Afp Business Asia

Stocks torn between Fed rate warning, AI optimism

Europe’s main stock markets retreated Wednesday following gains in Asia and Wall Street losses, with focus on shares in technology giants and a warning from US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell on interest rates.Chinese tech firms stood out, with Alibaba shares rocketing after its chief executive said the e-commerce giant planned to ramp up spending on artificial intelligence.Investors have enjoyed a months-long rally for equities that has pushed some markets to record highs, but the run-up took a pause Tuesday amid talk that the gains may have gone too far.Another key driver has been expectations that the Fed will continue to cut US interest rates before the end of the year.However, Powell cooled expectations with a warning Tuesday that cutting rates too aggressively risked stoking inflation.Powell’s comments lent support to the dollar, which had come under pressure from rate-cut expectations.Investors are awaiting the release on Friday of the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, the Fed’s favoured gauge of US inflation, and key American jobs figures next week.On Wednesday, the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock markets rallied thanks to a surge of more than nine percent in Alibaba — which runs some of China’s biggest online shopping platforms — after CEO Eddie Wu unveiled plans to ramp up AI spending by about $53 billion.”The industry’s development speed far exceeded what we expected, and the industry’s demand for AI infrastructure also far exceeded our anticipation,” Wu told an audience at the firm’s annual developer conference in Hangzhou, China. Crude prices firmed Wednesday “after (US President) Donald Trump ramped up further pressure on sanctions on Russian oil”, noted Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.- Key figures at around 1100 GMT -London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 9,217.49 pointsParis – CAC 40: DOWN 0.3 percent at 7,847.15 Frankfurt – DAX: DOWN 0.1 percent at 23,603.69Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.3 percent at 45,630.31 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.4 percent at 26,518.65 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.8 percent at 3,853.64 (close)New York – Dow: DOWN 0.2 percent at 46,292.78 (close)Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1752 from $1.1816 on TuesdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3471 from $1.3524Dollar/yen: UP at 148.08 yen from 147.66 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 87.27 pence from 87.37 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.8 percent at $67.52 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 1.0 percent at $64.06 per barrel

Markets waver after Wall St drop, Alibaba soars

Equities were mixed Wednesday following a down day on Wall Street, where worries about high valuations were compounded by mixed messaging from the Federal Reserve on its plans for interest rates.Chinese tech firms stood out, with Alibaba rocketing after its chief executive said the e-commerce giant planned to ramp up spending on artificial intelligence.Investors have enjoyed a months-long rally that has pushed some markets to record highs, but the run-up took a pause Tuesday amid talk that the gains may have gone too far.All three main indexes in New York were dragged down from peaks by US tech titans, including Nvidia and Amazon, which have been at the forefront of the global surge owing to huge AI bets.Another key driver of the gains has been expectations that the Fed will cut borrowing costs several times this year, with last week’s reduction followed by forecasts that two more were in the pipeline.However, comments from key officials stoked uncertainty among investors.Fed boss Jerome Powell warned there was “no risk-free path”.”If we ease too aggressively, we could leave the inflation job unfinished and need to reverse course later to fully restore two-percent inflation,” he said at an event in Rhode Island.But he added: “If we maintain restrictive policy too long, the labour market could soften unnecessarily.”The remarks came as Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic and Chicago counterpart Austan Goolsbee warned of more inflation.However, governor Michelle Bowman called on her colleagues to slash rates amid fears they were “at serious risk of already being behind the curve in addressing deteriorating labour market conditions”.”Now that we have seen many months of deteriorating labour market conditions, it is time for the committee to act decisively and proactively to address decreasing labour market dynamism and emerging signs of fragility,” she said in prepared remarks ahead of an event in Kentucky.Investors are now awaiting the release on Friday of the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, the Fed’s favoured gauge of inflation, and key jobs figures the week after.New governor Stephen Miran, who was appointed by Donald Trump, also called for more reductions.”Given the indications for the Administration’s dovish reaction function for the Fed, the probability for a policy mistake potentially rises, particularly amid three specific drivers that could keep inflation elevated well into 2026,” said Daleep Singh, of PGIM.He pointed to signs that US tariff effects were begining to emerge, a drop in labour supply that is almost as fast as demand — hitting wages and prices — and stimulative fiscal policy “likely contributing to the largest non-war and recession deficits in US history”.Hong Kong rallied with Shanghai thanks to a surge of more than nine percent in Alibaba after CEO Eddie Wu unveiled plans to ramp up AI spending by about $53 billion.”The industry’s development speed far exceeded what we expected, and the industry’s demand for AI infrastructure also far exceeded our anticipation,” Wu told an audience at the firm’s annual developer conference in Hangzhou, China. “We are actively proceeding with the 380 billion (yuan) investment in AI infrastructure, and plan to add more,” he added.”To embrace the arrival of the ASI (artificial superintelligence) era, the energy consumption scale of Alibaba Cloud’s global data centres will increase by tenfold by 2032, compared with 2022, the first year of GenAI.”There were also gains in Hong Kong-listed Tencent, JD.com and Meituan.Elsewhere in Asia, Tokyo, Jakarta, Bangkok and Wellington rose, but Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei and Manila slipped.London, Frankfurt and Paris all dropped in the morning.- Key figures at around 0810 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.3 percent at 45,630.31 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.4 percent at 26,518.65 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.8 percent at 3,853.64 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.3 percent at 9,191.96 Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1791 from $1.1816 on TuesdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3485 from $1.3524Dollar/yen: UP at 148.08 yen from 147.66 yenEuro/pound: UP at 87.42 pence from 87.37 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.6 percent at $63.78 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.5 percent at $67.29 per barrelNew York – Dow: DOWN 0.2 percent at 46,292.78 (close)

Australian telco giant slapped with $66 million fine over ‘appalling’ conduct

Embattled Australian telco giant Optus was hit with a $66 million fine on Wednesday over “appalling” sales conduct as the firm grapples with fallout from a network outage linked to several deaths.A federal court ruled the company — one of Australia’s top telecoms providers — should be punished for selling products to vulnerable customers between 2019 and 2023 that they did not need or want, leaving many in debt.Many of these people were also Indigenous and lived in remote parts of the country.Federal Court’s Justice Patrick O’Sullivan labelled the company’s conduct as “extremely serious” and “appalling”.Consumers incurred thousands of dollars of debt while on modest incomes and became embarrassed or stressed over how they would pay these, he added.The court formally approved the penalty Wednesday, which Optus and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission had agreed to in June. Optus previously described its sales practices during the offending period as “unconscionable conduct and inappropriate”.Following the ruling, Optus said it had changed its sales practices to better support customers. “Optus is remediating impacted customers as a matter of priority,” the company said.It will also donate $662,300 to improve the financial literacy of Indigenous communities. Wednesday’s fine comes just days after an outage impacted 600 people across South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory for at least ten hours.The outage prevented calls to emergency services, with four deaths now linked to the outage.On Wednesday, Optus announced details of an independent review that will probe the series of events that took place and determine why emergency calls did not connect.”There are no words that can express how sorry I am about the very sad loss of the lives of four people, who could not reach emergency services in their time of need,” chief executive Stephen Rue said.Optus was previously fined $7.9 million after an outage halted its mobile and internet systems for nearly 12 hours in 2023.

Asia markets waver after Wall St retreats from record

Equities wavered Wednesday following a down day on Wall Street, where worries about high valuations were compounded by mixed messaging from the Federal Reserve on its plans for interest rates.Investors have enjoyed a months-long rally that has pushed some markets to record highs but the run-up took a pause Tuesday amid talk that the gains may have gone too far.All three main indexes in New York were dragged down from peaks by tech titans including Nvidia and Amazon, which have been at the forefront of the global surge owing to huge bets on artificial intelligence.Another key driver of the gains has been expectations that the Fed will cut borrowing costs several times this year, with last week’s reduction followed by forecasts that two more were in the pipeline.However, comments from key officials stoked uncertainty among investors.Boss Jerome Powell warned there was “no risk-free path”.”If we ease too aggressively, we could leave the inflation job unfinished and need to reverse course later to fully restore two-percent inflation,” he said at an event in Rhode Island.But he added: “If we maintain restrictive policy too long, the labour market could soften unnecessarily.”The remarks came as Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic and Chicago counterpart Austan Goolsbee warned of more inflation.However, governor Michelle Bowman called on her colleagues to slash rates amid fears they were “at serious risk of already being behind the curve in addressing deteriorating labor market conditions”.”Now that we have seen many months of deteriorating labour market conditions, it is time for the committee to act decisively and proactively to address decreasing labor market dynamism and emerging signs of fragility,” she said in prepared remarks ahead of an event in Kentucky.Investors are now awaiting the release Friday of the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, the Fed’s favoured gauge of inflation, and key jobs figures the week after.New governor Stephen Miran, who was appointed by Donald Trump, also called for more reductions.Pepperstone’s Chris Weston wrote: “One assumes that if we see US core PCE inflation print at 0.2 percent month-on-month, followed by a tick higher in the layoff rate… and another weak non-farm payrolls release, Bowman may conclude the time for insurance cuts has passed and revert back to a 50-basis-point dissent.”In Asian trade, Tokyo fell along with Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei and Wellington, though there were small gains in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Manila.- Key figures at around 0230 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.4 percent at 45,300.30 (break)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.2 percent at 26,223.11 Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.3 percent at 3,832.38Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1802 from $1.1816 on TuesdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3514 from $1.3524Dollar/yen: UP at 147.74 yen from 147.66 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 87.33 pence from 87.37 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.3 percent at $63.58 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.2 percent at $67.08 per barrelNew York – Dow: DOWN 0.2 percent at 46,292.78 (close)London – FTSE 100: FLAT at 9,223.32 (close)

In just one year, Google turns AI setbacks into dominance

Caught off guard by ChatGPT and mocked for early blunders with its own generative artificial intelligence efforts, Google has pulled off a dramatic turnaround in just one year, becoming a major player in consumer-facing AI.”The market had written off Alphabet in the AI race,” Matt Britzman, analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said of Google’s parent company. “That was short-sighted.”In March 2023, Google hastily launched its version of ChatGPT, called Bard, four months after the original shook the world.During its launch event, Bard made an error answering a question about the James Webb telescope, drawing ridicule from viewers tuning in from around the world.Several analysts subsequently downgraded their recommendations of Alphabet, worried that ChatGPT would eat into the Google search engine’s generation-long dominance of the internet.A year later, in May 2024, the Mountain View, California giant unveiled AI Overviews, a feature integrated into Google Search that again caused online ridicule after recommending a glue pizza recipe and eating a rock a day in answers to queries.Despite massive investments in AI technology for over a decade — acquiring the DeepMind lab in 2014 and producing high-level research publications that inspired the ChatGPT phenomenon — Google kept stumbling.Much of Google’s AI development “focused on powering its platforms rather than delivering services directly to consumers,” said Ben Wood, an analyst at CCS Insight.Ted Mortonson, an analyst at financial services firm Baird, said Google leadership was caught “flat-footed” and had grown “too complacent” about their AI advantage.- Turnaround trajectory -Amid the crisis, change was afoot. Google co-founder Sergey Brin was seen back at the Googleplex, and the company undertook a drastic internal reorganization.In spring 2024, AI developers were consolidated under a single Google DeepMind banner with Nobel Prize winner Demis Hassabis put in charge.”It took us time to bring these teams together,” CEO Sundar Pichai explained on the “Lex Fridman Podcast” in early June.Google also needed time to deploy its new in-house AI chips, the TPUs (Tensor processing units), essential to the company’s ambitions.But “I could see, internally, the trajectory we were on,” he said.Despite the “glue pizza” missteps, or hallucinations in AI parlance, Overviews marked the first step in Google’s turnaround.Next came the commercial launch of NotebookLM — a digital document tool that can synthesize uploaded content into easy-to-understand writing or even a chatty podcast.At Google’s developer conference in May 2025, the company unveiled video generation tool Veo 3, whose precision and consistency made a big splash, along with AI Mode, a feature that completed the transformation of search engine into ChatGPT-style chatbot.August brought a new version of the Pixel smartphone, whose AI enables 100x zoom and real-time translation. Mid-September saw the launch of video generation on YouTube.”Today’s tools, especially from Google, can be used in the real world, as opposed to just being developer conference demos,” emphasized Avi Greengart of Techsponential.With Pixel, “Google is in pole position in AI equipment,” said Wood.Google drove the point home with its image editing program integrated into Gemini, informally called Nano Banana, which became such a sensation that Gemini topped ChatGPT in iPhone downloads for the first time earlier this month.The outlook brightened further for Google when it avoided having to sell its Chrome browser — a government demand in its search monopoly trial that was rejected by a federal judge in early September.Signaling the shift, Apple is reportedly considering using Gemini for its overhaul of AI voice assistant Siri, according to Bloomberg.A partnership with the iPhone giant would hand Google a new revenue stream, though monetizing its AI “is still somewhat of a question mark,” said Greengart.”Google is playing the long game,” said Wood. “It knows that right now, it needs to offer free services to get consumers engaged with Gemini. However, in the longer term, it’s hoping this can be turned into a substantial revenue stream.”

New York’s finance sector faces risks from Trump visa crackdown

On a bright September morning, employees stream through the turnstiles and vast lobby of Goldman Sachs’ headquarters in the sunlit Battery Park City neighborhood of Manhattan.More than 9,000 people work at the investment bank’s New York head office.And hundreds of them depend on the H-1B skilled worker visa, recently targeted by the Trump administration for a dramatic overhaul.A September 19 order by President Donald Trump mandates $100,000 payments from companies for every new hire through the program.Though the major impact will be on the tech sector — the largest source of H-1B hiring — financial companies like Goldman Sachs will also be forced to re-evaluate their practice of hiring from abroad.- Concentration in New YorkIn the first two quarters of 2025, Goldman Sachs was the biggest recipient of H-1B visas in New York City. The Big Apple was, in turn, the single location with the most H-1B recipients in all of the United States.Aggregated at the state level, California and Texas both attract more H-1B visa holders than the state of New York; but there is no one city or town in either of these states that boasts a higher number of H-1B holders than the east coast metropolis.This concentration of H-1B visas in New York is driven by hiring at Wall Street’s financial giants.Data from US Citizenship and Immigration Services analyzed by AFP shows that four of the top five H-1B visa recipients in New York City are financial services companies: the investment banks Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup, and financial data company Bloomberg. The other company in the top five is the consulting and professional services firm McKinsey.Further down the list, and outside of the finance sector, universities such as Columbia and NYU and medical institutions like the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center and Weil Cornell Medical College also brought a number of H-1B hires to the city.- Negative impactsAccording to 2025 data, H-1B positions filled by the banks skewed towards the more technical side of the finance industry, with many visa holders working in software engineering, quantitative analytics, and data science.Goldman Sachs did not respond to emailed questions asking how a $100,000 price tag would impact their ability to hire for such roles in the future. Contacted by AFP with similar questions, Bloomberg and Citigroup declined to comment.In general, experts believe the fee will lead to a large reduction in applications for the visa scheme, which could have further negative impacts on the economy.”A visa fee of this scale is likely to drastically curtail the use of H-1B visas,” Ethan G. Lewis, Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College, told AFP.”It will lead to reduced hires of US workers and slower productivity growth, and, longer term, discourage people [from other countries] from going to college and beyond in the US, because many tend to rely on H-1B visas for their first job out of studies.”In the tech industry the announcement of the visa fee has caused consternation, with many entrepreneurs — among them Trump’s ally Elon Musk — warning that the US will not be able to fill highly skilled roles with only homegrown talent.Others have speculated that, rather than being offered to American workers, some jobs will simply be outsourced overseas.

US stocks retreat from records as tech giants fall

Wall Street’s bull run showed signs of fatigue Tuesday as major indices retreated from records on drops by Amazon, Nvidia and other tech giants.The pullback followed comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warning that cutting interest rates “too aggressively” could stoke inflation, while the central bank boss also emphasized the need to try to prevent the labor market from softening “unnecessarily.”All three major US indices have finished at records the last three days.”Today’s pullback after fresh record highs could reflect market participants giving credence to valuation concerns amid a historic run, particularly in the mega-cap space, though investors have repeatedly shown a willingness to buy dips throughout this rally,” said Briefing.com.The tech-rich Nasdaq led US indices lower, dropping one percent. Nvidia, which rallied on Monday after announcing a $100 billion investment in OpenAI to build infrastructure for next-generation artificial intelligence, retreated on Tuesday, losing 2.8 percent. While “leading tech companies are investing hundreds of billions in generative AI… some investors continue to question if this is money well spent,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation.Earlier, London ended the day flat and Paris and Frankfurt added barely half of one percent as investors digested purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data — a closely watched gauge of economic health. The index showed eurozone business activity hit a 16-month high in September, partly driven by solid growth in Germany, while France weighed on performance.Britain’s reading came in below expectations, suggesting the economy is losing momentum, analysts noted, as inflation fears linger.With trade subdued by a holiday in Japan and an approaching typhoon in Hong Kong, Asian markets mostly drifted as Hong Kong and Shanghai both closed lower. Taipei jumped more than one percent, with chip titan TSMC soaring over three percent as it tracked US counterpart Nvidia, which announced a $100-billion investment in OpenAI for next-generation artificial intelligence.Oil prices rose after President Donald Trump called on Europe to completely halt oil imports from the country over the Ukraine war. The US president also threatened sanctions on Russia in a speech that tilted more heavily in support of Ukraine than earlier Trump stances.- Key figures at around 2050 GMT -New York – Dow: DOWN 0.2 percent at 46,292.78 (close)New York – S&P 500: DOWN 0.6 percent at 6,656.92 (close)New York – Nasdaq Composite: DOWN 1.0 percent at 22,573.47 (close)London – FTSE 100: FLAT at 9,223.32 (close)Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.5 percent at 7,872.02 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.4 percent at 23,611.33 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.7 percent at 26,159.12 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 3,821.83 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Closed for a holidayEuro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1816 from $1.1803 on MondayPound/dollar: UP at $1.3524 from $1.3514Dollar/yen: DOWN at 147.66 yen from 147.72 yenEuro/pound: UP at 87.37 pence from 87.34 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 1.8 percent at $63.41 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 1.6 percent at $67.63 per barrel

Stocks mark time with eyes on key economic data

Stock markets marked time Tuesday as traders monitored key economic indicators, with US inflation data due later this week that could influence Federal Reserve policy.On Wall Street, the Dow stood just in positive territory more than two hours into the session but the tech-heavy Nasdaq was off 0.3 percent and the broader S&P 500 was also marginally into the red.London ended the day flat and Paris and Frankfurt added barely half of one percent as investors digested purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data — a closely watched gauge of economic health. The index showed eurozone business activity hit a 16-month high in September, partly driven by solid growth in Germany, while France weighed on performance.Britain’s reading came in below expectations, suggesting the economy is losing momentum, analysts noted, as inflation fears linger.Gold pushed to another all-time high and the dollar steadied. Oil prices rose around two percent after the OECD on Tuesday raised its forecast for world economic growth this year.Among shares on the move, while a clutch of major tech firms took a breather, consumer health company Kenvue rose around four percent, bouncing back from a record low in the previous session, after medical experts including the World Health Organization refuted US President Donald Trump’s linking of the firm’s popular pain reliever Tylenol to autism. In focus remains Friday’s report on US personal consumption expenditures, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Markets expect two further interest rate cuts by the Fed by the end of the year as officials aim to shore up the stuttering labour market despite elevated inflation.With US indices looking to build on a start to the week which saw them finish at fresh all-time highs, David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said that while “leading tech companies are investing hundreds of billions in generative AI… some investors continue to question if this is money well spent”.Yet, “despite this, equities continue to grind higher with little indication that there’s anything on the horizon which could derail the current rally,” he added.With trade subdued by a holiday in Japan and an approaching typhoon in Hong Kong, Asian markets mostly drifted as Hong Kong and Shanghai both closed lower. Taipei jumped more than one percent, with chip titan TSMC soaring over three percent as it tracked US counterpart Nvidia, which announced a $100-billion investment in OpenAI for next-generation artificial intelligence.A rise in tech giants helped lift major Wall Street indices to fresh highs on Monday.However, there are growing worries that the surge may have gone too far and markets are due a pullback with eyes on a possible government shutdown in Washington.Elsewhere, investors will keep an eye on an expected meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Argentine counterpart Javier Milei at the UN General Assembly after the US Treasury pledged to “do what is needed” to support Argentina’s economy, which has faced a plunge in the peso, stocks and bonds. – Key figures at around 1550 GMT -New York – Dow: UP 0.2 percent at 46,461.99 pointsNew York – S&P 500: DOWN 0.1 percent at 6,684.53New York – Nasdaq Composite: DOWN 0.3 percent at 22,723.02 London – FTSE 100: FLAT at 9,223.32 (close)Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.5 percent at 7,872.02 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.4 percent at 23,611.33 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.7 percent at 26,159.12 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 3,821.83 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Closed for a holidayEuro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1791 from $1.1799 on MondayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3514 from $1.3515Dollar/yen: UP at 147.88 yen from 147.87 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 87.25 pence from 87.30 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 2.4 percent at $63.76 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 2.0 percent at $67.91 per barrel

China may strengthen climate role amid US fossil fuel push

All eyes are on China this week, as the world’s biggest polluter readies a new emissions-cutting plan — reinforcing its role as a steadfast defender of global climate diplomacy while Europe stalls and the United States doubles down on fossil fuels.United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has convened a mini climate summit on Wednesday during a week of high-level talks, where Beijing is expected to unveil its updated “Nationally Determined Contributions.”These need to be in place before the main climate gathering of the year, the COP30 summit in Belem, Brazil, in November. Although China accounts for nearly 30 percent of annual global greenhouse gas emissions, it has increasingly positioned itself as a driving force in international climate talks and as a green technology superpower. It has strongly backed the UN process under the Paris Agreement despite the second departure of its principal geopolitical rival, the United States.”China is a very stable partner,” Brazil’s Ana Toni, CEO of COP30, told AFP. “We are expecting China to continue on the right path. Let us hope that the other players will do the same.”Chinese Premier Li Qiang is poised to be the first speaker at the mini summit and could unveil the new plan then, or it may come before.What China chooses as its 2035 emissions reduction target could make or break the Paris goal of limiting warming to “well below” 2C since preindustrial times and preferably 1.5C — a target Guterres told AFP last week could be at risk of “collapsing.” Beijing has said its 2035 plan will, for the first time, cover all economic sectors and greenhouse gases.- Under promise, over deliver -Under its last plan, announced in 2021, China said it would aim to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve net zero by 2060 — deemed highly insufficient by groups that track such targets.But observers say it is more important to watch what China does than what it says.”The China approach is ‘We’ll set a modest target then outperform it,'” Helen Clarkson, CEO of the international nonprofit Climate Group that runs Climate Week in New York City every September told AFP. By contrast, the European Union failed to adopt a unified plan ahead of the UN General Assembly, opting for a non-binding statement of intent — although the 27-nation bloc has decarbonized faster than many other developed nations.And the United States under President Donald Trump has recast itself as a zealous promoter of fossil fuels. During his first term, the US withdrew from the Paris accord. In his second term, Washington has not simply abandoned climate action but has gone on the offensive for oil and gas interests — threatening to punish countries that participate in the International Maritime Organization’s carbon pricing system for shipping and embedding the sale of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) in trade deals, for example.”Countries are confronted with competing sales pitches, as China tries to sell them solar panels and the US pushes LNG,” Manish Bapna, president of the nonprofit Natural Resources Defense Council, told AFP.”For China, it’s a long-term economic plan, and of course, they can do that because of the structure of their politics,” said Clarkson. “What we haven’t really figured out is how to do these long-term climate plans on short-term democratic cycles.”

OECD raises world growth outlook as tariffs contained, for now

The world economy will grow more than previously forecast this year after absorbing the shock of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, but their full impact remains uncertain, the OECD said Tuesday.In June, the Paris-based organisation had cut its forecast from 3.1 percent to 2.9 percent, warning at the time that Trump’s tariffs would stifle the world economy.But in an updated outlook on Tuesday, it raised the projection to 3.2 percent, saying the economy “proved more resilient than anticipated” in the first half of 2025.”The impact of tariffs is taking longer to reach the economy,” OECD chief economist Alvaro Pereira told AFP in an interview.The OECD report said “front-loading” — companies rushing to import goods ahead of Trump’s tariffs — “was an important source of support”.The economy also got a boost from strong AI-related investments in the United States and government spending in China.The updated figure is still a slight slowdown from 3.3 percent in 2024.”The full effects of tariff increases have yet to be felt — with many changes being phased in over time and companies initially absorbing some tariff increases through (profit) margins,” the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said.”But (they) are becoming increasingly visible in spending choices, labour markets and consumer prices,” the report said.- ‘Significant risks remain’ -World growth is due to slow to 2.9 percent in 2026 “as front-loading ceases and higher tariff rates and still-high policy uncertainty dampen investment and trade”, the OECD said.Trump imposed a baseline 10 percent tariff on imports from around the world in April.He later hit dozens of countries with even higher duties, but the US leader also left the door open for negotiations, striking deals with Britain, Japan and the European Union, among others.The United States has yet to find a compromise with China, though the world’s two biggest economies have temporarily de-escalated their tit-for-tat tariffs while they negotiate.The overall effective US tariff rate rose to an estimated 19.5 percent in August, the highest level since 1933, the OECD said.”Significant risks to the economic outlook remain,” the OECD said.”Amid ongoing policy uncertainty, a key concern is that bilateral tariff rates could be raised further on merchandise imports,” it said.The OECD also warned that inflation could rise as food and energy prices climb, and companies begin to pass the cost of higher tariffs to consumers.”On the upside, reductions in trade restrictions or faster development and adoption of artificial intelligence technologies could strengthen growth prospects,” it said.- Growth due to slow -The OECD also upgraded the growth outlook of the United States for 2025 from 1.6 percent to 1.8 percent but that is much slower than 2.8 percent last year.US growth is expected to slow even further to 1.5 percent next year due to higher tariffs and elevated “policy uncertainty”.The OECD also pointed to the impact of Trump’s immigration crackdown and cuts in the federal workforce.The report was written before the White House raised the H-1B visa fee for high-skilled workers to $100,000, which has rattled the tech industry.”We do think that continuing to attract high-skilled individuals from the United States or from around the world is a key strength of the US economy,” said Pereira, noting that there is a labour shortage in the tech sector.The OECD raised the growth outlook of other major economies: to 4.9 percent in China, 1.2 percent in the eurozone and 1.1 percent in Japan.But it flagged a drop in industrial production in recent months in several countries, including Brazil, Germany and South Korea, and moderating consumption in the United States, China and the eurozone.