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Iran has vowed to retaliate for US air strikes on its nuclear facilities, and has two main options: attacking American forces in the region, and closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz.An advisor to Iran’s supreme leader issued a warning on Sunday, saying any US base in the region that takes part in attacks is a “legitimate target”.Disrupting traffic through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for oil and gas, would send energy prices soaring in a global inflationary shock.Closing the waterway would be “extremely dangerous”, Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s top diplomat, said on Monday.AFP looks at the two scenarios and their possible implications.- Strait of Hormuz -The narrow, U-shaped seaway snaking between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula is the gateway for Gulf energy shipments to global markets, carrying one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas exports.Closing the 50-kilometre (30-mile) wide channel could spike oil to $120 a barrel, according to Deutsche Bank research, raising prices of transport, food and utilities around the world.”It’s in the best interest of all Middle Eastern countries to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and prevent any supply disruption,” Rystad Energy senior analyst Lu Ming Pang wrote last week.Currently, traders do not appear too concerned. Brent crude was trading at $76 on Monday, marginally changed from Friday’s close.”Looking at the oil price this morning, it is clear that the oil market doesn’t assign a very high probability of (a closure) happening,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB bank.The big question is whether Iran is prepared to detonate this economic hand-grenade. Despite threats in the past, including in 2011 as oil sanctions loomed, it has not pulled the pin.According to a senior European official, the Iranians do not have the means to block the strait “long-term”, but they could hamper shipping.But “it would be a form of suicide to do that,” the official said.”The effect on Israel would be close to zero, the effect on themselves immense, as well as on the United States, Europe and China.”Iranian forces have nearly 200 fast patrol boats that can fire anti-ship missiles or torpedoes, plus mine-laying vessels, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.But the US Fifth Fleet, a major naval force, is stationed across the Gulf in Bahrain, and Iran remains under daily fire from Israeli warplanes and drones.Iran’s own energy exports, in spite of sanctions, remain an important source of income for the world’s ninth-biggest oil-producing country.- US bases -With United States military bases spread around the Gulf countries to Iran’s west, there is no shortage of potential targets.Kuwait, in a legacy of the 1990 Gulf war, houses about 13,500 US forces, while the biggest US base in the region is Al Udeid in Qatar.The US Fifth Fleet, covering the Gulf, Red Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean, is based in Bahrain, and about 3,500 US personnel are stationed at Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates.In Iraq, US troops are deployed in various installations, including the Al-Asad and Arbil air bases, as part of an anti-jihadist coalition. Iran-backed Iraqi armed factions have threatened Washington’s interests should it join Israel’s campaign, having targeted them in previous years.Increased US involvement in the Iran-Israel war risks attacks “on US interests, US bases and such across the region”, said Renad Mansour, senior research fellow at Chatham House.”The US attack on Iran has now meant that this war is between Israel, the United States and Iran, which means that across the region, Iran may seek to target the US,” he added.However, this option is also fraught for Iran as it risks isolating itself from the powerful Gulf monarchies that enjoy good relations with Washington.”Tehran is unlikely to strike Gulf Arab states,” said Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King’s College London.”Even as it sees the UAE and Saudi Arabia as quiet enablers of the US-Israeli axis, Iran understands that any attack on their soil would likely unify them against it and open the door for greater American military presence.”Instead, Iran may issue veiled warnings to these states, use regional proxies to pressure them, or engage in cyber or intelligence disruptions targeting their interests — maintaining plausible deniability while raising the cost of involvement.” 

After President Donald Trump bragged US strikes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities, officials cautioned it was still too soon to assess the impact on the country’s nuclear programme.Many questions remain after Sunday’s strikes, especially about the whereabouts of Iran’s sensitive stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent — a short step from the 90 percent required for a nuclear weapon.- Where is Iran’s enriched uranium? -The US attacks, carried out by B-2 stealth bombers, targeted three Iranian nuclear sites: Isfahan and Iran’s main enrichment plants in Fordo and Natanz.While significant damage has been reported, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has voiced concern about Iran’s stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium.Tehran has an estimated 408.6 kilogrammes of uranium enriched to 60 percent, according to the UN nuclear watchdog, whose inspectors last saw that stockpile on June 10.That material, if further refined, would theoretically be sufficient to produce more than nine nuclear bombs.IAEA head Rafael Grossi on Monday demanded access to Iran’s nuclear sites, saying the agency needs to “account for” the uranium stockpile.Concerns about the fate of the sensitive stockpile have loomed large. On June 13, the day Israel began its Iran offensive, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi sent a letter to the IAEA, announcing the implementation of “special measures to protect nuclear equipment and material”.Days before the US attacked, satellite imagery showed vehicles near Fordo’s entrance.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had “interesting intelligence” on the matter, declining to elaborate.Israel announced Monday it had carried out strikes to block access routes to Fordo.”It will be difficult if not impossible to track down all of Iran’s 60 percent enriched uranium, stored in small canisters that are easily transportable by car,” Kelsey Davenport, an expert with the Arms Control Association, told AFP.”They (Iranians) no longer have the capacity to turn that stockpile of highly enriched uranium to weapons-grade uranium, and that was really the goal there,” US Vice President JD Vance told ABC News.He added the Trump administration would deal with the uranium “in the coming weeks”.- Can Iran still make a nuclear bomb? -Analysts have been treading carefully when addressing this issue.Before the attacks, Iran had about 22,000 centrifuges — the machines used to enrich uranium. Many of them were damaged when Natanz was hit, the IAEA head said.Grossi also said “very significant damage” is expected to have occurred at Fordo, “given the explosive payload utilised and the extreme vibration-sensitive nature of centrifuges”.Experts however say that it is unclear how many centrifuges Iran has, with some of them believed to be stored at unknown locations.With “60 percent enriched uranium and a few hundred advanced centrifuges, Iran still has the capability to weaponise, and now there is more political impetus to dash for a bomb”, said Davenport.- What are the proliferation risks? -Before the conflict, the IAEA said it had “no indication” of the existence of a “systematic programme” in Iran to produce a nuclear weapon. But without access to nuclear sites, the agency no longer has oversight.Grossi warned Monday that the “global non-proliferation regime that has underpinned international security… could crumble and fall”, urging parties to return to diplomacy.Iran ratified the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) in 1970, committing it to declare its nuclear material to the IAEA. But it has recently begun preparing the grounds for a possible withdrawal from the treaty, accusing the agency of acting as a “partner” in Israel’s “war of aggression”.Reza Najafi, Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA, said Monday the “unlawful act of aggression” by the United States had “delivered a fundamental and irreparable blow” to the non-proliferation regime.”I do think there is a major risk that Iran withdraws from the NPT and expels inspectors, or simply does not provide them with access to key sites,” said Eric Brewer of the US research institute Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI).He added that Iran could also “over time, build (a) covert” programme like North Korea, which withdrew from the NPT in 2003 and went on to become a nuclear-armed power.

Israel hit Revolutionary Guard sites and Evin prison in Tehran on the 11th day of the war Monday, in what it said were its most powerful strikes yet on the Iranian capital.Iran, in turn, fired missile barrages at Israel and vowed retaliation against the United States after American strikes on the Islamic republic’s nuclear sites a day earlier.Loud explosions rocked Tehran, where Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said the military hit sites with “unprecedented force”, adding to speculation that it is seeking to topple Iran’s clerical leadership.The targets included Evin prison, which Katz said “holds political prisoners and regime opponents”, as well as command centres for the domestic Basij paramilitary and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.Iranian media and the Israeli military said Israel also struck Fordo, a key nuclear enrichment facility buried deep in the mountains south of Tehran.The military said it had struck Fordo on Monday “in order to obstruct access routes” to the site, which Israel’s ally the United States hit the previous day with massive bunker buster bombs.- ‘Obliterated’ -President Donald Trump boasted that Sunday’s US strikes on three key sites had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities, but other officials said it was too soon to assess the impact on Iran’s atomic programme, which Israel and some Western states consider an unacceptable threat.Sirens sounded across Israel on Monday and AFP journalists reported blasts over Jerusalem and people fleeing to shelters in Tel Aviv.Iranian media said Israel’s strikes hit a power supply system in Tehran, triggering temporary outages.In Israel, the national electricity company reported “damage near a strategic infrastructure facility” in the south that disrupted the power supply, without naming the location or specifying the cause.Israel’s military censorship rules bar the publication of some details about damage in Israel.Israeli strikes on Iran have killed more than 400 people, Iran’s health ministry has said. Iran’s attacks on Israel have killed 24 people, according to official figures.- ‘Extremely dangerous’ -After the US strikes, global markets reacted nervously, with oil prices jumping more than four percent early Monday but dipping later in the day.China urged both Iran and Israel to prevent the conflict from spilling over, warning of potential economic fallout.Iranian armed forces chief Abdolrahim Mousavi said in a video statement published on state TV that Washington’s bombing “will not go unanswered”.”We will take firm action against the American mistake,” he added.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on China to help deter Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.The European Union’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said closing the strategic strait would be “extremely dangerous”.With Iran threatening US bases in the region, the State Department issued a worldwide alert cautioning Americans abroad.In Bahrain, home to a major US naval base, the US embassy said it had “temporarily shifted a portion of its employees to local telework”, citing “heightened regional tensions”.Meanwhile, international oil firms including BP and Total evacuated some of their foreign staff from southern Iraq, the state-owned Basra Oil Company said.- Trump touts ‘regime change’ -After the Pentagon stressed the goal of US intervention was not to topple the Iranian government, Trump openly toyed with the idea.”If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change???” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform.His press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday that Trump was “still interested and engaging in” diplomacy.She suggested, however, that Iranians could overthrow their government if it did not agree to a diplomatic solution.At a Pentagon press briefing, top US general Dan Caine said “initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage”.Speaking ahead of a NATO summit this week, the alliance’s chief Mark Rutte said Tehran should not be allowed a nuclear weapon, calling it his “greatest fear”, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said “there is no reason to criticise what America did”.Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council that craters were visible at the Fordo facility, but it had not been possible to assess the underground damage.”Armed attacks on nuclear facilities should never take place,” he added.Iran has consistently denied seeking an atomic bomb, and Grossi has said there was no evidence to suggest it was doing so despite the Islamic republic being the only non-nuclear armed state to enrich uranium to 60 percent.The IAEA said on Monday that Tehran had informed it of “special measures to protect nuclear material” when the Israeli campaign began.The UN agency also said it was seeking access to Iranian nuclear sites to “account for” stockpiles of highly enriched uranium.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, had accused the United States and Israel of deciding to “blow up” nuclear diplomacy with their attacks.burs-ami-dcp/smw

Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa vowed Monday that those involved in a “heinous” suicide attack on a Damascus church would face justice, as he called for unity in the diverse, multi-faith country.The shooting and suicide bombing Sunday at the church in the working-class Dwelaa district of the Syrian capital killed 25 people and wounded 63, the health ministry said.The Islamist authorities who took power after ousting longtime ruler Bashar al-Assad in December said the attacker was affiliated with the Islamic State group, which has not yet claimed the attack.”We promise… that we will work night and day, mobilising all our specialised security agencies, to capture all those who participated in and planned this heinous crime and bring them to justice,” interim President Sharaa said in a statement.The attack follows incidents of sectarian violence in recent months, with security one of the greatest challenges for the new authorities.The attack “reminds us of the importance of solidarity, and unity of the government and the people in facing all that threatens our nation’s security and stability”, Sharaa said.Interior Minister Anas Khattab and intelligence services chief Hussein al-Salameh held an emergency meeting to discuss the investigations, the ministry said in a statement.The attack was the first suicide bombing in a church in Syria since the country’s civil war erupted in 2011, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitor.It was also the first attack of its kind in the Syrian capital since Assad’s ouster.A prayer service at the church is scheduled for 6:00 pm (1500 GMT).- Foreign condemnation -Since the new authorities took power, the international community has repeatedly urged them to protect minorities and ensure their participation in Syria’s transition, particularly after the recent violence.Interior ministry spokesman Noureddine al-Baba said Sunday that “the security of places of worship is a red line, and all efforts will be made to ensure people’s freedom to perform their religious rites”.IS “aims to sow sectarian division and incite all components of Syrian society to take up arms, seeking to show that the Syrian state is unable to protect its communities and citizens”, he told a press conference.The top cleric of Syria’s Sunni Muslim majority, Grand Mufti Osama al-Rifai, condemned acts of violence and terrorism in a statement Monday.”We express our complete rejection of targeting places of worship and terrorising believers,” he said.Foreign condemnation of the attack continued to roll in on Monday.President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey would not allow extremists to drag Syria back into chaos and instability, vowing that Turkey would “continue to support the Syrian government’s fight against terrorism”.Turkey, which is close to the new authorities, has repeatedly offered its operational and military support to fight IS and other militant threats. French President Emmanuel Macron also denounced the “horrible” attack, while the EU said it “stands in solidarity” with Syria in combating ethnic and religious violence.”It is a grave reminder of the need to intensify efforts against the terrorist threat and to ensure the enduring defeat of Daesh and other terrorist organisations,” spokesperson Anouar El Anouni said, using another name for IS.Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis expressed anger after the attack on the Greek Orthodox Church, calling on the new authorities “to take concrete measures to protect all ethnic and religious minorities”.Syria’s Christian community has shrunk from around one million before the war to fewer than 300,000 due to waves of displacement and emigration.IS seized large swathes of Syrian and Iraqi territory in the early years of the civil war, declaring a cross-border “caliphate” in 2014.The jihadists were territorially defeated in Syria 2019 but have maintained a presence, particularly in the country’s vast desert.

Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa vowed Monday that those involved in a “heinous” suicide attack on a Damascus church a day earlier would face justice, calling for unity in the country.The shooting and suicide bombing Sunday at the church in the working-class Dwelaa district of the Syrian capital killed 25 people and wounded 63, the health ministry said, raising an earlier toll of 22 killed.The authorities said the attacker was affiliated with the Islamic State group.”We promise… that we will work night and day, mobilising all our specialised security agencies, to capture all those who participated in and planned this heinous crime and to bring them to justice,” Sharaa said in a statement.The attack “reminds us of the importance of solidarity and unity of the government and the people in facing all that threatens our nation’s security and stability”, he added.Condemnation has continued to pour in from the international community after the attack — the first of its kind in the Syrian capital since Islamist-led forces toppled longtime ruler Bashar al-Assad in December.It was also the first inside a church in Syria since the country’s civil war erupted in 2011, according to a monitor, in a country where security remains one of the new authorities’ greatest challenges.Since the new authorities took power, the international community has repeatedly urged the government to protect minorities and ensure their participation in Syria’s transition, particularly after sectarian violence in recent months.

Around 84 percent of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asia, leaving the economies of China, India, South Korea and others vulnerable should Iran blockade the crucial trading route over US strikes on its nuclear sites.Around 14.2 million barrels of crude oil and 5.9 million barrels of other petroleum products pass …

Asian countries most vulnerable to Strait of Hormuz blockade Read More »

An Israeli strike on Evin prison in Tehran on Monday is completely irresponsible and puts prisoners “in mortal danger”, said Noemie Kohler, the sister of French national Cecile Kohler who is jailed there.Iran’s judiciary said Israeli strikes left sections of the facility damaged and Israel’s defence minister confirmed the army was targeting it.Cecile Kohler has been held along with her partner Jacques Paris in Evin since May 2022 on espionage charges their families reject.Overall, Iran is believed to hold around 20 European nationals in what some Western governments describe as a strategy of hostage-taking aimed at extracting concessions from the West.Most are held in Evin, a large, heavily fortified complex notorious among activists for rights abuses.It is located in a northern district of the Iranian capital.”This strike is completely irresponsible. Cecile, Jacques and all the prisoners are in mortal danger,” Noemie Kohler told AFP.”This is really the worst thing that could have happened,” she added.”We have no news, we don’t know if they are still alive, we’re panicking,” Noemie Kohler said.She urged the French authorities to “condemn these extremely dangerous strikes” and secure the release of the French prisoners.She also expressed concern about the risk of “chaos” and “riots”.Noemie Kohler has tirelessly campaigned to secure the release of her sister and her sister’s partner Jacques Paris.Chirinne Ardakani, a lawyer for the Kohler family, denounced the strikes as “illegal”.”The risk of riots, general confusion and reprisals by the security forces against the insurgent prisoners raises fears of bloodshed,” she told AFP.”Both sides are playing with people’s lives.”The Iranian judiciary’s website, Mizan Online, said that the prison buildings remained “under control.”

Loud explosions rocked Tehran on Monday as Israel said it struck “regime targets” in the city, escalating tensions a day after US air strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.Iran, in turn, fired missile barrages at Israel and vowed retaliation against the United States, as both sides intensified attacks on the war’s 11th day.An Iranian news agency said Israel struck Fordo — a key nuclear enrichment facility buried deep in the mountains south of Tehran. The previous day, the United States hit the site with “bunker buster” bombs in support of its ally Israel.”The aggressor attacked the Fordo nuclear site again,” the Tasnim agency reported, quoting a provincial official.President Donald Trump boasted Sunday’s US strikes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities, but other officials said it was too soon to assess the impact on Iran’s nuclear programme, which Israel and some Western states consider an existential threat.Aerial assaults meanwhile raged on, with sirens sounding across Israel and AFP journalists reporting blasts were heard over Jerusalem.The Israeli military said it had struck missile sites in western Iran, “six Iranian regime airports” across the country, and unspecified “military targets” in the capital.An AFP journalist in Tehran reported hearing loud explosions in the city’s north, and the Iranian Red Crescent said an Israeli strike hit near its building in the same area.Defence Minister Israel Katz said the Israeli military was “carrying out strikes of unprecedented force against regime targets and agencies of government oppression in the heart of Tehran”, adding to speculation that Israel may seek to topple Iran’s clerical leadership.Iranian media said Israel’s strikes hit a power supply system in Tehran, triggering outages.In Israel, the national electricity company reported “damage near a strategic infrastructure facility” in the south that disrupted power supply, without naming the location or specifying the cause.Some details of the damage in Israel are barred from publication due to military censorship rules.An AFP photographer in Tel Aviv saw people rush to a bomb shelter after sirens sounded, including beach-goers with in swimsuits and carrying surfing boards.Footage shared by the Israeli military of what it said were the latest airport strikes showed grainy black-and-white footage of fighter jets and helicopters explode upon impact.Israeli strikes on Iran have killed more than 400 people, Iran’s health ministry said. Iran’s attacks on Israel have killed 24 people, according to official figures.- ‘Extremely dangerous’ -After the US strikes, global markets reacted nervously, with oil prices jumping more than four percent early Monday but dipping later in the day.China urged both Iran and Israel to prevent the conflict from spilling over, warning of potential economic fallout.Iranian armed forces spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari said on state television that the US “hostile act”, following more than a week of Israeli bombardments, would “pave the way for the extension of war in the region”.”The fighters of Islam will inflict serious, unpredictable consequences on you,” he warned.Oman, a key mediator in the stalled Iran-US nuclear talks, condemned the US strikes and called for calm.Iran’s foreign ministry accused Washington of betraying diplomacy.”Future generations will not forget that the Iranians were in the middle of a diplomatic process with a country that is now at war with us,” said ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on China to help deter Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.The European Union’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said closing the strategic strait would be “extremely dangerous”.With Iran threatening US bases in the region, the State Department issued a worldwide alert cautioning Americans abroad.In Bahrain, home to a major US base, the US embassy said it had “temporarily shifted a portion of its employees to local telework” citing “heightened regional tensions”.- Trump touts ‘regime change’ -After the Pentagon stressed the goal of American intervention was not to topple the Iranian government, Trump openly toyed with the idea.”If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change???” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform.Hours later he posted: “Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran… Obliteration is an accurate term!”At a Pentagon press briefing earlier in the day, top US general Dan Caine said “initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage.”Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, said his country’s bombardments would “finish” once the stated objectives of destroying Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities have been achieved.”We are very, very close to completing them,” he said.Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council that craters were visible at the Fordo facility, but it had not been possible to assess the underground damage.”Armed attacks on nuclear facilities should never take place,” he added.Iran has consistently denied seeking an atomic bomb, and Grossi has said there was no evidence to suggest so despite the Islamic republic’s advanced uranium enrichment and other activities.The IAEA said on Monday Tehran had informed it of “special measures to protect nuclear material” when the Israeli campaign began.The US agency also said it was seeking access to Iranian nuclear sites to “account for” stockpiles of highly enriched uranium.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who was due to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, had accused the United States of deciding to “blow up” nuclear diplomacy with its intervention in the war.burs-ami/dv