Afp Business Asia

Asian markets begin week on front foot, bitcoin rally stutters

Asian markets rose Monday following a record close on Wall Street as traders welcomed Donald Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary, while bitcoin’s push to $100,000 ran out of steam after coming within a whisker of the mark at the end of last week.The gains came ahead of the release of key US data that could provide a fresh idea about the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rates amid expectations the next president’s tax and tariffs plans will reignite inflation, tempering rate cut bets. Investors are also keeping tabs on the Ukraine and Middle East conflicts, which have helped push oil prices higher in recent weeks.Investors gave the thumbs-up to news that Trump had fingered billionaire investor Scott Bessent to lead the Treasury, with optimism he will take a considered approach to the economy.Bessent, CEO of hedge fund manager Key Square Group, has called for an extension of tax cuts from Trump’s first term, wants to reassert American energy dominance, and believes it is necessary to deal with the budget deficit.In recent times, he has called for tax reform and deregulation to spur growth, and wrote in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece that this would be key to “restarting the American growth engine” and keeping prices in check.This month, he called tariffs “a negotiating tool with our trading partners” in an opinion piece for Fox News, adding it was “a means to finally stand up for Americans”.While his views are seen as hawkish, markets started on a bright note, with Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, telling Bloomberg TV: “(Bessent) brings this sense of almost gradualism to the administration as opposed to taking a big bang approach to making big policy changes.” Markets may be relieved that the pick signals “an ‘America First’ kind of administration but not an ‘America Exclusively’ kind of administration”, he added.After a strong finish Friday on Wall Street — where the Dow ended on a fresh record — Asian markets followed suit.Tokyo advanced more than one percent, even as the yen pushed up against the dollar, while Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Wellington, Manila and Jakarta also sat in positive territory.Bitcoin sat at around $97,600, having set a record high of $99,728.34 on Friday, with traders awaiting the next catalyst to push it past the historic $100,000 mark.The digital currency has bounded about 50 percent higher since Trump’s election at the start of the month, with hopes he will usher in measures to ease restrictions on it.Attention this week will be on a series of releases out of Washington that could sway US central bankers ahead of their next rate decision in December.Among the key points of interest are the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, minutes from the bank’s most recent policy meeting, economic growth, and jobless claims.Oil prices dipped after a recent run-up fuelled by concerns over Israel’s ongoing wars with Hamas and Hezbollah as well as Russia’s decision to hit Ukraine with a new-generation intermediate-range missile that ramped up tensions with the West.- Key figures around 0230 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.5 percent at 38,868.68 (break)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.4 percent at 19,300.00Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,283.13Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0484 from $1.0418 on FridayPound/dollar: UP at $1.2599 from $1.2530Dollar/yen: DOWN at 153.68 yen from 154.83 yenEuro/pound: UP at 83.20 pence from 83.11 penceWest Texas Intermediate: FLAT at $71.24 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.1 percent at $75.13 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 1.0 percent at 44,296.51 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 1.4 percent at 8,262.08 (close)

Afghan women turn to entrepreneurship under Taliban

When Zainab Ferozi saw Afghan women struggling to feed their families after Taliban authorities took power, she took matters into her own hands and poured her savings into starting a business.Two-and-a-half years after putting 20,000 Afghanis ($300) earned from teaching sewing classes into a carpet weaving enterprise, she now employs around a dozen women who lost their jobs or who had to abandon their education due to Taliban government rules. Through her business in the western province of Herat, the 39-year-old also “covers all the household expenses” of her family of six, she told AFP from her office where samples of brightly coloured and exquisitely woven rugs and bags are displayed.Her husband, a labourer, cannot find work in one of the poorest countries in the world. Ferozi is one of many women who have launched small businesses in the past three years to meet their own needs and support other Afghan women, whose employment sharply declined after the Taliban took power in 2021. Before the Taliban takeover, women made up 26 percent of public sector workers, a figure that “has effectively decreased to zero”, according to UN Women.Girls and women have also been banned from secondary schools and universities under restrictions the UN has described as “gender apartheid”.  Touba Zahid, a 28-year-old mother-of-one, started making jams and pickles in the small basement of her home in the capital Kabul after she was forced to stop her university education. “I came into the world of business… to create job opportunities for women so they can have an income that at least covers their immediate needs,” Zahid said. Half a dozen of her employees, wearing long white coats, were busy jarring jams and pickles labelled “Mom’s delicious homecooking”. – Growing number of businesses -While women may be making the stock, running the shops in Afghanistan remains mostly a man’s job. Saleswomen like Zahid “cannot go to the bazaar to promote and sell their products” themselves, said Fariba Noori, chairwoman of the Afghanistan Women’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry (AWCCI).Another issue for Afghan businesswomen is the need for a “mahram” — a male family member chaperone — to accompany them to other cities or provinces to purchase raw materials, said Noori. After 40 years of successive conflicts, many Afghan women have been widowed and lost many male relatives. Despite these challenges, the number of businesses registered with AWCCI has increased since the Taliban takeover, according to Noori. The number went “from 600 big companies to 10,000″ mainly small, home-based businesses and a few bigger companies, said Noori, herself a businesswoman for 12 years. Khadija Mohammadi, who launched her eponymous brand in 2022 after she lost her private school teaching job, now employs more than 200 women sewing dresses and weaving carpets”I am proud of every woman who is giving a hand to another woman to help her become independent,” said the 26-year-old. Though businesses like Mohammadi’s are a lifeline, the salaries ranging from 5,000 to 13,000 Afghanis, cannot cover all costs and many women are still stalked by economic hardship.Qamar Qasimi, who lost her job as a beautician after the Taliban authorities banned beauty salons in 2023, said that even with her salary she and her husband struggle to pay rent and feed their family of eight.”When I worked in the beauty salon, we could earn 3,000-7,000 Afghanis for styling one bride, but here we get 5,000 per month,” said the 24-year-old.”It’s not comparable but I have no other choice,” she added, the room around her full of women chatting as they worked at 30 looms. – Women-only spaces -The closure of beauty salons was not only a financial blow, but also removed key spaces for women to socialise. Zohra Gonish decided to open a restaurant to create a women-only space in northeastern Badakhshan province.”Women can come here and relax,” said the 20-year-old entrepreneur. “We wanted the staff to be women so that the women customers can feel comfortable here.”But starting her business in 2022, aged 18 was not easy in a country where the labour force participation for women is 10 times lower than the world average, according to the World Bank.  It took Gonish a week to convince her father to support her.Aside from helping their families and having space to socialise, some women said work has given them a sense of purpose.Sumaya Ahmadi, 15, joined Ferozi’s carpet company to help her parents after she had to leave school and became “very depressed”.”(Now) I’m very happy and I no longer have any mental health problems. I’m happier and I feel better.”The work has also given her a new goal: to help her two brothers build their futures.”Because schools’ doors are closed to girls, I work instead of my brothers so they can study and do something with their lives.”

Mounting economic costs of India’s killer smog

Noxious smog smothering the plains of north India is not only choking the lungs of residents and killing millions, but also slowing the country’s economic growth.India’s capital New Delhi frequently ranks among the world’s most polluted cities. Each winter, vehicle and factory emissions couple with farm fires from surrounding states to blanket the city in a dystopian haze.Acrid smog this month contains more than 50 times the World Health Organization recommended limit of fine particulate matter — dangerous cancer-causing microparticles known as PM2.5 pollutants, that enter the bloodstream through the lungs.Experts say India’s worsening air pollution is having a ruinous impact on its economy — with one study estimating losses to the tune of $95 billion annually, or roughly three percent of the country’s GDP.The true extent of the economic price India is paying could be even greater.”The externality costs are huge and you can’t assign a value to it,” said Vibhuti Garg, of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.Bhargav Krishna of the Delhi-based research collective Sustainable Futures Collaborative said “costs add up in every phase”.”From missing a day at work to developing chronic illness, the health costs associated with that, to premature death and the impact that has on the family of the person,” Krishna told AFP.- ‘Health and wealth hazard’-Still, several studies have tried to quantify the damage.One by the global consultancy firm Dalberg concluded that in 2019, air pollution cost Indian businesses $95 billion due to “reduced productivity, work absences and premature death”.The amount is nearly three percent of India’s budget, and roughly twice its annual public health expenditure.”India lost 3.8 billion working days in 2019, costing $44 billion to air pollution caused by deaths,” according to the study which calculated that toxic air “contributes to 18 percent of all deaths in India”.Pollution has also had a debilitating impact on the consumer economy because of direct health-related eventualities, the study said, reducing footfall and causing annual losses of $22 billion.The numbers are even more staggering for Delhi, the epicentre of the crisis, with the capital province losing as much as six percent of its GDP annually to air pollution.Restaurateur Sandeep Anand Goyle called the smog a “health and wealth hazard”.”People who are health conscious avoid stepping out so we suffer,” said Goyle, who heads the Delhi chapter of the National Restaurant Association of India.Tourism has also been impacted, as the smog season coincides with the period when foreigners traditionally visit northern India — too hot for many during the blisteringly hot summers.”The smog is giving a bad name to India’s image,” said Rajiv Mehra of the Indian Association of Tour Operators.Delhi faces an average 275 days of unhealthy air a year, according to monitors.- ‘Premature deaths’ -Piecemeal initiatives by the government — — that critics call half-hearted — have failed to adequately address the problem.Academic research indicates that its detrimental impact on the Indian economy is adding up.A 2023 World Bank paper said that air pollution’s “micro-level” impacts on the economy translate to “macro-level effects that can be observed in year-to-year changes in GDP”.The paper estimates that India’s GDP would have been 4.5 percent higher at the end of 2023, had the country managed to curb pollution by half in the previous 25 years.Another study published in the Lancet health journal on the direct health impacts of air pollution in 2019 estimated an annual GDP deceleration of 1.36 percent due to “lost output from premature deaths and morbidity”.Desperate emergency curbs — such as shuttering schools to reduce traffic emissions as well as banning construction — come with their own economic costs.”Stopping work for weeks on end every winter makes our schedules go awry, and we end up overshooting budgets,” said Sanjeev Bansal, the chairman of the Delhi unit of the Builders Association of India.Pollution’s impact on the Indian economy is likely to get worse if action is not taken.With India’s median age expected to rise to 32 by 2030, the Dalberg study predicts that “susceptibility to air pollution will increase, as will the impact on mortality”.

Nvidia CEO says will balance compliance and tech advances under Trump

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said Saturday that his company will balance legal compliance and technological advances under the incoming administration of Donald Trump, and nothing will stop the global advancement of artificial intelligence.The US chipmaking giant this week reported record high quarterly revenue on the back of strong AI chip demand, though investors are wary of US-China tensions reheating during a new Trump term.The Taiwan-born entrepreneur was in Hong Kong to receive an honorary doctorate in engineering from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.”Whatever happens, we’ll balance simultaneously compliance with laws and policies, continue to advance our technology, and support and serve customers all over the world,” Huang told reporters on Saturday.”We’ll continue to do that and we’ll be able to do that just fine.”The Biden administration has restricted Nvidia from selling some of its top AI chips to China, which it sees as a strategic competitor in the field of advanced semiconductors.Huang said Saturday that “open science and open research in AI is absolutely global… nothing that I see in the future is going to stop that.”Huang said in a speech that the “age of AI has started” and lauded China’s “significant contributions” to the scientific research that push forward AI technology.”AI is certainly the most important technology of our time, and potentially of all times,” he said.Tech giants around the world have invested tens of billions of dollars into Nvidia’s technology to train their generative AI models and support their heavy computing needs.Nvidia surpassed Apple early this month to become the highest valued company in the world as the artificial intelligence boom continues to excite Wall Street.

Dow ends at fresh record as weak eurozone data hits euro

The Dow rocketed to a fresh record Friday, extending a post-election US equity rally while the euro retreated against the dollar following weak eurozone data.The blue-chip index piled on one percent to end the day at 44,296.51, narrowly overtaking a record set earlier this month.Major American indices have been at or near record territory since the US election, with investors betting that President-elect Donald Trump’s program of tax cuts and regulatory scale-back would more than offset the drag from expected tariff increases.”The trading most of this week has been influenced by the growth agenda,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management.Market watchers have been cheered this week by a broadening of the rally beyond the tech names that dominated earlier in the year.The dollar also continued to strengthen, reflecting less certainty about additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the US currency’s status as a haven asset amid escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war.The euro was also battered by a closely watched survey showing contractions in November business activity in the eurozone. The HCOB Flash Eurozone purchasing managers’ index (PMI) published by S&P Global dropped to 48.1 compared to 50.0 in October, the most marked rate of contraction in 10 months. Any reading above 50 indicates growth, while a figure below 50 shows contraction.”Things could hardly have turned out much worse,” said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. “The eurozone’s manufacturing sector is sinking deeper into recession, and now the services sector is starting to struggle after two months of marginal growth.”But as the euro fell both Paris and Frankfurt stocks managed to recover their losses and advance.”The eurozone data has increased the chance of more rate cuts from the ECB next year,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, as well a cut of 50 basis points next month.”Investors have been jolted into recalibrating interest rate expectations on the back of this bleak economic news,” she added.London managed to gain 1.4 percent despite data showing that retail sales figures for October undershot forecasts, as the pound fell against the dollar.In Asia, Tokyo climbed as the government prepared to announce a $140 billion stimulus package to kickstart the country’s stuttering economy.However, Hong Kong and Shanghai sank on a sell-off in tech firms caused by weak earnings from firms including Temu-owner PDD Holdings and internet giant Baidu.Bitcoin set a new record high above $99,500 Friday, before easing back slightly.The leading digital currency is expected to soon burst through $100,000 as investors grow increasingly hopeful that Trump will pass measures to deregulate the crypto sector.Bitcoin has soared more than 40 percent since the Republican’s election victory this month and has more than doubled since the turn of the year.The recent surge has also been “driven by news that Trump could set up an official crypto department that would sit in the heart of US government,” said XTB’s Brooks.- Key figures around 2130 GMT -New York – Dow: UP 1.0 percent at 44,296.51 (close)New York – S&P 500: UP 0.4 percent at 5,969.34 (close)New York – Nasdaq Composite: UP 0.2 percent at 19,003.65 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 1.4 percent at 8,262.08 (close)Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.6 percent at 7,255.01 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.9 percent at 19,322.59 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.7 percent at 38,283.85 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.9 percent at 19,229.97 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 3.1 percent at 3,267.19 (close)Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0418 from $1.0474 on ThursdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2530 from $1.2589Dollar/yen: UP at 154.83 yen from 154.54 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 83.11 pence from 83.20 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 1.6 percent at $71.24 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 1.3 percent at $75.17 per barrelburs-jmb/mlm

Dollar gains amid escalating geopolitical tensions

The dollar and gold gained Friday amid escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war, while stocks got a boost from data.Bitcoin pushed on further with its march towards the $100,000 mark, as the cryptocurrency benefits from US president-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to ease regulation around digital tokens.The dollar, considered a safe haven asset, was bolstered by geopolitical uncertainty after Russia said the conflict in Ukraine had the characteristics of a “global” war and did not rule out strikes on Western countries.Meanwhile, the Russian ruble slumped to its lowest level since March 2022 against the US dollar, a day after Moscow fired a hypersonic missile on Ukraine and Washington sanctioned a key Russian bank.Yields on government bonds, another safe haven asset, fell as investors snapped them up, while the gold price rose.”Escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which triggered safe haven gold inflows, pushed the precious metal price to new all-time highs in euros and the pound sterling,” said IG analyst Axel Rudolph.Gold also posted strong gains in US dollars.The euro sank to a two-year-low against the dollar and the pound retreated after closely watched surveys showed contractions in business activity in November in the eurozone and Britain. Paris and Frankfurt stocks initially fell after a survey showed that Germany and France, the eurozone’s two biggest economies, were once again driving the weakness, with the latter posting the fastest fall in activity since January. But as the euro fell both Paris and Frankfurt stocks managed to recover their losses and advance.”The eurozone data has increased the chance of more rate cuts from the ECB next year,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, as well a cut of 50 basis points next month.”Investors have been jolted into recalibrating interest rate expectations on the back of this bleak economic news,” she added.London managed to gain 1.4 percent despite data showing that retail sales figures for October undershot forecasts, as the pound fell against the dollar.Wall Street stocks mostly advanced, comforted by positive economic data.”US indices were propped up by the strongest US private sector growth since 2022,” said IG’s Rudolph.In Asia, Tokyo climbed as the government prepared to announce a $140 billion stimulus package to kickstart the country’s stuttering economy.However, Hong Kong and Shanghai sank on a sell-off in tech firms caused by weak earnings from firms including Temu-owner PDD Holdings and internet giant Baidu.Bitcoin set a new record high of $99,505.45 Friday morning before easing back slightly.It is broadly expected to soon burst through $100,000 as investors grow increasingly hopeful that Trump will pass measures to deregulate the crypto sector.Bitcoin has soared more than 40 percent since his election victory this month and has more than doubled since the turn of the year.The recent surge has also been “driven by news that Trump could set up an official crypto department that would sit in the heart of US government”, said XTB’s Brooks.In a further boost, the top US securities regulator Gary Gensler, who oversaw measures to rein in cryptocurrencies, announced Thursday that he intends to step down when Trump takes office in January.The move clears the way for the president-elect to pick Gensler’s successor.- Key figures around 1630 GMT -New York – Dow: UP 0.6 percent at 44,113.57 pointsNew York – S&P 500: UP 0.1 percent at 5,956.74New York – Nasdaq Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 18,944.74London – FTSE 100: UP 1.4 percent at 8,262.08 (close)Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.6 percent at 7,255.01 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.9 percent at 19,322.59 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.7 percent at 38,283.85 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.9 percent at 19,229.97 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 3.1 percent at 3,267.19 (close)Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0396 from $1.0476 on ThursdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2513 from $1.2587Dollar/yen: UP at 154.88 yen from 154.54 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 83.10 pence from 83.20 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.9 percent at $70.75 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.8 percent at $74.81 per barrelburs-rl/sbk

Stock markets diverge, dollar gains amid escalating geopolitical tensions

Global stocks diverged and the dollar gained Friday following a bounce on Wall Street as traders weighed weak European economic data and concerns over escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war.Bitcoin pushed on further with its march towards the $100,000 mark, as the cryptocurrency benefits from US president-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to ease regulation around digital tokens.The euro hit a two-year-low against the dollar and the pound retreated after a closely watched survey showed a contraction in business activity in November in the eurozone and the UK. The dollar, considered a safe haven asset, was also bolstered by geopolitical uncertainty after Russia said the conflict in Ukraine had the characteristics of a “global” war and did not rule out strikes on Western countries.Paris and Frankfurt stocks fell as the survey showed that Germany and France, the eurozone’s two biggest economies, were once again driving the weakness, with the latter posting the fastest fall in activity since January. “Businesses across Europe seem to be acutely concerned about the risks posed by president-elect Trump’s radical tariff proposals”, said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at financial technology firm Ebury.Germany’s third-quarter growth was also downgraded Friday with official data showing it expanded even more weakly than previously thought.London managed to gain around 0.7 percent despite data showing that retail sales figures for October undershot forecasts.All three main indexes on Wall Street ended Thursday on a positive note with observers saying traders had dialled back their gloom over Nvidia’s huge earnings that fell short of the highest expectations.In Asia, Tokyo climbed as the government prepared to announce a $140 billion stimulus package to kickstart the country’s stuttering economy.However, Hong Kong and Shanghai sank on a sell-off in tech firms caused by weak earnings from firms including Temu-owner PDD Holdings and internet giant Baidu.Bitcoin set a new record high of $99,505.45 Friday morning before easing back slightly.It is broadly expected to soon burst through $100,000 as investors grow increasingly hopeful that Trump will pass measures to deregulate the crypto sector.Bitcoin has soared more than 40 percent since his election victory this month and it has more than doubled since the turn of the year.The recent surge has also been “driven by news that Trump could set up an official crypto department that would sit in the heart of US government”, said Kathleen Brooks, research director at trading group XTB.In a further boost, the top US securities regulator Gary Gensler, who oversaw measures to rein in cryptocurrencies, announced Thursday that he intends to step down when Trump takes office in January.The move clears the way for the president-elect to pick Gensler’s successor.- Key figures around 1115 GMT -London – FTSE 100: UP 0.7 percent at 8,203.26Paris – CAC 40: DOWN 0.3 percent at 7,192.43Frankfurt – DAX: DOWN 0.1 percent at 19,120.91Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.7 percent at 38,283.85 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.9 percent at 19,229.97 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 3.1 percent at 3,267.19 (close)New York – Dow: UP 1.1 percent at 43,870.35 (close)Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0420 from $1.0476 on ThursdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2515 from $1.2587Dollar/yen: DOWN at 154.43 yen from 154.54 yenEuro/pound: UP at 83.23 pence from 83.20 penceWest Texas Intermediate: FLAT percent at $70.12 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.1 percent at $74.28 per barrel

Japan government approves $140bn stimulus

Japan’s minority government signed off Friday on a $140-billion stimulus drive aimed at putting more money in consumers’ pockets after the ruling party’s worst election result in 15 years.The October 27 contest saw voters — angry over corruption in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and inflation — deprive new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition of a majority in parliament’s lower house.The package worth 21.9 trillion yen ($141.8 billion) includes handouts of around 30,000 yen for low-income households, fuel and energy subsidies, and assistance to small businesses, according to the government.The overall business impact was expected to be 39 trillion yen.”To enhance the vitality of Japan as a whole, we will strengthen the growth of the national and regional economies and raise wages for all people, of all generations,” top government spokesman Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters.To pay for the package, the second in as many years, the government will table a supplementary budget by the end of the year in the lower house.But views about the move among people on the streets were mixed.Voter Katsuhiro Hirakawa, 63, accused politicians of making “whatever decisions they want without listening to the voices of us ordinary citizens”.Authorities should “think carefully about why they need more tax revenue, or how they can reduce wasteful spending, before making decisions on budgets”, he told AFP in Tokyo.And Hisaki Sato, 46, wanted more help for the middle class, adding: “We’re now living in an age when not only low-income households but middle-income families are in need of more stimulus measures.”The middle class is “home to many people who are contributing directly to the economy, so I want the government to cherish them as well”.- Debt mountain -To win enough lawmakers’ support, Ishiba agreed to include the lifting of an income tax threshold pushed by the opposition Democratic Party for the People (DPP).The smaller party says this will ease labour shortages and boost consumer spending by encouraging part-time staff to work longer hours and earn more.But critics worry that this will reduce tax revenues by trillions of yen and increase Japan’s huge debt pile, which equates to more than 200 percent of gross domestic product.With the Bank of Japan expected to keep hiking interest rates, this debt mountain will also cost more and more, SMBC Nikko Securities economist Yoshimasa Maruyama said.Tax cuts “must be accompanied by a permanent source of revenue to fill the gap”, Maruyama wrote in a research note.Ishiba, 67, has promised to revitalise depressed rural regions and to address the “quiet emergency” of Japan’s shrinking population with measures to support families such as flexible working hours.Going forward, businesses worry that the need to curry favour with opposition parties means Ishiba will avoid reforms needed to improve Japan’s competitiveness.There are also concerns that the government may pressure the Bank of Japan to go slow on raising interest rates, even if this leads to a weaker yen.- Rice prices soar -Government data Friday put headline inflation last month at a modest 2.3 percent, but it showed rice up nearly 60 percent year-on-year, revealing the pain for ordinary Japanese.The price of the staple rocketed because of hot weather and water shortages and after a “megaquake” warning in August led to hoarding. Record inflows of hungry tourists were also blamed.Separately, Ishiba has promised to spend 10 trillion yen through 2030 to boost Japan’s semiconductor and artificial intelligence sectors and help the nation regain its tech edge.After dominating tech in the 1980s, “Japan had quite a long period of almost just sitting back and observing a lot of this innovation,” particularly in artificial intelligence, said Kelly Forbes at the AI Asia Pacific Institute.”What we have seen in the last maybe two to three years is Japan really waking up to the potential” of such developments, she told AFP.

Most markets track Wall St gains, bitcoin closes on $100,000

Most markets gained Friday after a bounce on Wall Street, while bitcoin continued its march higher to move within touching distance of the $100,000 mark.Rising geopolitical tensions tempered the atmosphere and lifted oil again after Russia hit Ukraine with a new-generation intermediate-range missile and sent a warning to the West.The gains in equities followed a retreat in most regional bourses Thursday after a forecast-topping earnings report from chip titan Nvidia still fell short of investors’ hopes and sparked worries that a tech-fuelled surge in markets may have run its course.However, all three main indexes on Wall Street ended on a positive note with observers saying traders had dialled back their gloom over Nvidia as they digested pledges by the firm over production of its keenly anticipated Blackwell line-up.Investors also took heart from comments by Chicago Federal Reserve chief Austan Goolsbee, who said he saw interest rates coming down more as the US central bank makes progress in bringing inflation down to its two percent target.He pointed out that regarding the jobs market and prices “things are getting close to where we want to settle”, adding that “it follows that we will probably need to move rates to where we think they should settle, too”.”If we look out over the next year or so, it feels to me like rates will end up a fair bit lower than where they are today,” he said.The remarks helped temper recent worries that the Fed will have to scale back its rate plans if US President-elect Donald Trump pushes through his promised tax cuts and import tariffs, which some warn could reignite inflation.The gains in New York filtered through to Asia.Tokyo climbed as the government prepared to announce a $140 billion stimulus package to kickstart the country’s stuttering economy, while Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Wellington, Mumbai, Bangkok, Taipei and Jakarta also rose.However, Hong Kong and Shanghai sank on a sell-off in tech firms caused by weak earnings from firms including PDD and Baidu. Manila also slipped.London and Paris opened higher while Frankfurt also advanced even after data showed Germany’s economy grew less than initially thought in the third quarter.Bitcoin, meanwhile, set a new record high of $99,505.44.While it later eased back slightly, there is a broad expectation that it will soon burst through $100,000 as investors grow increasingly hopeful that Trump will pass measures to deregulate the crypto sector.Bets on an easier environment for digital units in a Trump White House have seen bitcoin soar more than 40 percent since his election victory this month, while it has more than doubled since the turn of the year.Adding to the positive vibes was news that Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler — who oversaw measures to rein in cryptocurrencies — intends to leave when Trump takes office on January 20, Bloomberg reported. Oil prices extended the previous day’s gains on rising Ukraine worries after Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that the conflict had characteristics of a “global” war and did not rule out strikes on Western countries.His comments came after Moscow test-fired a new missile at its neighbour, which Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky called a major ramping up of the “scale and brutality” of the war.Both main crude contracts extended the two percent gains seen Thursday when natural gas prices also hit their highest level in a year.- Key figures around 0810 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.7 percent at 38,283.85 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.9 percent at 19,229.97 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 3.1 percent at 3,267.19 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.7 percent at 8,202.86Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0487 from $1.0476 on ThursdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2574 from $1.2587Dollar/yen: UP at 154.72 yen from 154.54 yenEuro/pound: UP at 83.40 pence from 83.20 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.7 percent at $70.56 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.6 percent at $74.65 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 1.1 percent at 43,870.35 (close)

Japan government to approve $140bn stimulus

Japan’s minority government was set Friday to sign off on a $140-billion stimulus drive aimed at putting more money in consumers’ pockets after the ruling party’s worst election result in 15 years.The October 27 contest saw voters — angry over corruption in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and inflation — deprive new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition of a majority in parliament’s lower house.Chief government spokesman Yoshimasa Hayashi said Friday that the package — reportedly worth 21.9 trillion yen ($141.8 billion) — would be approved by Ishiba’s cabinet later in the day.”The package will have business impacts worth around 39 trillion yen and additional general account spending, which provide backing for the package, will be 13.9 trillion yen,” Hayashi said.”We aim to emerge out of the cost-cut style economy and transfer into the high added value creation economy,” he told reporters.It includes energy and fuel subsidies and cash handouts up to 30,000 yen ($194) to low-income households in the world’s fourth-biggest economy, according to the media.To pay for the package, the second in as many years, the government will table a supplementary budget by the end of the year in the lower house.To win enough lawmakers’ support, Ishiba agreed to include the lifting of an income tax threshold pushed by the opposition Democratic Party for the People (DPP).The smaller party says this will ease labour shortages and boost consumer spending by encouraging part-time staff to work longer hours and earn more.But critics worry that this will reduce tax revenues by trillions of yen and increase Japan’s huge debt pile, which equates to more than 200 percent of gross domestic product.The strain on Japan’s public finances is set to grow with the number of pensioners rising and the number of people working and paying into state coffers projected to decline.- ‘Quiet emergency’ -With the Bank of Japan expected to keep hiking interest rates, this debt mountain will also cost more and more, SMBC Nikko Securities economist Yoshimasa Maruyama said.Tax cuts “must be accompanied by a permanent source of revenue to fill the gap”, Maruyama wrote in a research note.Ishiba, 67, has promised to revitalise depressed rural regions and to address the “quiet emergency” of Japan’s shrinking population with measures to support families such as flexible working hours.Going forward, businesses worry that the need to curry favour with opposition parties means Ishiba will avoid reforms needed to improve Japan’s competitiveness.There are also concerns that the government may pressure the Bank of Japan to go slow on raising interest rates, even if this leads to a weaker yen.Government data Friday put headline inflation last month at a modest 2.3 percent, but it showed rice up nearly 60 percent year-on-year, revealing the pain for ordinary Japanese.The price of the staple rocketed because of hot weather and water shortages and after a “megaquake” warning in August led to hoarding. Record inflows of hungry tourists were also blamed.Separately, Ishiba has promised to spend 10 trillion yen through 2030 to boost Japan’s semiconductor and artificial intelligence sectors and help the nation regain its tech edge.The new stimulus package may include plans for the government to buy a 200-billion-yen stake in next-generation chip venture Rapidus, according to media reports.After dominating tech in the 1980s, “Japan had a quite a long period of almost just sitting back and observing a lot of this innovation, particularly when it comes to artificial intelligence”, said Kelly Forbes at the AI Asia Pacific Institute.”What we have seen in the last maybe two to three years is Japan really waking up to the potential” of such developments, she told AFP.