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More than 14 million of the world’s most vulnerable people, a third of them small children, could die by 2030 because of the Trump administration’s dismantling of US foreign aid, research projected on Tuesday.The study in the prestigious Lancet journal was published as world and business leaders gather for a United Nations conference in Spain this week hoping to bolster the reeling aid sector.The US Agency for International Development (USAID) had provided over 40 percent of global humanitarian funding until Donald Trump returned to the White House in January. Two weeks later, Trump’s then-close advisor — and world’s richest man — Elon Musk boasted of having put the agency “through the woodchipper”.The funding cuts “risk abruptly halting — and even reversing — two decades of progress in health among vulnerable populations”, warned study co-author Davide Rasella, a researcher at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal).”For many low- and middle-income countries, the resulting shock would be comparable in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict,” he said in a statement.Looking back over data from 133 nations, the international team of researchers estimated that USAID funding had prevented 91.8 million deaths in developing countries between 2001 and 2021. That is more than the estimated number of deaths during World War II, history’s deadliest conflict.- HIV, malaria to rise -The researchers also used modelling to project how funding being slashed by 83 percent — the figure announced by the US government earlier this year — could affect death rates.The cuts could lead to more than 14 million avoidable deaths by 2030, the projections found.That number included over 4.5 million children under the age of five — or around 700,000 child deaths a year.For comparison, around 10 million soldiers are estimated to have been killed during World War I. Programmes supported by USAID were linked to a 15-percent decrease in deaths from all causes, the researchers determined. For children under five, the drop in deaths was twice as steep, at 32 percent.USAID funding was found to be particularly effective at staving off preventable deaths from disease. There were 65 percent fewer deaths from HIV/AIDS in countries receiving a high level of support compared to those with little or no USAID funding, the study found. Deaths from malaria and neglected tropical diseases were similarly cut in half. Study co-author Francisco Saute of Mozambique’s Manhica Health Research Centre said he had seen on the ground how USAID helped fight diseases such as HIV, malaria and tuberculosis. “Cutting this funding now not only puts lives at risk — it also undermines critical infrastructure that has taken decades to build,” he stressed.A recently updated tracker run by disease modeller Brooke Nichols at Boston University estimates that nearly 108,000 adults and more than 224,000 children have already died as a result of the US aid cuts. That works out to 88 deaths every hour, according to the tracker.- ‘Time to scale up’ -After USAID was gutted, several other major donors, including France, Germany and the UK, followed suit in announcing plans to slash their foreign aid budgets. These aid reductions, particularly in the European Union, could lead to “even more additional deaths in the coming years,” study co-author Caterina Monti of ISGlobal said.But the grim projections are based on the current amount of pledged aid, so could rapidly come down if the situation changes, the researchers emphasised.Dozens of world leaders are meeting in the Spanish city of Seville this week for the biggest aid conference in a decade. The United States, however, will not attend.”Now is the time to scale up, not scale back,” Rasella said.Before its funding was slashed, USAID represented 0.3 percent of all US federal spending.”US citizens contribute about 17 cents per day to USAID, around $64 per year,” said study co-author James Macinko of the University of California, Los Angeles.”I think most people would support continued USAID funding if they knew just how effective such a small contribution can be to saving millions of lives.”

An Algerian court is expected to deliver a verdict Tuesday on prosecutors’ bid to double the jail term of a dual-national author whose conviction has strained ties with France.Boualem Sansal, 80, was first sentenced to five years behind bars on March 27 on charges related to undermining Algeria’s territorial integrity over comments made to a French media outlet.The prosecutor general appealed last month and is seeking a 10-year prison sentence.A prize-winning figure in North African modern francophone literature, Sansal is known for his criticism of Algerian authorities as well as of Islamists.The case against him arose after he told the far-right outlet Frontieres that France had unjustly transferred Moroccan territory to Algeria during the colonial period from 1830 to 1962 — a claim Algeria views as a challenge to its sovereignty and that aligns with longstanding Moroccan territorial assertions.Sansal was detained in November 2024 upon arrival at Algiers airport. On March 27, a court in Dar El Beida sentenced him to a five-year prison term and fined him 500,000 Algerian dinars ($3,730).Appearing in court without legal counsel on June 24, Sansal said the case against him “makes no sense” as “the Algerian constitution guarantees freedom of expression and conscience”.He defended his remarks by citing the African Union’s post-independence declaration that colonial borders should remain inviolable.When questioned about his writings, Sansal asked: “Are we holding a trial over literature? Where are we headed?”- Diplomatic rift -His family has expressed fears prison could jeopardise his health, noting he is receiving treatment for prostate cancer.French President Emmanuel Macron has appealed to his Algerian counterpart Abdelmadjid Tebboune to show “mercy and humanity” toward Sansal.Authorities in the North African country maintain that due process is being respected.The writer’s conviction further strained already tense France-Algeria relations, which have been complicated by issues such as migration and Macron’s recent recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, a disputed territory claimed by the Algeria-backed Polisario Front.Last month, the French National Assembly passed a resolution calling for Sansal’s immediate release and linking future EU-Algeria cooperation to respect for human rights.While his case has become a cause celebre in France, among Algerians his past support for Israel has made him unpopular with a large segment of the population who back the Palestinian cause.Sansal faces charges including “undermining national unity”, “insulting state institutions”, “harming the national economy”, and “possessing media and publications threatening the country’s security and stability”.Sansal’s daughters, Nawel and Sabeha, told AFP in May they felt “a sense of total helplessness” over their father’s imprisonment “simply for expressing an opinion”.Some of the author’s relatives have expressed hope that he will be pardoned on July 5, the 63rd anniversary of Algeria’s independence.”Enough is enough. The Algerian authorities must now understand that France defends its citizens,” said the president of Sansal’s support committee, Noelle Lenoir, in an interview Tuesday.”We are outraged by the attitude of the Algerian government, which has nothing to gain — neither at the European level nor in its relations with France.”

Clashes erupted in Istanbul Monday with police firing rubber bullets and tear gas to break up an angry mob after allegations that a satirical magazine had published a cartoon of the Prophet Mohammed, an AFP correspondent said.The incident occurred after Istanbul’s chief prosecutor ordered the arrest of the editors at LeMan magazine on grounds it had published a cartoon which “publicly insulted religious values”.”The chief public prosecutor’s office has launched an investigation into the publication of a cartoon in the June 26, 2025 issue of LeMan magazine that publicly insults religious values, and arrest warrants have been issued for those involved,” the prosecutor’s office said. A copy of the black-and-white image posted on social media showed two characters hovering in the skies over a city under bombardment.”Salam aleikum, I’m Mohammed,” says one shaking hands with the other who replies, “Aleikum salam, I’m Musa.”But the magazine’s editor-in-chief Tuncay Akgun told AFP by phone from Paris that the image had been misinterpreted and was “not a caricature of Prophet Mohammed”. “In this work, the name of a Muslim who was killed in the bombardments of Israel is fictionalised as Mohammed. More than 200 million people in the Islamic world are named Mohammed,” he said, saying it had “nothing to do with Prophet Mohammed. “We would never take such a risk.” As the news broke, several dozen angry protesters attacked a bar often frequented by LeMan staffers in downtown Istanbul, provoking angry scuffles with police, an AFP correspondent said. The scuffles quickly degenerated into clashes involving between 250 to 300 people, the correspondent said. – Cartoonist, two others held – In several posts on X, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said police had arrested the cartoonist responsible for “this vile drawing”, the magazine’s graphic designer and two other staffers.Police had also taken over the magazine’s offices on Istiklal Avenue and arrest warrants had been issued for several other of the magazine’s executives, presidential press aide Fahrettin Altin wrote on X. In a string of posts on X, LeMan defended the cartoon and said it had been deliberately misinterpreted to cause a provocation.”The cartoonist wanted to portray the righteousness of the oppressed Muslim people by depicting a Muslim killed by Israel, he never intended to belittle religious values,” it said. Akgun said the legal attack on the magazine, a satirical bastion of opposition which was founded in 1991, was “incredibly shocking but not very surprising”.”This is an act of annihilation. Ministers are involved in the whole business, a cartoon is distorted,” he said. “Drawing similarities with Charlie Hebdo is very intentional and very worrying,” he said of the French satirical magazine whose offices were stormed by Islamist gunmen in 2015. The attack, which killed 12 people, occurred after it published caricatures lampooning the Prophet Mohammed.- ‘A very systematic provocation’ -“There is a game here, as if we were repeating something similar. This is a very systematic provocation and attack,” Akgun said.Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc an investigation had been opened on grounds of “publicly insulting religious values”. “Disrespect towards our beliefs is never acceptable,” he wrote on X. “No freedom grants the right to make the sacred values of a belief the subject of ugly humour. The caricature or any form of visual representation of our Prophet not only harms our religious values but also damages societal peace.” Istanbul governor Davut Gul also lashed out at “this mentality that seeks to provoke society by attacking our sacred values. “We will not remain silent in the face of any vile act targeting our nation’s faith,” he warned.