rarely clear.”There are Indigenous peoples who have not received any royalties for the past 10 years,” said Rosento.Coria, who can neither read nor write, said he must sign a document each year when accepting what he is told is his share of Rio Tuba profits.”We get about four kilos of rice from the community leader, who tells us it came from the company,” he said.Rio Tuba said funds are distributed in coordination with the National Commission on Indigenous People (NCIP), which is meant to represent the communities.But some say it acts in the interests of miners, attempting to persuade locals to accept concessions and the terms offered by companies.The NCIP referred questions to multiple regional offices, none of which replied. The government’s industry regulator declined interview requests. While Palawan’s moratorium will not stop Rio Tuba’s expansion or Ipilan’s operations, supporters believe it will slow further mining.Ryan Maminta, a councillor who backed the moratorium said it already halted one expansion.There are looming legal challenges, however.A recent Supreme Court decision struck down a mining ban in Occidental Mindoro province.Backers remain confident though, and Rosento said the council would stand firm.”Responsible mining is just a catchphrase,” she said.

US, Japan, India, Australia pledge mineral cooperation on China jitters

The United States, Japan, India and Australia pledged Tuesday to work together to ensure a stable supply of critical minerals, as worries grow over China’s dominance in resources vital to new technologies.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio welcomed his counterparts from the so-called “Quad” to Washington in a shift of focus to Asia, after spending much of his first six months on the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and on President Donald Trump’s domestic priorities such as migration.The four countries said in a joint statement that they were establishing the Quad Critical Minerals Initiative, aimed at “collaborating on securing and diversifying” supply chains.They offered little detail but made clear the goal was to reduce reliance on China, which has used restrictions as leverage as the United States in turn curbs its access to semiconductors and as Trump threatens steep tariffs — including on Quad countries.”Reliance on any one country for processing and refining critical minerals and derivative goods production exposes our industries to economic coercion, price manipulation and supply chain disruptions,” the statement said.The ministers were careful not to mention China by name but voiced “serious concerns regarding dangerous and provocative actions” in the South China Sea and East China Sea that “threaten peace and stability in the region.”China holds major reserves of several key minerals including the vast majority of the world’s graphite, which is crucial for electric vehicles.In brief remarks alongside the other ministers, Rubio said he has “personally been very focused” on diversifying supply chains and wanted “real progress.”- US refocus on Asia -The four-way partnership was first conceived by late Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, who saw an alliance of democracies surrounding China — which has repeatedly alleged that the Quad is a way to contain it.Rubio had welcomed the Quad foreign ministers on January 21 in his first meeting after Trump’s inauguration, seen as a sign the new administration would prioritize engagement with like-minded countries to counter China.But to the surprise of many, China has not topped the early agenda of Trump, who has spoken respectfully about his counterpart Xi Jinping and reached a truce with Beijing to avoid a wider trade war between the world’s two largest economies.Trump is expected to travel to India later this year for a Quad summit. Both the Indian and Japanese foreign ministers said that they wanted the Quad to focus on a “free and open Indo-Pacific” — a phrasing that is a veiled allusion to opposing Chinese dominance in Asia.”It is essential that nations of the Indo-Pacific have the freedom of choice, so essential to make right decisions on development and security,” Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said.At Jaishankar’s urging, the Quad condemned a May attack on the Indian side of Kashmir that killed mostly Hindu civilians and called for “the perpetrators, organizers and financiers of this reprehensible act to be brought to justice without any delay.”India in May launched air strikes in Pakistan, which it blamed for the attack. Pakistan denied responsibility and responded with its own attacks on the Indian military.In a key concern for Japan, the Quad condemned North Korea for its “destabilizing launches” of missiles and insisted on its “complete denuclearization.”Trump, in one of the most startling moves of his first term, met with North Korea’s reclusive leader Kim Jong Un, helping ease tensions but producing no lasting agreement.Despite common ground on China, Quad members have differed on other hotspots, with the joint statement not mentioning Ukraine or Iran.India has maintained its long relationship with Russia despite the invasion of Ukraine, while both India and Japan also have historically enjoyed cordial ties with Iran.

Global stocks mixed as markets track US trade deal prospects

Global stocks were mixed Tuesday as markets monitored congressional progress on Donald Trump’s massive tax and spending legislation and weighed the prospects for US trade deals ahead of Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline.The Republican-led upper congressional chamber narrowly cleared Trump’s mammoth domestic policy bill, sending the measure back to the House of Representatives, where the vote is also expected to be close.Equity market viewers have cheered the prospects of extending tax cuts while expressing misgivings about projections that the measure will add some $3 trillion to the US national debt.The Dow advanced Tuesday, while both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreated from records.Earlier European markets had also ended mixed, while Japan’s Nikkei suffered a 1.2 percent drop after Trump threatened new levies on Japan over a row about the country accepting US rice exports.”The next few days are going to be testing times for governments in many parts of the world as they try to hammer out trade deals with the US,” said Dan Coatsworth, an investment analyst at AJ Bell.While few trade agreements have been reached so far, the week began with some optimism as Canada and the United States agreed to restart trade talks after Ottawa scrapped a digital services tax contested by US tech giants.Comments from Trump and some of his top officials also suggested the deadline was flexible, and that several pacts were nearly completed.”We expect risk sentiment to remain shaky until a deal is agreed… investors are on pause for now and are waiting for concrete news before making their next move,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at trading group XTB. The dollar extended its retreat against the euro and other major currencies.The Dollar Index, which compares the greenback to a basket of major currencies, fell 10.8 percent in the first half of the year, its steepest decline since the dollar became the global benchmark currency. Investors increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates at least twice this year — with Trump having loudly criticized Fed chief Jerome Powell for not doing so sooner — and all eyes will be on US jobs data due this week.Powell responded on Tuesday at a central bankers’ gathering in Portugal, insisting that the Fed must remain “completely non-political” to successfully pursue its strategy of financial and economic stability.Among individual companies, Tesla fell 5.3 percent as the electric car company’s CEO Elon Musk sparred with Trump over the tax and spending bill. After Musk lambasted the legislation as wasteful and misguided, Trump warned of retribution against Tesla and other Musk ventures. “This high-profile feud introduces political risk,” Briefing.com said of the tiff.”The personal nature of the conflict, amplified by Trump’s comments implying Tesla’s reliance on subsidies for survival, has sparked fears of broader policy shifts targeting Musk’s business empire. This political uncertainty undermines investor confidence.” – Key figures at around 2050 GMT -New York – Dow: UP 0.9 percent at 44,494.94 (close)New York – S&P 500: DOWN 0.1 percent at 6,198.01 (close)New York – Nasdaq: DOWN 0.8 percent at 20,202.89 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.3 percent at 8,785.33 points (close)Paris – CAC 40: FLAT at 7,662.59 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: DOWN 1.0 percent at 23,673.29 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.2 percent at 39,986.33 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.4 percent at 3,457.75 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: Closed for holiday Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1806 from $1.1787 on MondayPound/dollar: UP at $1.3740 from $1.3732Dollar/yen: DOWN at 143.41 yen from 144.03 yenEuro/pound: UP at 85.87 pence from 85.82 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.6 percent at $67.11 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.5 percent at $65.45 per barrel

Stocks diverge while tracking US trade deal prospects

European stocks ended mixed on Tuesday while Wall Street indices diverged after marching towards records as investors weighed up the prospects for US trade deals ahead of President Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline.Asian markets ended mixed after both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit records on Monday, with Shanghai rising but Tokyo sinking more than one percent after Trump threatened more tariffs on Japan in a row over rice and autos. Profit-taking pulled those two indices lower in early US deals, while the Dow continued to close in on a record high.”The next few days are going to be testing times for governments in many parts of the world as they try to hammer out trade deals with the US,” said Dan Coatsworth, an investment analyst at AJ Bell.While few trade agreements have been reached so far, the week began with some optimism as Canada and the United States agreed to restart trade talks after Ottawa scrapped a digital services tax contested by US tech giants.Comments from Trump and some of his top officials also suggested the deadline was flexible, and that several pacts were nearly completed.”We expect risk sentiment to remain shaky until a deal is agreed… investors are on pause for now and are waiting for concrete news before making their next move,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at trading group XTB.The dollar managed to advance but remained under pressure after its worst start to the year since 1973, with confidence deteriorating among many foreign investors since Trump returned to the White House.The Dollar Index, which compares the greenback to a basket of major currencies, fell 10.8 percent in the first half of the year, its steepest decline since the dollar became the global benchmark currency. Investors increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates at least twice this year — with Trump having loudly criticised Fed chief Jerome Powell for not doing so sooner — and all eyes will be on US jobs data due this week.Powell hit back on Tuesday at a central bankers’ gathering in Portugal, insisting that the Fed must remain “completely non-political” to successfully pursue its strategy of financial and economic stability.Investors are also keeping an eye on Trump’s multitrillion-dollar tax-cutting bill, whose passage remains uncertain over concerns that it will add $3 trillion to US deficits.The dollar’s recent weakness reflects “ongoing concerns over trade, tariffs, national debt and central bank independence”, said David Morrison at Trade Nation.The Tokyo market drop came after Trump threatened to impose a fresh levy on Japan over a row about the country not buying US rice.Japan has seen rice prices double over the past year owing to supply issues caused by various factors, piling pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ahead of elections this month.Trump also hit out at what he considered an unfair balance in the trade in cars between the two countries, and floated the idea of keeping a 25-percent tariff on autos in place.- Key figures at around 1540 GMT -New York – Dow: UP 0.9 percent at 44,481.84New York – S&P 500: DOWN 0.3 percent at 6,184.40New York – Nasdaq: DOWN 1.1 percent at 20,144.20London – FTSE 100: UP 0.3 percent at 8,785.33 points (close)Paris – CAC 40: FLAT at 7,662.59 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: DOWN 1.0 percent at 23,673.29 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.2 percent at 39,986.33 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.4 percent at 3,457.75 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: Closed for holiday Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1773 from $1.1785 on MondayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3708 from $1.3732Dollar/yen: DOWN at 143.63 yen from 143.98 yenEuro/pound: UP at 85.88 pence from 85.82 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.3 percent at $66.93 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.5 percent at $65.44 per barrel

BTS announces comeback for spring 2026

K-pop supergroup BTS on Tuesday announced their comeback in the spring of 2026 with an album and world tour, prompting a fan frenzy as millions eagerly await their return.South Korea’s most lucrative musical act has been on a self-described hiatus since 2022 as its members undertook the mandatory service required of all South Korean men under 30 due to tensions with the nuclear-armed North.With five members discharged from military service in June, many in the industry have been anticipating their comeback.”Starting in July… we’re planning to make something massive, so from then (this month), we’ll probably gather together and stay focused on making music,” band leader RM said on their superfan platform Weverse.”Our group album is officially set to be released next spring,” RM said during a live chat.”Starting next spring, we’ll of course be going on tour, so please look forward to seeing us all around the globe,” he added. The band also revealed their plans to head this month to the United States, where all seven members will gradually regroup to begin music production and prepare for upcoming performances.If released in the spring of 2026, their comeback album would be their first in four years since “Proof”, which was the best-selling album of 2022 in South Korea, with nearly 3.5 million copies sold.Prior to their mandatory military service, the boy band generated more than 5.5 trillion won ($4 billion) in yearly economic impact, according to the Korea Culture and Tourism Institute.That accounts for roughly 0.2 percent of South Korea’s total GDP, according to official data.BTS holds the record as the most-streamed group on Spotify, and became the first K-pop act to top both the Billboard 200 and the Billboard Artist 100 charts in the United States.

Stocks struggle tracking US trade deal prospects

Most stock markets retreated Tuesday and the dollar dipped as investors weighed the prospect of US trade deals being made ahead of President Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline.European equities traded lower in early afternoon deals while Asian markets diverged, with Shanghai closing higher and Tokyo sinking more than one percent.Japanese stocks were hit by Trump’s threat of more tariffs on Japan in a row over rice and autos. “The next few days are going to be testing times for governments in many parts of the world as they try to hammer out trade deals with the US,” said Dan Coatsworth, an investment analyst at AJ Bell.While few trade agreements have been reached, the week began with some optimism as Canada and the United States agreed to restart trade talks, after Ottawa scrapped a digital services tax.Comments from Trump and some of his top officials also suggested some flexibility on the deadline, and that several pacts were nearly completed.European markets ticked lower in the absence of trade deal announcements between the European Union and the United States.”We expect risk sentiment to remain shaky until a deal is agreed… investors are on pause for now and are waiting for concrete news before making their next move,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at trading group XTB.Eurozone inflation increased slightly last month to the European Central Bank’s target of two percent, official data showed Tuesday. The dollar remained under pressure after its worst start to the year since 1973, with confidence deteriorating among many foreign investors since Trump returned to the White House.The Dollar Index, which compares the greenback to a basket of major currencies, fell 10.8 percent in the first half of the year, its steepest decline since the dollar became the global benchmark currency. Investors increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates at least twice this year, and all eyes will be on US jobs data due this week.In Asia, Shanghai rose, tracking the record highs on Wall Street the previous day, while Hong Kong was closed for a holiday. Tokyo market drop came after Trump threatened a fresh levy on Japan over a row about the country accepting US rice exports.Japan has seen rice prices double over the past year owing to supply issues caused by various factors, piling pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ahead of key elections this month.Trump’s outburst over the grain came after he had hit out at what he considered an unfair balance in the trade in cars between the two countries, and floated the idea of keeping 25 percent tariffs on autos in place.Investors are also keeping an eye on the US president’s multitrillion-dollar tax-cutting bill, which is being debated in the Senate.Trump has urged lawmakers to pass the bill by July 4 but its passage remains uncertain due to concerns that it will add $3 trillion to deficits.- Key figures at around 1100 GMT -London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.3 percent at 8,731.86 pointsParis – CAC 40: DOWN 0.3 percent at 7,645.18Frankfurt – DAX: DOWN 0.4 percent at 23,806.87Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.2 percent at 39,986.33 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.4 percent at 3,457.75 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: Closed for holiday New York – Dow: UP 0.6 percent at 44,094.77 (close)Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1812 from $1.1785 on MondayPound/dollar: UP at $1.3776 from $1.373bcp2Dollar/yen: DOWN at 142.96 yen from 143.98 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 85.74 pence from 85.82 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 1.0 percent at $67.39 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 1.1 percent at $65.80 per barrel

Indian capital bans fuel for old cars in anti-pollution bid

India’s capital banned fuel sales to ageing vehicles on Tuesday as authorities try to tackle the sprawling megacity’s hazardous air pollution.The city is regularly ranked one of the most polluted capitals globally with acrid smog blanketing its skyline every winter.At the peak of the smog, levels of PM2.5 pollutants — dangerous cancer-causing microparticles small enough to enter the bloodstream through the lungs — surge to more than 60 times the World Health Organization’s recommended daily maximum. Petrol cars older than 15 years, and diesel vehicles older than 10, were already banned from operating on New Delhi’s roads by a 2018 Supreme Court ruling.But millions flout the rules.According to official figures, over six million such vehicles are plying the city’s streets.The ban that came into force on Tuesday seeks to keep them off the roads by barring them from refuelling.Police and municipal workers were deployed at fuel stations across Delhi, where number plate-recognising cameras and loudspeakers were installed. “We have been instructed to call in scrap car dealers if such vehicles come in,” said a traffic policeman posted at a fuelling station in the city. From November, the ban will be extended to satellite cities around the capital, an area home to more than 32 million people.A study in the Lancet medical journal attributed 1.67 million premature deaths in India to air pollution in 2019.Each winter, vehicle and factory emissions couple with farm fires from surrounding states to wrap the city in a dystopian haze. Cooler temperatures and slow-moving winds worsen the situation by trapping deadly pollutants. Piecemeal government initiatives, such as partial restrictions on fossil fuel-powered transport and water trucks spraying mist to clear particulate matter from the air, have failed to make a noticeable impact. 

Asian stocks rise on trade deal hopes, Tokyo hit by Trump warning

Asian stocks rose Tuesday amid optimism countries will strike US trade deals, but Tokyo’s Nikkei sank after Donald Trump threatened to impose a fresh tariff rate on Japan as he hit out at Japan over rice and autos.The dollar fell again as investors grow increasingly confident the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least twice this year, with keen interest in US jobs data due this week.Investors are also keeping an eye on the progress of the US president’s signature multi-trillion-dollar tax-cutting bill, which is being debated in the Senate.While few trade agreements have been reached as the White House’s July 9 deadline approaches, equity markets are enjoying a healthy run-up on expectations that breakthroughs will be made or the timeline will be pushed back.Comments from Trump and some of his top officials suggesting there could be some wiggle room have added to the positive mood, with National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett telling CNBC a “double digit” number of pacts, including frameworks, were near.News that Canada had rescinded a tax affecting US tech firms, which had prompted Trump to halt trade talks, and restarted negotiations fuelled optimism that other governments would make deals.All three main indexes on Wall Street rose again Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each pushing to another record high, providing a springboard for Asia.Shanghai, Singapore, Seoul and Taipei led healthy gains across the region, while London, Paris and Frankfurt opened on the front foot.However, Tokyo, which has enjoyed a strong run in recent weeks, sank more than one percent after Trump threatened to impose a fresh levy on Japan over a row about the country accepting US rice exports.”I have great respect for Japan, they won’t take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “In other words, we’ll just be sending them a letter, and we love having them as a Trading Partner for many years to come,” he added.Japan has seen rice prices double over the past year owing to supply issues caused by various factors, piling pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ahead of key elections this month.Trump’s outburst over the grain came after he had hit out at what he considered an unfair balance in the trade in cars between the two countries, and floated the idea of keeping 25 percent tariffs on autos in place.”Trump has been shaking things up by expressing dissatisfaction with issues such as automobiles and rice, signaling a stall in trade negotiations with Japan,” Hideyuki Ishiguro, at Nomura Asset Management, said.”If the negotiations with Japan were to be unilaterally terminated or break down, it could undermine the assumptions behind investing in Japanese stocks.”The Nikkei was also hit by a stronger yen as expectations for a series of Fed rate cuts weigh on the dollar.The greenback has been hammered by speculation Trump will install someone willing to reduce rates quickly when central bank boss Jerome Powell leaves his post next year.The prospect of lower borrowing costs has pushed the Dollar Index, which compares the greenback to a basket of major currencies, to its lowest level since February 2022. While most observers see the Fed moving in September or October, non-farm payrolls figures due Friday will be keenly watched, with a soft reading likely to boost the chances of an earlier cut.Gold prices rose more than one percent to sit around $3,330 as the cheaper dollar and prospect of lower rates make the commodity more attractive to investors.Senators continue to debate Trump’s so-called “Big Beautiful Bill”, with its passage on a knife’s edge owing to wavering Republicans amid warnings it will add more than $3 trillion to deficits.The president has called for lawmakers to get the mega-bill, which extends tax cuts and slashes spending on key entitlements, to his desk by July 4.- Key figures at around 0715 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.2 percent at 39,986.33 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.4 percent at 3,457.75 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.3 percent at 8,782.85Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: Closed for holiday Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1788 from $1.1785 on MondayPound/dollar: UP at $1.3734 from $1.3732Dollar/yen: DOWN at 143.70 yen from 143.98 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 85.70 pence from 85.82 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.2 percent at $65.25 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.3 percent at $66.92 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.6 percent at 44,094.77 (close) 

Asian stocks rise on trade deal hopes, Tokyo hit by tariff warning

Asian stocks rose Tuesday amid optimism countries will strike US trade deals, though Tokyo’s Nikkei sank after Donald Trump threatened to impose a fresh tariff rate on Japan as he hit out at the country over rice and autos.The dollar also extended losses as investors grow increasingly confident the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice this year, with keen interest in US jobs data due this week.Investors are also keeping an eye on the progress of the US president’s signature multi-trillion-dollar tax-cutting bill, which is being debated in the Senate.While few agreements have been reached as the White House’s July 9 deadline approaches, equity markets are enjoying a healthy run-up on expectations that breakthroughs will be made or the timeline will be pushed back.Comments from Trump and some of his top officials suggesting there could be some wiggle room have added to the positive mood, with National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett telling CNBC a “double digit” number of pacts, including frameworks, were near.News that Canada had rescinded a tax affecting US tech firms, which had prompted Trump to halt trade talks, and restarted negotiations fuelled optimism that other governments would make deals.All three main indexes on Wall Street rose again Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each pushing to another record high, providing a springboard for Asia.Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Seoul and Taipei led healthy gains across the region.However, Tokyo, which has enjoyed a strong run in recent weeks, sank one percent after Trump threatened to impose a fresh levy on Japan over a row about the country accepting US rice exports.”I have great respect for Japan, they won’t take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “In other words, we’ll just be sending them a letter, and we love having them as a Trading Partner for many years to come,” he added.Japan has seen rice prices double over the past year owing to supply issues caused by various factors, piling pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ahead of key elections this month.Trump’s outburst over the grain came after he had hit out at what he considered an unfair balance in the trade in cars between the two countries, and floated the idea of keeping 25 percent tariffs on autos in place.”Trump has been shaking things up by expressing dissatisfaction with issues such as automobiles and rice, signaling a stall in trade negotiations with Japan,” Hideyuki Ishiguro, at Nomura Asset Management, said.”If the negotiations with Japan were to be unilaterally terminated or break down, it could undermine the assumptions behind investing in Japanese stocks.”The Nikkei was also hit by a stronger yen as expectations for a series of Fed rate cuts weigh on the dollar.The greenback has been hammered by speculation Trump will install someone willing to reduce rates quickly when central bank boss Jerome Powell leaves his post next year.The prospect of lower borrowing costs has pushed the Dollar Index, which compares the greenback to a basket of major currencies, to its lowest level since February 2022. While most observers see the Fed moving in September or October, non-farm payrolls figures due Friday will be keenly watched, with a soft reading likely to boost the chances of an earlier cut.Gold prices rose more than one percent to sit above $3,300 as lower rates makes the commodity more attractive to investors.Senators continue to debate Trump’s so-called “Big Beautiful Bill”, with its passage on a knife’s edge owing to wavering Republicans amid warnings it will add more than $3 trillion to deficits.The president has called for lawmakers to get the mega-bill, which extends tax cuts and slashes spending on key entitlements, to his desk by July 4.- Key figures at around 0230 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.0 percent at 40,081.61 (break)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.2 percent at 3,450.64Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: Closed for holidayEuro/dollar: UP at $1.1795 from $1.1785 on MondayPound/dollar: UP at $1.3740 from $1.3732Dollar/yen: DOWN at 143.63 yen from 143.98 yenEuro/pound: UP at 85.83 pence from 85.82 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.4 percent at $64.88 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.3 percent at $66.54 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.6 percent at 44,094.77 (close) London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.4 percent at 8,760.96 (close)