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President Donald Trump is due to unleash fresh tariffs Saturday on major US trading partners Canada, Mexico and China — with Ottawa informed that levies will begin within days.The US government has told Ottawa to expect 25 percent across-the-board tariffs on its exports starting Tuesday, with the exception of energy products like oil, a Canadian government source told AFP.Those would face a 10 percent rate, added the official, who was not authorized to speak publicly.Trump has threatened a similar 25 percent levy on Mexican imports, pointing to what he said was both North American neighbors’ failure to halt illegal immigration and the flow of fentanyl across US borders.On China, Trump vowed a 10 percent tariff, charging that it had a role in the synthetic opioid’s production.These threaten upheaval across supply chains from energy to automobiles and food, analysts said.Trump has repeatedly expressed his love for tariffs, and has signaled that Saturday’s action could be the first volley in further trade conflicts to come.This week, the US president pledged to impose duties on the European Union.He has also promised tariffs on semiconductors, steel, aluminum, as well as oil and gas — without specifying which countries would be targeted.Trump returned to his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida for the weekend with no public events on his official schedule Saturday. He headed to the golf course Saturday morning.Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to hold a press conference around 6:00 pm (2300 GMT), two Canadian government sources told AFP.- Growth concerns -Imposing sweeping tariffs on three key US trading partners carries risks for Trump, who swept to victory in November’s election partly due to public dissatisfaction over the economy.Higher import costs would likely “dampen consumer spending and business investment,” said EY chief economist Gregory Daco.He expects inflation would rise by 0.7 percentage points in the first quarter this year with the tariffs, before gradually easing.”Rising trade policy uncertainty will heighten financial market volatility and strain the private sector, despite the administration’s pro-business rhetoric,” he said.Trump’s supporters have downplayed fears that tariffs would fuel inflation, with some suggesting his planned tax cuts and deregulation measures could boost growth instead.Democratic lawmakers criticized Trump’s plans, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer saying Friday: “I am concerned these new tariffs will further drive up costs for American consumers.”Canada and Mexico are major suppliers of US agricultural products, with imports totaling tens of billions of dollars from each country per year.Tariffs would also hit the auto industry hard, with about 70 percent of light vehicles built in Canada and Mexico destined for the United States, according to S&P Global Mobility.The research group added that automakers and suppliers also produce components throughout the region, meaning tariffs will likely increase costs for US-made vehicles.- Ready to respond -Trudeau said Friday that Ottawa is ready with “a purposeful, forceful” response.Doug Ford, premier of Canada’s economic engine Ontario, warned Saturday that “the impact of these tariffs will be felt almost immediately,” predicting potential job losses and a slowdown in business.Canada should “hit back hard and hit back strong,” he said at a local election campaign stop.Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum previously said her government would await any announcement “with a cool head” and had plans for whatever Washington decides.Sheinbaum has met Mexican business representatives, with her economy minister Marcelo Ebrard saying on social media Saturday that the private sector was closing ranks around her in the face of potential commercial “arbitrariness.”White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, however, on Friday dismissed concerns of a trade war.Hiking import taxes on crude oil from countries like Canada and Mexico could bring “huge implications for US energy prices, especially in the US Midwest,” noted David Goldwyn and Joseph Webster of the Atlantic Council.Trump said Friday he was mulling a lower tariff rate on oil.Nearly 60 percent of US crude oil imports are from Canada, according to a Congressional Research Service report.

President Donald Trump is due to unleash fresh tariffs Saturday on major US trading partners Canada, Mexico and China, threatening upheaval across supply chains from energy to autos.Trump promises 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, pointing to their failure to halt illegal immigration and the flow of fentanyl across US borders.He also vows a 10 percent tariff on imports from China, the world’s second biggest economy, charging that it had a role in the synthetic opioid’s production.Trump has repeatedly expressed his love for tariffs, and has signaled that Saturday’s action could be the first volley in further trade conflicts to come.This week, the US president pledged to impose duties on the European Union.He has also promised tariffs on semiconductors, steel, aluminum, copper, pharmaceuticals as well as oil and gas.Trump returned to his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida for the weekend with no public events on his official schedule. He headed to the golf course Saturday morning.- Growth concerns -Imposing sweeping tariffs on three key US trading partners carries risks for Trump, who swept to victory in November’s election partly on the back of public dissatisfaction over costs of living.Higher import costs would likely “dampen consumer spending and business investment,” said EY chief economist Gregory Daco.He expects inflation would rise by 0.7 percentage points in the first quarter this year with the tariffs, before gradually easing.”Rising trade policy uncertainty will heighten financial market volatility and strain the private sector, despite the administration’s pro-business rhetoric,” he said.Trump’s supporters have downplayed fears that tariff hikes would fuel inflation, with some suggesting his planned tax cuts and deregulation measures could boost growth instead.Democratic lawmakers criticized Trump’s plans, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer saying Friday: “I am concerned these new tariffs will further drive up costs for American consumers.”Canada and Mexico are major suppliers of US agricultural products, with imports totaling tens of billions of dollars from each country per year.Tariffs would also hit the auto industry hard, with US light vehicle imports from Canada and Mexico in 2024 accounting for 22 percent of all vehicles sold in the country, according to S&P Global Mobility.The research group added that automakers and suppliers also produce components throughout the region, meaning tariffs will likely increase costs for vehicles.”We should be focused on going hard against competitors who rig the game, like China, rather than attacking our allies,” Schumer said in a statement.- Ready to respond -Canada and Mexico have said they are prepared if Trump goes through with his plan.Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday that Ottawa is ready with “a purposeful, forceful” response.Doug Ford, premier of Canada’s economic engine Ontario, warned Saturday that “the impact of these tariffs will be felt almost immediately,” predicting job losses and a slowdown in business.Canada should “hit back hard and hit back strong,” he said at a local election campaign stop.Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum previously said her government would await any announcement “with a cool head” and had plans for whatever Washington decides.White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, however, on Friday dismissed concerns of a trade war.Hiking import taxes on crude oil from countries like Canada and Mexico could bring “huge implications for US energy prices, especially in the US Midwest,” noted David Goldwyn and Joseph Webster of the Atlantic Council.Trump said Friday he was mulling a lower tariff rate on oil.He told reporters: “I’m probably going to reduce the tariff a little bit on that.””We think we’re going to bring it down to 10 percent,” he added.Nearly 60 percent of US crude oil imports are from Canada, according to a Congressional Research Service report.Canadian heavy oil is refined in the United States and regions dependent on it may lack a ready substitute.Canadian producers would bear some impact of tariffs, but US refiners would also be hit with higher costs, said Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service.

A humanoid robot gyrates to pulsing music at a shopping mall in Beijing, part of an exhibition harnessing artificial intelligence to enhance the flavour of China’s biggest annual festival.The country is celebrating the eight-day Lunar New Year holiday that typically sees people return home to eat, drink and make merry with family and friends.From dragon dances to incense offerings, the festival is also a time to nurture centuries-old traditions — though in this corner of the capital, they come with a high-tech twist.Billed as an “AI temple fair”, the event in Beijing’s well-heeled Haidian district is a chance for local technology firms to display their products to the public.”(Robots) can already do a lot of things, like take things off the shelves and make coffee,” said Sophia Wu as she strolled among silicon shop assistants and binary baristas.”I’d love to have a robot, and then it could do all my chores for me, and that would free up a lot of my time,” the 48-year-old housewife and retired engineer told AFP.A troupe of robots manufactured by Hangzhou-based tech firm Unitree made global headlines this week after they performed a synchronised dance on China’s Spring Festival TV gala.The singular dancer in the mall, however, put on a more modest show, staying rooted on the ground while jerkily swaying its hips and arms.Described as a “high-quality human imitation robot” called Xiao Xin, it was capable of communicating with people and making tiny adjustments to the expressions on its lifelike prosthetic face, a display placard said.Nearby, a visitor tentatively asked a life-size humanoid dressed as China’s traditional wealth god what it had eaten for breakfast.”This morning, I enjoyed a hearty breakfast that included fresh fruit, delicious fried eggs, and sweet bread,” the robot replied in a resounding baritone, shaking its wispy beard and glittering crimson robe.”I hope that in the new year, you can also eat healthily and deliciously, and be happy every day.”- ‘Charm of robots’ -Elsewhere, a motley band of automated musicians cranked out holiday songs on analogue instruments, and finely tuned robotic arms wielded ink brushes to write calligraphy on thick red paper.Waiting for his scroll to dry, Bai Song, 34, said the exhibition had left him with a “deep impression of the charm of robots”.”Every era inevitably produces different things. It’s possible that AI will replace some of us, but there will also be new jobs, or new types of work,” the IT professional told AFP.”Also, we’re a socialist country, so there’s no way that people’s lives are suddenly going to get worse, because the state will provide our safety net.”China leads the world in some advanced technologies and aims to achieve global supremacy in AI by the end of the decade.An AI chatbot developed by Chinese start-up DeepSeek sent shockwaves through the industry this week with its R1 programme that can match American competitors seemingly at a fraction of the cost.Still, not everything at the AI temple fair seemed quite so disruptive just yet.A robotic koi carp repeatedly swam into the wall of its water-filled enclosure, and two semi-automated football teams plodded around an indoor pitch, colliding with each other and scuffing their kicks.On the touchline, Cheng Cheng, a software development engineer at manufacturer Booster Robotics, said the company was working on “research-oriented applications” like refining foot and hand movements and interactions with AI.Despite the scrappy game — won 5-2 by a pair of robots in pink jerseys — the 36-year-old was upbeat about the firm’s future prospects.”This is a starting point for us to make our robots more robust and fall-resistant… (and to) enhance their strength,” he told AFP.

Afghanistan’s Taliban government took over management of Kabul’s famed Serena hotel on Saturday, a hotel statement said, a luxury property targeted by Taliban attacks during their insurgency. The Kabul Serena Hotel was run for nearly 20 years by the Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development in the Afghan capital and was popular with business travellers and foreign guests. “Kabul Serena Hotel shall be closing its operations effective February 01, 2025,” a statement from Serena on Friday night said. Hotel operations are now handled by the Hotel State Owned Corporation (HSOC), the statement added. “Since opening in 2005, Kabul Serena Hotel has been an integral part of Kabul’s social fabric, an iconic presence in the city, and a symbol of our unwavering commitment to the people of Afghanistan,” the statement said. Taliban government spokesmen did not immediately respond to requests for comment and AFP journalists were not allowed onto the property on Saturday morning. On Saturday, the hotel’s website only showed the statement about the handover and Kabul has been removed from the Serena brand’s list of destinations. The Switzerland-based organisation also did not respond to AFP requests for comment. The Serena has been the target of multiple deadly attacks by the Taliban before they swept to power in 2021, ousting the foreign-backed government.  In 2014, just weeks before a presidential election, four teenage gunmen with pistols hidden in their socks managed to penetrate several layers of security, killing nine people, including an AFP journalist and members of his family. In 2008, a suicide bombing left six dead, in an attack blamed on the current Taliban interior minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani.In 2021, the United States and Britain warned their citizens to avoid hotels in Afghanistan, singling out the Serena, underlining the shaky security situation in the aftermath of the Taliban takeover. In the years since their return to power, however, the Taliban authorities have worked to attract tourism to Afghanistan, touting a return to security. 

US President Donald Trump is set to unveil fresh tariffs Saturday on major trading partners Canada, Mexico and China, threatening upheaval across supply chains from energy to autos and raising inflation concerns.Trump has promised to impose 25 percent tariffs on immediate neighbors Canada and Mexico, pointing to their failure to stop illegal immigration and the flow of fentanyl across US borders.He also vowed a 10 percent rate on imports from China, the world’s second biggest economy, charging that it had a role in producing the drug.The United States runs “big deficits” with all three countries too — and this is another issue the president has honed in on.But imposing sweeping tariffs on the three biggest US trading partners carries risks for Trump, who swept to victory in November’s election on the back of public dissatisfaction over costs of living.Higher import costs would likely “dampen consumer spending and business investment,” said EY chief economist Gregory Daco.He expects inflation would rise by 0.7 percentage points in the first quarter this year with the tariffs, before gradually easing.”Rising trade policy uncertainty will heighten financial market volatility and strain the private sector, despite the administration’s pro-business rhetoric,” he said.Trump’s supporters have downplayed fears that tariff hikes would fuel inflation, with some suggesting his policy plans involving tax cuts and deregulation could help fuel growth instead.- Ready to respond -Democrat lawmakers criticized Trump’s plans with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer saying Friday: “I am concerned these new tariffs will further drive up costs for American consumers.”Canada and Mexico are major suppliers of US agricultural products, with imports totaling tens of billions of dollars from each country in a year.Tariffs would also hit the auto industry hard, with US light vehicle imports from Canada and Mexico in 2024 representing 22 percent of all vehicles sold in the country, said S&P Global Mobility.It added that automakers and suppliers also produce components throughout the region, meaning tariffs will likely increase costs for vehicles.”We should be focused on going hard against competitors who rig the game, like China, rather than attacking our allies,” Schumer said in a statement.Both Canada and Mexico have said they are prepared to respond if Trump acts on tariffs, raising the specter of an escalating conflict.But White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Friday dismissed concerns of a trade war.Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday that Ottawa is ready with “a purposeful, forceful, but reasonable, immediate response.””It’s not what we want. But if he moves forward we will also act,” he said, referring to Trump.Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her government would await any tariff announcement “with a cool head.””We have a plan A, plan B, plan C for whatever the US government decides,” she said, without giving details.- Lower oil tariff? -Hiking import taxes on crude oil from countries like Canada and Mexico could also bring “huge implications for US energy prices, especially in the US Midwest,” according to David Goldwyn and Joseph Webster of the Atlantic Council.Trump previously said he was considering an exemption for Canadian and Mexican oil imports, and on Friday added he was mulling a lower rate on oil.He told reporters: “I’m probably going to reduce the tariff a little bit on that.””We think we’re going to bring it down to 10 percent,” he added.Nearly 60 percent of US crude oil imports are from Canada, noted the Congressional Research Service.Canadian heavy oil is refined in the United States and regions dependent on it may lack a ready substitute.Canadian producers would bear some impact of tariffs but US refiners would also be hit with higher costs, said Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service. This could bring gasoline price increases.

President Donald Trump will implement tariffs Saturday on the three largest US trading partners — Canada, Mexico and China — saying there was nothing they could do to forestall him while vowing further levies on various industries.Trump has reiterated his plans for 25 percent tariffs on imports from neighboring Canada and Mexico, saying they have failed to crack down on illegal migrants crossing the US border and on the flow of fentanyl.He also threatened a 10 percent duty for Chinese goods on the same day, similarly over the drug.White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt affirmed Friday the February 1 imposition of these tariffs.”Both Canada and Mexico have allowed an unprecedented invasion of illegal fentanyl that is killing American citizens, and also immigrants into our country,” she told reporters.She did not commit to exemptions on sectors, and rejected warnings that this would spark a trade war.Beyond the three countries, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office Friday that tariffs on oil and gas could arrive around February 18.”Eventually we’re going to put tariffs on chips, we’re going to put tariffs on oil and gas,” he said, without specifying which countries he would target.He also vowed to impose higher duties on steel and aluminum, and eventually copper imports.Washington was “absolutely” going to impose tariffs on the European Union in the future as well, Trump said, adding that the bloc “has treated us so terribly.”Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau vowed Friday an “immediate response” if Trump acted, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her government was in close contact with Trump’s administration.Trump has not specified tools he would use, though analysts suggest he could tap emergency economic powers, which allow the president to regulate imports during a national emergency.Beijing has rebuffed claims of its complicity in the deadly fentanyl trade. Close US ally Canada has countered that below one percent of undocumented migrants and fentanyl entering the United States comes through its northern border.Some analysts believe tariff threats are a bargaining chip to accelerate the renegotiation of the existing trade deal, known as USMCA, between the United States, Mexico and Canada.But tariff hikes on the trading partners would likely prove a major shock, shaking up supply chains.- Oil in focus -Asked if Saturday’s tariffs would include Canadian crude oil, Trump told reporters: “I’m probably going to reduce the tariff a little bit on that.””We think we’re going to bring it down to 10 percent,” he added, noting that upcoming tariffs would come on top of existing rates.Nearly 60 percent of US crude oil imports are from Canada, noted the Congressional Research Service.Canadian heavy oil is refined in the United States and regions dependent on it may lack a ready substitute.Canadian producers would bear the brunt of tariffs but US refiners would also be hit with higher costs, said Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service. This could bring gasoline price increases.- Recession risks -Erica York of the Tax Foundation said the Canada, Mexico and China tariffs would shrink economic output by 0.4 percent and amount to “an average tax increase of more than $830 per US household in 2025.”Oxford Economics analysts warned that blanket tariffs and pushback could tip Canada and Mexico into recessions, adding that the United States also risks a shallow downturn.US merchandise imports from both countries largely enter duty free or with very low rates on average, said the Peterson Institute for International Economics.A tariff hike would likely shock industrial buyers and consumers.Trump is also mulling more tariffs on Chinese goods.Beijing has vowed to defend its “national interests,” and a foreign ministry spokeswoman previously warned that “there are no winners in a trade war.”During election campaigning, Trump raised the idea of levies of 60 percent or higher on Chinese imports.Isaac Boltansky of financial services firm BTIG expects “incremental tariff increases” on Chinese goods.”Our sense is that Trump will vacillate between carrots and sticks with China, with the ultimate goal being some sort of grand bargain before the end of his term,” he said in a note.

Wall Street stocks tumbled into negative territory Friday, ending the week on a downcast note after the White House reaffirmed plans to introduce new tariffs against Mexico, Canada and China beginning February 1.US equities had spent much of the day in the black in a cheery reaction to Apple results and US inflation data that met expectations.But in a briefing Friday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said tariffs against the three US trading partners would be imposed on Saturday, adding: “These are promises made and promises kept by the president.””The tariff talk in the afternoon injected a new wave of uncertainty,” Briefing.com’s Patrick O’Hare told AFP.”We think it just kind of proved to be a bit of a trigger for people to take some money off the table going into the weekend,” he said. Two of the three major US indices finished with weekly losses following a volatile stretch.AI-related stocks, particularly key chipmaker Nvidia, had plunged early in the week after China’s DeepSeek unveiled an artificial intelligence model rivalling those of American tech giants but developed at a fraction of the cost.Markets later clawed back most of those losses thanks to encouraging earnings and company strategy updates, and as some investors re-evaluated the risks US firms face from Chinese competition.Financial markets also digested the latest US inflation data, with the Federal Reserve’s favourite inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, accelerating for a third month in a row, reaching 2.6 percent in December as expected.”While there’s still further progress to be made on inflation, investors can breathe a sigh of relief and refocus on the market’s more notable fundamentals, like earnings growth and the economy,” said Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at the eToro trading platform.Earlier, London’s benchmark FTSE 100 hit fresh highs, helped by an almost 12 percent surge in the share price of Smiths Group after the British engineering company said it planned to streamline its business and return substantial sums to shareholders.Paris and Frankfurt ended little changed as early rises fizzled. European stocks had one of their best months in two years in January with Europe-wide indexes rising six percent since the start of 2025. Data showed German inflation unexpectedly slowed in January, the first decline in months, bolstering the case for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank.The ECB cut rates on Thursday, its fifth reduction since June.Concerns over Trump’s trade tactics pushed gold to new records above $2,800 an ounce. “The gold price is proving its haven credentials, as investors choose it to hedge fears about Trump’s tariff threats,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.- Key figures around 2210 GMT -New York – Dow: DOWN 0.8 percent at 44,544.66 (close)New York – S&P 500: DOWN 0.5 percent at 6,040.53 (close)New York – Nasdaq Composite: DOWN 0.3 percent at 19,627.44 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.3 percent at 8,673.96 (close)Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.1 percent at 7,950.17 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: UNCHANGED at 21,732.05 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.2 percent at 39,572.49 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: Closed for a holidayShanghai – Composite: Closed for a holidayEuro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0363 from $1.0391 on ThursdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2392 from $1.2419Dollar/yen: UP at 155.18 yen from 154.28 yen Euro/pound: DOWN at 83.59 pence from 83.67 pence West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.3 percent at $72.53 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.1 percent at $76.76 per barrel

President Donald Trump will implement tariffs Saturday on the three largest US trading partners — Canada, Mexico and China — the White House said, sparking alarm for global trade.Trump has reiterated his plans for 25 percent tariffs on neighbors Canada and Mexico, saying they have failed to crack down on illegal migrants crossing the US border and the flow of fentanyl.He also threatened a 10 percent duty for Chinese goods on the same day, similarly over the drug.”The February 1st deadline that President Trump put into place at a statement several weeks ago continues,” White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters Friday.”Both Canada and Mexico have allowed an unprecedented invasion of illegal fentanyl that is killing American citizens, and also immigrants into our country,” she added.She did not commit to exemptions on sectors, and rejected warnings that this would spark a trade war.On Friday, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he was “absolutely” going to impose tariffs on the European Union in future too, saying the bloc has “treated us so terribly.”Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau vowed Friday an “immediate response” if Trump acted, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her government was in close contact with Trump’s administration.The US president has not specified tools he would use, though analysts suggest he could tap emergency economic powers, which allow the president to regulate imports during a national emergency. But this could be hindered by lawsuits.Fentanyl has been responsible for tens of thousands of overdose deaths a year.Beijing has rebuffed claims of its complicity in the trade, while close US ally Canada has countered that below one percent of undocumented migrants and fentanyl entering the United States comes through its northern border.Some analysts believe tariff threats are a bargaining chip to accelerate the renegotiation of the existing trade deal known as USMCA between the United States, Mexico and Canada.”However, potentially dismantling a decades-long free-trade area could be a significant shock,” said a recent JPMorgan note.Tariffs are paid by US businesses to the government on purchases from abroad and the economic weight can fall on importers, foreign suppliers or consumers.- Recession risks -Assistant professor Wendong Zhang of Cornell University said Canada and Mexico would suffer the most under 25 percent US tariffs and with retaliations.”Canada and Mexico stand to lose 3.6 percent and two percent of real GDP respectively, while the US would suffer a 0.3 percent real GDP loss,” he added.Oxford Economics analysts warned that blanket tariffs and pushback could tip Canada and Mexico into recessions, and that the United States also risks a shallow downturn.Mexico’s biggest export sectors — food and beverages, transport equipment and electronics — account for the bulk of its manufacturing activity, said Joan Domene of Oxford Economics.Canada exported nearly 80 percent of its goods to the United States in 2023, and accounts for nearly 60 percent of US crude oil imports, noted the Congressional Research Service.It is unclear if oil imports may be exempted.Canadian heavy oil is refined in the United States and regions dependent on it may lack a ready substitute.Canadian producers would bear the brunt of tariffs but US refiners would also be hit with higher costs, said Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service. This could bring gasoline price increases.US merchandise imports from both countries largely enter duty free or with very low rates on average, said the Peterson Institute for International Economics.A tariff hike would shock industrial buyers and consumers.- ‘Grand bargain’ -Trump is also mulling more tariffs on Chinese goods.Beijing has vowed to defend its “national interests,” and a foreign ministry spokeswoman previously warned that “there are no winners in a trade war.”During election campaigning, Trump raised the idea of levies of 60 percent or higher on Chinese imports.Isaac Boltansky of financial services firm BTIG expects “incremental tariff increases” on Chinese goods.”Our sense is that Trump will vacillate between carrots and sticks with China, with the ultimate goal being some sort of grand bargain before the end of his term,” he said in a note.

A Swiss court convicted Trafigura and three people linked to the commodities trading firm of corruption in Angola, in what campaigners hailed Friday as a “historic” first in Switzerland.A Trafigura statement expressed disappointment at the ruling and said it was reviewing judgment. The lawyer for one former director with the company said he would appeal his conviction.The group, which is particularly active in oil trading, was fined 3 million Swiss francs ($3.2 million) for failing to properly monitor the activities of its intermediaries, the federal court said Friday.Michael Wainwright, Trafigura’s former operational director, was sentenced to 32 months, of which he must serve 12 months in prison.Prison terms were also handed down to a person who served as an intermediary for the payment of bribes, and to a former agent of an Angolan state company.A statement from Trafigura said: “We are disappointed by today’s decision in Switzerland concerning Trafigura Beheer BV and are reviewing the matter.”Trafigura has invested significant resources in strengthening its compliance programme over a number of years.”Wainwright’s lawyer, Daniel Kinzer, told AFP: “Mike Wainwright was convicted on the basis of very general assumptions, without taking into account elements which demonstrate that he was not involved.”  Wainwright “maintains that he did not order or facilitate any payment for corrupt purposes and intends to prove it before the Court of Appeal,” he added.- Legal ‘first’ -The case concerns the payment of bribes to a former executive of an Angolan state-owned distribution company in exchange for ship chartering and bunkering contracts. Swiss federal prosecutors referred it to the court in Bellinzona, in the Italian-speaking region of Switzerland, in 2023.Contacted by AFP, the office of the federal prosecutors said they were “satisfied” by the verdict.”This is the first conviction by a court in Switzerland of a company for acts of corruption of foreign public officials,” the office said.It was “a strong signal of the determination to fight against all forms of transnational corruption”, it added.Anti-corruption campaigners Public Eye welcomed the convictions.”This is the first time in Swiss history that a trading company has been convicted of corruption in a public trial,” it said.It added: “The verdict is a warning to the entire commodities industry, as Swiss justice seems increasingly determined to trace the chain of responsibility.”In March 2024, Trafigura, based in Singapore but with a significant presence in Geneva, agreed to plead guilty in the United States and pay $127 million over allegations of corruption in Brazil.Switzerland is home to some 900 commodities trading firms, located primarily in Geneva and Lugano. Founded in 1993, Trafigura employs 13,000 people worldwide and made a net profit of almost $2.8 billion in its 2023/2024 fiscal year ending September 30. 

President Donald Trump will impose tariffs Saturday on the three largest US trading partners — Canada, Mexico and China — the White House said, sparking concern for global trade.Trump has reiterated plans for 25 percent tariffs on neighbors Canada and Mexico on Saturday, unless they cracked down on illegal migrants crossing the US border and the flow of deadly fentanyl.He was also threatening an additional 10 percent duty for Chinese goods on the same day, similarly over the drug.”The February 1st deadline that President Trump put into place at a statement several weeks ago continues,” White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters Friday.She added that the issue remains the flow of illegal fentanyl.While Trump has not specified tools he would use, analysts have suggested he could tap emergency economic powers, which allow the president to regulate imports during a national emergency. But this could be hindered by lawsuits.Fentanyl, many times more powerful than heroin, has been responsible for tens of thousands of overdose deaths a year.Beijing has rebuffed claims of its complicity in the deadly trade, while close US ally Canada has countered that below one percent of undocumented migrants and fentanyl entering the United States comes through its northern border.JPMorgan analysts believe tariffs are “a bargaining chip” to accelerate the renegotiation of the existing trade deal known as USMCA between the United States, Mexico and Canada.”However, potentially dismantling a decades-long free-trade area could be a significant shock,” said a recent JPMorgan note.One lesson from Trump’s first term was that policy changes could be announced or threatened on short notice, it added.Tariffs are paid by US businesses to the government on purchases from abroad and the economic weight can fall on importers, foreign suppliers or consumers.- Recession risks -Assistant professor Wendong Zhang of Cornell University said Canada and Mexico would suffer the most under 25 percent US tariffs and with proportional retaliations.”Canada and Mexico stand to lose 3.6 percent and two percent of real GDP respectively, while the US would suffer a 0.3 percent real GDP loss,” he added.Oxford Economics analysts warned that blanket tariffs and pushback could tip Canada and Mexico into recessions, adding the United States also risks a shallow downturn.Mexico’s biggest export sectors — food and beverages, transport equipment and electronics — account for the bulk of its manufacturing activity, said Joan Domene, chief Latin America economist at Oxford Economics.Canada exported nearly 80 percent of its goods to the United States in 2023, and accounts for nearly 60 percent of US crude oil imports, noted the Congressional Research Service (CRS).It is unclear if there could be exceptions, such as on oil imports.Canadian heavy oil, for example, is refined in the United States and regions dependent on it may lack a ready substitute.Canadian producers would bear the brunt of tariffs but US refiners would also be hit with higher costs, said Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service. This could bring gasoline price increases.US merchandise imports from both countries largely enter duty free or with very low rates on average, said the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE).A tariff hike would shock both industrial buyers and consumers.Canadian officials said Ottawa would provide pandemic-level financial support to workers and businesses if US tariffs hit, vowing their readiness to respond.Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Friday her government was in close contact with Trump’s administration.- ‘Grand bargain’ -Trump is also mulling more tariffs on Chinese goods.Beijing has vowed to defend its “national interests,” and a foreign ministry spokeswoman previously warned that “there are no winners in a trade war.”On the election campaign trail, Trump raised the idea of levies of 60 percent or higher on Chinese imports.Isaac Boltansky of financial services firm BTIG expects “incremental tariff increases” on Chinese goods, with consumer goods likely to face lower hikes.”Our sense is that Trump will vacillate between carrots and sticks with China, with the ultimate goal being some sort of grand bargain before the end of his term,” he said in a recent note.