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Crude, gas prices soar and stocks drop after US strikes on Iran

Oil and gas prices soared while stocks fell in Asia on Monday after US-Israeli strikes on Iran sent investors fleeing the prospect of an extended conflict in the crude-rich Middle East.Brent briefly spiked almost 14 percent and West Texas Intermediate nearly 12 percent at the start of business after the attack on the Islamic republic, which killed supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials.The bombings have also seen the vital Strait of Hormuz — through which around 20 percent of global seaborne oil passes — effectively shut and several ships attacked, fanning supply fears.Equity markets across Asia sank, with Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, Mumbai, Bangkok, Wellington and Taipei all deep in the red. US futures were down more than one percent. Still, Shanghai edged up and Sydney was flat. London sank one percent at the open, while Frankfurt and Paris both shed more than two percent.Airline stocks took a battering as they were forced to cancel flights to the region. Cathay Pacific sank four percent in Hong Kong, Sydney-listed Qantas dived 5.4 percent and Singapore Airlines was off 4.8 percent. Japan’s ANA and JAL fell more than five percent.However, energy firms rallied, with Australia’s Woodside Energy and Santos each jumping more than six percent, while PetroChina added almost four percent in Hong Kong. Inpex in Japan was up more than six percent.Gold — a key go-to in times of turmoil — climbed two percent, while the dollar also saw a boost from a rush into safe havens.Crude pared some of its gains to sit more than nine percent higher. while European gas prices rocketed more than 20 percent.Brent had already rallied last week on growing concerns Trump would order an attack as talks aimed at curtailing Iran’s nuclear programme stuttered.”If higher oil prices persist, it raises the risk of stickier headline inflation and can slow the pace at which inflation prints improve,” wrote Saxo Markets’ Charu Chanana.”That does not automatically mean policy tightening, but it can make the Fed more cautious about cutting quickly, because energy-driven inflation can spill into expectations and broader pricing behaviour over time.”US President Donald Trump urged Iranians to rise up against their government and said the war could last “four weeks”.The powerful head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said Monday the country “will not negotiate with the United States” and denied media reports that officials had sought to initiate talks with the Trump administration.- Trump’s ‘Achilles heel’ -Iran continued a retaliatory missile and drone campaign in the Gulf, adding to fears the conflict could spread as Tel Aviv launched attacks on Lebanon after Tehran-backed militant group Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel in retaliation for the killing of Khamenei.While Iran has not officially closed the Strait of Hormuz, its Revolutionary Guards have warned against transiting the waterway.On Sunday, at least two ships were struck, one off Oman’s coast and another off the UAE, British maritime security agency UKMTO said.Iranian state television said an oil tanker was hit and was sinking after trying to “illegally” pass through the strait.In such a situation, insurance costs become prohibitive, said Amena Bakr, head of Middle East and OPEC+ research at analysts Kpler, predicting that crude could hit $90.The main shipping companies have already confirmed they are suspending the passage of their fleets through the strait.In theory, oil-importing countries have reserves, with OECD members required to maintain 90 days’ worth of stocks, but prices above $100 cannot be ruled out.If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, “no matter how much spare capacity (in the strategic reserves) is not going to fill that gap. That gap is just too big”, said Bakr.Another analyst at Kpler, Michelle Brouhard, described high oil prices as “the Achilles heel of Trump”.She said Iran was likely to look to keep crude prices high to force Trump to back down, as he promised his electorate low prices, as the United States approaches mid-term elections in November.Gas prices also soared Monday — dealing another blow to the world economy — as Qatar is a key exporter of liquefied natural gas, heightening inflationary risks.Rising energy prices, increased shipping costs and loss of revenue for air transport could have “a harmful effect on growth”, said economist Eric Dor, from the IESEG School of Management in Paris.”If it’s a matter of three days, it’s not serious. But if it’s over a longer period, then it will have an additional recessionary effect,” he told AFP.- Key figures at around 0815 GMT -West Texas Intermediate: UP 9.0 percent at $73.04 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 9.7 percent at $79.95 per barrelTokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.4 percent at 58,057.24 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 2.1 percent at 26,059.85 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 4,182.59 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 1.0 percent at 10,801.66 Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1712 from $1.1823 on FridayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3370 from $1.3486Dollar/yen: UP at 157.00 yen from 156.03 yenEuro/pound: UP at 87.69 pence from 87.67 penceNew York – Dow: DOWN 1.1 percent at 48,977.92 (close)

Canada’s Carney to mend rift, boost trade as he meets India’s Modi

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will seek to reset strained ties and push efforts to diversify trade beyond the United States when he meets his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi on Monday.The talks in New Delhi are expected to cover trade and investment, clean energy, defence, critical minerals and artificial intelligence, officials from both sides have said.A major focus will be reviving negotiations for a long-discussed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.Speaking to business leaders in Mumbai on Saturday, Carney said the planned deal, which he was looking to seal by the end of the year, could double bilateral trade by 2030.”This visit marks the end of a challenging period, and more importantly, the beginning of a new, more ambitious partnership between two confident and complementary nations,” he said.Carney’s visit is a key step forward in ties that effectively collapsed in 2023 after Ottawa accused New Delhi of orchestrating a deadly campaign against Sikh activists in Canada.India’s foreign ministry said Carney’s visit marked a “significant step” in strengthening relations.India is seeking to attract more overseas investments and says Canadian pension and wealth funds have already invested $73 billion.Energy-hungry India — the world’s most populous country, with 1.4 billion people — hopes Canada can support its ambitious plan to expand nuclear power capacity.- ‘Strategic partner’ -“We can be India’s strategic partner in critical minerals for India’s manufacturing, clean tech, and nuclear industries,” Carney said.”And India can help us double our grid with clean power by 2040.”Before Carney took office last year, Ottawa accused Modi’s government of direct involvement in the 2023 killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a naturalised Canadian citizen who was part of a fringe group that advocated for an independent Sikh state called Khalistan.Khalistan militants have been blamed for the assassination of an Indian prime minister and the bombing of a passenger jet.Former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s government further alleged India had directed a broader campaign of intimidation against Sikh activists across Canada.India has repeatedly dismissed the allegations, which sent relations into freefall, with both nations expelling a string of top diplomats in 2024.Strategic analyst and author Brahma Chellaney said Carney’s trip was “intended to close one of the most acrimonious diplomatic chapters between two major democracies in recent memory”.”For two pluralistic democracies navigating an uncertain century, this may prove to be the most sustainable foundation of all,” he said on X.Ties between New Delhi and Ottawa improved after Carney took office in March 2025, and envoys have since been restored.- ‘Enormous opportunities’ -“Building true strategic autonomy requires diversification, not isolation,” Carney said.”It creates enormous opportunities for India and Canada to work together, to limit risks, to increase prosperity, and to build sovereignty.”Carney has made reducing Canada’s heavy reliance on the US economy a centrepiece of his foreign economic policy.In 2024, before US President Donald Trump returned to office and upended global trade with a flurry of tariffs, more than 75 percent of Canadian exports went to the United States. Two-way trade that year exceeded $900 billion.So far Trump has broadly adhered to the North American free-trade agreement he signed during his first term, and about 85 percent of US-Canada trade remains tariff-free.But at the same time, Trump has also imposed painful industry-specific tariffs, and there are fears that if he scraps the broader trade deal, the Canadian economy will be hit hard.Carney is trying to boost commerce with Europe and Asia as a strategy to backstop Canada’s economy, should free trade with Washington collapse.After India, Carney will travel to Australia and Japan — part of a wider push to broaden Canada’s economic partnerships.burs-abh/mjw

Crude soars, stocks drop after US strikes on Iran

Oil prices soared and stocks fell in Asia on Monday after US-Israeli strikes on Iran sent investors fleeing the prospect of an extended conflict in the crude-rich Middle East.Brent briefly spiked almost 14 percent and West Texas Intermediate nearly 12 percent at the start of business after the attack on the Islamic Republic, which killed supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials.The bombings have also seen the vital Strait of Hormuz — through which around 20 percent of global seaborne oil passes — effectively shut and several ships attacked, fanning supply fears.Equity markets across Asia sank, with Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, Wellington and Taipei all deep in the red. US futures were down more than one percent. However, energy firms rallied, with Australia’s Woodside Energy jumping more than five percent and Santos climbing nine percent, while PetroChina added almost four percent in Hong Kong. Inpex in Japan was up more than 10 percent.Gold — a key go-to safe haven in times of turmoil — climbed two percent.While the strikes have ramped up geopolitical worries, traders wound down their initial bets, with crude sitting around five percent higher and stock markets paring losses.Brent, the international benchmark for crude, had already rallied last week on growing concerns Trump would order an attack as talks aimed at curtailing Iran’s nuclear programme stuttered.”If higher oil prices persist, it raises the risk of stickier headline inflation and can slow the pace at which inflation prints improve,” wrote Saxo Markets’ Charu Chanana.”That does not automatically mean policy tightening, but it can make the Fed more cautious about cutting quickly, because energy-driven inflation can spill into expectations and broader pricing behaviour over time.”The US president has called on Iranians to rise up against their government and said the war could last “four weeks”.Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone campaign in the Gulf killed four people and wounded dozens more, the UAE foreign ministry said.While Iran has not officially closed the Strait of Hormuz, its Revolutionary Guards have warned against transiting the waterway.- Trump’s ‘Achilles heel’ -On Sunday, at least two ships were struck, one off Oman’s coast and another off the UAE’s, British maritime security agency UKMTO said.Iranian state television said an oil tanker was struck and was sinking after trying to “illegally” pass through the strait. In such a situation, insurance costs become prohibitive, said Amena Bakr, head of Middle East and OPEC+ research at analysts Kpler, predicting that the price could hit $90.The main shipping companies have already confirmed that they are suspending the passage of their fleets along the route.”While some alternate infrastructure could be used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the net impact from its closure would be a loss of eight to 10 million bpd (barrels per day) of crude oil supply,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst with Rystad Energy, in a note on Saturday.In theory, oil-importing countries have reserves, with OECD members required to maintain 90 days’ worth of stocks, but prices above $100 cannot be ruled out.If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, “no matter how much spare capacity (in the strategic reserves) is not going to fill that gap. That gap is just too big”, said Bakr.Another analyst at Kpler, Michelle Brouhard, described high oil prices as “the Achilles heel of Trump”.In her view, Iran is likely to look to keep crude prices high to force Trump to back down, as he promised his electorate low prices, at a time when the United States is already gearing up for mid-term elections at the end of this year.Gas prices also soared Monday — dealing another blow to the world economy — as Qatar is a key exporter of liquefied natural gas, heightening inflationary risks.The last time crude prices climbed above $100 was at the start of the war in Ukraine. Gas also soared, which played a major role in a prolonged period of rising prices.Rising energy prices, increased shipping costs and loss of revenue for air transport could have “a harmful effect on growth”, said economist Eric Dor, from the IESEG School of Management in Paris.”If it’s a matter of three days, it’s not serious. But if it’s over a longer period, then it will have an additional recessionary effect,” he told AFP.- Key figures at around 0200 GMT -West Texas Intermediate: UP 4.2 percent at $69.84 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 4.7 percent at $76.32 per barrelTokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.4 percent at 58,001.38 Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.9 percent at 26,130.70Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.3 percent at 4,173.75Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1790 from $1.1823 on FridayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3447 from $1.3486Dollar/yen: UP at 156.26 yen from 156.03 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 87.65 pence from 87.67 penceNew York – Dow: DOWN 1.1 percent at 48,977.92 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.6 percent at 10,910.55 (close)

Oil prices jump on Iran attack fears, Wall Street slips on AI

Crude oil prices jumped Friday as worries about a possible US attack on Iran rose while Wall Street stocks slid as tech stocks suffered.Crude prices jumped more than three percent at one point as optimism faded following Thursday talks between the two nations that were seen as a last-ditch bid to avert war.”With the US having called on its citizens to leave Israel and Iran, the threat of an attack on the Islamic Republic has dramatically risen, pushing the oil price to a seven-month high,” said analyst Axel Rudolph at investing and trading platform IG. The benchmark international contract, Brent, briefly rose over $73 per barrel.Wall Street’s main stock indices fell, with tech stocks taking a hit.Financial services firm Block’s announcement that it would slash its workforce by nearly half and rely heavily on AI to operate more efficiently sparked fresh concerns about the disruptive nature of the technology.”Block won’t be the last company making this type of announcement, which is what has the market spooked this morning about growth prospects,” said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare. Stock markets soared to fresh heights last year thanks to investors piling into stocks of tech firms which are piling massive amounts of money into developing and deploying AI.But the march higher has not been steady in recent months as concern about artificial intelligence disrupting industries occasionally triggers sudden drops in markets.Investors have also been occasionally seized by concerns that the share prices of tech giants have risen too high and that AI may not be profitable.Expectations of stellar performance have also worked against tech giants.Nvidia’s share price slumped 5.5 percent Thursday despite the chip giant announcing that its quarterly profits more than doubled to $43 billion.It fell another two percent on Friday after OpenAI announced a $110 billion funding round that includes the company.Thursday’s drop was partly due to investors already having priced in an increase ahead of the announcement, but “there are also concerns related to stretched valuations and Nvidia’s dependence on capital spending by large technology companies investing in AI infrastructure”, said City Index analyst Julian Pineda.Trade Nation analyst David Morrison also pointed to investors shifting money from tech to other sectors. He pointed out that the S&P 500 is heading towards a 0.4 percent loss for the month of February, while the Dow is set for a 1.2 percent gain. “This divergence provides further evidence of a clear rotation away from high-growth AI-linked names into more traditional cyclical sectors, even as broader macro risks tied to trade policy and geopolitical tensions linger in the background,” he said.Meanwhile, shares in Netflix surged nearly 10 percent after the streaming giant announced its withdrawal from the bidding war for Warner Bros after Paramount Skydance raised its bid.In Europe, the jump in oil and metals prices helped London’s FTSE 100 stock index buck the trend, rising to a fresh record high as energy and resources stocks rose.Frankfurt ended the day flat and Paris fell.- Key figures at around 1630 GMT -New York – Dow: DOWN 1.0 percent at 49,012.86 pointsNew York – S&P 500: DOWN 0.5 percent at 6,872.12New York – Nasdaq Composite: DOWN 0.8 percent at 22,695.29London – FTSE 100: UP 0.7 percent at 10,922.85 (close)Paris – CAC 40: DOWN 0.5 percent at 8,580.75 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: FLAT at 25,284.26 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.2 percent at 58,850.27 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.0 percent at 26,630.54 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.4 percent at 4,162.88 (close)Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1821 from $1.1799 on ThursdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3463 from $1.3489Dollar/yen: DOWN at 156.04 yen from 156.11 yenEuro/pound: UP at 87.81 pence from 87.47 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 2.3 percent at $72.44 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 2.2 percent at $66.65 per barrelburs-rl/sbk

Stocks slide, oil jumps tracking AI and Iran

US and European markets mostly fell on Friday with tech stocks suffering, while oil prices jumped as a standoff between Iran and the United States deepened.Wall Street’s main indices fell at the start of trading, with tech stocks taking a hit.An announcement by financial services firm Block that it would slash its workforce by nearly half and rely heavily on AI to operate more efficiently sparked fresh concerns about the disruptive nature of the technology.”Block won’t be the last company making this type of announcement, which is what has the market spooked this morning about growth prospects,” said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare. Stock markets soared to fresh heights last year thanks to investors piling into stocks of tech firms which are piling massive amounts of money into developing and deploying AI.But the march higher hasn’t been steady in recent months as concerns about AI disrupting industries occasionally triggers sudden drops in markets.Investors have also been occasionally seized by concerns that the share prices of tech giants have risen too high and that AI may not be profitable.Expectations of stellar performance have also worked against tech giants.Nvidia’s share price slumped 5.5 percent Thursday despite the chip giant announcing that its quarterly profits more than doubled to $43 billion.It fell more than two percent as trading got under on Friday.That was partly due to investors already having priced in an increase ahead of the announcement, but “there are also concerns related to stretched valuations and Nvidia’s dependence on capital spending by large technology companies investing in AI infrastructure,” said City Index analyst Julian Pineda.Trade Nation analyst David Morrison also pointed to investors shifting money from tech to other sectors. He pointed out that the S&P 500 is heading towards a 0.4 percent loss for the month of February, while the Dow is set for a 1.2 percent gain. “This divergence provides further evidence of a clear rotation away from high-growth AI-linked names into more traditional cyclical sectors, even as broader macro risks tied to trade policy and geopolitical tensions linger in the background,” he said.Elsewhere on Friday, oil prices jumped more than three percent as Iran said that in order to reach a deal, the United States will have to drop its “excessive demands”, tempering the optimism expressed after talks seen as a last-ditch bid to avert war.The Oman-mediated talks follow repeated threats from President Donald Trump to strike Iran, and with the United States conducting its biggest military build-up in the region in decades.Trump on February 19 gave Iran 15 days to reach a deal, and while Iran has insisted the discussions focus solely on its nuclear programme, the US wants Tehran’s missile programme, its ballistic missile capabilities, and its support for militant groups curtailed.The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that Trump’s negotiating team would demand that Iran dismantle its three main nuclear sites and hand over all its remaining enriched uranium to the United States.”For oil prices, we have seen significant fluctuations as traders weigh up the likeliness of a conflict,” said Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets.- Key figures at around 1430 GMT -New York – Dow: DOWN 1.0 percent at 49,019.09 pointsNew York – S&P 500: DOWN 0.9 percent at 6,848.07New York – Nasdaq Composite: DOWN 1.2 percent at 22,597.59London – FTSE 100: UP 0.5 percent at 10,904.61 Paris – CAC 40: DOWN 0.4 percent at 8,586.68Frankfurt – DAX: DOWN 0.1 percent at 25,257.49Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.2 percent at 58,850.27 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.0 percent at 26,630.54 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.4 percent at 4,162.88 (close)Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1801 from $1.1799 on ThursdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3464 from $1.3489Dollar/yen: DOWN at 156.07 yen from 156.11 yenEuro/pound: UP at 87.66 pence from 87.47 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 3.5 percent at $73.20 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 3.6 percent at $67.55 per barrelburs-rl/rmb

Stocks mostly rise, oil jumps tracking AI and Iran

Stock markets mostly rose Friday with traders relieved by the tech sector holding firm despite concerns over massive AI investments.Indices across Asia and Europe were mainly in the green despite Wall Street’s Nasdaq losing more than one percent Thursday.”European markets continue to show their resilience, with indices throughout the region continuing to gain ground in the face of US tech-led losses,” noted Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets.Nvidia’s share price slumped 5.5 percent Thursday despite the chip giant announcing that its quarterly profits more than doubled to $43 billion.”Market expectations were already very elevated and part of the positive results had been priced in,” said City Index analyst Julian Pineda.”There are also concerns related to stretched valuations and Nvidia’s dependence on capital spending by large technology companies investing in AI infrastructure. “If the pace of AI investment moderates due to cost optimisation efforts, it could indirectly affect Nvidia’s growth outlook,” Pineda added.Elsewhere on Friday, oil prices jumped almost two percent as Iran said that in order to reach a deal, the United States will have to drop its “excessive demands”, tempering the optimism expressed after talks seen as a last-ditch bid to avert war.The Oman-mediated talks follow repeated threats from President Donald Trump to strike Iran, and with the United States conducting its biggest military build-up in the region in decades.Trump on February 19 gave Iran 15 days to reach a deal, and while Iran has insisted the discussions focus solely on its nuclear programme, the US wants Tehran’s missile programme and its support for militant groups curtailed.The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that Trump’s negotiating team would demand that Iran dismantle its three main nuclear sites and hand over all its remaining enriched uranium to the United States.”For oil prices, we have seen significant fluctuations as traders weigh up the likeliness of a conflict,” said Mahony.- Key figures at around 1100 GMT -London – FTSE 100: UP 0.4 percent at 10,886.02 pointsParis – CAC 40: DOWN 0.2 percent at 8,602.58Frankfurt – DAX: FLAT at 25,292.49Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.2 percent at 58,850.27 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.0 percent at 26,630.54 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.4 percent at 4,162.88 (close)New York – Dow: FLAT at 49,499.20 (close)Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1801 from $1.1799 on ThursdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3474 from $1.3489Dollar/yen: DOWN at 156.00 yen from 156.11 yenEuro/pound: UP at 87.58 pence from 87.47 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 1.8 percent at $72.11 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 1.9 percent at $66.46 per barrel