Afp Business Asia

Asian markets build on Trump rally, yen climbs after BoJ cut

Asian markets rose Friday after a record day on Wall Street in response to Donald Trump’s tax-cut pledge, while the yen strengthened after a widely expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.In a much-anticipated speech via video link at the Davos World Forum in Switzerland, the president pushed for lower interest rates and said he would cut taxes for companies investing in the United States while imposing tariffs on those who do not.He also called on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, adding that “when the oil comes down, it’ll bring down prices” and in turn bring interest rates down. His comments come after he said on the campaign trail that he would slash taxes, regulations and immigration while hitting key trading partners with tariffs.That fuelled worries among some economists that he could reignite inflation and cause the Federal Reserve to pause its recent run of rate cuts, or even increase them.US traders appeared to welcome the speech, with the S&P 500 hitting a record high, while the Dow and Nasdaq also advanced.Asia mostly followed suit, with Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul and Bangkok all up, though Singapore, Wellington, Mumbai, Jakarta and Manila slipped.Markets have enjoyed a broadly positive start to the president’s second term amid relief that while he has warned about imposing big tariffs on key partners, he has so far been less abrasive than his first four years.Matt Burdett and Adam Sparkman at Thornburg Investment Management said that could be due to circumstances.”Eight years ago, Trump’s aggressive trade policies were implemented against a backdrop of low inflation and low rates, creating room for bold actions,” they said in a commentary. “Today, elevated price levels are a key concern for voters and policymakers alike. Given this reality, we question if Trump’s tariff posturing may now be aimed more at pressuring China and other foreign countries into negotiating favourable trade terms for the US.”- Japan hikes rates -The Bank of Japan on Friday lifted borrowing costs to their highest level since 2008 in a well-telegraphed move, with data showing another jump in inflation last month that reinforced expectations for further tightening.”Japan’s economic activity and prices have been developing generally in line with the Bank’s outlook, and the likelihood of realising the outlook has been rising,” the bank said in a statement.The yen rallied against the dollar after officials flagged that more increases were likely in the pipeline as inflation remains elevated and officials slowly withdraw stimulus that has kept monetary policy at ultra-loose levels for years.”With no market turbulence after Trump’s inauguration,” conditions for the BoJ to hike its policy rate have been met, said Ko Nakayama, chief economist of Okasan Securities Research.”Raising just 25 basis points to 0.5 percent won’t cool the economy,” he said. Moody’s Analytics said “the weak yen is a key reason” for the hike, along with a run of forecast-beating inflation prints.The yen has come under pressure against the dollar in recent months after the Fed dialled back its expectations for rate cuts this year and the concerns over Trump’s impact on inflation.The BoJ decision comes ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week, which will be closely watched for its views on the outlook under the new president.Oil prices extended Thursday’s losses after Trump’s call to Riyadh and OPEC, with a recent build in US stockpiles adding to the weakness.- Key figures around 0400 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.4 percent at 40,105.92Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.8 percent at 20,057.46 (break)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.7 percent at 3,253.79 (break)Dollar/yen: DOWN at 155.50 yen from 156.03 yen on ThursdayEuro/dollar: UP at $1.0447 from $1.0415Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2394 from $1.2352Euro/pound: DOWN at 84.30 pence from 84.31 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.2 percent at $74.47 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.2 percent at $78.14 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.9 percent at 44,565.07 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.2 percent at 8,565.20 (close)

Asian markets build on Trump rally, yen steady ahead of BoJ

Asian markets rose Friday after a record day on Wall Street in response to Donald Trump’s tax-cut pledge, while the yen weakened slightly ahead of an expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan later in the day.In a much-anticipated speech via video link at the Davos World Forum in Switzerland, the new president pushed for lower interest rates and said he would cut taxes for companies investing in the United States while imposing tariffs on those who do not.He also called on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, adding that “when the oil comes down, it’ll bring down prices” and in turn bring interest rates down. His comments come after he said on the campaign trail that he would slash taxes, regulations and immigration while hitting key trading partners with tariffs.That fuelled worries among some economists that he could reignite inflation and cause the Federal Reserve to pause its recent run of rate cuts, or even increase them.US traders appeared to welcome the speech, with the S&P 500 hitting a record high, while the Dow and Nasdaq also advanced.Asia mostly followed suit, with Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul and Singapore all up, though Shanghai and Manila slipped with Manila barely changed.Markets have enjoyed a broadly positive start to the president’s second term amid relief that while he has warned about imposing big tariffs on key partners, he has so far been less abrasive than his first four years.Matt Burdett and Adam Sparkman at Thornburg Investment Management said that could be due to circumstances.”Eight years ago, Trump’s aggressive trade policies were implemented against a backdrop of low inflation and low rates, creating room for bold actions,” they said in a commentary. “Today, elevated price levels are a key concern for voters and policymakers alike. Given this reality, we question if Trump’s tariff posturing may now be aimed more at pressuring China and other foreign countries into negotiating favourable trade terms for the US.”The yen was slightly down on the dollar, with a rate hike largely priced in when the Bank of Japan ends its meeting Friday, with data showing another jump in inflation last month reinforcing expectations.The forecast increase to 0.5 percent would mark the highest level since 2008.”With no market turbulence after Trump’s inauguration,” conditions for the BoJ to hike its policy rate have been met, said Ko Nakayama, chief economist of Okasan Securities Research.”Raising just 25 basis points to 0.5 percent won’t cool the economy,” he said. Analysts are tipping the lift even as the economy struggles, but Moody’s Analytics said “the weak yen is a key reason”, along with a run of forecast-beating inflation prints.The yen has come under pressure against the dollar in recent months after the Fed dialled back its expectations for rate cuts this year and the concerns over Trump’s impact on inflation.The BoJ decision comes ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week, which will be closely watched for its views on the outlook under the new president.Oil prices extended Thursday’s losses after Trump’s call to Riyadh and OPEC, with a recent build in US stockpiles adding to the weakness.- Key figures around 0230 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.6 percent at 40,192.85 (break)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.7 percent at 20,032.67Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.2 percent at 3,237.43Dollar/yen: UP at 156.31 yen from 156.03 yen on ThursdayEuro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0413 from $1.0415Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2354 from $1.2352Euro/pound: DOWN at 84.30 pence from 84.31 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.4 percent at $74.34 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.4 percent at $77.99 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.9 percent at 44,565.07 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.2 percent at 8,565.20 (close)

Climate change cooks up Japanese ‘cabbage shock’

Japan’s much-loved “tonkatsu” pork cutlets come with a mound of freshly shredded cabbage, but a surge in the price of the humble vegetable has prompted chef Katsumi Shinagawa to skimp on servings.The culprit is a changing climate. Last year’s record summer heat and heavy rain ruined crops, driving up the cost of the leafy green in what media have dubbed a “cabbage shock”.It is the latest pain point for shoppers and eateries already squeezed by inflation, with energy bills up along with the price of staples from rice to flour and cooking oil.Shinagawa’s Tokyo restaurant Katsukichi offers free cabbage refills alongside its juicy, deep-fried cutlets — a common practice with tonkatsu, a national comfort food.But with cabbage now over three times more expensive than usual, according to the agriculture ministry, the restaurant has had to make each serving slightly smaller.”I was ready to cope when the price of flour started rising, but not cabbage,” Shinagawa told AFP, explaining that “tonkatsu and cabbage are like inseparable friends”.”Cabbages sold at supermarkets are now mind-blowingly expensive,” he added. “Half-sized ones used to be around 100 yen ($0.60) per head, but they are now like 400 yen.”It has become a hot topic on social media, with many users aghast after a head of cabbage was recently given an eye-popping price tag of 1,000 yen at a supermarket in the Hyogo region.”I never imagined cabbage would ever become so expensive that it’s basically a delicacy,” one user lamented on X.- Extreme heat -Climate change has made extreme weather more frequent and heatwaves more intense worldwide.Last year Japan sweltered through its joint hottest summer since records began, followed by its warmest autumn.”It was so hot that some cabbages were seared to death. The heat dehydrated them and made them wither,” said Morihisa Suzuki from a federation of agricultural cooperatives in Aichi, one of Japan’s largest cabbage-growing regions.Days of intense localised rain, then a prolonged dry period with little sunshine have made things worse.As a result, farmers in Aichi are grappling with yields an estimated 30 percent lower than usual, the groupsays.Neighbouring South Korea — where a different variety of cabbage is fermented to make the all-important side dish kimchi — has also suffered.Government data shows that in mid-January, cabbage prices soared 75 percent there compared to the same period last year.Shin Mi-ja, a shopkeeper in Seoul, told AFP that cabbage prices were high “because of the heatwave and heavy rains”.”Overall prices for vegetables have risen, so people don’t really want to buy” cabbage, even with the Lunar New Year holiday approaching, she said.- Inflation -In Japan, the heat has also made lettuce, green onion and “daikon” radish more expensive at the checkout.And rice prices are soaring after harvests were hit by high temperatures and water shortages.Official inflation data released Friday showed that the grain jumped a whopping 64.5 percent in December year-on-year.Overall consumer prices were up 3.6 percent, or 3.0 percent when adjusted for food prices. The Bank of Japan was expected to raise interest rates later Friday.Meanwhile bird flu outbreaks have created supply shortages for eggs, pushing up their price too.The weak yen as well as labour shortages and rising transport costs have also created a perfect storm for Japanese restaurants.Japan saw a record 894 restaurant bankruptcies last year due to inflation, the cheaper yen and the end of pandemic-era government subsidies, according to research firm Teikoku Databank.Teikoku expects price rises in 2025 for around 6,000 food items, from bread to beer and noodles.And convenience chain 7-Eleven said this week it would raise prices nationwide for onigiri rice balls, sushi and other rice-based items.Chef Shinagawa does not want to pass on the price increases to his customers, however.For now, “we’re persevering,” he said.

Trump Davos address lifts S&P 500 to record, dents oil prices

The S&P 500 finished at a fresh all-time record Thursday as US stocks shrugged off early weakness, welcoming President Donald Trump’s pledge to cut corporate taxes.In a much-anticipated video appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump pushed for lower interest rates and said he would cut taxes for companies investing in the United States while hiking tariffs on those who don’t.Trump also called for Saudi Arabia and OPEC to reduce oil prices, jolting crude prices lower.After opening in negative territory as US Treasury yields climbed, the broad-based S&P 500 finished up 0.5 percent at 6,118.71, a new record.Investors cheered Trump’s message on tax cuts, which the billionaire US leader held out as a “carrot” to attract investment as compared with the “stick” of tariffs, said Jack Ablin of Cresset Capital.”Certainly everyone understands the tariff message and now we’re hearing more about the tax incentives,” said Ablin.Ablin noted that Trump has not advanced a campaign proposal to hike tariffs on Chinese goods by 60 percent, evidence of some “moderation” in the returning president’s tone.Investors have largely welcomed the first few days of Trump 2.0. However, warnings that China, the European Union, Canada and Mexico could be hit by tariffs as soon as February 1 have given cause for concern.”Investors are still weighing Trump’s tariff talk, though history suggests his bark often echoes louder than his bite,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.Earlier, trading in Asia got a lift from Wednesday’s Wall Street rally that saw tech titans including Nvidia, Microsoft and Arm surge after Trump announced a new $500 billion venture to build infrastructure for artificial intelligence in the United States.Tokyo-listed SoftBank, named in the venture, extended the rally Thursday, piling on more than five percent and boosting Tokyo’s gains.Elsewhere, Chinese authorities unveiled measures to bolster the country’s stock markets, including allowing pension funds to invest in listed companies and pushing firms to increase share purchases.The moves provided some support with Shanghai’s stock market advancing, but Hong Kong gave up early gains to end lower.”Recent history would suggest Beijing will need to take more radical action if Chinese shares are to enjoy a sustained recovery,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.The yen edged up against the dollar ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision Friday, when many investors expect it to raise interest rates for the third time since March.”Economic data continues to support the BoJ’s case for a rate hike,” said Gregor Hirt at Allianz Global Investors, pointing to upward momentum in core consumer prices.In European equity trading, Frankfurt set a new record high and London set another closing record. Paris also rose. – Key figures around 2200 GMT -New York – Dow: UP 0.9 percent at 44,565.07 (close)New York – S&P 500: UP 0.5 percent at 6,118.71 (close)New York – Nasdaq Composite: UP 0.2 percent at 20,053.68 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.2 percent at 8,565.20 (close)Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.7 percent at 7,892.61 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.7 percent at 21,411.53 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.8 percent at 39,958.87 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.4 percent at 19,700.56 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,230.16 (close)Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0415 from $1.0409 on WednesdayPound/dollar: UP at $1.2352 from $1.2316Dollar/yen: DOWN at 156.03 yen from 156.53 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 84.31 pence from 84.51 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.1 percent at $74.62 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.9 percent at $78.29 per barrelburs-jmb/acb

Wall Street’s AI-fuelled rally falters, oil slumps

A tech-fuelled rally on Wall Street faltered on Thursday as concerns about interest rates and high stock valuations sapped investor confidence.Crude prices slumped after US President Donald Trump called on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to reduce oil prices.Wall Street has been on a tear over the past week, with the S&P 500 setting a record high Wednesday in the wake of a massive AI investment announcement by Trump.But the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped on Thursday and the S&P 500 edged higher without moving into record territory.”There is some natural hesitation today given how far the market has come in just seven trading sessions and tariff uncertainty lurking in the background,” said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare.Furthermore the yield on 10-year US Treasuries edged up on Thursday.Higher borrowing costs mean that companies, particularly tech firms, see their earnings compressed, with high stock prices compared to their earnings as a consequence.”The stretched earnings multiple is a headwind running into an earnings reporting period that has high expectations going into next week’s results from the likes of Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla and Apple,” O’Hare said.Investors have largely welcomed the first few days of Trump 2.0 as he held off immediately returning to the hardball trade policies of his first term.However, warnings that China, the European Union, Canada and Mexico could be hit by tariffs as soon as February 1 have given cause for concern.”Investors are still weighing Trump’s tariff talk, though history suggests his bark often echoes louder than his bite,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.Trump, addressing world business and political leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos by video link, told them to manufacture their products in the United States or face tariffs.He also urged Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil, sending global market prices for crude lower.Trump also demanded that US interest rates come down.Trading in Asia got a lift from Wednesday’s Wall Street rally that saw tech titans including Nvidia, Microsoft and ARM surge after Trump announced a new $500 billion venture to build infrastructure for artificial intelligence in the United States.Tokyo-listed SoftBank, named in the venture, extended the rally Thursday, piling on more than five percent and boosting Tokyo’s gains.Elsewhere, Chinese authorities unveiled measures to bolster the country’s stock markets, including allowing pension funds to invest in listed companies and pushing firms to increase share purchases.The measures provided some support with Shanghai’s stock market advancing, but Hong Kong gave up early gains to end lower.”Recent history would suggest Beijing will need to take more radical action if Chinese shares are to enjoy a sustained recovery,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.The yen edged up against the dollar ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision Friday, when many investors expect it to raise interest rates for the third time since March.”Economic data continues to support the BoJ’s case for a rate hike,” said Gregor Hirt at Allianz Global Investors, pointing to upward momentum in core consumer prices.In European equity trading, Frankfurt set a new record high and London set another closing record but short of its record. Paris also rose. – Key figures around 1630 GMT -New York – Dow: UP 0.5 percent at 44,391.70 pointsNew York – S&P 500: UP 0.2 percent at 6,096.57New York – Nasdaq Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 19,975.85London – FTSE 100: UP 0.2 percent at 8,565.20 (close)Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.7 percent at 7,892.61 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.7 percent at 21,411.53 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.8 percent at 39,958.87 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.4 percent at 19,700.56 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,230.16 (close)Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0412 from $1.0425 on WednesdayPound/dollar: UP at $1.2343 from $1.2313Dollar/yen: DOWN at 155.99 yen from 156.45 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 84.35 pence from 84.48 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.6 percent at $75.01 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.4 percent at $78.66 per barrelburs-rl/sbk

Wall Street’s AI-fuelled rally falters

A tech-fuelled rally on Wall Street faltered on Thursday as concerns about interest rates and high stock valuations sapped investor confidence.Wall Street has been on a tear over the past week, with the S&P 500 setting a record high in the wake of US president Donald Trump’s massive AI-investment announcement.But both the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell at the start of trading Thursday.”There is some natural hesitation today given how far the market has come in just seven trading sessions and tariff uncertainty lurking in the background,” said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare.Furthermore the yield on 10-year Treasuries edged up on Thursday.Higher borrowing costs means that companies, particularly tech firms, see their earnings compressed, and as a consequence their stock prices high compared to their earnings.”The stretched earnings multiple is a headwind running into an earnings reporting period that has high expectations going into next week’s results from the likes of Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla and Apple,” O’Hare said.Investors have largely welcomed the first few days of Trump 2.0 as he held off immediately returning to the hardball trade policies of his first term.However, warnings that China, the European Union, Canada and Mexico could be hit by tariffs as soon as February 1 have given cause for concern.”Investors are still weighing Trump’s tariff talk, though history suggests his bark often echoes louder than his bite,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.Trading in Asia got a lift from Wednesday’s Wall Street rally that saw tech titans including Nvidia, Microsoft and ARM surge after Trump announced a new $500 billion venture to build infrastructure for artificial intelligence in the United States.Tokyo-listed SoftBank, named in the venture, extended the rally Thursday, piling on more than five percent and boosting Tokyo’s gains.Elsewhere, Chinese authorities unveiled measures to bolster the country’s stock markets, including allowing pension funds to invest in listed companies and pushing firms to increase share purchases.The measures provided some support with Shanghai’s stock market advancing, but Hong Kong gave up early gains to end lower.”Recent history would suggest Beijing will need to take more radical action if Chinese shares are to enjoy a sustained recovery,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.The yen edged up against the dollar ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision Friday, when many investors expect it to raise interest rates for the third time since March.”Economic data continues to support the BoJ’s case for a rate hike,” said Gregor Hirt at Allianz Global Investors, pointing to upward momentum in core consumer prices.In European equity trading, Frankfurt set a new record high and London was just shy its all-time high. Paris also rose. – Key figures around 1430 GMT -New York – Dow: UP less than 0.1 percent at 44,181.03 pointsNew York – S&P 500: DOWN 0.1 percent at 6,077.70New York – Nasdaq Composite: DOWN 0.5 percent at 19,909.85London – FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 8,557.47Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.5 percent at 7,876.75Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.4 percent at 21,328.51Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.8 percent at 39,958.87 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.4 percent at 19,700.56 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,230.16 (close)Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0414 from $1.0425 on WednesdayPound/dollar: UP at $1.2324 from $1.2313Dollar/yen: DOWN at 156.36 yen from 156.45 yenEuro/pound: UP at 84.53 pence from 84.48 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP less than 0.1 percent at $75.48 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.1 percent at $79.09 per barrelburs-rl/js

Stocks mainly rise after Wall Street’s AI-fuelled rally

Global stock markets mostly rose Thursday following a tech-fuelled rally on Wall Street spurred by US president Donald Trump’s massive AI-investment announcement.Investors have largely welcomed the first few days of Trump 2.0 as he held off immediately returning to the hardball trade policies of his first term.However, warnings that China, the European Union, Canada and Mexico could be hit by tariffs as soon as February 1 have given cause for concern.”Investors are still weighing Trump’s tariff talk, though history suggests his bark often echoes louder than his bite,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.In Europe, London retreated from its record highs but Frankfurt pushed on with its winning streak and Paris also rose. Tech titans including Nvidia, Microsoft and ARM helped lead a surge in New York on Wednesday, after Trump announced a new $500 billion venture to build infrastructure for artificial intelligence in the United States.Tokyo-listed SoftBank, named in the venture, extended the rally Thursday, piling on more than five percent and boosting Tokyo’s gains.Elsewhere, Chinese authorities unveiled measures to bolster the country’s stock markets, including allowing pension funds to invest in listed companies and pushing firms to increase share purchases.The measures provided some support with Shanghai’s stock market advancing, but Hong Kong gave up early gains to end lower.”Recent history would suggest Beijing will need to take more radical action if Chinese shares are to enjoy a sustained recovery,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.Seoul shed more than one percent after South Korea’s central bank revealed weak economic growth data for the fourth quarter as the country was hit by the fallout from impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol’s brief declaration of martial law.The yen edged up against the dollar ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision Friday, when many investors expect it to raise interest rates for the third time since March.”Economic data continues to support the BoJ’s case for a rate hike,” said Gregor Hirt at Allianz Global Investors, pointing to upward momentum in core consumer prices.- Key figures around 1100 GMT -London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 8,539.00Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.3 percent at 7,861.18Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.3 percent at 21,317.70Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.8 percent at 39,958.87 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.4 percent at 19,700.56 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,230.16 (close)New York – Dow: UP 0.3 percent at 44,156.73 (close)Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0413 from $1.0425 on WednesdayPound/dollar: UP at $1.2320 from $1.2313Dollar/yen: DOWN at 156.40 yen from 156.45 yenEuro/pound: UP at 84.51 pence from 84.48 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.1 percent at $75.51 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.1 percent at $79.08 per barrel

Most Asian markets rise after Wall Street’s AI-fuelled rally

Asian equities mostly rose Thursday, cheered by another tech-fuelled run-up on Wall Street after Donald Trump’s huge AI investment announcement, as traders assessed the outlook for the next four years under the new president.Shanghai was among the main winners, eating into year-to-date losses after China unveiled a fresh batch of measures aimed at boosting the country’s stock markets as part of Beijing’s moves to provide support to the stuttering economy.Global investors have largely welcomed the first few days of Trump 2.0 as he held off immediately returning to the hardball trade policies of his first term, having pledged to impose stiff tariffs on key partners within hours of returning to the Oval Office.However, warnings that China, the European Union, Canada and Mexico could be hit as soon as February 1 have given cause for concern.Tech titans including Nvidia, Microsoft and Arm helped lead a surge in New York, pushing the S&P 500 to within a whisker of a record, after Trump announced a new $500-billion venture to build infrastructure for artificial intelligence in the United States.Tokyo-listed SoftBank was named in the venture along with cloud giant Oracle and ChatGPT-maker OpenAI and soared more than 10 percent on the news Wednesday. It extended the rally Thursday, piling more than five percent even after key Trump ally and world’s richest man Elon Musk cast doubt on the scheme and said the main investors “don’t actually have the money”.The advance in SoftBank helped Tokyo build on this week’s gains, while Singapore, Wellington, Manila, Mumbai and Jakarta also rose.Shanghai advanced after authorities unveiled measures to steady the market and unblock bottlenecks, including allowing pension funds to invest in listed companies and push firms to boost share purchases.However, Hong Kong gave up early gains to end lower while there were also losses in Sydney and Bangkok.Seoul shed more than one percent after South Korea’s central bank said the economy grew in the fourth quarter at its slowest pace of 2024 as the country was hit by the fallout from impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol’s brief declaration of martial law.It also expanded less than expected through the entire year as the political chaos hit consumer confidence.The dollar edged up against the yen ahead of the Bank of Japan’s Friday policy decision, with observers widely expecting it to hike interest rates for the third time since March.”Economic data continues to support the BoJ’s case for a rate hike,” said Gregor Hirt at Allianz Global Investors, pointing to upward momentum in core consumer prices.”Wage growth remains a crucial factor. While governor (Kazuo) Ueda previously indicated the need for ‘one more notch of information’ before hiking, deputy governor (Ryozo) Himino recently noted strong wage momentum in BoJ branch managers’ assessments.”This may encourage action before actual Shunto wage data becomes available in March,” he said, referring to annual wage negotiations with unions in the spring. “The yen’s renewed weakness adds pressure to act.”London dropped at the open after ending Wednesday at a record high, though Frankfurt hit a new peak and Paris also rose.- Key figures around 0815 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.8 percent at 39,958.87 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.4 percent at 19,700.56 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,230.16 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 8,536.05Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0400 from $1.0425 on WednesdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2300 from $1.2313Dollar/yen: UP at 156.52 yen from 156.45 yenEuro/pound: UP at 84.55 pence from 84.48 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.2 percent at $75.28 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.2 percent at $78.88 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.3 percent at 44,156.73 (close)

How things stand in China-US trade tensions with Trump 2.0

Donald Trump is back in the White House, promising to use the United States’s vast economic weight to hit back at China for its alleged unfair trade practices and role in the deadly American fentanyl crisis.This week, the mercurial magnate said 10 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports could kick in on February 1 — and on the campaign trail touted a levy as high as 60 percent.China has warned that there are “no winners” in a trade war and vowed to defend its economic interests.Here’s where the China-US trade relationship stands:- How much trade is at stake? -Trade between China and the United States — the world’s two largest economies — is vast, totalling more than $530 billion in the first eleven months of 2024, according to Washington.Over that same period, sales of Chinese goods to the United States totalled more than $400 billion, second only to Mexico.According to the Peterson Institute of International Economics (PIIE), China is the dominant supplier of goods from electronics and electrical machinery, to textiles and clothing. But a yawning trade imbalance — $270.4 billion for January to November last year — has long raised hackles in Washington.As has China’s vast state support for its industry, sparking accusations of dumping, as well as its perceived mistreatment of US firms operating in its territory.But China’s economy remains heavily reliant on exports to drive growth despite official efforts to raise domestic consumption — making its leaders reluctant to change the status quo.- What happened during Trump’s first term? -Trump stormed into the White House in 2016 vowing to get even with China, launching a trade war that slapped significant tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods.China responded with retaliatory tariffs on American products — particularly affecting US farmers.Key US demands were greater access to China’s markets, broad reform of a business playing field that heavily favours Chinese firms, and a loosening of heavy state control by Beijing.After long, fraught negotiations the two sides agreed what became known as the “phase one” trade deal — a ceasefire in the nearly two-year-old trade war.Under that agreement, Beijing agreed to import $200 billion worth of US goods, including $32 billion in farm products and seafood.But in the face of the pandemic and a US recession, analysts say Beijing fell well short of that commitment.”In the end, China bought only 58 percent of the US exports it had committed to purchase under the agreement, not even enough to reach its import levels from before the trade war,” PIIE’S Chad P Brown wrote.”Put differently, China bought none of the additional $200 billion of exports Trump’s deal had promised.”- How did things change under Biden? -Trump’s successor Joe Biden did not roll back increases imposed by his predecessor, but took a more targeted approach when it came to tariff hikes.Under Biden, Washington expanded efforts to curb exports of state-of-the-art chips to China — part of a broader effort to prevent sensitive US technologies being used in Beijing’s military arsenal. His administration has also used tariffs to take aim at what it called China’s “industrial overcapacity” — fears the country’s industrial subsidies for green energy, cars and batteries could flood global markets with cheap goods.Last May, Biden ordered $18 billion worth of imports from China be slapped with tariffs, accusing Beijing of “cheating” rather than competing.Under the hikes, tariffs on EVs quadrupled to 100 percent, while the tariff for semiconductors will surge from 25 percent to 50 percent.The measures also targeted strategic sectors such as batteries, critical minerals and medical products.Both sides have also launched investigations into the others’ alleged unfair trade practices with probes into dumping and state subsidies.- What happens next? – With Biden gone, all eyes are on whether Trump will follow through on these threats — or if the rhetoric was an opening gambit in negotiations. Trump has long viewed tariffs as a bargaining tool — an “all-purpose bludgeon”, according to a Wall Street Journal editorial.He has also tied tariffs to the fate of Chinese-owned social media app TikTok — warning of retaliation if a deal cannot be struck to sell it. Many breathed a sigh of relief when a “shock and awe” blitz of executive orders signed on Trump’s first day in office did not feature tariffs on Chinese goods. But Trump did order a sweeping review by top officials into a number of Chinese trade practices — with reports due by April 1.”Although no immediate tariff hike is an upside surprise, extended uncertainty may still weigh on confidence,” HSBC economists wrote in a note Wednesday.”That said, the lack of concrete tariffs at this juncture may suggest that Trump is open to further negotiations with China,” they added.

Political crisis hits South Korea growth: central bank

South Korea’s economy grew less than expected in the fourth quarter, data showed Thursday, as it was hit by the fallout from President Yoon Suk Yeol’s brief declaration of martial law that hit consumer confidence and domestic demand.The ongoing political crisis comes as leaders of the export-reliant country prepare for the second US presidency of Donald Trump, who has warned key trading partners that he will hit them with painful tariffs.The brief declaration of martial law on December 3 by South Korea’s now-impeached leader jolted Asia’s fourth-biggest economy, which the central bank said expanded 0.1 percent on-quarter in October-December and 1.2 percent on-year.For the full year, the economy grew two percent, which was an improvement on 2023 but 0.2 percentage points below forecasts.The Bank of Korea earlier this week warned that the martial law declaration and December 29 Jeju Air plane crash that killed 179 had “significantly dampened economic sentiment”.In that forecast it also revised its 2025 growth forecast down to 1.6-1.7 percent from an earlier projection of 1.9 percent.”Korea’s economy continued to struggle in Q4 and we suspect that the weakness in activity could persist in the near term due to the ongoing political crisis,” said Shivaan Tandon at Capital Economics.”Domestic demand remains the main source of the weakness in the economy,” he said in a note, pointing to slowing growth in consumer spending. “The weakness of consumption in Q4 is in line with the latest consumer confidence and labour market data and suggests that perhaps the ongoing political crisis has already started to weigh on growth,” he added.- Growing tariff fears -Yoon’s brief suspension of civilian rule sw him deploy soldiers to parliament but lawmakers voted the measure down and later impeached him. He is now being held for a criminal probe on insurrection charges and also faces impeachment hearings.Soon after the crisis erupted consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic. Even after the impeachment, the won plunged against the dollar and the country’s unemployment rate recently spiked to its highest level since 2021.”The anaemic growth in South Korea’s GDP in the fourth quarter shows that the political crisis sparked by (Yoon’s) failed martial law attempt is hitting the economy more than the Bank of Korea anticipated,” Bloomberg economist Hyosung Kwon wrote. “That leaves the door open for the central bank to resume cutting rates at its February meeting.” The figures come after the government this week unveiled a $250 billion support package for exporters amid growing concern over possible tariffs from the Trump administration.South Korea, heavily dependent on exports and driven by key industries such as advanced chips produced by conglomerates Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, saw exports rise 6.9 percent on-year in 2024.The volume of imports also recorded an annual increase of 2.4 percent.Meanwhile, SK hynix posted on Thursday reported record sales in the fourth quarter, marking a 75 percent surge on-year to 19.7 trillion won ($13.7 billion) thanks to its strong performance in churning out highly advanced chips used in artificial intelligence. SK has been supplying US titan Nvidia with its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, which are used for in the highly competitive AI sector.SK said the strong numbers demonstrated the “possibility of stable profit gain by supplying product in right time to meet customers’ needs”, it said in a press release.