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Iran-Israel war: a lifeline for Netanyahu?

The Iran-Israel war has helped strengthen Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu domestically and overseas, just as his grip on power looked vulnerable.On the eve of launching strikes on Iran, his government looked to be on the verge of collapse, with a drive to conscript ultra-Orthodox Jews threatening to scupper his fragile coalition.Nearly two years on from Hamas’s unprecedented attack in 2023, Netanyahu was under growing domestic criticism for his handling of the war in Gaza, where dozens of hostages remain unaccounted for.Internationally too, he was coming under pressure including from longstanding allies, who since the war with Iran began have gone back to expressing support.Just days ago, polls were predicting Netanyahu would lose his majority if new elections were held, but now, his fortunes appear to have reversed, and Israelis are seeing in “Bibi” the man of the moment.– ‘Reshape the Middle East’ –For decades, Netanyahu has warned of the risk of a nuclear attack on Israel by Iran — a fear shared by most Israelis.Yonatan Freeman, a geopolitics expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said Netanyahu’s argument that the pre-emptive strike on Iran was necessary draws “a lot of public support” and that the prime minister has been “greatly strengthened”.Even the opposition has rallied behind him.”Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is my political rival, but his decision to strike Iran at this moment in time is the right one,” opposition leader Yair Lapid wrote in a Jerusalem Post op-ed.A poll published Saturday by a conservative Israeli channel showed that 54 percent of respondents expressed confidence in the prime minister.The public had had time to prepare for the possibility of an offensive against Iran, with Netanyahu repeatedly warning that Israel was fighting for its survival and had an opportunity to “reshape the Middle East.”During tit-for-tat military exchanges last year, Israel launched air raids on targets in Iran in October that are thought to have severely damaged Iranian air defences.Israel’s then-defence minister Yoav Gallant said the strikes had shifted “the balance of power” and had “weakened” Iran.”In fact, for the past 20 months, Israelis have been thinking about this (a war with Iran),” said Denis Charbit, a political scientist at Israel’s Open University.Since Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, Netanyahu has ordered military action in Gaza, against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon and the Huthis in Yemen, as well as targets in Syria where long-time leader Bashar al-Assad fell in December last year.”Netanyahu always wants to dominate the agenda, to be the one who reshuffles the deck himself — not the one who reacts — and here he is clearly asserting his Churchillian side, which is, incidentally, his model,” Charbit said.”But depending on the outcome and the duration (of the war), everything could change, and Israelis might turn against Bibi and demand answers.”– Silencing critics –For now, however, people in Israel see the conflict with Iran as a “necessary war,” according to Nitzan Perelman, a researcher specialised in Israel at the National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) in France.”Public opinion supports this war, just as it has supported previous ones,” she added.”It’s very useful for Netanyahu because it silences criticism, both inside the country and abroad.”In the weeks ahead of the Iran strikes, international criticism of Netanyahu and Israel’s military had reached unprecedented levels.After more than 55,000 deaths in Gaza, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory, and a blockade that has produced famine-like conditions there, Israel has faced growing isolation and the risk of sanctions, while Netanyahu himself is the subject of an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes.But on Sunday, two days into the war with Iran, the Israeli leader received a phone call from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, while Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has held talks with numerous counterparts.”There’s more consensus in Europe in how they see Iran, which is more equal to how Israel sees Iran,” explained Freeman from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Tuesday that Israel was doing “the dirty work… for all of us.”The idea that a weakened Iran could lead to regional peace and the emergence of a new Middle East is appealing to the United States and some European countries, according to Freeman.But for Perelman, “Netanyahu is exploiting the Iranian threat, as he always has.” 

Gaza Humanitarian Foundation initiative ‘outrageous’: UN probe chief

The use of the US and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation to distribute food in the Palestinian territory is “outrageous”, the head of a UN inquiry said Wednesday.Navi Pillay, who chairs the UN’s Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Israel and the Palestinian territories, joined a growing chorus of criticism of the GHF’s operations, and cited its US links.”In every war, the siege and starvation surely leads to death,” the former UN rights chief told journalists.”But this initiative of what’s called a foundation, a private foundation, to supply food, is what I see as outrageous, because it involves the United States itself, the government, and it turns out, as we watch daily, that people who go to those centres are being killed as they seek food.”An officially private effort with opaque funding, GHF began operations on May 26 after Israel completely cut off supplies into Gaza for more than two months, sparking warnings of mass famine.The United Nations and major aid groups have refused to cooperate with the foundation over concerns it was designed to cater to Israeli military objectives.Dozens of Palestinians have been killed while trying to reach GHF distribution points.Pillay said the commission would “have to look into… the policy purpose and how it’s being effected.”We have to spell out what is the motive of, right now, the killing of people who are coming for humanitarian aid from this so-called foundation — and that lives are being lost just in trying to secure food for their children.”Unprecedented in its open-ended scope, the three-person Commission of Inquiry was established by the UN Human Rights Council in May 2021 to investigate alleged violations of international humanitarian and human rights law in Israel and the Palestinian territories.South African former High Court judge Pillay, 83, served as a judge on the International Criminal Court and presided over the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda.On Tuesday she presented the commission’s latest report to the Human Rights Council.It said Israel had attacked Gaza’s schools, religious and cultural sites as part of a “widespread and systematic” assault on the civilian population, in which Israeli forces have committed “war crimes” and “the crime against humanity of extermination”.Israel does not cooperate with the investigation and has long accused it of “systematic anti-Israel discrimination”.

Gulf states on Iran’s doorstep scramble for end of war

As Iran and Israel trade strikes and the US weighs joining in, wealthy Gulf states on the conflict’s doorstep are engaged in frantic diplomacy to halt the war — but solutions remain elusive.A spillover of the conflict or the Iranian government’s collapse are both worrying outcomes for the energy-rich region, which hosts several major US military bases.Peace and stability have been central to the rise of Gulf powers including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who are pivoting their economies towards business and tourism.Hoping to avert the crisis, Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, has been talking to Iran and the United States since “day one”, Ali Shihabi, an analyst close to the royal court, told AFP.”But it does not look promising that something will happen very soon,” he added.Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto Saudi ruler, and the UAE’s President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, have both spoken to Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian in recent days.The Emirati president also held a phone call on Wednesday with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, an ally of Iran, who offered to mediate in the conflict.Israel’s launching of the war scuppered Oman-brokered talks between Tehran and Washington that were supported by Gulf nations, who have been pursuing a detente with their giant neighbour after years of strained ties.- ‘Reckless and miscalculated’ -On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and warned it could easily assassinate its supreme leader, fuelling fears of American intervention.Hours later, the UAE’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan said the Gulf country’s president had “conducted intensive diplomatic calls… to de-escalate tensions and prevent the conflict from spreading”.Sheikh Abdullah warned against “reckless and miscalculated actions that could extend beyond the borders of the two countries”, in a strongly worded statement published by the official WAM news agency.Trump had initially urged Iran to come to the negotiating table, but an official briefed on talks said Tehran told Qatar and Oman that it “will not negotiate while under attack”. Oman, Iran’s traditional intermediary, said it was engaged in diplomatic efforts as the daily strikes continue.Meanwhile Qatar, a key mediator in the Israel-Hamas war and a negotiator with Iran in the past, has also been “engaging daily” with the US, its foreign ministry spokesperson said on Tuesday.Former Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani warned on X that “it is not in the interest of the Gulf states to see Iran… collapse”, adding that they would be “the first to be harmed” by the war’s repercussions.- ‘Almost no influence’ -An Arab diplomat told AFP: “Everyone in the Gulf is going to say we are better off making sure we have a deal with Iran, a diplomatic solution with Iran.”Shihabi, the Saudi analyst, echoed the sentiment, saying the best outcome was “obviously an agreement between Iran and (the) US”.Diplomatic intervention by Saudi Arabia, once a fierce critic of Iran, comes two years after they restored ties. The UAE, which recognised Israel in 2020, has also patched up relations with Tehran since 2022.”Whereas the Saudis may have once called for ‘cutting off the head of the snake’, their approach toward Iran has shifted dramatically,” said Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.However, “the Arab Gulf states have almost no ability to shape Israel’s or Iran’s behaviour or influence the outcome of this war,” he told AFP.”It is difficult to see how Israel’s military campaign against Iran, whose objectives seem to have quickly metastasised from eliminating Iran’s nuclear and missiles programmes to overthrowing the regime, ends well for Iran’s Arab Gulf neighbours,” Alhasan added.

Gaza flotilla skipper vows to return

The Dutch captain of a Gaza-bound ship carrying activists including Swedish campaigner Greta Thunberg said Wednesday future missions could still be in the works as he returned to the Netherlands.Mark van Rennes arrived back at Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport, greeted by dozens of supporters, some carrying Palestinian flags and banners reading “Free Palestine.”His ship, the Madleen, operated by the Freedom Flotilla Coalition, left Italy on June 1 with the aim of delivering aid and challenging the Israeli blockade of Gaza.Israel’s military intercepted the vessel, which it dubbed the “selfie yacht”, saying it was not authorised to travel to the war-torn area.Asked if future missions could happen, Van Rennes said: “The blockade (of Gaza) has been going for 18 years and it’s still ongoing.””The oppression of the Palestinians is ongoing. As long as that is ongoing, the flotilla will go on as well,” he added.After being taken to an Israeli port, Thunberg and three other activists agreed to be deported immediately.But Israeli authorities detained eight others, who appeared before an immigration tribunal before being sent back to their home countries.Van Rennes was supposed to return to the Netherlands on Friday but Israel airspace was closed due to the ongoing conflict with Iran.He said his conditions while being held in Israel were “not ideal” and he went to hospital twice in Jordan on his way back, but did not give more details. “I think the focus should be on the more than 10,000 Palestinians who are now still in detention camps who are in much worse conditions, being tortured and humiliated every day,” he told AFP.The war was triggered by an unprecedented Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which resulted in the deaths of 1,219 people, according to official Israeli figures.The overall death toll in Gaza since the war broke out reached 55,493 people, according to the health ministry health ministry in the Hamas-run territory.The war has ravaged the Gaza Strip, with shortages of food, fuel and clean water.

Iran threatens response if US crosses ‘red line’: ambassador

The United States is “complicit” in Israel’s strikes in Iran, Tehran’s ambassador to the United Nations claimed Wednesday, vowing that his country would respond if Washington crosses a “red line”.After decades of enmity and a prolonged shadow war, Israel says its surprise air campaign that began on June 13 is aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons — an ambition Tehran denies.Iran said early Wednesday that it fired hypersonic missiles at Israel in the latest round of overnight strikes between the arch foes.US President Donald Trump has said that Washington has played no part in the bombing campaign by its ally Israel, but has also warned Iran that his patience is wearing thin.”We firmly believe that the United States is complicit in what Israel is doing,” Iranian ambassador Ali Bahreini told a press conference.”And at any time, at any point, if we come to the conclusion that the United States is directly involved in attacks against Iran, we will start responding to the United States.”He said Tehran was “vigilant” about Trump’s “completely unwarranted” and “hostile” remarks.”There is a line which, if crossed, there should be a response on our side… once the red line is crossed, the response will come,” Bahreini said.- ‘We will respond strongly’ -“We will respond strongly and we will stop aggression from any side, be it Israel or the United States,” he told the UN correspondents’ association.”And we have given a message to the United States that we will respond very firmly and will stop the aggression by anybody — including the United States.Bahreini also said Tehran was “resolute in responding to Israeli attacks”.”We will respond very, very, very seriously and strongly, and that is what we are doing now. Nobody should expect Iran to show any kind of restraint,” he said.He also criticised the attitude of Western and European nations.”Not only they are not condemning the attacks and aggression, they are trying to justify the aggression,” he said.Asked about a possible resumption of negotiations with Washington over Iran’s nuclear programme, the ambassador said that for now, Iran was “not thinking about any scenario” other than “defending ourselves”.Addressing the UN Human Rights Council on Wednesday, Bahreini issued a warning to Israel’s allies.”The Israeli regime’s supporters, and the United States at the forefront, should know that supporting this regime means directly supporting international humanitarian and human rights law violations,” he said.

Iranians buying supplies in Iraq tell of fear, shortages back home

Near the once-bustling Iraqi border crossing of Bashmakh, Iranian driver Fatah stocked up on rice, sugar and tea, staples that have become increasingly hard to get back home.Fatah — who like others in this story is being identified by a pseudonym — was among dozens of truck drivers waiting impatiently to cross back into Iran from Iraq’s northern Kurdistan region, hauling not only their commercial cargo, but also essential goods for their families after days of Israeli attacks.AFP spoke with at least 30 Iranians near the Bashmakh crossing. They all refused to be interviewed on camera, and the few who agreed to describe life back home asked to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals back in Iran.”There are shortages of rice, bread, sugar and tea,” Fatah said Tuesday.Finding fuel has also become a major problem, with long queues of cars waiting hours in front of gas stations hoping the fuel did not run out, the 40-year-old driver added.A long journey awaits Fatah, who must deliver his load of asphalt to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas about 1,700 kilometres (1,060 miles) away, before turning around and driving almost the same distance back to the western city of Marivan, where his family lives and which has so far been spared bombardment.But “my route passes near the Natanz nuclear facility”, Fatah said, referring to one of Iran’s underground uranium enrichment sites that Israel has struck several times since the start of its campaign last week.- Panic buying -Israel launched a devastating surprise attack on Friday targeting Iran’s military and nuclear sites and killing top commanders and scientists. Israel says its attacks are aimed at preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, an ambition Tehran denies. At least 224 people, including women and children, have been killed in the Israeli strikes, according to official figures.The assault has prompted retaliatory barrages of missiles from Iran that have killed at least 24 people in Israel, according to the prime minister’s office.Aram, 28, keeps calling his wife, fearing for his family’s safety after they had to flee their home when a strike hit a military site nearby in the city of Sanandaj.”My family is safe, but they had to move in with relatives in a village,” Aram said.His wife told him that many families who lived near military sites in the area had been similarly displaced. The father of two said the shortages back home were mostly due to panic-stricken Iranians who rushed to markets to stockpile basic supplies.- ‘Shocked and distraught’ -Back in Iran, car dealer Shwan recalled how Israeli jets struck several military sites near his city of Bukan in the west. “People are shocked and distraught, they don’t know what they should do,” the 35-year-old told AFP via a messaging app from inside Iran.”We have a major problem with bread shortages,” he said.People were queuing at bakeries for hours to get loaves of bread, sometimes to no avail, Shwan said.”Sometimes four members of one family go around bakeries looking for bread,” he added.”It is also difficult to find rice or oil,” and many civil servants have not received their salaries yet, he said.Avin, a 38-year-old seamstress, told AFP via a messaging app that the war “has spread fear among residents”, even though the bombs have not touched her town of Saqqez in northwest Iran.”Some families with children left to villages outside the city,” she said. Like others, she fears more shortages to come.”Most of the provisions come from Tehran,” which has seen a massive exodus and is also grappling with scarcity.”Because of this, the market in our city came to a standstill.”

Israel begins flying home citizens stranded abroad by Iran conflict

A first aircraft bringing home Israelis stranded abroad by flight cancellations resulting from the conflict with Iran touched down on Wednesday, with returnees expressing relief to be back on Israeli soil.A statement from the airports authority said “the first flight of Operation Safe Return” landed at Ben Gurion Airport early Wednesday, with national carrier El Al bringing Israelis home from Larnaca in Cyprus. Transport Minister Miri Regev said Tuesday that between 100,000 and 150,000 Israelis have been stranded abroad, as Israel and Iran traded deadly fire in their most intense confrontation ever.Despite the nightly volleys of Iranian missile fire at Israel since Friday, hotelier Yaakov Bogen, 66, said he would rather be at home with family than abroad.”I belong here, and unfortunately we get used to these fights and war, but we prefer to be here, to support as much as we can,” he told AFP in Tel Aviv after landing back in Israel.Travellers with suitcases disembarked a bus in the coastal hub, after Israel’s airports authority urged the public not to order taxis or greet arriving passengers at Ben Gurion Airport due to “the current security situation”.Stylist Tali Gehorsam, 40, expressed relief to be back after her flight was redirected to Cyprus half an hour before landing in the early hours of Friday.”This is home. There’s no other place,” she said. “To be overseas and to watch the news is not a nice feeling.”After decades of enmity and a prolonged shadow war, the long-range blitz began Friday when Israel launched a massive bombing campaign that prompted Iran to respond with missiles and drones.Since Friday, at least 24 people have been killed in Israel and hundreds wounded, according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office.Ori Abadi, a 35-year-old Tel Aviv resident, said he had family in two areas of central Israel that have been hit by recent deadly missile strikes.”I know that both of the apartments got damaged. It really hurts, it’s really worrying and I’m really glad to be with my family now,” he said.Israel’s transport ministry said all of Israel’s commercial aircraft had been sent abroad to prevent damage during the air war with Iran.After suspending flights last week, El Al said it was “preparing rescue flights” starting Wednesday with planes departing from Larnaca, Athens, Rome, Milan and Paris.The low-cost Israeli airline Arkia also announced special flights this week to repatriate Israelis.A statement from the airports authority said Wednesday that the return operation “is being managed in stages based on the level of risk and current security assessments, with a strong emphasis on the safety of passengers, aircrews and aircraft”.