Afp Business Asia

Asian stocks track latest Wall St rally as rate bets rise

Asian markets rose again Thursday to extend the week’s global rally as traders ramp up bets on a third successive US interest rate cut next month.With recent worries over stretched valuations appearing to be on the back burner for now, confidence continues to flow through trading floors, boosting riskier assets including bitcoin.Comments from a number of Federal Reserve officials and a string of weak jobs reports have combined to reinforce expectations that next month’s policy meeting will end with another reduction in borrowing costs.Meanwhile, the central bank’s “beige book” of economic conditions around the United States pointed to a growing divergence in consumption, with lower-income populations pulling back.”Overall consumer spending declined further, while higher-end retail spending remained resilient,” said the report, adding that some retailers felt a negative hit from the record-long government shutdown.Traders were little moved by data showing a drop in jobless claims, confounding forecasts for a small rise.Markets are now pricing in around an 80 percent chance of a cut on December 10 and a further three next year. That compares with just three reductions in total that Bloomberg said had been previously expected.All three main indexes on Wall Street pushed higher for a fourth straight day Wednesday, with markets there closed Thursday for Thanksgiving.Most of Asia took up the baton with glee.Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Seoul, Taipei and Jakarta all advanced, though Wellington and Manila struggled.The global gains come after markets took a hit this month on concerns that a tech-led surge in recent years may have been overdone and the vast sums invested in the AI sector will take some time to see returns.But those worries have for now been overshadowed by the prospect of lower rates — with the Fed focusing on the jobs market rather than worry about elevated inflation.Analysts also pointed to a wider range of firms pushing markets higher in the latest rally, with smaller cap companies benefiting from lower borrowing costs.And Pepperstone’s Chris Weston said Asia could see more gains.”While funds are well aware that US markets are closed in the upcoming session and most traders will also take Friday off, if Asia-based participants see a meaningful skew for further upside in US equity markets, it would make sense for them to get positioned for that risk,” he wrote in a note.Bitcoin, which last plunged to a seven-month low just above $80,000 amid the recent market swoon, broke back above $90,000 as risk appetite returned. However, it is still off the record high above $126.200 touched in early October.In corporate news, Tokyo-listed beer titan Asahi fell in the morning as it said it would delay its financial results owing to a cyberattack that began in September.The maker of Asahi Super Dry, one of Japan’s most popular beers, announced it was experiencing system troubles on September 29, stopping its ability to receive orders and to ship products. It blamed a ransomware attack.Meanwhile, South Korea’s largest crypto exchange is set to be acquired, pending board approval on Thursday, by one of the country’s top tech giants. Naver Financial said Wednesday it will buy Dunamu, the operator of Upbit, in a deal valued at more than $13 billion.  Upbit is world’s fourth largest crypto exchange in terms of trading volume. – Key figures at around 0215 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.3 percent at 50,203.38 (break) Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.1 percent at 25,944.71Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.4 percent at 3,879.12Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1611 from $1.1598 on WednesdayPound/dollar: UP at $1.3256 from $1.3239Dollar/yen: DOWN at 156.08 yen from 156.42 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 87.58 pence from 87.60 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.6 percent at $58.33 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.5 percent at $62.80 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.7 percent at 47,427.12 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.9 percent at 9,691.58 (close)

High-flying tech hits potholes in India’s Silicon Valley

In India’s tech capital Bengaluru, the morning “rush hour” lasts so long it devours half the workday, throttling productivity in a city often viewed as the poster child of a booming economy.Entrepreneur RK Misra, co-founder of a multimillion-dollar start-up, avoids scheduling in-person meetings until nearly noon — then squeezes them in before gridlock returns.The “situation is pretty bad. And it hurts by not being able to plan your day”, Misra said, describing his gruelling 16-kilometre (nine mile) commute, which can take up to two hours at peak times.”It also discourages people from doing anything other than work, because there’s no work-life balance any more.”Bengaluru, home to nearly 12 million people and state capital of Karnataka, is the “Silicon Valley” of the world’s fifth biggest economy — hosting thousands of start-ups, outsourcing firms, and global tech giants from Google to Microsoft.Yet its flagship Outer Ring Road (ORR) business district is clogged with traffic, pocked with potholes, and often flooded during the monsoon. Water shortages plague the summer months.The roughly 20-kilometre (12-mile) ORR corridor, lined with swanky tech parks, hosts dozens of Fortune 500 offices, and more than a million employees.Frustration boiled over in September when Rajesh Yabaji, CEO of digital trucking logistics platform BlackBuck, announced he was moving his company out of ORR.Yabaji said he snapped after the “average commute for my colleagues shot up to 1.5+ hours (one way)”, he wrote on social media, adding that the roads were “full of potholes and dust, coupled with lowest intent to get them rectified”.- ‘Now or never’ -Pharma tycoon Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw, founder of Biocon, chimed in.”I had an overseas business visitor to Biocon Park who said; ‘Why are the roads so bad and why is there so much garbage around? Doesn’t the government want to support investment?” she wrote on social media.Bengaluru had the world’s third-slowest traffic in 2024, according to the TomTom Traffic Index — far worse than San Francisco or London.Manas Das, of the Outer Ring Road Companies Association, works with city authorities to resolve infrastructure woes for global tech companies.”Companies would like to get the basics right — and today those basics are getting compromised,” Das said.BS Prahallad, technical director of the government-backed Bengaluru Smart Infrastructure Limited, set up to manage major projects, said an average resident needed 90-100 minutes to cover 16 kilometres.”Something has to be done, now or never,” he told AFP.”The next step is, we will decay.”Karnataka deputy chief minister DK Shivakumar wrote last month on X that “10000+ potholes” had been identified, with half fixed so far.”Instead of tearing Bengaluru down, let’s build it up — together,” he said.”The world sees India through Bengaluru, and we owe it to our city to rise united!”Borrowing a page from London’s playbook, authorities have also decided to split the municipal corporation into five smaller bodies and set up an overarching Greater Bengaluru Authority.Shivakumar said this move would “transform the way Bengaluru is planned and governed”.- ‘Choking on pollution’ -The southern Indian city was not always an overrun metropolis. Once part of the erstwhile princely state of Mysore, it was known as “garden city” or a “pensioner’s paradise”. India’s software boom kicked off in the 1990s, with outsourcing companies striking gold.Waves of investment since then from Silicon Valley companies and start-ups helped quadruple the state’s software exports from 2014 to 2024 to $46 billion.Venture capitalist TV Mohandas Pai, former chief financial officer of Indian IT giant Infosys, said the city’s infrastructure was “possibly three to five years behind”.Rapid expansion clogged waterways, cut trees, and filled wetlands, straining the infrastructure, ecologist Harini Nagendra said.”We have flooding because water has no place to go, drought because the water is not infiltrating into the ground,” she said.”People are choking on pollution, choking on the concrete — and all the dust that comes with the construction, traffic, smog, heatwaves,” she added.Nearly half the city depends on boreholes that run dry in summer, while the rest rely on costly water trucked in — a problem set to worsen with climate change, according to the Water, Environment, Land and Livelihoods (WELL) Labs research centre.Pai, 67, remains optimistic.  “The future is going to be bright, but there is going to be pain,” he said.  “We are suffering the pangs of growth because India knows how to handle poverty, not prosperity.”

Japan beer giant Asahi delays earnings due to cyberattack

Japanese beer giant Asahi said Thursday it has delayed the release of full-year financial results due to a major ongoing cyberattack that began in late September.”While the Company is making every effort to restore the system as quickly as possible, it has decided to postpone the announcement of financial results for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025,” Asahi said in a statement.”Regarding product supply, shipments are resuming in stages as system recovery progresses. We apologize for the continued inconvenience and appreciate your understanding,” said CEO Atsushi Katsuki.The maker of Asahi Super Dry, one of Japan’s most popular beers, said on September 29 that it was hit by a ransomware attack, becoming the latest high-profile global company to be targeted.A ransomware attack is when online actors use malicious software to lock or encrypt a victim’s systems and then demands payment for restoring their functions.The company has not disclosed the identity or the demands of the attacker.But hacker group Qilin, believed to be based in Russia, issued a statement that Japanese media interpreted as a claim of responsibility.Other global brands have also recently experienced similar attacks.Indian-owned Jaguar Land Rover was forced to seek emergency funding after a damaging cyberattack halted operations at its UK factories.Japanese retailer Muji said in October that it had stopped its domestic online shopping service after a ransomware attack on delivery partner Askul.A survey released in June has found that a third of Japanese businesses have experienced cyberattacks of some sort. 

US stocks rise for 3rd straight day while British pound advances

Global stocks mostly rose Wednesday, with Wall Street equities gaining on hopes of lower interest rates, while the British pound advanced on the government’s unveiling of a new budget.US equities rose for a third straight day as momentum builds following comments in recent days from Federal Reserve officials signaling another potential interest rate cut next month.”It’s hard to ignore that the dramatic shifts in rate-cut hopes have been the dominant market driver in recent weeks,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.All three major US indices climbed again, led by the tech-rich Nasdaq, which rose 0.8 percent.Jack Ablin of Cresset Capital Management said the market could drift higher still if rate-cut expectations firm further.Gains by small capitalization companies and so-called “value” stocks are signs of a “healthy rotation out of the very narrow mega-cap tech stocks into a broader set of companies that will benefit from lower financing costs,” Ablin said.Analysts also cited speculation that Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, could be President Donald Trump’s next Fed Chief as supportive of markets because of expectations Hassett would cut interest rates further.Meanwhile, the Fed’s “beige book” of economic conditions around the United States pointed to a growing divergence in consumption, with lower-income populations pulling back.”Overall consumer spending declined further, while higher-end retail spending remained resilient,” said the report, adding that some retailers felt a negative hit from the record-long government shutdown.In Europe, London stocks advanced and the pound pushed higher as the center-left Labour government delivered a tax-raising budget aimed at curbing debt and funding public services.The yield on UK 10-year government bonds dipped, a sign that investors retained confidence in finance minister Rachel Reeves having control over public finances. Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said market reaction suggested Reeves had “passed a major hurdle” and that her measures “have fiscal credence with investors for now.”Paris and Frankfurt stocks also gained, supported by hopes of progress toward the end of Russia’s war in Ukraine.”Now, nothing is signed yet — there’s still a lot of negotiation left — but markets have started to price in this deal, which is why both the euro and European stocks have rallied,” said Forex.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada.Russia said Wednesday that ongoing talks to end the war in Ukraine were “serious,” after earlier welcoming parts of a new US plan to halt the deadliest fighting in Europe since World War II.A deal was still a long way off, Russian officials warned, with US President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff due in Moscow next week for further talks.But the negotiations were “ongoing, the process is serious,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in televised comments.- Key figures at around 2120 GMT -New York – Dow: UP 0.7 percent at 47,427.12 (close)New York – S&P 500: UP 0.7 percent at 6,812.61 (close)New York – Nasdaq Composite: UP 0.8 percent at 23,214.69 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.9 percent at 9,691.58 (close)Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.9 percent at 8,096.43 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: UP 1.1 percent at 23,726.22 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.9 percent at 49,559.07 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.1 percent at 25,928.08 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 3,864.18 (close)Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1598 from $1.1570 on TuesdayPound/dollar: UP at $1.3239 from $1.3166Dollar/yen: UP at 156.42 yen from 156.05 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 87.60 pence from 87.88 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 1.0 percent at $63.13 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 1.2 percent at $58.65 per barrelburs-jmb/ksb

Stocks extend gains on US rate cut hopes

Global stocks pushed higher on Wednesday as investors saw an increasing likelihood of another US interest rate cut next month.Crude prices steadied after falling sharply Tuesday on speculation that a Ukraine peace deal could see Russia allowed to export vastly more oil.Wall Street’s three main indices pushed higher, coming off strong gains the previous day on downbeat economic data that reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month.Risk appetite was further boosted by a report that US President Donald Trump’s top economic aide was the frontrunner to become the Federal Reserve’s next boss. Kevin Hassett is a close ally of the president and Bloomberg reported that he was someone who would back Trump’s calls for more rate cuts.”It’s hard to ignore that the dramatic shifts in rate cut hopes have been the dominant market driver in recent weeks,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.Expectations for a December rate cut surged this week after several Fed officials said they backed a third straight reduction, citing labour market weakness despite stubborn inflation. Data released Wednesday showed that first-time unemployment claims dipped last week in the United States to 216,000, and came in lower than expected by analysts. “Today’s data, while a headwind of sorts for rate-cut expectations, has been a tailwind for the view that the economy can avoid a recession,” said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare.In Europe, London stocks advanced and the pound pushed higher as the centre-left Labour government delivered a tax-raising budget aimed at curbing debt and funding public services.Meanwhile, the yield on UK 10-year government bonds dipped, a sign that investors retained confidence in finance minister Rachel Reeves having control over public finances. Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said market reaction suggested Reeves had “passed a major hurdle” and that her measures “have fiscal credence with investors for now”.Paris and Frankfurt stocks also gained, supported by hopes of progress toward the end of Russia’s war in Ukraine.”Now, nothing is signed yet — there’s still a lot of negotiation left — but markets have started to price in this deal, which is why both the euro and European stocks have rallied,” said Forex.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada.US envoy Steve Witkoff will visit Moscow next week to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin as Washington presses on with negotiations to end the war.Asia stocks were also up, gains that came after a pullback on trading floors for much of November owing to worries about lofty valuations, particularly of tech firms.- Key figures at around 1630 GMT -New York – Dow: UP 0.8 percent at 47,468.06 pointsNew York – S&P 500: UP 0.8 percent at 6,820.68New York – Nasdaq Composite: UP 0.9 percent at 23,237.84London – FTSE 100: UP 0.9 percent at 9,691.58 (close)Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.9 percent at 8,096.43 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: UP 1.1 percent at 23,726.22 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.9 percent at 49,559.07 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.1 percent at 25,928.08 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 3,864.18 (close)Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1601 from $1.1570 on TuesdayPound/dollar: UP at $1.3233 from $1.3165Dollar/yen: UP at 156.34 yen from 155.97 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 87.67 pence from 87.86 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.1 percent at $61.86 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.1 percent at $58.01 per barrelburs-rl/jxb

Taiwan’s president to propose $40 bn in extra defence spending

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te said Wednesday his government will propose $40 billion in additional defence spending over eight years, as the democratic island seeks to deter a potential Chinese invasion.Taiwan has ramped up defence spending in the past decade as Chinese military pressure intensified, but US President Donald Trump’s administration has pushed the island to do more to protect itself.Lai said the military aimed to have a “high level” of joint combat readiness against China by 2027 — which US officials have previously cited as a possible timeline for a Chinese attack on the island.”The ultimate goal is to establish defence capabilities that can permanently safeguard democratic Taiwan,” Lai said at a news conference, after announcing the $40 billion spending plan in a Washington Post opinion piece.Communist China has never ruled Taiwan, but Beijing claims the island is part of its territory and has threatened to use force to annex it.China’s foreign ministry warned Wednesday that Taiwan’s “attempts to resist unification and seek independence through military means will never succeed”.Lai’s announcement came as Tokyo and Beijing were locked in a weeks-long diplomatic spat that followed remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting Japan could intervene militarily in any attack on Taiwan.The United States’ top envoy in Taiwan said he “welcomes” the government’s spending plan and urged the island’s rival political parties to “find common ground” on boosting its defences.”Whether your priority is preserving Taiwan’s democracy and market economy, fostering conditions for cross-Strait dialogue, or maintaining support from the international community, increasing Taiwan’s defence capabilities is a necessary precondition,” said Raymond Greene, director of the American Institute in Taiwan, Washington’s de facto embassy.Lai said the extra spending would go towards new arms purchases from the United States and enhancing Taiwan’s ability to wage asymmetrical warfare.He said the purchases are not tied to Taiwan’s ongoing tariff negotiations with the United States, insisting the main goal was to “demonstrate Taiwan’s determination to defend” itself.”We aim to bolster deterrence by inserting greater costs and uncertainties into Beijing’s decision-making on the use of force,” Lai said in the Washington Post.His comments also follow US approval this month for $330 million-worth of parts and components.Lai’s government may struggle to get the proposed spending approved by parliament, where the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, which advocates closer ties with China, controls the purse strings with the help of the Taiwan People’s Party.KMT chairperson Cheng Li-wun, whose recent election to the party’s highest post was marred by allegations of Chinese interference, has previously opposed Lai’s defence spending plans.Cheng warned Lai on Wednseday he was “playing with fire” and risked turning the Taiwan Strait into a “powder keg”.- ‘Freedom is not a free lunch’ -Lai, who leads the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), previously planned to boost annual defence spending to five percent by 2030.The government has also proposed to raise defence spending to NT$949.5 billion ($30 billion), or 3.32 percent of GDP, next year.The additional spending plan announced Wednesday would be spread over eight years and exceeds the $32 billion previously revealed to AFP by a senior DPP lawmaker.Lai said the funds would be used to develop the so-called “T-Dome” — a multi-layered air defence system — aimed at protecting Taiwanese combat forces, critical infrastructure and civilian buildings from Chinese missiles.Long-range precision strike missiles, counter-drone systems and anti-ballistic missiles are among the list of items for purchase, the defence ministry said.Su Tzu-yun, a military expert at Taipei’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said the spending plan is “what Taiwan requires”.”Freedom is not a free lunch,” Su told AFP.But KMT lawmaker Ma Wen-chun said bolstering national defence was “not about shouting slogans or simply buying more weapons”.Recruiting and retaining more troops was a “far more urgent and important issue” for the military, Ma said.”In the future we may face a situation where there are no personnel left to operate these weapons.”

Stocks extend global rally as data boost rate cut hopes

Asia and Europe extended a global equities rally Wednesday after another round of tepid US data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month.A report that US President Donald Trump’s top economic aide was the frontrunner to be the central bank’s next boss added to the risk-on mood as investors rediscovered their mojo after a recent stutter.Bets that officials will lower borrowing costs at their December meeting have surged this week after a number of key members of the policy board said they backed a third successive cut as fears about the labour market overshadowed still-high inflation.And a fresh batch of reports on the world’s top economy  — some delayed by the government shutdown — provided fresh ammunition to those calling for more easing.Payroll firm ADP said the four weeks to November 8 saw private employers shed an average 13,500 jobs per week, while official figures showed retail sales rose slower in September than August and less than expected. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to its lowest level in seven months, with shoppers expressing greater worry about labour market conditions and the outlook for household incomes.Analysts said the reading was particularly a concern ahead of the holiday spending period.The Labor Department also said wholesale inflation picked up in September but in line with forecasts.However, the rise was driven by a big jump in goods prices, highlighting the steeper costs that businesses face.”The shutdown backlog released an avalanche of extremely stale prints: ADP soft, retail sales weaker, Core PPI tame, Richmond Fed grim, consumer confidence dismal,” wrote Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.”None of it is current, none of it is forward-looking. But in a market starving for macro inputs, even freezer-burnt data tastes dovish. Goldman’s economists shaved third-quarter GDP tracking to 3.7 percent, reinforcing the narrative that growth is cooling right into the December (policy board) window.”The chances of a more dovish Fed were also given a boost after Bloomberg reported that Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, was considered the leading candidate to take the top job at the Fed when Jerome Powell’s term ends next year.Hassett is a close ally of the president and Bloomberg said he was seen as someone who would back rate-cut calls by Trump, who has regularly slammed Powell for not taking such action early enough.”Hassett is viewed as closely aligned with President Trump’s preference for lower interest rates, and his appointment would likely reinforce the administration’s push for easier policy,” said National Australia Bank’s Rodrigo Catril.Wall Street’s three main indexes enjoyed a third day of healthy gains, and most of Asia and Europe followed suit.Seoul jumped more than two percent, while Tokyo was up 1.9 percent with Taipei. Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore, Mumbai and Wellington also chalked up healthy advances. But Shanghai, Jakarta and Bangkok dipped.London, Paris and Frankfurt rose at the open.The gains come after a pullback on trading floors for much of November owing to worries about lofty valuations, particularly among tech firms, with some questioning the wisdom of the vast sums of cash invested in the artificial intelligence sector.In corporate news, Chinese ecommerce titan Alibaba dropped more than one percent after reporting a fall in profit linked to consumer subsidies and the building of data centres to deal with its AI ambitions.- Key figures at around 0815 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.9 percent at 49,559.07 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.1 percent at 25,928.08 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 3,864.18 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.2 percent at 9,626.25 Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1580 from $1.1570 on TuesdayPound/dollar: UP at $1.3180 from $1.3165Dollar/yen: UP at 156.41 yen from 155.97 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 87.85 pence from 87.86 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.1 percent at $57.91 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.1 percent at $62.44 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 1.4 percent at 47,112.45 (close) 

China likely to bid on building new Panama Canal ports

China is among parties interested in bidding to build two new ports on the Panama Canal, its administrator said Tuesday, despite US talk of retaking control of the vital trade route.US President Donald Trump made the threat earlier this year, alleging that China controls the strategic waterway because Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings operates existing ports at either end — Cristobal on the Atlantic, and Balboa on the Pacific.The firm agreed in March to transfer control of both ports to a conglomerate led by US-based BlackRock, but the deal — viewed with suspicion by China — has not been finalized.  The Central American country is hoping to attract $8.5 billion in investment over the next decade to expand port capacity, and to build a gas pipeline and a new reservoir, among other projects.In addition to new ports, the project envisions the construction of a gas pipeline and a new reservoir.”We have to be open to participation of all interested parties,” and solicit “the broadest possible competition,” canal administrator Ricaurte Vasquez told journalists. He said all parties would bid on an equal footing.He declined to speculate about a possible increase in tensions with the United States if the projects were awarded to Chinese firms in the future.The Panama Canal Authority, which has begun meeting with interested parties ahead of the bidding process, plans to award contracts for the two terminals in late 2026 and begin operations in 2029.Hong Kong’s Cosco Shipping Ports and Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL) are among international players that have expressed interest — along with Singapore’s PSA International, Taiwan’s Evergreen, German Hapag Lloyd, Denmark’s Maersk and France’s CMA Terminals.Panama’s five main ports are all located near the canal and are operated by concessionaires from the United States, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore.The 80-kilometer canal is used mainly by the United States and China and carries five percent of the world’s maritime trade.The United States built and operated the Panama Canal for a century before handing control to Panama on the last day of 1999.

Asian stocks extend global rally as data boost rate cut hopes

Asia extended a global equities rally Wednesday after another round of tepid US data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month.A report that US President Donald Trump’s top economic aide was the frontrunner to be the central bank’s next boss added to the risk-on mood as investors rediscovered their mojo after a recent stutter.Bets that officials will lower borrowing costs at their December meeting have surged this week after a number of key members of the policy board said they backed a third successive cut as fears about the labour market overshadowed still-high inflation.And a fresh batch of reports on the world’s top economy  — some delayed by the government shutdown — provided fresh ammunition to those calling for more easing.Payroll firm ADP said the four weeks to November 8 saw private employers shed an average 13,500 jobs per week, while official figures showed retail sales rose slower in September than August and less than expected. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to its lowest level in seven months, with shoppers expressing greater worry about labour market conditions and the outlook for household incomes.Analysts said the reading was particularly a concern ahead of the holiday spending period.The Labor Department also said wholesale inflation picked up in September but in line with forecasts.However, the rise was driven by a big jump in goods prices, highlighting the steeper costs that businesses face.”The shutdown backlog released an avalanche of extremely stale prints: ADP soft, retail sales weaker, Core PPI tame, Richmond Fed grim, consumer confidence dismal,” wrote Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.”None of it is current, none of it is forward-looking. But in a market starving for macro inputs, even freezer-burnt data tastes dovish. Goldman’s economists shaved third-quarter GDP tracking to 3.7 percent, reinforcing the narrative that growth is cooling right into the December (policy board) window.”The chances of a more dovish Fed were also given a boost after Bloomberg reported that Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, was considered the leading candidate to take the lead at the Fed when Jerome Powell’s term ends next year. Hassett is a close ally of the president and Bloomberg said he was seen as someone who would back rate-cut calls by Trump, who has regularly slammed Powell for not taking such action early enough. “Hassett is viewed as closely aligned with President Trump’s preference for lower interest rates, and his appointment would likely reinforce the administration’s push for easier policy,” said National Australia Bank’s Rodrigo Catril.Wall Street’s three main indexes enjoyed a third day of healthy gains, and Asia again followed suit.Tokyo and Seoul gained around two percent, while Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Taipei and Wellington also chalked up healthy advances.The gains come after a pullback on trading floors for much of November owing to worries about lofty valuations, particularly among tech firms, with some questioning the wisdom of the vast sums of cash invested in the artificial intelligence sector.In corporate news, Chinese ecommerce titan Alibaba dropped more than one percent after reporting a fall in profit linked to consumer subsidies and the building of data centres to deal with its AI ambitions.- Key figures at around 0230 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.9 percent at 49,605.57 (break)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.6 percent at 26,054.70Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.2 percent at 3,876.05Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1583 from $1.1570 on TuesdayPound/dollar: UP at $1.3191 from $1.3165Dollar/yen: DOWN at 155.82 yen from 155.97 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 87.81 pence from 87.86 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.2 percent at $58.06 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.2 percent at $62.62 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 1.4 percent at 47,112.45 (close) London – FTSE 100: UP 0.8 percent at 9,609.53 (close)

How China leveraged its rare earths dominance over the US

China’s stranglehold on the rare earths industry — from natural reserves and mining through processing and innovation — is the result of a decades-long drive, now giving Beijing crucial leverage in its trade war with the United States.The 17 key elements will play a vital role in the global economy in coming years, as analysts warn that plans to secure alternative supply chains by Western governments could take years to bear fruit.Rare earths are crucial for the defence sector — used in fighter jets, missile guidance systems and radar technology — while also having a range of uses in everyday products including smartphones, medical equipment and automobiles.Visited this month by AFP, the southeastern mining region of Ganzhou — which specialises in “heavy” rare earths including yttrium and terbium — was a hive of activity.Media access to the secretive industry is rarely granted in China, but despite near-constant surveillance by unidentified minders, AFP journalists saw dozens of trucks driving in and out of one rare earths mine, in addition to several bustling processing facilities.Sprawling new headquarters are being built in Ganzhou for China Rare Earth Group, one of the country’s two largest state-owned companies in the industry following years of consolidation directed by Beijing.Challenges this year have “paved the way for more countries to look into expanding rare earth metal production and processing”, Heron Lim, economics lecturer at ESSEC Business School, told AFP.”This investment could pay longer-term dividends,” he said.- Trade war -Sweeping export restrictions China imposed on the sector in early October sent shockwaves across global manufacturing sectors.The curbs raised alarm bells in Washington, which has been engaged in a renewed trade war with Beijing since President Donald Trump began his second term.At a high-stakes meeting in South Korea late last month, Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed to a one-year truce in a blistering tariff war between the world’s top two economies.The deal — which guarantees supply of rare earths and other critical minerals, at least temporarily — effectively neutralised the most punishing US measures and was widely seen as a victory for Beijing.”Rare earths are likely to remain at the centre of future Sino-US economic negotiations despite the tentative agreements thus far,” Heron Lim told AFP.”China has demonstrated its willingness to use more trade levers to keep the United States at the negotiating table,” he said.”The turbulence has created a challenging environment for producers that rely on various rare earth metals, as near-term supply is uncertain.”Washington and its allies are now racing to develop alternative mining and processing chains, but experts warn that process will take years.- Supremacy ceded -During the Cold War, the United States led the way in developing abilities to extract and process rare earths, with the Mountain Pass mine in California providing the bulk of global supplies.But as tensions with Moscow eased and the substantial environmental toll wrought by the rare earth industry gained prominence, the United States gradually offshored capacity in the 1980s and 1990s.Now, China controls most of global rare earths mining — around two thirds, by most estimates.It is already home to the world’s largest natural reserves of the elements of any country, according to geological surveys.And it has a near total monopoly on separation and refining, with analysis this year showing a share of around nine tenths of all global processing.Furthermore, a commanding lead in patents and strict export controls on processing technology solidify efforts by Beijing to prevent know-how from leaving the country.”The United States and the European Union are heavily reliant on imports of rare earth elements, underscoring significant risks to critical industries,” said Amelia Haines, commodities analyst at BMI, at a seminar this month.”This sustained risk is likely to catalyse a faster, broader pivot towards rare earth security,” she said.- Chasing alternatives -US defence authorities have in recent years directed large sums towards shoring up domestic production — part of efforts to achieve a “mine-to-magnet” supply chain by 2027.Washington has also been working with allies to develop extraction and processing alternatives to China.Trump signed a rare earths deal last month promising $8.5 billion in critical minerals projects with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia — its vast territory home to extensive rare earth resources.The US president also signed cooperation deals covering the critical minerals sector last month with Japan, Malaysia and Thailand.Despite the flurry of activity and headlines this year, Washington has been aware of its rare earths problem for years.In 2010, a maritime territorial dispute with Tokyo prompted Beijing to suspend shipments of the minerals to Japan — the first major incident highlighting geopolitical ramifications of China’s control over the sector.The episode sparked calls by the administration of then-president Barack Obama to shore up US domestic resilience in the strategic field.But 15 years later, China remains the chief rare earths power.