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Cash-strapped Taliban look to airspace for windfall

Far above Kabul, the cash-strapped Taliban government has located a potentially lucrative revenue stream: Afghanistan’s airspace. As Israel and Iran’s exchange of missiles threw flight paths into disarray this year, the skies above Afghanistan offered carriers a less turbulent and faster route to ply — for a flat $700 overflight fee, according to industry insiders.The US aviation authority eased restrictions on the country’s airspace and paved the way for commercial flyovers in 2023, two years after the Taliban takeover. Airspace that had long been avoided — as the country endured four decades of war and shifting powerbrokers — suddenly became a viable option, allowing carriers to abbreviate routes and save on fuel costs.But it was not until the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June that the route really gained traction, allowing the Taliban government to potentially rake in millions.  Faced with shuttered airspace over Iran and Iraq, and unpredictable openings and closures across the Middle East, airlines saw reason to divert course and found refuge over Afghanistan. While missiles clogged the neighbouring airspace, “the risk of flying over Afghanistan (was) virtually zero”, said France-based aerospace and defence consultant Xavier Tytelman. “It’s like flying over the sea.” May’s average of 50 planes cutting through Afghanistan each day skyrocketed to around 280 after June 13, when the Iran-Israel war erupted, data from tracking website Flightradar24 showed. Since then, in any given day, more than 200 planes often traverse Afghanistan — equivalent to roughly $4.2 million a month, though this figure is difficult to verify as the authorities do not publish budgets and have declined to comment.- Opaque transactions -While not a princely sum in terms of government revenue, the overflight fees offer a much-needed boost to Afghanistan’s coffers as it contends with a massive humanitarian crisis and a war-battered economy. Around 85 percent of Afghanistan’s population live on less than one dollar a day, according to the UN, and nearly one in four Afghans aged 15 to 29 are unemployed.The World Bank says overflight fees contributed to modest growth in Afghanistan’s economy in 2024, before the route began attracting carriers needing to bypass Iran.International airlines returned to Afghanistan starting in 2023, with Turkish Airlines, flydubai and Air Arabia making almost daily flights from Afghan airports.Others, such as Singapore Airlines, Air France, Aeroflot, Air Canada and Swiss Air, fly over Kabul, Mazar-i-Sharif or Kandahar — as practicality outweighs the risks, which remain.Consultant Tytelman warned that Afghanistan is still a less than ideal place to land in case of technical or medical emergencies, with potential complications due to a lack of spare parts and dilapidated health care services. Yet he noted, “planes are landing in Kabul every day”. Airlines were loath to discuss the mechanics of paying the Taliban government, which remains isolated by many countries in part over its restrictions on women.Multiple companies contacted by AFP said they do not provide overflight payment information.  Afghanistan’s aviation officials did not respond to multiple requests for comment, and would not confirm the overflight fees or the process by which they are paid.”Companies are not formally prohibited from trading with Afghanistan, as US sanctions target only certain Taliban officials,” a World Bank expert told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity. However, “some abstain out of fear of being associated with the ruling power”, he added.  Industry insiders speaking on condition of anonymity said the $700 overflight fees are paid to third-party intermediaries, such as the United Arab Emirates-based GAAC Holding, which manages airports in Afghanistan, or overflight brokers.Some airlines may now even pay directly, as more countries develop diplomatic ties with the Taliban government. – Reinforcing authority -Only Russia has officially recognised the Taliban authorities, who are hamstrung by frozen assets, sanctions on individuals and a lack of trust in the banking sector. Against such economic headwinds, the airspace revenue stream “is helpful for the cash-strapped current administration”, said Sulaiman Bin Shah, former deputy minister of industry and commerce in the ousted government and founder of the Catalysts Afghanistan consultancy. But Bin Shah emphasised the overflight traffic offers more than just financial benefits, as it increases normalisation of the Taliban authorities. “It reinforces their grip on state functions and supports the image of a functioning government, even without formal international recognition,” he said. “So while the income itself is not transformative, it plays a meaningful role in the administration’s economic narrative and political positioning.”

Trump thumbs nose at decades of India courtship

India once united US policymakers like few issues. For nearly three decades, US presidents of both parties courted New Delhi as an emerging ally, politely overlooking disagreements for the sake of larger goals.Donald Trump has abruptly changed that.The US administration on Wednesday slapped 50 percent tariffs on many Indian products as Trump seeks to punish India for buying oil from Russia.India was a Cold War partner of Moscow but since the 1990s US leaders have hoped for a joint front with fellow democracy India in the face of the rise of China, seen by Washington as its top long-term adversary.In striking timing, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi heads to China this weekend, the latest meeting between the world’s two most populous nations as they explore areas of common ground.Trump has accused India of fueling Moscow’s deadly attacks on Ukraine by purchasing Russian oil. Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro even called Ukraine “Modi’s war” in a Bloomberg TV interview Wednesday.Yet Trump has refrained from tougher US sanctions on Russia itself, saying he still hopes for a negotiated settlement despite wide pessimism.”This is not just about tariffs, not just about Russia, not just about oil,” said Tanvi Madan of the Brookings Institution.”There seems to be something broader going on here — personal on Trump’s side, piqued as he may be at India,” she said.”And then on the Indian side, for Modi, it becomes a political issue.”- Faltering bromance -Trump and Modi, both right-wing populists, appeared to forge a strong bond during Trump’s first term.In 2020, Trump rejoiced as Modi invited him to inaugurate the world’s largest cricket stadium in front more than 120,000 people.But Trump has since appeared irritated as he seeks credit for what he said was Nobel Prize-worthy diplomacy between Pakistan and India, which struck its neighbor in May in response to a massacre of Indian civilians in divided Kashmir.India, which adamantly rejects any third-party mediation on Kashmir, has since given the cold shoulder to Trump as he muses of brokering between New Delhi and Islamabad.Pakistan by contrast has embraced Trump’s attention, with its powerful army chief meeting him at the White House.US policymakers have long skirted around India’s sensitivities on Kashmir and sought to contain fallout from disagreements on other issues.Jake Sullivan, national security advisor under Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden, said that Trump had broken a bipartisan consensus with his “massive trade offensive” against India.India is now thinking “I guess maybe we have to go show up in Beijing and sit with the Chinese because we’ve got to hedge against America,” Sullivan told news and opinion site The Bulwark.Madan said that for the Indian establishment, the tariffs contradicted US assurances that unlike China, Washington would not use “economic ties to coerce India.””If you’re India, even if you sort this particular issue out, you’re now saying, we used to see this increasing interaction with the US across many domains as an opportunity,” she said.”And now Trump has made us realize that we should also see that integration or dependence as a vulnerability.”- Chance for China -For China, Modi’s trip is an opportunity “to drive a wedge between India and the US,” said William Yang, an analyst at the International Crisis Group.”Beijing won’t miss the opportunity to present itself as a ‘reliable partner’ that is interested in deepening relations with New Delhi,” he said.But he noted that India and China still had fundamental differences, despite recent efforts to resolve a longstanding border dispute.China is the key partner and military supplier of Pakistan and has sought to ramp up influence in the Indian Ocean.Kriti Upadhyaya, a visiting fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation, played down long-term consequences of the tariff rift, noting how much the US-India relationship has developed in recent years.”When you really like somebody, a friend who’s close to you, you’re always going to have more grievances with them,” she said.

US stocks reach new peaks as investors digest US GDP

Two of Wall Street’s major indexes closed at record highs Thursday, lifted by an upward revision to second-quarter US GDP data and strong earnings from AI chip giant Nvidia.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.16 percent to a record 45,636.90, while the broad-based S&P 500 Index gained 0.32 percent to 6,501.86, also a record. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.53 percent to 21,705.16.The United States saw its gross domestic product grow at an annualized rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter, according to Thursday’s official update — higher than previously calculated and above market expectations. The initial GDP estimate published in late July showed annualized growth of 3.0 percent, while investors had expected a revision to only 3.1 percent.The upward revision mainly reflected improvements in investment and consumer spending, the Commerce Department said. Growth was also bolstered by a decline in US imports, which are subtracted from GDP calculations. This drop occurred as businesses pulled back on shipments after rushing to stock up ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes.Markets are anticipating a potential Federal Reserve rate cut at its September meeting, which could stimulate economic activity. The market “is waiting a little bit to get some more information feeding into Fed decisions,” including next week’s job numbers, Victoria Fernandez of Crossmark Global Investments told AFP.”After the initial release, there were concerns that the domestic economy was slowing quite sharply,” said Richard Flax, chief investment officer at Moneyfarm. “But these latest data suggest that the economy is a bit stronger than initially feared.”The focus now shifts to Friday’s release of a key inflation reading and its potential impact on the outlook for additional rate cuts.Despite the positive market sentiment, Nvidia shares fell 0.82 percent, adding to recent declines even after posting a profit of $26.4 billion on record revenue of $46.7 billion in the second quarter. Investors had keenly awaited Wednesday’s earnings update from the California-based firm, whose remarkable growth has driven strong gains for tech stocks in recent months.The earnings report comes amid market concerns over a potential spending bubble in the artificial intelligence sector that could hurt the chip giant’s prospects.In Europe, the Paris stock market extended its recovery after tumbling early in the week on fears that France’s minority government could be toppled. Prime Minister François Bayrou had proposed a confidence vote over his budget cuts. France’s borrowing costs have soared since the vote was called Monday, as the government struggles to find around 44 billion euros ($51 billion) in savings.- Key figures at around 2045 GMT -New York – Dow: UP 0.16 percent at 45,636.90 points New York – S&P 500: UP 0.32 percent at 6,501.86New York – Nasdaq: UP 0.53 percent to 21,705.16London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.4 percent at 9,216.82 Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.2 percent at 7,762.60 Frankfurt – DAX: FLAT at 24,039.92Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.7 percent at 42,828.79 (close) Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.8 percent at 24,998.82 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 1.1 percent at 3,843.60 (close)Euro/dollar:  UP at $1.1680 from $1.1633 on WednesdayPound/dollar: UP at 1.3508 from $1.3496Dollar/yen:  DOWN at 146.97 from 147.51 yen Euro/pound: UP at 86.46 from 86.20 pence West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.70 percent at $64.60 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.84 percent at $68.62 per barrel

Luxury carmaker Lotus to slash UK jobs amid US tariffs

Chinese-owned luxury carmaker Lotus said Thursday that it planned to cut up to 550 UK jobs, in part over uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.The layoffs represent over forty percent of its 1,300 employees in Britain. Lotus said the restructuring was necessary to “secure a sustainable future,” citing the “rapidly evolving automotive environment, which is seeing uncertainty with rapid changes in global policies, including tariffs.”The carmaker, which is majority owned by Chinese auto giant Geely, has several sites in the UK, including its headquarters in Hethel, eastern England.Another Lotus factory is in Wuhan, China.Automakers have been among the companies hit hardest by Trump’s tariff onslaught as he tries to bring auto production back to the United States.Britain and the United States struck a trade deal in May under which a 27.5-percent tariff rate on UK car exports dropped to 10 percent for the first 100,000 vehicles per year.But the levy remains higher than that placed on UK cars before Trump’s tariff blitz in April.UK exports of vehicles to the United States rebounded in July following months of declines as the trade agreement came into force on June 30, industry data showed Thursday.

Stocks mixed as investors digest US GDP, Nvidia earnings

Stock markets fluctuated Thursday as investors digested stronger-than-estimated US economic growth and record earnings at AI chip giant Nvidia.The tech-heavy Nasdaq edged higher on Wall Street, while the broad-based S&P 500 was flat and the Dow fell slightly.Shares in Nvidia were down 1.4 percent, adding to recent declines despite posting a profit of $26.4 billion on record revenue of $46.7 billion in the second quarter.Investors had keenly awaited the earnings update late Wednesday from the California-based firm, whose robust growth has largely driven strong gains for tech stocks in recent months.Its shares fell, however, as important data centre revenue declined.The earnings report comes amid market worries over a spending bubble in the artificial intelligence sector that could burst and hurt the chip giant’s fortunes.”The market seems to be asking whether Nvidia can keep up this pace as competition intensifies and AI enthusiasm starts to look a little overbought,” said Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at traders Scope Markets.Investors were also reacting to US data showing that the world’s biggest economy grew 3.3 percent in the second quarter, up from an initial estimate of 3.0 percent in July.”After the initial release, there were concerns that the domestic economy was slowing quite sharply,” said Richard Flax, chief investment officer at Moneyfarm.”But these latest data suggest that the economy is a bit stronger than initially feared,” he said.The upward revision mainly reflected improvements in investment and consumer spending, the Commerce Department said.But overall, growth in the second quarter was also bolstered by a fall in US imports, which are subtracted from the GDP. This drop came as businesses pulled back on shipments after rushing to stock up ahead of US President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes.The data could offer insight into the outlook for US interest rates, with the Federal Reserve eyeing further cuts to borrowing costs in a bid to boost the US economy.”Overall, this release probably doesn’t change Federal Reserve thinking too much,” Flax said, adding that the central bank was still expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting.”But a stronger than expected result from domestic demand suggests that there might not be that much scope to cut rates over the next 12 months.”The focus now shifts to Friday’s release of a key inflation reading for the Fed, and its potential impact on outlook for additional rate cuts.In Europe, the Paris stock market extended its recovery, having tumbled early in the week on fears that France’s minority government could be toppled.This was after Prime Minister Francois Bayrou proposed a confidence vote over his proposed budget cuts.France’s borrowing costs have soared since the vote was called Monday, as the government wrestles with how to find around 44 billion euros ($51 billion) in savings.- Key figures at around 1545 GMT -New York – Dow: DOWN 0.1 percent at 45,527.95 points New York – S&P 500: FLAT at 6,482.84New York – Nasdaq: UP 0.2 percent at 21,640.96London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.4 percent at 9,216.82 Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.2 percent at 7,762.60 Frankfurt – DAX: FLAT at 24,039.92Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.7 percent at 42,828.79 (close) Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.8 percent at 24,998.82 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 1.1 percent at 3,843.60 (close)Euro/dollar:  UP at $1.1672 from $1.1633 on WednesdayPound/dollar: UP at 1.3513 from $1.3496Dollar/yen:  DOWN at 147.01 from 147.51 yen Euro/pound: UP at 86.39 from 86.20 pence West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.0 percent at $63.54 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.7 percent at $66.98 per barrel

Stocks mixed after Nvidia record earnings

Major stock markets traded mixed Thursday after Nvidia’s quarterly earnings beat expectations, but shares in the AI powerhouse slipped over worries about its stalled business in China.Investors had keenly awaited the key earnings update late Wednesday from the California-based firm, whose robust growth has largely driven strong gains for tech stocks in recent months.Nvidia posted a profit of $26.4 billion on record revenue of $46.7 billion in the second quarter, but it shares fell in after-market US trading as important data centre revenue declined. The earnings report comes amid market worries over a spending bubble in the artificial intelligence sector that could burst and hurt the chip giant’s fortunes.”The market seems to be asking whether Nvidia can keep up this pace as competition intensifies and AI enthusiasm starts to look a little overbought,” noted Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at traders Scope Markets.The dollar dropped against main rivals awaiting US growth data due Thursday that should provide clues regarding the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.It could offer also insight into the outlook for US interest rates, with the Federal Reserve eyeing further cuts to borrowing costs in a bid to boost the world’s biggest economy. Japan’s media on Thursday reported that Tokyo’s chief negotiator for the country’s trade agreement with the United States, Ryosei Akazawa, had postponed a planned trip to Washington. Akazawa said Wednesday he hoped to use the trip to pressure the US administration to implement reduced tariffs agreed upon in July.In Europe, the Paris stock market extended its recovery, having tumbled early in the week on fears that France’s minority government could be toppled.This was after Prime Minister Francois Bayrou proposed a confidence vote over his proposed budget cuts.France’s borrowing costs have soared since the vote was called Monday, as the government wrestles with how to find around 44 billion euros ($51 billion) in savings.Oil prices fell Thursday owing to a healthy supply situation, according to analysts.- Key figures at around 1030 GMT -London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.5 percent at 9,213.00 pointsParis – CAC 40: UP 0.2 percent at 7,761.32 Frankfurt – DAX: DOWN 0.1 percent at 24,031.63Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.7 percent at 42,828.79 (close) Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.8 percent at 24,998.82 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 1.1 percent at 3,843.60 (close)New York – Dow: UP 0.3 percent at 45,565.23 points (close)Euro/dollar:  UP at $1.1667 from $1.1633 on WednesdayPound/dollar: UP at 1.3523 from $1.3496Dollar/yen:  DOWN at 147.00 from 147.51 yen Euro/pound: UP at 86.29 from 86.20 pence West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.5 percent at $63.86 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.5 percent at $67.13 per barrel

Asian markets mixed after Nvidia earnings

Asian markets were mixed Thursday after AI powerhouse Nvidia’s quarterly earnings beat expectations, but its shares slipped over worries about the company’s stalled business in China.Investors had been awaiting the key earnings update from the California-based firm, whose robust growth has largely driven strong gains for tech stocks in recent months.The AI giant posted a profit of $26.4 billion on record revenue of $46.7 billion in the recently ended quarter, but shares fell in after-market trading as important data centre revenue declined. The earnings report comes amid market worries about an AI spending bubble that could burst and hurt the chip giant’s fortunes.”The information feeds into niggling fears of slowing investment in the AI space and lower growth going forward,” Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com in Melbourne told Bloomberg News.During Thursday trading in Asia, Tokyo, Shanghai and Seoul finished up, while Taipei fell.Hong Kong was down 0.7 percent in afternoon trade.In Japan, media reported Thursday that Tokyo’s chief negotiator for the trade agreement with the United States, Ryosei Akazawa, had postponed his planned trip to Washington. Akazawa said Wednesday he hoped to use this trip to pressure the US administration to implement reduced tariffs agreed upon in July.London, Paris and Frankfurt ticked up during early trading in Europe.On Wednesday the Paris stock market bucked the downward trend by rebounding from the previous day’s tumble. That fall had been caused by fears that France’s minority government could be toppled after Prime Minister Francois Bayrou proposed a confidence vote over his proposed budget cuts.France’s borrowing costs have soared since the vote was called Monday, as the government wrestles with how to find around 44 billion euros ($51 billion) in savings.- Key figures at around 0715 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.7 percent at 42,828.79 (close) Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.7 percent at 25,034.13 Shanghai – Composite: UP 1.1 percent at 3,843.60 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 9,260.21Euro/dollar:  UP at $1.1666 from $1.1633 on WednesdayPound/dollar: UP at 1.3508 from $1.3496 Dollar/yen:  DOWN at 146.83 from 147.51 yen Euro/pound: UP at 86.36 from 86.20 pence West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.9 percent at $63.58 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.9 percent at $67.47 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.3 percent at 45,565.23 points (close)

Asian markets mixed after Nvidia earnings

Asian markets were mixed Thursday after AI powerhouse Nvidia’s quarterly earnings beat expectations but its shares slipped over worries about the company’s stalled business in China.Investors had been awaiting the key earnings update from the California-based firm, whose robust growth has largely driven strong gains for tech stocks in recent months.The AI giant posted a profit of $26.4 billion on record revenue of $46.7 billion in the recently ended quarter, but shares fell in after-market trading as important data centre revenue declined. The earnings report comes amid market worries about an AI spending bubble that could burst and hurt the chip giant’s fortunes. “The information feeds into niggling fears of slowing investment in the AI space and lower growth going forward,” Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com in Melbourne told Bloomberg News.During Thursday morning trading in Asia, Hong Kong and Taipei were down, while Tokyo, Seoul and Shanghai advanced.In Japan, media reported Thursday that Tokyo’s chief negotiator for the trade agreement with the United States, Ryosei Akazawa, had postponed his planned trip to Washington. Akazawa said Wednesday he hoped to use this trip to pressure the US administration to implement reduced tariffs agreed upon in July.In Europe, the Paris stock market bucked the downward trend Wednesday by rebounding from the previous day’s tumble. That fall had been caused by fears that France’s minority government could be toppled after Prime Minister Francois Bayrou proposed a confidence vote over his proposed budget cuts.France’s borrowing costs have soared since the vote was called Monday, as the government wrestles with how to find around 44 billion euros ($51 billion) in savings.- Key figures at around 0300 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.5 percent at 42,731.74 Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.7 percent at 25,036.22 Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.4 percent at 3,816.77London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 9,255.50 (close)Euro/dollar:  UP at $1.1652 from $1.1633 on WednesdayPound/dollar: UP at 1.3516 from $1.3496 Dollar/yen:  DOWN at 147.24 from 147.51 yen Euro/pound: UP at 86.21 from 86.20 pence West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.8 percent at $63.67 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.7 percent at $67.58 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.3 percent at 45,565.23 points (close)

Qantas says profits up, strong travel demand ahead

Qantas Airways said Thursday it lifted annual net profit and saw a bright outlook for travel demand, days after it was fined for illegally firing staff during the Covid-19 pandemic.Australia’s dominant airline group said rising passenger numbers boosted its financial performance, and it saw further revenue growth in the six months ahead for Qantas and its budget subsidiary Jetstar.”While we are pleased with the progress we are making, we remain focused on further improving our performance,” chief executive Vanessa Hudson said.”Continuing strong demand across all market segments, combined with our dual brand strategy, helped the Group grow earnings,” she said in a statement.Qantas said revenue climbed 8.6 percent to Aus$23.8 billion (US$15.5 billion) in the 12 months to June 30, 2025 when compared to a year earlier.Net profit surged 28.3 percent to Aus$1.6 billion.Last week, an Australian court fined Qantas Aus$90 million for unlawfully laying off 1,800 ground staff during the Covid-19 pandemic.The airline said Thursday it had paid the full penalty.Qantas said it expected unit revenue on domestic and international routes to rise by a few percent in the six months to December 31, 2025.The carrier said direct flights from Australia’s east coast to London and New York — its so-called Project Sunrise — were “a step closer to reality”.The long-range Airbus A350-1000ULR aircraft for those flights were scheduled to enter final assembly in the coming months, with delivery expected in October 2026.

AI giant Nvidia beats earnings expectations but shares fall

AI powerhouse Nvidia reported quarterly earnings Wednesday that beat expectations, but shares slipped amid concerns about an AI chip spending bubble and the company’s stalled business in China.The California-based firm posted profit of $26.4 billion on record revenue of $46.7 billion in the recently ended quarter, driven by intense demand for chips from major tech companies powering AI datacenter computing.While overall revenue significantly increased year-over-year, money taken in from Nvidia’s Data Center compute products like its coveted graphics processing units (GPUs) declined 1 percent from the previous quarter. The drop was driven by a $4 billion decrease in sales of H20 chips—specialized processors the company designed for the Chinese market, according to the earnings report.For the current quarter, Nvidia projected $54 billion in revenue but said its forecast assumes no H20 sales.Nvidia’s high-end GPUs remain in hot demand from tech giants building data centers for artificial intelligence applications. However, investors are questioning whether the massive AI investments are sustainable.”The data center results, while massive, showed hints that hyperscaler spending could tighten at the margins if near-term returns from AI applications remain difficult to quantify,” said Emarketer analyst Jacob Bourne. “At the same time, US export restrictions are fueling domestic chipmaking in China.”Nvidia shares fell slightly more than 3 percent in after-market trading.- US takes a cut -Earlier this month, President Donald Trump confirmed that Nvidia would pay the United States 15 percent of its revenues from sales of certain AI chips to China. Trump called Nvidia’s H20 chips “obsolete,” despite their previous targeting under export restrictions.Beijing has responded by expressing national security concerns about Nvidia chips and urging Chinese businesses to rely on local semiconductor suppliers instead.Nvidia developed the H20 specifically for export to China to address US concerns that its top-tier chips could be used for weapons development or AI applications in the rival nation.”There is interest in our H20s; we have supply ready to ship,” Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang said of the China market, which he estimated to be a $50 billion opportunity for Nvidia this year.”We’re still waiting on several of the geopolitical issues going back and forth between the governments and the companies trying to determine their purchases and what they want to do.”Huang said Nvidia is talking with the Trump administration about the importance of US companies being able to compete in China.”We just have to keep advocating the sensibility of, and the importance of, American tech companies to be able to lead and win the AI race and help make the American tech stack the global standard,” Huang said.- Fortune in play -The earnings report comes amid market worries about an AI spending bubble that could burst and hurt the chip giant’s fortunes. Nvidia serves as a bellwether for the AI market and became the first company to reach $4 trillion in market value last July.”We’re just seeing just enormous amount of interest in AI and demand for AI right now,” Huang said on an earnings call.The top four cloud computing service providers are on pace to spend about $600 billion on AI infrastructure this year, and it’s reasonable to think Nvidia is in line for a lot of that money, Huang reasoned.