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Nepal faces economic fallout of September protest

When Nepal’s government was toppled in September after deadly youth-led protests against economic stagnation and corruption, many in the impoverished country hoped for a period of meaningful political change.But experts warn that the upheaval — which killed 76 people and left thousands of buildings including parliament damaged — has pushed the nation backwards economically.Three months on from the September 8–9 protests, and with three months to go before elections on March 5, Nepal faces daunting challenges including rising unemployment and collapsing foreign investment.”My family depended entirely on my salary,” said Kamal Gautam, who lost his job as a kitchen worker at the Hyatt Regency when it was closed after rioters looted the hotel.”It’s been three months since my salary stopped, and I have no idea how to support my family,” 40-year-old Gautan, the sole breadwinner for his family of four, told AFP in their cramped one-room home in Kathmandu.Protests, initially triggered by anger over a brief government ban on social media, were spearheaded by protesters under the loose “Gen Z” umbrella.But anger at economic woes and a political elite accused of creaming off cash had primed the Himalayan nation of 30 million people for upheaval.After police cracked down on the protesters, the riots spread and on the second day more than 2,700 structures were torched, looted or damaged.- ‘Economic uncertainty’ -A preliminary report from the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI) estimates losses exceeding $278 million, with nearly 15,000 people losing their jobs.Foreign direct investment commitments plunged 91 percent to just $14 million in the three months since mid-August, according to government data.Even before the unrest, the World Bank estimated that 82 percent of Nepal’s workforce was in informal employment, while one in five Nepalis aged 15–24 was jobless.In November, the bank revised its projections, warning that “reflecting the recent unrest and heightened political and economic uncertainty, real GDP growth is projected to slow to 2.1 percent” in 2025, from an earlier forecast of 5.1 percent.  It also raised its poverty estimate to 6.6 percent of the population this financial year, up from 6.2 percent. Some of Nepal’s largest companies — major contributors to state revenue — suffered heavy losses, including Bhat-Bhateni supermarkets, the Chaudhary Group conglomerate and the telecom provider Ncell.”Multinational companies are psychologically disturbed, even national entrepreneurs are in the position of wait and see,” economist Chandra Mani Adhikari told AFP.”We assume that, even now, only half of the country’s economy is running.”- ‘Loss is immense’ -Remittance inflows surged between mid-September and mid-October, crossing 200 billion Nepali rupees ($1.4 billion) in a single month for the first time. Remittances make up the equivalent of around a third of Nepal’s gross domestic product.Tourism — which contributes about 6.6 percent to GDP — was also hit hard. Visitor numbers plunged 18 percent year-on-year in September.In Pokhara, one of Nepal’s key tourist hubs, Hotel Sarowar was set ablaze.”The loss is immense,” chairman Bharat Raj Pahari told AFP. “It has directly affected 750 family members.”Mani Raj Lamichhane, the head of the Nepal Tourism Board in Pokhara for Gandaki province, estimated the industry lost more than $20 million. “Many tourists cancelled their travel to Pokhara, and hotel occupancy dropped by over 90 percent throughout September,” he said.While visitor numbers rebounded in November, the effects of the unrest continue to ripple, and workers like Kamal Gautam are still adrift.”I can neither go back to the village, nor can I live in this expensive city,” he said.

Asian stocks in retreat as traders eye Fed decision, tech earnings

Asian markets retreated Wednesday following a tepid day on Wall Street as investors bided their time ahead of a highly anticipated Federal Reserve policy announcement later in the day.Earnings from tech giants Oracle and Broadcom this week are also in view amid lingering worries about an AI-fuelled bubble that caused some panic on trading floors last month.With US central bankers expected to cut interest rates for the third straight session later Wednesday, the main focus is on their post-meeting statement, boss Jerome Powell’s news conference and the “dot plot” forecast for 2026 policy.After November’s tech-led swoon, markets have enjoyed a healthy run in recent weeks as weak jobs figures reinforced expectations for another step lower in borrowing costs.But that has cooled heading into the Fed gathering amid speculation it will announce a “hawkish cut” that plays down the chances of a fourth successive reduction.Data on Tuesday showing an uptick in job openings — against estimates for a drop — further tempered expectations for a string of cuts next year, with markets now pricing in two more over the next 12 months, compared with three previously seen.Pepperstone’s Chris Weston said the figures “catalysed a repricing of US forward Fed rate expectations”.After a weak day in New York, where the S&P 500 and Dow dropped, Asia fared no better.Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington, Jakarta and Manila all fell, though Taipei edged up and Seoul was flat.Still, there is some hope that the Fed will turn more dovish next year with President Donald Trump’s top economic aide Kevin Hassett — the frontrunner to succeed Powell in May — saying he sees plenty of room to substantially lower rates”While he has indicated that he would respond to the data and that he would not bow to political pressure to decide whether to cut interest rates, if he becomes the next chair, it is clear that on the current backdrop he is comfortable with more easing” than many board members, wrote National Australia Bank’s Taylor Nugent.Aside from the Fed saga, investors are also keenly awaiting earnings from software giant Oracle and chipmaker Broadcom, which will be used to judge the outlook for the tech sector in the wake of huge investments in artificial intelligence.Markets have been pumped higher for the past two years by the surge into all things AI, though there has been some concern of late that the hundreds of billions splashed out might not see returns as early as hoped.”Oracle may not have a substantial weight in the S&P 500 or NAS100 to move the index on its own,” said Pepperstone’s Weston. “But what they detail on its capex intentions and future funding plans could resonate across the AI space.”- Key figures at around 0230 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.4 percent at 50,448.28 (break) Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.2 percent at 25,393.52Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.5 percent at 3,888.30Dollar/yen: DOWN at 156.65 yen from 156.90 yen on TuesdayEuro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1625 from $1.1630 Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3298 from $1.3300Euro/pound: DOWN at 87.41 pence from 87.43 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.3 percent at $58.43 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.3 percent at $62.12 per barrelNew York – Dow: DOWN 0.4 percent at 47,560.29 (close)London – FTSE 100: FLAT at 9,642.01 (close) 

Australia bans under-16s from social media in world-first crackdown

Australia banned under-16s from social media in a world-first crackdown on Wednesday, declaring it was time to “take back control” from formidable tech giants.A raft of popular apps and websites — Facebook, YouTube, Instagram and X among them — face US$33 million fines if they fail to purge Australia-based users younger than 16.Australia becomes one of the first nations to push back so forcefully against tech companies with immense political power, in a move other countries are looking at closely. “Enough is enough,” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.  “It is one of the biggest social and cultural changes that our nation has faced.”We will take back control.”The government says unprecedented measures are needed to protect children from “predatory algorithms” filling phone screens with bullying, sex and violence. The laws came into effect after midnight local time across Australia. Hundreds of thousands of adolescents woke up to find themselves locked out of apps they once scrolled through for hours each day.Bianca Navarro, 10, was already counting the years until she could log in again to YouTube. “It will be pretty sad because I have six years until I can watch it,” she told AFP. – Blacklisted -Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, Snapchat and Reddit are forbidden from creating or keeping accounts belonging to users in Australia under 16. Streaming platforms Kick and Twitch are also on the government’s blacklist, as are Threads and X. The ban has been hailed as a godsend for parents sick of seeing children stuck to their phones. Mia Bannister blamed social media for the suicide of her teenage son Ollie, who killed himself last year after he was bullied online. He was also being served endless dieting videos that fuelled an eating disorder, she said. “I’m sick of the social media giants shirking responsibility,” she told AFP in the lead-up to the ban. “The problem is we hand them a phone and we hand them the greatest weapon we could hand them.”A growing body of research suggests too much time online is taking a toll on teen wellbeing. But it is hard to draw firm conclusions that separate phone use from other lifestyle factors, experts say.Father-of-five Dany Elachi said the restrictions were a long-overdue “line in the sand”. “We need to err on the side of caution before putting anything addictive in the hands of children,” he told AFP.- ‘Really distracted’ -Tech-savvy teenagers the world over have taken an interest in Australia’s measures. “Students nowadays, they are really distracted,” said Nigerian high-schooler Mitchelle Okinedo, 15.”Social media today is very important for expressing yourself, no matter how old you are,” said Santiago Ramirez Rojas, 16, from Mexico City. YouTube, Meta and other social media giants have lined up to condemn the ban.Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, said children were already flocking to darker online spaces.”We’ve consistently raised concerns that this poorly developed law could push teens to less regulated platforms or apps,” the US-based firm told AFP in a statement. “We’re now seeing those concerns become reality.”Elon Musk’s X told young users the ban was “not our choice”.”It’s what the Australian law requires.” Lesser-known chat and image-sharing apps Lemon8 and yope, which are not currently listed in the social media ban, have shot up the download charts in Australia.While most platforms have begrudgingly agreed to comply, for now, legal challenges are in the wind. Online discussion site Reddit said Tuesday it could not confirm local media reports that said it would seek to overturn the ban in Australia’s High Court. An Australian internet rights group has launched its own bid to have teenagers re-instated to social media. – Rushed or reasonable? -Australia’s efforts will be closely watched by all those worried about the dangers of social media. New Zealand and Malaysia are mulling similar restrictions. The Australian government concedes the ban will be far from perfect at the outset and canny teenagers will find ways to slip through the cracks. But platforms face the threat of Aus$49.5 million (US$33 million) fines if they fail to take “reasonable steps” to stop this happening.  It remains to be seen how Australia’s internet safety regulator will interpret what counts as reasonable. Social media companies bear the sole responsibility for checking users are 16 or older.Some platforms say they will use AI tools to estimate ages based on photos, while young users may also choose to prove their age by uploading government ID. Which platforms fall under the ban continues to be debated. Popular apps and websites such as Roblox, Pinterest and WhatsApp are currently exempt — but the government has stressed that the list remains under review.Most social media platforms already require users be at least 13, a legacy of US laws setting the minimum age for data collection without parental consent. 

South Korea chip giant SK hynix mulls US stock market listing

South Korean chip giant SK hynix said on Wednesday it was considering a US stock market listing using treasury shares as part of efforts to boost shareholder value.SK hynix is one of the world’s leading memory chip makers — along with Samsung Electronics — manufacturing chips essential for artificial intelligence products and the data centres that the fast-evolving industry relies on.In a regulatory filing, SK hynix said it was “considering various measures to enhance shareholder value, including listing on the US stock market using treasury shares, but no decisions have been finalised yet”.The company said it was considering listing its treasury shares as American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), instruments representing a foreign stock that is traded on a US exchange.”We will make a further announcement once the specific details are finalised, or within one month,” it added.SK hynix shares were up 4.6 percent in early trading in Seoul.Industry sources have speculated that SK hynix could be seeking underwriters for a potential ADR programme using treasury shares — shares bought back by the company that issued them.ADRs, issued by US depositary banks, allow foreign shares to trade in the United States like domestic stocks.South Korea’s government has said it will triple spending on artificial intelligence next year as it hopes to propel the country into the ranks of the world’s top three AI powers alongside the United States and China.Analysts say SK hynix’s US listing could unlock pent-up valuation in the South Korean market by drawing in global investors.They are also seen as potentially narrowing the valuation gap between the South Korean chip giant and US peers like Micron.In October the firm reported record profit in the third quarter, boosted by strong demand for artificial intelligence.The strong performance followed signed partnerships with AI giants including OpenAI and Broadcom to supply advanced memory chips.South Korea’s presidential office is also set to hold a meeting on its national chip strategy Wednesday, attended by government officials as well as executives from Samsung and SK hynix.

Stock markets drift on eve of Fed rate call

Global stock markets traded mixed on Tuesday as markets avoided major swings while awaiting a Federal Reserve decision expected to shed light on US monetary policy next year.On Wall Street, the Dow began the day in positive territory but finished in the red while the Nasdaq opened negatively but ended the day higher.”It’s normal to see the market pause before a big day and consolidate the move,” said Adam Sarhan of 50 Park Investments. “The market’s in a wait-and-see approach.”Europe’s main markets were also mixed while Asia ended the day mostly lower.”The week so far has been indecisive at best, but early trading in the US has seen some tentative buying,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG trading platform.With traders fully confident of a US rate reduction Wednesday, observers said they would be keeping a close eye on the central bank’s so-called “dot plot” of projections for monetary policy into 2026 that will also be released.”Previews have been teasing the likelihood of the Fed checking in with a ‘hawkish cut,’ which is to say it will cut rates by 25 basis points but then signal that it is unlikely to cut rates again soon,” said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare.Bets on a third successive cut — and more in 2026 — had surged on data pointing to a weakening jobs market, which offset concerns about stubbornly high inflation.However, the excitement has calmed in recent days following a slightly higher-than-expected US inflation reading.On the corporate front Tuesday, chipmakers traded mixed after Trump said he had reached an agreement with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to allow Nvidia to export advanced artificial intelligence chips to China.Shares in Nvidia dipped 0.3 percent after having risen on Monday ahead of the announcement.The announcement marks a significant shift in US export policy for advanced AI chips, which Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden had heavily restricted over national security concerns.Biden’s administration required chip companies to create modified, less powerful versions specifically for the Chinese market.Investors also kept a close watch over the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery after Paramount on Monday launched an all-cash tender offer for the Hollywood giant, in a challenge to Netflix’s offer.On Tuesday, Warner Bros. Discovery continued to push higher, gaining 3.8 percent. Paramount Skydance advanced 0.5 percent while Netflix slipped 0.1 percent.JPMorgan Chase dropped 4.7 percent after executives from the banking giant signaled they anticipate 2026 expenses of $105 billion, more than expected.- Key figures at around 2115 GMT -New York – Dow: DOWN 0.4 percent at 47,560.29 (close)New York – S&P 500: DOWN 0.1 percent at 6,840.51 (close)New York – Nasdaq Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 23,576.49 (close)London – FTSE 100: FLAT at 9,642.01 (close) Paris – CAC 40: DOWN 0.7 percent at 8,052.51 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.5 percent at 24,162.65 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.1 percent at 50,655.10 (close) Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.3 percent at 25,434.23 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.4 percent at 3,909.52 (close)Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1630 from $1.1637 Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3300 from $1.3322 on MondayDollar/yen: UP at 156.90 yen from 155.92 yenEuro/pound: UP at 87.43 pence from 87.35 penceBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.9 percent at $61.94 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.1 percent at $58.25 per barrelburs-jmb/sla

Microsoft announces $17.5 bn investment in India, its ‘largest ever’ in Asia

Global technology giant Microsoft announced on Tuesday plans to invest $17.5 billion to help build India’s artificial intelligence infrastructure, with CEO Satya Nadella calling it “our largest investment ever in Asia”.Several global corporations have announced large investments this year in the South Asian nation, which is projected to have more than 900 million internet users by year’s end.”To support the country’s ambitions, Microsoft is committing US$17.5B (billion) — our largest investment ever in Asia — to help build the infrastructure, skills, and sovereign capabilities needed for India’s AI first future,” Nadella said in a post on X.Nadella made the announcement on social media after he met Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi, thanking the leader for “an inspiring conversation on India’s AI opportunity”.In a statement, Microsoft said the investment would be spread over four years.”Together, Microsoft and India are poised to set new benchmarks and drive the country’s leap from digital public infrastructure to AI public infrastructure in the coming decade,” the statement said.The tech giant said one of the key priorities of its investment plan was “building secure, sovereign-ready hyperscale infrastructure to enable AI adoption in India”.”At the heart of this effort is the significant progress being made at the India South Central cloud region, based in Hyderabad — that is set to go live in mid-2026,” Microsoft added.The planned cloud region is twice the size of the iconic Eden Gardens stadium in India’s eastern city Kolkata, which has a capacity of over 65,000 people. Microsoft said the latest announcement “builds on” a previous investment pledge Nadella had made earlier this year, committing $3 billion for AI and cloud infrastructure in India over the next two years.Modi said he was “happy” that the tech giant had chosen India as the destination for its largest investment in Asia.”The youth of India will harness this opportunity to innovate and leverage the power of AI for a better planet,” the prime minister said in a post on X. “When it comes to AI, the world is optimistic about India,” Modi added.- ‘Tremendous potential’ -Modi on Tuesday also met with the heads of tech firms Intel and Cognizant.Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan said the company was “committed to support India’s semiconductor mission”.”We had a wide-ranging discussion on a variety of topics related to technology, computing and the tremendous potential for India,” Tan said in a post on X.Cognizant said its CEO Ravi Kumar S met with the prime minister “for an inspiring conversation on accelerating AI adoption and advancing education and skill development to enhance AI capabilities and productivity”.Global technology giants are aggressively courting more users in India, the world’s most populous country and fifth-largest economy.A special area of focus has been artificial intelligence with US startup Anthropic in October unveiling plans to open an office in India. Its chief executive Dario Amodei has also met Modi.The same month, Google said it will invest $15 billion in India over the next five years, as it announced a giant data centre and artificial intelligence base in the country.OpenAI has said it will open an India office, with its chief Sam Altman noting that ChatGPT usage in the country had grown fourfold over the past year.AI firm Perplexity also announced a major partnership in July with Indian telecom giant Airtel, offering the company’s 360 million customers a free one-year Perplexity Pro subscription.But India’s bid to become a global technology and artificial intelligence hub is colliding with increasingly tightening digital regulations.According to recent media reports, authorities are drafting plans to ensure that manufacturers enable satellite location tracking in smartphones that cannot be turned off by users — a proposal that rights groups have raised the alarm over.

Stock markets downbeat on eve of Fed rate call

European and Asian stock markets were largely downbeat Tuesday on uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rates next year.With traders fully confident of a US rate reduction Wednesday, observers said they would be keeping a close eye on the central bank’s so-called “dot plot” of projections for monetary policy into 2026.They will pore over its post-meeting statement and Fed boss Jerome Powell’s news conference, looking for clues about the debate taking place among decision-makers.Wall Street closed lower Monday, while the dollar traded mixed Tuesday.”We expect solid growth, above-target inflation, and a slowing labour market to increase internal divisions at the (Fed policy board) and make 2026 a particularly challenging year for policymakers,” noted Xiao Cui, senior US economist at Pictet Wealth Management.”Downside risks to the labour market should lead the Committee to cut once more in December, before shifting to a quarterly pace of cuts in March and June.”She pointed also to “risks that Fed cuts are delayed into the second half of 2026”.Bets on a third successive cut — and more in 2026 — had surged on data pointing to a weakening jobs market, which has offset concerns about stubbornly high inflation.That optimism was boosted last month by reports that President Donald Trump’s top economic aide Kevin Hassett — a proponent of more cuts — was the frontrunner to take the Fed’s helm when Powell’s term ends.However, the excitement has calmed in recent days following slightly higher-than-expected US inflation.Bloomberg reported that markets are pricing two more rate reductions next year, down from the three expected last week.On the corporate front Tuesday, chipmakers traded mixed after Trump said he had reached an agreement with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to allow Nvidia to export advanced artificial intelligence chips to China.The announcement marks a significant shift in US export policy for advanced AI chips, which Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden had heavily restricted over national security concerns.Biden’s administration required chip companies to create modified, less powerful versions specifically for the Chinese market.Investors kept a close watch also over the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery after Paramount on Monday launched an all-cash tender offer for the Hollywood giant, in a challenge to Netflix’s offer.Paramount’s bid of $108.4 billion trumps Netflix’s offer of nearly $83 billion which targets, however, a smaller part of the company.Ahead of Wall Street reopening, Google meanwhile hit out at a European Union antitrust probe launched Tuesday into the tech giant’s use of online content to train and provide AI services. The aviation sector was in focus after a trade association for airlines said carriers expect to transport a record 5.2 billion passengers in 2026 despite global headwinds affecting the sector.Carriers are also now expecting higher profits than previously forecast for 2025, and predict earnings to come in at a comparable level next year, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) added.- Key figures at around 1045 GMT -London – FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 9,657.41 pointsParis – CAC 40: DOWN 0.3 percent at 8,083.12Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.4 percent at 24,148.76Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.1 percent at 50,655.10 (close) Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.3 percent at 25,434.23 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.4 percent at 3,909.52 (close)New York – Dow: DOWN 0.5 percent at 47,739.32 (close)Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1642 from $1.1640 on MondayPound/dollar: UP at $1.3332 from $1.3328 Dollar/yen: UP at 156.09 yen from 155.86 yenEuro/pound: UP at 87.35 pence from 87.34 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.3 percent at $62.68 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.3 percent at $59.05 per barrelburs-bcp/jh

Most markets track Wall St losses as jitters set in ahead of Fed

Most stocks fell in Asia on Tuesday as investors grew nervous about the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rates next year following an expected cut this week.With traders fully confident of a reduction Wednesday, observers said they would be keeping a close eye on the central bank’s so-called “dot plot” of projections for monetary policy.They will also be poring over its post-meeting statement and boss Jerome Powell’s news conference, looking for clues about the debate taking place among decision-makers.Bets on a third successive cut — and more in 2026 — have surged on the back of data pointing to a weakening jobs market, which has offset concerns about stubbornly high inflation.That optimism was boosted last month by reports that President Donald Trump’s top economic aide Kevin Hassett — a proponent of more cuts — was the frontrunner to take the Fed’s helm when Powell’s term ends.However, the excitement has calmed in recent days and Bloomberg reported that markets are pricing two more reductions next year, down from the three expected last week.”This decision is unlikely to be unanimous, with dissent expected from hawks and doves,” wrote Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index.”The market sees two rate cuts by the summer. Should the Fed’s dot plot differ from this, there could be volatility,” Cincotta added.Pictet Wealth Management senior US economist Xiao Cui said: “We expect solid growth, above-target inflation, and a slowing labour market to increase internal divisions at the (policy board) and make 2026 a particularly challenging year for policymakers.”Downside risks to the labour market should lead the Committee to cut once more in December, before shifting to a quarterly pace of cuts in March and June.”However, she said her team “see risks that Fed cuts are delayed into the second half of 2026”.After a pullback in all three main indexes on Wall Street, Asian and European markets also struggled.Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington, Taipei, Mumbai and Manila were all down, though there were gains in Tokyo, Singapore, Bangkok and Jakarta.London retreated at the open, while Paris and Frankfurt edged up.Chipmakers were mixed in Asia after Trump said he had reached an agreement with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to allow US chip giant Nvidia to export advanced artificial intelligence chips to China.The announcement marks a significant shift in US export policy for advanced AI chips, which Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden had heavily restricted over national security concerns.Biden’s administration required chip companies to create modified, less powerful versions specifically for the Chinese market.- Key figures at around 0815 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.1 percent at 50,655.10 (close) Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.3 percent at 25,434.23 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.4 percent at 3,909.52 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 9,637.55 Dollar/yen: UP at 156.16 yen from 155.86 yen on MondayEuro/dollar: UP at $1.1642 from $1.1640Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3329 from $1.3328 Euro/pound: DOWN at 87.32 pence from 87.34 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.2 percent at $58.79 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.1 percent at $62.43 per barrelNew York – Dow: DOWN 0.5 percent at 47,739.32 (close)

Trump says US will allow sale of Nvidia AI chips to China

President Donald Trump said Monday he had reached an agreement with President Xi Jinping to allow US chip giant Nvidia to export advanced artificial intelligence chips to China.The announcement marked a significant shift in US export policy for advanced AI chips, which Joe Biden’s administration had heavily restricted over national security concerns about Chinese military applications.Democrats in Congress quickly dismissed the shift as a huge mistake that will help the Chinese military and economy.In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said he had informed Xi that Washington would permit Nvidia to ship its H200 products to “approved customers in China, and other countries, under conditions that allow for continued strong National Security.””President Xi responded positively! $25% will be paid to the United States of America,” Trump wrote, without providing details on how the payment mechanism would work.Trump criticized his predecessor’s approach, saying it “forced our Great Companies to spend BILLIONS OF DOLLARS building ‘degraded’ products that nobody wanted, a terrible idea that slowed Innovation, and hurt the American Worker.”This referred to the Biden administration’s requirement for chip companies to create modified, less powerful versions specifically for the Chinese market.These chips had reduced capabilities — lower processing speeds, for example — to comply with export control regulations.Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun did not directly confirm the agreement when asked, but said that “China has always advocated for mutual benefit and win-win outcomes through cooperation between China and the United States.”- Not Blackwell -Under Biden-era restrictions, the H200 and similar advanced chips were blocked from export to China.”We applaud President Trump’s decision to allow America’s chip industry to compete to support high paying jobs and manufacturing in America,” an Nvidia spokesperson told AFP.”Offering H200 to approved commercial customers, vetted by the Department of Commerce, strikes a thoughtful balance that is great for America.”Trump emphasized that Nvidia’s most advanced chips — the Blackwell series and forthcoming Rubin processors — are not included in the agreement and remain available only to US customers.The H200s are roughly 18 months behind the company’s state-of-the-art offerings.The chips — graphic processing units or GPUs — are used to train the AI models that are the bedrock of the generative AI revolution launched with the release of ChatGPT in 2022.The Commerce Department is finalizing implementation details, with Trump saying “the same approach will apply to AMD, Intel, and other GREAT American Companies.”- AI race -The announcement comes as Washington and Beijing compete for dominance in artificial intelligence technology.Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang lobbied the White House intensely to reverse the Biden-era policy despite considerable opposition in Washington to giving Chinese companies access to powerful chips.Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat, attributed the deal to a “backroom meeting” with Trump and Huang’s company’s donation to build the East Wing ballroom at the White House.She and other senior Democrats in the Senate issued a separate statement calling Trump’s decision “a colossal economic and national security failure.””Access to these chips would give China’s military transformational technology to make its weapons more lethal, carry out more effective cyberattacks against American businesses and critical infrastructure and strengthen their economic and manufacturing sector,” the lawmakers said.Trump’s post came the same day the US Justice Department announced the arrests of two Chinese businessmen in connection to an alleged scheme to smuggle Nvidia H100 and H200 chips from the US to China. It is unclear whether the agreement will impact the case.Alex Stapp, of the Washington-based Institute for Progress, called the policy a “massive own goal,” with the H200 “6x more powerful than the H20, which was previously the most powerful chip approved for export.”Zhang Yi, founder of Chinese tech research firm iiMedia, said that having Nvidia AI GPUs on the market was unlikely to reverse Beijing’s push to develop its own advanced chips.”Instead, it will actually force its acceleration,” with a 25-percent US charge increasing costs for Chinese companies, which already hold concerns over supply chain security, he told AFP.

German exports tread water as US, China shipments fall

German exports almost stagnated in October, official data showed Tuesday, as heavy declines in shipments to the United States and China eclipsed growing trade with the rest of Europe.Overall exports from Europe’s top economy rose 0.1 percent to 131.3 billion euros ($153 billion) from a month earlier, according to preliminary data from federal statistics agency Destatis.Shipments to the United States — Germany’s top export market — plummeted almost eight percent as the effect of tariffs continues to exact a heavy toll. Exports to China fell nearly six percent, with demand weak as the Chinese economy battles a long slowdown and local companies increasingly compete with German firms in the key market. Total exports were slightly better than expected however — analysts had forecast a decline — as they were boosted by a near three-percent jump in sales to other European Union countries.ING economist Carsten Brzeski warned however that exports “are still facing rough headwinds” due to shifting trading relationships with the United States and China.”So far, the European market looks unable to offset these global headwinds,” he said.”It currently requires a lot of imagination to see a quick return of the export sector as a powerful growth engine for the German economy.”The German economy has been hit hard by an industrial slump and weak demand in key markets in recent years, and shrank in both 2024 and 2023. Most imports to Germany came from China in October, although they were down around five percent compared to to September. China recently overtook the United States to reclaim its position as Germany’s top trading partner, as the country redirects more of its exports to Europe due to US tariffs. Imports to Germany in October dropped 1.2 percent month-on-month to 114.5 billion euros. The trade surplus widened to 16.9 billion euros.