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President Donald Trump faces potentially the hardest choice of his time in the White House, as he weighs up whether the United States should join Israel’s bombing campaign against Iran.Trump fueled speculation about a US intervention as he dashed back from a G7 summit in Canada, warning Tuesday that the United States could kill Iran’s supreme leader, but would not “for now.”The choice is a monumental one for a president who has vowed throughout both his first and second terms in the Oval Office to get the United States out of its “forever wars” in the Middle East. “It’s a major political and military choice that could define his legacy in the Middle East,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told AFP.As Trump met his National Security Council in the White House Situation Room on Tuesday, there were already hints that he was considering abandoning what was until recently his preferred diplomatic route.The most likely option under consideration by Trump would be the use of giant US “bunker-buster” bombs against Iran’s deeply buried Fordow nuclear facility that Israel’s bombs could not reach.US officials said dismantling Iran’s nuclear program — which Western countries say Tehran is using to seek a nuclear weapon — remained Trump’s priority.- Fluid situation -Trump also implied that the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is back on the table, just days after a US official said he had waved off such a move by Israel.US officials stressed that Trump had not yet made a decision and was keeping all options on the table, with the situation fluid and changing “hourly.” The Axios news site said Trump was even considering a new meeting between his top negotiator Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi.A game-changer however would be any Iranian attack on US forces in the region, with an official saying that Trump would not tolerate a “hair on the back of an American” being harmed.Trump’s change of tone is remarkable for coming less than a week after the US president — who has openly talked about wanting to win the Nobel Peace Prize — called on Israel to avoid strikes.But amid frequent phone calls with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Netanyahu’s own hints about pursuing regime change in Iran, Trump has pivoted.Trump has ordered the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier to the region along with a number of US military aircraft, raising questions about whether he will act.- ‘Decisions on your shoulders’ – A further hint that action may be on the cards came from the White House’s apparent efforts to see off any backlash from his own Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement.There has been growing opposition to any Iran intervention from the isolationist wing of his base, who hold him to his pledge to keep the United States out of wars like those in Iraq and Afghanistan.Vice President JD Vance defended his boss, saying Trump had “earned some trust” on the issue and “may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian (uranium) enrichment.””Having seen this up close and personal, I can assure you that he is only interested in using the American military to accomplish American people’s goals,” the Iraq veteran said, in a nod to MAGA skeptics.Trump himself meanwhile hinted at his mood as he mulled his critical decision.He reposted a comment by US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, an evangelical Christian, saying God had “spared” Trump from an assassination attempt last year.”The decisions on your shoulders I would not want to be made by anyone else. You have many voices speaking to you Sir, but there is only ONE voice that matters. HIS voice,” Huckabee said.

Israel has inflicted damage on strategic sites and killed key figures within Iran’s military leadership during five days of aerial attacks that showed no sign of abating Tuesday, but whose ultimate outcome is unclear, analysts say.Israel says its offensive aims to eliminate Iran’s nuclear programme and ballistic missile production capabilities.The Israeli government has not ruled out triggering a wholesale removal of the clerical system set up after the 1979 Islamic Revolution that has remained implacably opposed to Israel’s existence.Yet even if Israel succeeds in ousting Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or killing him, the supreme leader will not necessarily be replaced by more moderate forces and the risk exists of further escalation, analysts warn.Diplomacy, meanwhile, remains at a standstill as Israel pounds Iranian targets and Iran hits back with its own strikes on its foe, heightening fears of a wider and prolonged conflict.- ‘Existential’ crisis -In television interviews, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not ruled out killing Khamenei, although a US official said President Donald Trump had vetoed assassinating the supreme leader.Israel, whose intelligence service is widely acknowledged to have deeply penetrated Iran, has killed a host of key figures including the head of the Revolutionary Guards and armed forces in a huge blow.”This is existential, the most profound of all the crises the Islamic republic has faced,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the London-based Chatham House think tank.”This is designed to decapitate the leadership of the Islamic republic and degrade the nuclear and broader capabilities of the regime,” she said.Rather than an immediate turnaround, what could result is “an unravelling over time” with the Israeli action putting an “accelerant” on a process of change already happening within Iran due to dissatisfaction with the authorities, she said.For Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Non-proliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, Israel’s military operation “is about regime change and not eliminating the nuclear programme”.”If the regime falls, then it will be an enormous success,” he said of the operation Israel dubbed “Rising Lion” — a likely reference to the beast which adorned the pre-revolutionary Iranian flag.- Proxies -Even in the event of a change in leadership, Gregory Brew, senior analyst for Iran and energy at risk analysis firm Eurasia Group, said Khamenei could be replaced with a figure who may be even more hardline and pose a greater danger to Israel in the conflict’s aftermath.”Kill Khamenei, make him a martyr to the hardliners and empower a new supreme leader who may be much less risk averse. Or leave him to die or resign in likely disgrace after the war, his credibility in ruins. Which move produces a government better suited to Israel’s interests?” Brew said.Iran’s ability to cause regional mayhem through its proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip has been severely degraded by Israeli operations since October 2023.But Tehran still backs the Huthi rebels in Yemen who have attacked Gulf shipping, while Iran can strike energy facilities or undertake cyberattacks.”It remains to be seen if Iran will seek to engage in grey zone activities, including cyberattacks,” said analysts at US-based think tank Soufan Center.- Nuclear diplomacy – Israel’s air strikes have put an end, for now, to the latest track of talks seeking to end the standoff over the Iranian nuclear programme, which the West and Israel fear is aimed at making the atomic bomb.Analysts say the future of any diplomatic progress lies with the United States and Trump, who has so far resisted Israeli pressure to become directly involved in the conflict.”Netanyahu’s goal is to bring Trump into the war,” said David Khalfa, co-founder of the Atlantic Middle East Forum think tank.”But I think he will stand back and let Israel continue to weaken Iran to force it to negotiate” with the Islamic republic in a weaker position, Khalfa said.Israel has hit the Natanz nuclear site during its attacks, but has not been able to strike the Fordo enrichment facility, which is located deep underground. Analysts believe Israel could only damage it with the help of American bunker-busting bombs.Ali Vaez, Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, argued in an article for Foreign Affairs that Israel would be unable to wipe out the Iranian nuclear programme even in a prolonged conflict.”A diplomatic settlement represents the best and most sustainable way for Trump to avoid both a nuclear Iran and a protracted military entanglement,” Vaez said.

Xi Jinping celebrated China’s “eternal friendship” with Central Asia at a summit in Kazakhstan on Tuesday, as the Chinese leader blasted tariffs and sought to assert Beijing’s influence in a region historically dominated by Russia.The summit in Astana brought together Xi with the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.Under Russia’s orbit until the …

China’s Xi in Kazakhstan to cement ‘eternal’ Central Asia ties Read More »

After filing out of their buses in the central Iraqi town of Ayn Tamr on Tuesday, Iranian pilgrims anxiously sought out internet connections, desperate for word from their loved ones back home.The more than 400 Iranians had recently completed their hajj pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia, and since crossing the border by land into Iraq, they had not received any updates.One woman dressed in black collapsed in tears after receiving a message informing her that her son was missing after Israeli strikes on Tehran, and that her son-in-law — an official killed in a bombardment — had been laid to rest in her absence.Other women sighed with relief when they finally connected with children and grandchildren via video call.”We fear for our children,” Amna Hammudi said, her voice trembling, before finally managing to reach her kids in Iran after two days of silence.”We are all worried about our families, our cities and our country,” the mother of four added.In a parking lot in Ayn Tamr, near the Shiite holy city of Karbala, 10 buses wait for permission to transport the pilgrims to the Mehran border crossing between Iraq and Iran.- ‘They brought war on us’ -Iraq is expected to receive 76,000 Iranian pilgrims by land after they were stranded in Saudi Arabia by airport closures following the surprise Israeli attack on Iran last week.It will welcome 2,500 Iranian pilgrims a day in the hope of facilitating their return home, according to Sami al-Massudi, the head of the Iraqi body for pilgrims to Saudi Arabia.Aziz Yussef, 55, said he was still in Saudi Arabia when he learned that a strike hit one kilometre (0.6 miles) from his house in the western city of Kermanshah.”They brought war on us. They are not only fighting us, but also Gaza and Syria, and the Americans are not stopping them,” Yussef said.Yussef urged the Iraqi government to speed up the process of getting pilgrims like him home, but even if he crosses into Iran, he doesn’t know how he will reach Kermanshah.Whenever an internet connection is available, Yussef and his wife are glued to their phones and the television, hoping for good news.- ‘God knows’ -On Friday, Israel launched a surprise attack on its arch foe Iran, hitting military and nuclear facilities and killing top commanders and atomic scientists.It has kept up its bombing campaign since then, with at least 224 people killed in strikes, according to Iranian authorities. Iran has responded with multiple missile salvos targeting Israeli cities, killing at least 24 people there, according to the prime minister’s office.Residential areas in both countries have suffered deadly strikes, and large numbers of people have fled Iran’s capital.US President Donald Trump warned early Tuesday that Tehran residents should “immediately evacuate” amid fears of a broader conflict that could engulf the region.Kadir Ansari, 70, had just contacted his family back home. “They are good,” he said with relief.In residential areas, “there are no armies and no bombs. You are sleeping, and they hit you,” he added.Ansari was still in Medina in Saudi Arabia when he learned about the Israeli assault, and now he fears what may come next.Nonetheless, he insists on going back to Kermanshah.”God knows” what will happen after that, he said.

Israel’s strikes on Iran have targeted several of its nuclear facilities as it claims the country is seeking to develop nuclear weapons — an accusation Tehran denies.Experts told AFP that while the attacks had caused some damage to Iran’s nuclear programme, they are unlikely to have delivered a fatal blow.Here is an update on Iran’s nuclear sites as of Tuesday.- What is the extent of the damage? -Israel’s operation included strikes on Iran’s underground uranium enrichment sites at Natanz and Fordow, and on its Isfahan nuclear site, the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said, citing Iranian officials.A key, above-ground component of Iran’s Natanz nuclear site has been destroyed, including its power infrastructure, the IAEA reported Monday.The UN watchdog added Tuesday that satellite images indicated possible “direct impacts” on the underground section of the plant, where thousands of centrifuges are operating to enrich uranium.At the underground Fordow enrichment plant, Iran’s second uranium enrichment facility, the IAEA said it observed “no damage” following the attacks. At the Isfahan nuclear site, however, “four buildings were damaged” — the central chemical laboratory, a uranium conversion plant, the Tehran reactor fuel manufacturing plant, and a metal processing facility under construction, the IAEA said.Significant uranium stockpiles are believed to be stored around the Isfahan site.Ali Vaez, the International Crisis Group’s Iran project director, told AFP that if Iran managed to transfer significant quantities to “secret facilities,” then “the game is lost for Israel”.Iran’s only nuclear power plant, the Bushehr plant, was not targeted, nor was the Tehran research reactor.- Can the programme be destroyed? -While “Israel can damage Iran’s nuclear programme… it is unlikely to be able to destroy it,” Vaez said, saying that Israel did not have the massively powerful bombs needed “to destroy the fortified, bunkered facilities in Natanz and Fordow”.Destroying those would require US military assistance, added Kelsey Davenport, an expert with the Arms Control Association.She also noted that Israel’s unprecedented attack would not erase the expertise Iran had built up on nuclear weapons, despite killing nine Iranian nuclear scientists.- What are the risks to the Iranian population? -The IAEA has not detected any increase in radiation levels at the affected sites.”There is very little risk that attacks on Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities would result in a harmful radiation release,” Davenport said.But an attack on the Bushehr plant could “have a serious impact on health and the environment”, she said. After Israel launched its strikes, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said that nuclear facilities “must never be attacked” and that targeting Iranian sites could have “grave consequences for the people of Iran, the region, and beyond”.- Is Iran close to developing a nuclear bomb? -After the United States under President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from a landmark deal that sought to curb Tehran’s nuclear activities, Iran has gradually retreated from some of its obligations, particularly on uranium enrichment.As of mid-May, the country had an estimated 408.6 kilogrammes (900 pounds) enriched to up to 60 percent — just a short step from the 90 percent needed for a nuclear warhead.Iran theoretically has enough near-weapons-grade material, if further refined, for about 10 nuclear bombs, according to the definition by the Vienna-based IAEA.Iran is the only non-nuclear-armed state producing uranium to this level of enrichment, according to the UN nuclear watchdog.- How much damage has Israel inflicted on Iran’s nuclear programme? -While the IAEA has been critical of Iran’s lack of cooperation with the UN body, it says there are “no credible indications of an ongoing, undeclared structured nuclear programme”.Tehran has consistently denied ambitions to develop nuclear warheads.But Davenport warned that the strikes could strengthen factions in Iran advocating for an atomic arsenal.”Israel’s strikes set Iran back technically, but politically the strikes are pushing Iran closer to nuclear weapons,” she said.

US President Donald Trump said he wants a “real end” to the conflict between Israel and Iran, not just a ceasefire, as the arch foes traded fire for a fifth day on Tuesday.Israeli warplanes targeted dozens of missile launchers in western Iran and killed a senior commander, the military said, drawing retaliatory fire from the Islamic republic.Explosions were heard over Tel Aviv and Jerusalem shortly after sirens sounded in many parts of Israel warning of incoming missiles, with the military warning of another barrage in the afternoon.Israeli police reported that debris fell in the central Tel Aviv area and the fire brigade said it was tackling a blaze.The Israeli military said it killed senior Iranian commander Ali Shadmani in an overnight strike on a “command centre in the heart of Tehran”, just four days after his predecessor, Gholam Ali Rashid, was killed in Israel’s surprise attack.Israel also said it targeted multiple missile and drone sites in western Iran overnight and again later on Tuesday, with black-and-white footage showing some of them exploding.Despite mounting calls to de-escalate, neither side has backed off from the missile blitz that began Friday, when Israel launched an unprecedented aerial campaign targeting Iranian nuclear and military facilities.A new wave of Israeli strikes on Tehran — including a dramatic hit on state television headquarters that the broadcaster said killed three people — prompted both sides to activate missile defence systems overnight.Iranian media reported several explosions in the central city of Isfahan, home to a key nuclear facility.Residential areas in both countries have suffered, while foreign government scrambled to evacuate their citizens.A cyberattack on Tuesday crippled Sepah Bank, one of Iran’s main state-owned banks, the Fars news agency reported.- ‘Complete give-up’ -Trump said on Tuesday that he wanted a “complete give-up” by Iran in return for peace, without elaborating on the outcome he seeks.”I’m not looking for a ceasefire, we’re looking at better than a ceasefire,” he told reporters after cutting short his attendance at a Group of Seven summit in Canada.Trump, who has said Washington was not involved in Israel’s initial strikes, again warned Iran against targeting US troops and assets in the Middle East, saying “we’ll come down so hard, it’d be gloves off”.The US president had earlier issued an extraordinary warning on his Truth Social platform, saying: “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”Fearing the violence, many residents have fled Tehran since Friday.On Tuesday, long queues stretched outside bakeries and petrol stations as the remaining residents rushed to stock up on fuel and basic supplies.Security checkpoints have been set up across Tehran, adding to the atmosphere of tension as authorities monitor movement in and out of key districts.Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said the United States was deploying “additional capabilities” to the Middle East, with a US aircraft carrier reportedly heading to the region.China accused Trump of “pouring oil” on the conflict.”Making threats and mounting pressure will not help to promote the de-escalation of the situation, but will only intensify and widen the conflict,” said foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun.At the G7 summit, leaders including Trump called Monday for “de-escalation” while stressing Israel had the right to defend itself and that “Iran can never have a nuclear weapon”.- Iran ‘will continue’ -After decades of enmity and a prolonged shadow war, Israel said its surprise air campaign aimed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons — an ambition Tehran denies.The UN nuclear watchdog said there appear to have been “direct impacts on the underground enrichment halls” at Iran’s Natanz facility.Israel has maintained ambiguity regarding its own atomic activities, but the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) says it has 90 nuclear warheads.The escalation has derailed nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington and stoked fears of broader conflict.At least 24 people have been killed in Israel and hundreds wounded, according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office.Iran said on Sunday that Israeli strikes had killed at least 224 people, including military commanders, nuclear scientists and civilians. It has not issued an updated toll since then.Netanyahu said Israel was “changing the face of the Middle East, and that can lead to radical changes inside Iran itself”.After several rounds of talks on Tehran’s nuclear programme in recent weeks, Iran said after the start of Israel’s campaign that it would not negotiate with the United States while under attack.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Monday that “absent a total cessation of military aggression against us, our responses will continue”.Iranian state television said the Tel Aviv headquarters of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency was among the Revolutionary Guards’ targets.burs-dv/ami/kir

Jordan’s King Abdullah II warned in an address to the European Parliament on Tuesday that Israel’s “attacks” on Iran threatened to dangerously escalate tensions in the “region and beyond”.Speaking as the arch foes traded fire for a fifth day, Abdullah said that “with Israel’s expansion of its offensive to include Iran, there is no telling where the boundaries of this battleground will end”.”And that, my friends, is a threat to people everywhere,” he told lawmakers in Strasbourg.Israel says its air campaign aims to prevent its sworn enemy from acquiring nuclear weapons, an ambition Tehran denies.The escalation — capping decades of enmity that has spiked with the war in Gaza — has derailed nuclear talks with Iran and stoked fears of a broader conflict.Abdullah addressed lawmakers at length on the “shameful” situation in Gaza, urging the international community to keep pressing for a resolution to the eight-decade Israeli-Palestinian conflict as critical to “our mutual security”.”What version of our humanity allows the unthinkable to become routine, permits weaponising famine against children, normalises the targeting of health workers, journalists and civilians seeking refuge in camps,” he asked.”This conflict must end, and the only viable solution is one grounded in a just peace, international law and mutual recognition.”Israel has pounded most of Gaza into rubble following Hamas’s attack of October 7, 2023. The death toll in the Palestinian territory has surpassed 55,000 people, the majority of them civilians.

As Israeli air strikes on Tehran show no sign of abating, many residents have fled the Iranian capital. But for others, escape is not an option.”I’ve heard multiple explosions near my home in western Tehran,” said Mina, a 37-year-old computer scientist. “I wanted to leave, but I have several cats and I can’t abandon them.”Israel launched a devastating attack on Friday that has killed at least 224 people — including women and children — leading many parts of the Iranian capital to empty out.The assault prompted a retaliatory barrage from Iran that has killed at least 24 people in Israel, according to the Israeli prime minister’s office.Israel on Monday warned residents to leave a northern district of the capital before striking the headquarters of state television — an attack the broadcaster said killed three people.It came two days after Israel declared it had “opened a path to Tehran” by knocking out Iran’s air defences.But amid the ensuing exodus, those left behind are grappling with fear, shortages and a sense of defiant endurance.On Tuesday, long queues stretched outside bakeries and petrol stations — some several kilometres (miles) long — as remaining residents rushed to stock up on fuel and basic supplies.Grocery and convenience stores stayed open, but markets and jewellery shops across the city remained closed.Security checkpoints have been set up across Tehran, adding to the atmosphere of tension as authorities monitor movement in and out of key districts.- Subdued cityscape  -Traffic in central Tehran was visibly thinner, with sporadic lines forming outside pharmacies.Images posted online — though unverified — showed extensive damage to homes: shattered windows, collapsed facades and debris-filled living rooms.In Tajrish Square, workers scrambled to repair a water pipeline damaged in an earlier strike, while some residents relocated temporarily to access running water.”The regime (Israel) must await harsh punishment,” read one banner in downtown Tehran, displayed alongside portraits of slain Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists.Other banners quoted Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: “The powerful hand of the Islamic Republic’s armed forces will not relent against the Zionist regime.”The banners -— along with headlines from foreign outlets reporting on Iran’s retaliation — dotted an otherwise subdued cityscape.The Grand Bazaar stayed shut, while a banner in Vali-Asr Square honoured Sahar Emami, the state TV anchor who remained on air during the Israeli strike on the broadcaster’s headquarters.Her image, finger raised in defiance, was paired with a verse from the Persian poet Ferdowsi, celebrating the courage of women “on the battlefield”.While fear grips the capital, what remains is a patchwork of resilience, helplessness — and an uneasy stillness as many await what comes next.