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Inflation, hotel prices curtail Japanese ‘Golden Week’ travels

Japan’s annual “Golden Week” holiday period gets into full swing Saturday, but inflation and hotel prices sent soaring by record inbound tourism have left domestic travellers less eager to pack their bags.Traditionally, Golden Week — which includes three consecutive public holidays — gives Japanese workers one of their longest breaks in the year, with many taking the opportunity to see other parts of Japan or to travel abroad. But this year consumers in the world’s fourth-largest economy are feeling the pain of rising prices for everything from cabbage and rice to electricity bills. The Japanese yen has lost around a third of its value since 2022, one factor behind the record number of foreign tourists also lured by the country’s numerous attractions from Mount Fuji’s majestic slopes to shrines and sushi bars. The inflow of tourists has sent demand for hotel bookings spiralling upward, with the room rate in Japan’s five major cities around 16 percent more expensive at the onset of this year’s Golden Week than last year, according to a survey from the business daily Nikkei.All this has translated into a tepid desire among Japanese residents to travel for this year’s Golden Week, surveys have shown. The latter part of the holiday period began Saturday and lasts until Tuesday.”The biggest reason seems to be the inflation that has curtailed their willingness to spend lavishly”, Atsushi Tanaka, a tourism studies professor at Yamanashi University, told AFP.”Because the inbound tourism is booming so much, hotel operators don’t need to lower their accommodation prices, which is making it harder for Japanese people to travel,” Tanaka added.- ‘Financial burdens’ -A poll by major travel agency JTB showed last month that 20.9 percent of its respondents will or “probably” will go on a trip during Golden Week, down 5.6 percent from last year.Another survey by marketing research firm Intage similarly found last month that the percentage of those planning to travel domestically during the holiday period dipped by two percent from a year earlier to 13.6 percent.While factors like a desire to avoid crowds are also at play, “the tendency to refrain from going out due to financial burdens” seems to be growing, Intage said.  When it comes to travelling abroad, that is verging on being an “unattainable luxury”, it said.  The same study, however, showed the average budget for Golden Week outings this year has edged up to $201 from $192, underscoring holidaymakers’ acceptance of the status quo.  “It shows they are resigned to the fact that it just costs them more this year to do anything,” Intage’s Motohiro Shimogawara told AFP. Japan logged more than 36.8 million tourist arrivals in 2024, topping 2019’s record of nearly 32 million. The government has set an ambitious target of almost doubling tourist numbers to 60 million annually by 2030.But as in other global tourist magnets like Venice in Italy, there has been growing pushback from residents against overtourism.  Residents and authorities in Japanese tourist hotspots, from tradition-steeped Kyoto to towns near the majestic Mount Fuji, are increasingly voicing frustration about overcrowding, traffic violations and bad behaviour by some visitors. 

Australians vote in election swayed by inflation, Trump

Millions of Australians voted Saturday in a bitterly contested general election, following a campaign shaped by living costs, climate anxiety and US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.From dusty desert towns to sun-splashed harbour cities, voters are choosing between left-leaning incumbent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and conservative challenger Peter Dutton.The almost universal consensus across a slew of opinion polls leading up to election day was that Albanese’s governing Labor Party would win a second term. “The holy grail is back-to-back wins that we’re aiming for today,” Albanese told Channel Seven. “I’ll leave nothing on the field over the next three years if I’m re-elected as Australia’s prime minister.”Though trailing by a few percentage points in the polls, Dutton said “quiet Australians” could yet deliver a surprise.”I think they’re going to go into the polling booth and say: ‘You know what? I am not going to reward Anthony Albanese for the last three years’,” he told Channel Nine.Asked if he would remain opposition leader if he loses, Dutton said he was only talking about winning, but added: “I am 54. I am still very young, and I’ve just got a burning passion for this country.”- Trump slump -The first polls opened at 8:00 am (2200 GMT) on Australia’s east coast, followed later by the country’s western cities and far-flung island territories.A total of 18.1 million voters have enrolled for the election. More than a third of them have cast an early ballot, the election authority said.Voting is compulsory, enforced with fines of Aus$20 (US$13), leading to turnouts that top 90 percent.A result could come as soon as Saturday night, unless the vote is very tight.Albanese, 62, has promised to embrace renewable energy, tackle a worsening housing crisis, and pour money into a creaking healthcare system. Liberal Party leader and former police officer Dutton wants to slash immigration, crack down on crime and ditch a longstanding ban on nuclear power. Some polls showed Dutton leaking support because of Trump, who he praised this year as a “big thinker” with “gravitas” on the global stage. “I mean, Donald Trump is as mad as a cut snake, and we all know that,” said voter Alan Whitman, 59, before casting his ballot on Saturday. “And we’ve got to tiptoe around that.”- High prices -As Australians soured on Trump, both Dutton and Albanese took on a more pugnacious tone. “If I needed to have a fight with Donald Trump or any other world leader, to advance our nation’s interest, I’d do it in a heartbeat,” Dutton said in April. Albanese condemned Trump’s tariffs as an act of “economic self-harm” and “not the act of a friend”.Economic concerns have dominated the contest for the many Australian households struggling to pay inflated prices for milk, bread, power and petrol. “The cost of living — it’s extremely high at the moment. So, taxes as well, is also another really big thing. Petrol prices, all the basic stuff,” human resources manager Robyn Knox told AFP in Brisbane.Small business owner Jared Bell had similar concerns.”Our grocery shops are definitely way more expensive than they were a couple years ago,” he said.- Campaign stumbles -Coal-mining superpower Australia will choose between two leaders with sharply contrasting ideas on climate change and emissions reduction. Albanese’s government has embraced the global push towards decarbonisation, warning of a future in which iron ore and polluting coal exports no longer prop up the economy.Dutton’s signature policy is a US$200 billion scheme to construct seven industrial-scale nuclear reactors, doing away with the need to ramp up renewables.The 36-day campaign was a largely staid affair but there were a few moments of unscripted levity.Albanese tumbled backwards off the stage at a heaving campaign rally, while Dutton drew blood when he hit an unsuspecting cameraman in the head with a stray football.It remains to be seen whether Albanese or Dutton will command an outright majority, or whether they are forced to cobble together a coalition with the support of minor parties.Polls have suggested 10 or more unaligned crossbenchers could hold the balance of power — making a rare minority government a distinct possibility.

Polls open in Australian vote swayed by inflation, Trump

Australians began voting Saturday in a bitterly contested general election, deciding a contest shaped by living costs, climate anxiety and US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.From dusty desert towns to sun-splashed harbour cities, millions of Australians will choose between left-leaning incumbent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and conservative challenger Peter Dutton.The almost universal consensus across a slew of opinion polls leading up to election day was that Albanese’s governing Labor Party would win a second term. “I’ll leave nothing on the field over the next three years if I’m re-elected as Australia’s prime minister,” Albanese told Channel Seven on Saturday morning. “I’m hopeful that we receive a majority government today so that we can build on the foundations that we’ve laid. Australia has turned the corner.”The first polls opened at 8:00 am (2200 GMT) on Australia’s east coast, to be followed later by the country’s western cities and far-flung island territories.A total of 18.1 million voters have enrolled for the election. More than a third of them have cast an early ballot, the election authority said.Voting is compulsory, enforced with fines of Aus$20 (US$13), leading to turnouts that top 90 percent.A result could come as soon as Saturday night, unless the vote is very tight.Albanese, 62, has promised to embrace renewable energy, tackle a worsening housing crisis, and pour money into a creaking healthcare system. – Trump slump -Liberal Party leader and former police officer Dutton, 54, wants to slash immigration, crack down on crime and ditch a longstanding ban on nuclear power. Some polls showed Dutton leaking support because of US President Trump, who he praised this year as a “big thinker” with “gravitas” on the global stage. “I mean, Donald Trump is as mad as a cut snake, and we all know that,” said voter Alan Whitman, 59, before casting his ballot on Saturday. “And we’ve got to tiptoe around that.”As Australians soured on Trump, both Dutton and Albanese took on a more pugnacious tone. “If I needed to have a fight with Donald Trump or any other world leader, to advance our nation’s interest, I’d do it in a heartbeat,” Dutton said in April. Albanese condemned Trump’s tariffs as an act of “economic self-harm” and “not the act of a friend”.Economic concerns have dominated the contest for the many Australian households struggling to pay inflated prices for milk, bread, power and petrol. “The cost of living — it’s extremely high at the moment. So, taxes as well, is also another really big thing. Petrol prices, all the basic stuff,” human resources manager Robyn Knox told AFP in Brisbane.Small business owner Jared Bell had similar concerns.”Our grocery shops are definitely way more expensive than they were a couple years ago,” he said.- Campaign stumbles -Both Albanese and Dutton tried to tout themselves as men of the people but were stumped when asked the price of eggs in a nationally televised debate. Coal-mining superpower Australia will choose between two leaders with sharply contrasting ideas on climate change and emissions reduction. Albanese’s government has embraced the global push towards decarbonisation, warning of a future in which iron ore and polluting coal exports no longer prop up the economy.Dutton’s signature policy is a US$200 billion scheme to construct seven industrial-scale nuclear reactors, doing away with the need to ramp up renewables.The 36-day campaign was a largely staid affair but there were a few moments of unscripted levity.Albanese tumbled backwards off the stage at a heaving campaign rally, while Dutton drew blood when he hit an unsuspecting cameraman in the head with a stray football.It remains to be seen whether Albanese or Dutton will command an outright majority, or whether they are forced to cobble together a coalition with the support of minor parties.Growing disenchantment among voters has emboldened independents pushing for greater transparency and climate progress.Polls have suggested 10 or more unaligned crossbenchers could hold the balance of power — making a rare minority government a distinct possibility.

Stocks gain on US jobs data, tariff talks hopes

Global stock markets rose on Friday following a solid US jobs report as investors greeted positive signs on the US-China trade war. Data showed that US hiring slowed much less than expected last month, with the world’s largest economy adding 177,000 jobs.European equities and US stocks both jumped following the release of the data. The broad-based S&P 500 finished at 5,686.67, up 1.4 percent for the day and 2.9 percent for the week.”The April jobs report may reassure investors that the labor market is holding up, giving them more confidence that the economy can hold up too,” said Bret Kenwell, analyst at trading platform eToro.Tom Cahill of Ventura Wealth Management described Friday’s job report as corroborating most of the data earlier in a week jammed with key economic indicators. Despite a disappointing GDP report, US consumption data was solid while inflation data was benign.”The news this week was on the bullish side when you add it all up,” Cahill said.Meanwhile, China’s commerce ministry on Friday said it was evaluating a US offer for negotiations on tariffs, but insisted Washington must be ready to scrap levies that have roiled global markets and supply chains.President Donald Trump’s levies reached 145 percent on many Chinese products in April, while Beijing has responded with fresh 125-percent duties on imports from the United States.Trump has repeatedly claimed that China has reached out for talks on the tariffs, and this week said he believed there was a “very good chance we’re going to make a deal”.Deutsche Bank managing director Jim Reid said the Chinese statement “is outweighing concerns about the effect of tariffs, which were initially triggered by disappointing earnings from Apple and Amazon.”US tech giants Apple and Amazon both reported disappointing outlooks, as tariffs knock business confidence, after markets closed on Thursday.In Europe, Paris and Frankfurt rose over two percent as markets brushed off official data showing eurozone inflation remained unchanged at slightly above the European Central Bank’s two-percent target.London also gained ground, with mining and commodity stocks — sensitive to Chinese demand — performing particularly well amid optimism for potential China-US talks, according to analysts.In Asia on Friday, Hong Kong was up more than 1.7 percent at the close, while Tokyo rose one percent.Japan’s envoy for US tariff talks said in Washington on Thursday that a second round of negotiations between the two countries had been “frank and constructive.”The Bank of Japan warned earlier that tariffs were fuelling global economic uncertainty and lowered its growth forecasts while keeping its key interest rate steady.- Key figures at around 2040 GMT -New York – Dow: UP 1.4 percent at 41,317.43 (close)New York – S&P 500: UP 1.5 percent at 5,686.67 (close)New York – Nasdaq Composite: UP 1.5 percent at 17,977.73 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 1.2 percent at 8,596.35 (close)Paris – CAC 40: UP 2.3 percent at 7,770.48 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: UP 2.6 percent at 23,086.65 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.0 percent at 36,830.69 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.7 percent at 22,504.68 (close)Shanghai – Composite: closed for holidayEuro/dollar: UP at $1.1299 from $1.1290 on ThursdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3268 from $1.3278Dollar/yen: DOWN at 144.97 yen from 145.39 yenEuro/pound: UP at 85.14 pence from 85.04 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.6 percent at $58.29 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 1.4 percent at $61.29 per barrelburs-jmb/dw

US ends duty-free shipping loophole for low-cost goods from China

The United States on Friday ended a tariff exemption for goods shipped from China worth less than $800, dealing a major blow to popular e-commerce sites such as Shein and Temu, whose cheap items consumers have come to rely on.The decision was announced last month, with the White House calling it a “critical step in countering the ongoing health emergency posed by the illicit flow of synthetic opioids” from China to the United States.Starting on Friday, goods shipped commercially will now be subject to new tariffs of 145 percent — the current level of levies imposed on goods coming from China.Items sent through the US Postal Service will be hit with duties of 120 percent of their value, or a $100, which will increase to $200 next month. The elimination of the ‘de minimis’ exemption now subjects even low-value imports to tariffs,” EY chief economist Gregory Daco wrote in a recent note to clients, adding it would squeeze “already-thin margins and driving up end prices.”The measures mark the latest salvo in a burgeoning trade war between the United States and China — the world’s two largest economies.The White House has also slapped additional levies of 25 percent on several sectors including automobiles, steel and aluminum from China.Beijing retaliated with sweeping 125 percent levies on US imports. Most other US trading partners face a baseline tariff of 10 percent, except for Mexico and Canada which face a higher 25 percent tariff on goods not covered by a current North America free-trade deal. The move threatens to hammer the business model of several large firms that ship cheap goods from China — including fast-fashion titans Shein and Temu.However, Chinese e-commerce sites listed on the New York Stock Exchange were largely in the green on Friday, most likely reflecting optimism about trade negotiations between Beijing and Washington, and the fact that many of these changes were already priced into the financial markets.At around 14:40 GMT, PDD, owner of Temu, was up 3.7 percent, while Alibaba was up around 4.0 percent.The Financial Times reported earlier this week that Shein was postponing a long-standing plan to list on public stock markets in London due to the looming de minimis changes.Trump first floated cancelling the exemption in February before backtracking after the move caused logistical disruptions.At the time, Beijing accused the United States of “politicizing trade and economic issues and using them as tools.”burs-da/des

Renewables sceptic Peter Dutton aims for Australian PM’s job

Former policeman Peter Dutton, the rival for the Australian prime minister’s job in Saturday’s election, is a self-professed sceptic of the rush to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy. The 54-year-old leader of the conservative Liberal Party has attacked centre-left Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s “weak leadership” at a time of rising prices.Dutton — the son of a bricklayer and himself a former Queensland drug squad detective — accuses the government of mismanaging the economy, being weak on defence, and backing a “divisive”, failed referendum on Indigenous peoples’ rights.But one of his starkest policy disagreements with the government is over how to tackle climate change.He has criticised the scale of Albanese’s plans to boost solar and wind-driven electricity to slash Australia’s carbon emissions.Dutton wants to ramp up gas production and overturn a quarter-century ban on nuclear power with a US$200 billion scheme to construct seven industrial-scale nuclear reactors.”The renewables-only energy policy is a wrecking ball through the economy and it’s driving up the cost of food, the cost of everything when you go to the supermarket,” he said this week.Dutton — who has run defence and home affairs in previous conservative administrations — had to apologise in 2015 after a quip about the threat climate change poses to the Pacific was picked up by a microphone.”Time doesn’t mean anything when you’re about to be, you know, have water lapping at your door,” Dutton was caught saying.It is not the only time his rhetoric has caused controversy.- ‘Gang violence’ -In 2018, Dutton claimed people in Melbourne were “scared to go out to restaurants” because of “African gang violence”.As immigration minister for nearly four years from 2017, Dutton oversaw the country’s widely criticised offshore detention regime.After being chosen as opposition leader in 2022, Dutton expressed regret for boycotting a 2008 national apology to Aboriginal Australians forcibly separated from their families as children.At the time he had failed to grasp the “symbolic significance”, he said.US President Donald Trump — who Dutton raised earlier this year as a “big thinker” with “gravitas” on the global stage — became a surprise challenge to his campaign.Some polls suggested Dutton’s polling took a hit after Trump slapped 10-percent trade tariffs on Australia.The opposition leader reassured voters he would stand up for Australia. “If I needed to have a fight with Donald Trump or any other world leader, to advance our nation’s interest, I’d do it in a heartbeat,” he said.Dutton — the married father of three adult children, Rebecca, Harry and Tom — speaks with pride of his blue-collar roots.”I was born into an outer suburbs working-class family — mum and dad, a secretary and bricklayer, didn’t have much money, but they worked every day of their life,” he told party members.Dutton said he worked after school delivering papers, mowing lawns and working in a butcher’s shop.Saving enough money to buy a house at the age of 19 was “one of my proudest achievements”.

Stock markets gain as China mulls US tariff talks

European and Asian markets rose on Friday, tracking Wall Street gains, as China said it was considering a US offer to negotiate steep tariffs.US markets had forged higher Thursday following strong results from tech giants Microsoft and Meta that helped offset lingering economic worries.”Equity markets are largely rising this morning boosted by the positive overnight performance on Wall Street amid China’s openness to trade negotiations,” said Deutsche Bank managing director Jim Reid. “This is outweighing concerns about the effect of tariffs, which were initially triggered by disappointing earnings from Apple and Amazon,” he added.US giants Apple and Amazon both reported disappointing outlooks, as tariffs knock business confidence, after markets closed on Thursday.In Europe, Paris and Frankfurt rose over one percent after the public holiday, as markets brushed off official data showing eurozone inflation remained unchanged at slightly above the European Central Bank’s two-percent target.London also gained, with mining and commodity stocks — sensitive to Chinese demand — performing particularly well amid optimism for potential China-US talks, according to analysts.China’s commerce ministry on Friday said it was evaluating a US offer for negotiations on tariffs, but insisted Washington must be ready to scrap levies that have roiled global markets and supply chains.President Donald Trump’s levies reached 145 percent on many Chinese products in April, while Beijing has responded with fresh 125 percent duties on imports from the United States.Trump has repeatedly claimed that China has reached out for talks on the tariffs, and this week said he believed there was a “very good chance we’re going to make a deal”.Dozens of countries face a 90-day deadline expiring in July to strike an agreement with Washington and avoid higher, country-specific rates.For further signs of the impact of the trade war on the economy, traders are awaiting Friday’s US jobs data for April. The closely-watched indictor will also be pored over for indications of the US central bank’s path for interest rates.In Asia on Friday, Hong Kong was up more than 1.7 percent at the close, while Tokyo rose one percent.Mainland Chinese markets were closed for a holiday.Japan’s envoy for US tariff talks said in Washington on Thursday that a second round of negotiations between the two countries had been “frank and constructive”.The Bank of Japan warned earlier that tariffs were fuelling global economic uncertainty and revised down its growth forecasts while keeping its key interest rate steady.In company news, oil majors ExxonMobil and Shell reported lower profit on weaker crude prices. But Shell managed to be one of the biggest risers in London on Friday as it pushed ahead with shareholder returns.- Key figures at around 1100 GMT -London – FTSE 100: UP 0.7 percent at 8,559.50 pointsParis – CAC 40: UP 1.6 percent at 7,713.90Frankfurt – DAX: UP 1.7 percent at 22,872.80Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.0 percent at 36,830.69 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.7 percent at 22,504.68 (close)Shanghai – Composite: closed for holidayNew York – Dow: UP 0.2 percent at 40,752.96 (close)Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1333 from $1.1289 on ThursdayPound/dollar: UP at $1.3292 from $1.3277Dollar/yen: DOWN at 144.67 yen from 145.44 yenEuro/pound: UP at 85.26 pence from 85.02 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.6 percent at $58.90 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.5 percent at $61.83 per barrelburs-ajb/rl

Hong Kong posts 3.1% growth, warns of trade war ‘risk’

Hong Kong’s economy grew by 3.1 percent in the first quarter of the year, the city’s government said Friday, though it warned US tariffs had heightened “downside risks” in the global economy.US President Donald Trump’s stinging tariffs of 145 percent on many Chinese products came into force last month.Beijing has responded with fresh 125 percent levies on American imports.Hong Kong, a special administrative region in China with its own trade policies, has not followed Beijing’s lead in imposing retaliatory tariffs.Officials said Friday the city’s economy had “expanded solidly” this year, buoyed by the mainland’s growth and an increase in exports and arrivals in the first quarter.”According to the advance estimates, real GDP grew by 3.1 percent over a year earlier, picking up from the 2.5 percent growth in the preceding quarter,” a government spokesperson said.The growth was higher than the 2.1 percent expected by economists polled by Bloomberg.But officials warned that with the sharp increase in global tensions “the downside risks surrounding the global economy have heightened visibly”.”The extremely high levels of trade policy uncertainty will dampen international trade flows and investment sentiment, which in turn overshadow the near-term outlook for the Hong Kong economy,” a spokesperson said.But economic activities in the city will be bolstered by the local government’s pro-growth measures and “sustained steady growth of the Mainland (Chinese) economy”, they added.Friday’s preliminary figures showed an 8.7 percent growth in exports of goods, which authorities attributed to “sustained external demand”.Private consumption decreased 1.2 percent year-on-year — reflecting the lingering impact of changes in residents’ consumption patterns.Authorities have set a growth goal of two to three percent for the city this year.But Paul Chan, the city’s finance chief, in April urged vigilance in the face of a “tense external environment”.”The US’ bullying acts and unilateralism will continue to weigh on the global economic outlook,” he wrote.

Where things stand in the US-China trade war

China has said it has received overtures from the United States for talks on tariffs — but warned it will need concessions as proof of “sincerity” before any negotiations can take place.The world’s two largest economies are locked in a tit-for-tat tariff war that threatens hundreds of billions in trade and has roiled global markets and supply chains.AFP looks at how the trade war between China and the United States is playing out:- What steps have the two sides taken so far? -The United States has raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145 percent, with cumulative duties on some goods reaching a staggering 245 percent.As well as the blanket levies, China is also under sector-specific tariffs on steel, aluminium and car imports.Sales of Chinese goods to the US last year totalled more than $500 billion — 16.4 percent of the country’s exports, according to Beijing’s customs data.China has vowed to fight the measures “to the end” and has unveiled reciprocal tariffs of up to 125 percent on imports of American goods, which totalled $143.5 billion last year, according to Washington.Beijing has filed complaints with the World Trade Organization (WTO), citing “bullying” tactics by the Trump administration.And it has gone after American companies, scrapping orders for Boeing planes, probing Google for “anti-monopoly” violations and adding US fashion group PVH Corp. — which owns Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein — and biotech giant Illumina to a list of “unreliable entities”.Beijing has also restricted exports of rare earth elements — critical in the manufacturing of everything from semiconductors to medical technology and consumer electronics.- What’s been the impact so far? – Beijing has long drawn Trump’s ire with a trade surplus with the United States that reached $295.4 billion last year, according to the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.Chinese leaders have been reluctant to disrupt the status quo.But an intensified trade war will likely mean China cannot peg its hopes for strong economic growth this year on its exports, which reached record highs in 2024.US duties further threaten to harm China’s fragile post-Covid economic recovery as it struggles with a debt crisis in the property sector and persistently low consumption.The tariff war is already having an impact in the United States, with uncertainty triggering a manufacturing slump last month and officials blaming it for an unexpected slump in GDP in the first three months of the year.”The cost on the US economy and livelihood is beginning to surface,” Mei Xinyu, an economist at the state-affiliated Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told AFP.”They are starting to truly feel the cost and impact of pursuing trade hegemony with China,” he said.The head of the WTO said in April that the US-China tariff war could cut trade in goods between the two countries by 80 percent.Analysts expect the levies to take a significant chunk out of China’s GDP, which Beijing’s leadership hope will grow five percent this year.Likely to be hit hardest are China’s top exports to the United States — everything from electronics and machinery to textiles and clothing, according to the Peterson Institute of International Economics.And because of the crucial role Chinese goods play in supplying US firms, the tariffs may also hurt American manufacturers and consumers, analysts have warned.- Are talks likely? -US President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that China has reached out for talks on the tariffs. But Friday’s statement by Beijing suggested it was Washington that’s been reaching out. While China’s commerce ministry said it was “evaluating” the offer, it warned it would need concessions from Washington — namely the lifting of tariffs — before talks could go ahead.”Tariffs cannot be used as a bargaining chip to pressure China. China cannot make any concessions on the tariff issue,” Wang Wen, Dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, told AFP.Analysts in China broadly agreed that pressure on the US economy was driving Washington’s call for talks.”The fact that the US is repeatedly saying it is talking with China proves that the US itself has taken a big hit from the trade war,” Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Beijing’s Renmin University of China, said.”China is certainly willing (to negotiate), and so is evaluating and observing the US side’s sincerity — is it all just bluff and bluster… or is it actually something real that could yield plans for serious talks?”

China says open to US trade talks offer but wants tariffs scrapped

China said Friday it is evaluating a US offer for negotiations on tariffs but insisted Washington must be ready to scrap levies that have roiled global markets and supply chains before talks can begin.Punishing US tariffs that have reached 145 percent on many Chinese products came into force in April while Beijing has responded with fresh 125 percent duties on imports from the United States.High-end tech goods such as smartphones, semiconductors and computers have received a temporary reprieve from US tariffs.US President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that China has reached out for talks on the tariffs, and this week said he believed there was a “very good chance we’re going to make a deal”.Beijing’s commerce ministry on Friday said that it was the US that had reached out and that it was “currently evaluating” the offer. But, it said, any talks would first require concessions from the US side.”If the US wants to talk, it should show its sincerity to do so, be prepared to correct its wrong practices and cancel unilateral tariffs,” the ministry said.”In any possible dialogue or talks, if the US side does not correct its wrong unilateral tariff measures, it just means the US side is completely insincere and will further damage the mutual trust between the two sides,” it added.”Saying one thing and doing another, or even attempting coercion and blackmail under the guise of talks will not work,” the commerce ministry said.Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Shanghai’s Fudan University, said that Beijing would likely play hardball.”Of course the US hopes to start negotiations as soon as possible, but our attitude is: ‘you must first take some action to show sincerity’,” Wu told AFP.Once the US revokes tariffs on China, “we can discuss our legitimate concerns”, such as Washington’s worries about unbalanced bilateral trade and Beijing’s gripes over US efforts to “suppress” its technological development, he said.Dozens of countries face a 90-day deadline expiring in July to strike an agreement with Washington and avoid higher, country-specific rates.Beijing, in contrast, has vowed to fight a trade war to the bitter end if needed, with a video posted on social media this week by its foreign ministry vowing to “never kneel down!”.”China’s position has always been perfectly consistent,” the commerce ministry said Friday.”If it’s fight, we will fight to the end; if it’s talk, the door is wide open. The tariff war and trade war were unilaterally initiated by the US side.”- ‘Olive branch’ -China has acknowledged global economic vicissitudes have strained its economy, long dependent on exports, with officials admitting that foreign-facing firms are facing difficulties.Data this week showed factory activity shrank in April, with Beijing blaming a “sharp shift” in the global economy.And on Wednesday data showed the US economy unexpectedly contracted in the first three months of the year Donald Trump’s tariff plans triggered an import surge.The United States also ended tariff exemptions on Friday for goods shipped from China worth less than $800, a move which could have significant ramifications on consumers’ purchasing habits.Ja-Ian Chong of the National University of Singapore said it remained unclear whether any progress can be made, despite the mounting economic need for both sides to make a deal.”Neither side wishes to look weak,” he said.Analyst Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management said Beijing’s latest comments represented the “first olive branch” in the gruelling trade war.”On paper, both capitals are waving detente flags,” he wrote in a note.”But dig a layer deeper, and the path is still littered with landmines,” he said.”China’s pledge to fight ‘to the end’ wasn’t retired — just shoved behind softer soundbites — and the ‘cancel duties first’ stick remains a non-starter for the White House.”