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Trump plays deft hand with Iran-Israel ceasefire but doubts remain

With his surprise announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, US President Donald Trump has turned his flair for social media into diplomatic deftness, despite continued uncertainty in the Middle East.Israel, Iran and Trump himself all declared victory after 12 days of conflict that culminated Saturday in the United States bombing Iran’s key nuclear sites.After facing criticism — even within his base — for breaking his campaign promises against military intervention abroad, Trump was able to show a quick way out, and to portray himself, despite the bombing, as a peacemaker.”I don’t think the Israeli government was able to sustain a long-term war, but I think the main factor here was President Trump. He did not want to see a new war in the region break out under his watch,” said Will Todman, a senior fellow at the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.”That is what changed the calculation for Israel and for Iran as well.”Trump startled even close aides and allies by announcing the ceasefire on social media late Monday — the middle of the night in the Middle East — just after Iran fired missiles at a US base in Qatar, in what appeared to be a choreographed response as the rockets were easily shot down.Trump chose not to retaliate against Iran and on Tuesday, returned to his electronic bully pulpit to urge Israel to abort new attacks on Iran.Iran needed an off-ramp as it suffered its worst assault since the 1980-88 war with Iraq. Trump also appeared to offer incentives to sanctions-bound Iran by suggesting an easing of US pressure on China to stop buying Iranian oil.Israel’s military, while proving itself to be the region’s strongest, has been stretched by campaigns in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon, and with Iranian strikes this month, the Israeli population endured the most prolonged, deadly air attacks seen in decades.After Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed Trump’s intervention, the president’s warning Tuesday likely also showed him the limits to US support, Todman said.- What was achieved? -Trump hailed his intervention as a monumental success, although critics have long warned that an attack could make Iran rush, more clandestinely, to a nuclear bomb.While Trump claimed Iran’s nuclear program was “obliterated,” a classified report found that the US bombing did not destroy the core parts of the three nuclear sites, according to CNN and The New York Times. Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said it’s too early to know if the ceasefire would hold, either.He said that Gulf Arab powers, led by well-connected Qatar, did the hard work of quiet diplomacy as they sought a return to calm in their region.”Trump vocally used his troll power to try to restrain the actions of Israel and Iran, but that matters less compared with the role that these countries continuously play,” Katulis said of Gulf Arab states.Katulis, who worked on the Middle East for former president Bill Clinton, said the Trump administration’s tactical military operations, combined with “a heavy dose of strategic communications” confused Americans and global actors alike “about what it is we’re actually trying to get done.”- Showing heft at home -One area where Trump’s diplomacy had clear — if short-term — benefits was at home.A prolonged US military campaign “had the potential to really fracture President Trump’s own base of support,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.But now, “my guess is the majority of his MAGA and other Republican base will stay relatively unified, even if they were unthrilled in some quarters,” he said.While traditional hawks of Trump’s Republican Party largely cheered the Iran strikes, they were widely but not universally denounced by rival Democrats.Annelle Sheline, who resigned from the State Department to protest policies under former president Joe Biden and is now at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said it was critical for Trump to enforce the ceasefire.She noted Israel has bombed Lebanon and Gaza during truces, saying Netanyahu believed he enjoyed “America’s unconditional support.””Trump demonstrated that he can rein in Israel when he chooses to do so. Now he must do the same to insist on a ceasefire in Gaza,” she said.

Israel’s Netanyahu vows to block Iran ‘nuclear weapon’ as he declares victory

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared a “historic victory” on Tuesday after agreeing a ceasefire with Iran and insisted that his country’s arch-foe would never achieve a nuclear weapon.The premier’s comments, delivered in an address to the nation, came after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country was willing to return to negotiations over its nuclear programme.Pezeshkian insisted, however, that Iran would continue to “assert its legitimate rights” to the peaceful use of atomic energy.”Iran will not have a nuclear weapon,” Netanyahu said after the ceasefire ended 12 days of deadly air and missile strikes between the arch foes.”We have thwarted Iran’s nuclear project. And if anyone in Iran tries to rebuild it, we will act with the same determination, with the same intensity, to foil any attempt.”Israel’s strikes eventually drew in the United States, which on Sunday hit Iran’s underground nuclear facilities with powerful “bunker-buster” bombs that Israel lacked.After Iran retaliated with a missile attack Monday night targeting a US base in Qatar, President Donald Trump called for de-escalation, announcing the contours of a truce deal hours later.In a phone call Tuesday, Pezeshkian told his Emirati counterpart “to explain to them, in your dealings with the United States, that the Islamic Republic of Iran is only seeking to assert its legitimate rights”. “It has never sought to acquire nuclear weapons and does not seek them,” he was quoted as saying by the official IRNA news agency, adding that Iran was “ready to resolve the issues… at the negotiating table”.Israel has said its war, which began on June 13, was aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, an ambition Tehran has consistently denied.Israel’s military said that its strikes had set back Iran’s nuclear programme “by years” and that the campaign against the country was now “entering a new phase”.After Trump angrily berated both sides for early violations of the truce on Tuesday, Tehran announced it would respect the terms of the deal if Israel did the same, while Israel said it had refrained from further strikes.- Claims of victory -Before Netanyahu spoke, Israel’s government said its military had removed the “dual existential threat” of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes.”We’ve set Iran’s nuclear project back by years, and the same applies to its missile programme,” Israel’s chief of staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir said in a later statement.Iran’s top security body, meanwhile, said the Islamic republic’s forces had “compelled” Israel to “unilaterally” stand down.Its Revolutionary Guards also hailed a last-minute missile salvo fired at Israel as “a historic and unforgettable lesson to the Zionist enemy”.- Strikes on US base -Israeli strikes hit nuclear and military targets — killing scientists and senior military figures — as well as residential areas, prompting waves of Iranian missile fire on Israel.While Iran and Israel have been locked in a shadow war for decades, it has been by far the most destructive confrontation between the arch-foes.The war culminated in US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites using massive bunker-busting bombs, followed by an Iranian reprisal targeting the largest US military facility in the Middle East.Trump shrugged off that response as “weak”, thanking Tehran for giving advance notice and announcing the outline of the ceasefire just hours later. – ‘Everyone is tired’ -Some Israelis on Tuesday welcomed the prospect of a truce.”Everyone is tired. We just want to have some peace of mind,” said Tel Aviv resident Tammy Shel, voicing hope for a lasting ceasefire. “For us, for the Iranian people, for the Palestinians, for everyone in the region.”In Iran, people remained uncertain whether the peace would hold. Amir, 28, fled from Tehran to the Caspian Sea coast and told AFP by phone, “I really don’t know… about the ceasefire but honestly, I don’t think things will return to normal.”Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 610 civilians and wounded more than 4,700, according to the health ministry.Iran’s attacks on Israel have killed 28 people, according to official figures and rescuers.The international community reacted with cautious optimism to the truce.Saudi Arabia and the European Union welcomed Trump’s announcement, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia hoped “that this will be a sustainable ceasefire”.But French President Emmanuel Macron warned there was an “increased” risk that Iran would attempt to enrich uranium secretly following the strikes on its nuclear sites.During their talks, Iran and the United States had been at odds over uranium enrichment, which Tehran considers a “non-negotiable” right and which Washington has called a “red line”. After the truce was announced, Israel’s military chief Zamir said Israel’s focus would now shift back to Gaza.The Israeli opposition, the Palestinian Authority and the main group representing the families of Israeli hostages all called for a Gaza truce to complement the Iran ceasefire. burs-dcp/kir

Shadowy extremist group claims Damascus church attack

A little-known Sunni Muslim extremist group claimed responsibility on Tuesday for a weekend suicide attack against a church in Damascus, while the Syrian government insisted they were part of the Islamic State group.Sunday’s attack killed 25 people and wounded dozens, striking terror into Syria’s Christian community and other minorities.A statement from Saraya Ansar al-Sunna said an operative “blew up the Saint Elias church in the Dwelaa neighbourhood of Damascus”, adding that it came after an unspecified “provocation”.Syria’s Islamist authorities, who took power after ousting longtime ruler Bashar al-Assad in December, had quickly blamed the attack on the Islamic State group and announced several arrests on Monday in a security operation against IS-affiliated cells.IS did not claim responsibility for the attack.The Saraya Ansar al-Sunna statement, on the messaging app Telegram, said the government’s version of events was “untrue, fabricated”.The spokesman for the interior ministry, Nureddine al-Baba, said during a press conference on Tuesday that the cell behind the attack “officially follows Daesh”, adding that Saraya Ansar al-Sunna was ” not independent… as it follows Daesh”.Daesh is the Arabic acronym for IS.Baba also said that the church attacker was not Syrian, without specifying his nationality, and came to Damascus with another suicide bomber from the al-Hol camp in the northeast, which hosts displaced people and relatives of IS members.Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi, a Syria-based analyst and researcher, said Saraya Ansar al-Sunna could be “a pro-IS splinter originating primarily from defectors from HTS… and other factions but currently operating independently of IS”.Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is the Islamist group headed by Syria’s now-President Ahmed al-Sharaa that led the overthrow of Assad.Baba said it could be “just an IS front group”.Citing a source within the group, Tamimi said a disillusioned former HTS functionary headed Saraya.He added that its leadership included a former member of Hurras al-Din, an Al-Qaeda affiliate that announced in January it was dissolving on the orders of the new government.- ‘Heinous crime’ -At the funeral of some of those killed in Damascus’s Holy Cross Church, Greek Orthodox Patriarch of Antioch and All the East John X called the attack an “unacceptable incident”.Addressing Sharaa, the patriarch said “the heinous crime that took place at Mar Elias Church is the first massacre of its kind in Syria since 1860”, referring to the mass killings of Christians in Damascus under the Ottoman Empire.”We refuse for these events to take place during the revolution and during your honourable era.”Sharaa had called the patriarchate’s adviser to send his condolences, an act John X called “insufficient”.To ululations and tears, nine white coffins were carried into the church, amid a heavy security presence in the area.”These events are fleeting and have no value in history,” teacher Raji Rizkallah, 50, told AFP.”Christianity is a deeply rooted and permanent part of this land, and extremists are heretics.”Assad’s government portrayed itself as a protector of minorities, who were subject to numerous attacks claimed by jihadist groups during the 14-year civil war.The new authorities have repeatedly pledged to protect minorities, despite the eruption of sectarian violence on multiple occasions in recent months.The suicide bombing followed massacres of members of the Alawite sect to which Assad belongs and clashes with Druze fighters.The bloodshed has raised concerns about the government’s ability to control radical fighters who took part in Assad’s overthrow.HTS was once affiliated with Al-Qaeda before breaking ties in 2016.

How Iran’s ‘telegraphed’ strikes on Qatari soil paved way to Israel truce

Iran’s unprecedented strikes on a US base in Qatar were carefully calculated to provide an exit from hostilities with Washington and set up a truce with Israel, according to analysts and an official.Monday’s missile launches were signalled well in advance, minimising the risk of injury and giving every opportunity to shoot down the projectiles — resulting in a fireworks display of booms and flashes above Doha.They followed heavy US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at the weekend, a sudden escalation that raised concerns about how Tehran, after more than a week of exchanges with Israel, would respond.In the event, gas-rich Qatar, 190 kilometres (120 miles) south of Iran across the Gulf, held the answer in the form of Al Udeid, the Middle East’s biggest US base and headquarters of its regional command.Targeting a United States base, rather than inciting fury, triggered a calm reaction from President Donald Trump, who thanked Iran for giving “early notice”.Qatar condemned the strikes — Iran’s first on a Gulf country’s territory — but its prime minister said the response would be diplomatic and legal, rather than military.Hours after the attack, Trump announced a ceasefire that both Israel and Iran later said they would accept. A source with knowledge of the talks said Doha had spoken to Tehran and “persuaded” it to stop fighting.- ‘Off ramp’ -Chatham House geopolitics specialist Neil Quilliam said the attack was “clearly limited” and “intended to satisfy Iran’s population that its leadership responded forcibly to the US air strikes on Saturday”.Iran had promised to inflict “serious, unpredictable consequences” on the US for joining its ally Israel’s campaign against the Islamic republic with strikes on three nuclear sites.The wealthy Gulf states, which host a number of US military sites, had been preparing for days for a possible strike by Iran. A week before Qatar was targeted, Bahrain, home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, tested its civil defence sirens.Also last week, dozens of US military aircraft disappeared from the tarmac at Al Udeid, according to satellite images published by Planet Labs PBC and analysed by AFP.In the hours before the attack, the US embassy in Qatar advised Americans there not to go out, with some other Western embassies echoing the warning.Shortly before the strikes, air traffic was suspended over Qatar “as part of a set of precautionary measures”, the country’s foreign ministry said.Ali Vaez, senior advisor at the International Crisis Group said Iran’s action against Qatar was “symbolic” and “calibrated and telegraphed in a way that would not result in any American casualties, so that there is an off-ramp for both sides”.- ‘Taken this punch’ -According to the source with knowledge of the talks, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani spoke to the Iranians at Washington’s request after the strikes.Trump told Qatar’s emir that Israel had agreed to a ceasefire, before US Vice President JD Vance spoke to the prime minister “who persuaded Iran to agree to the proposal in a call with the Iranians”, the source said.Vaez said the “good relationship between Iran and Qatar is the reason that Iran opted to strike… the Al Udeid base in Qatar”.Before the attack, there had been speculation that Iran could target US forces based in Iraq or elsewhere in the region.”I see this as a continuation of Qatar’s mediation between Iran and the United States, that it has taken this punch as a means of trying to prevent further escalation,” Vaez added.Quilliam said: “While Qatar’s official responses to the attacks condemned Iran, it also pushed forward a deeper message about ending conflict in the region.”

Ceasefire in Iran-Israel war takes hold

A fragile ceasefire in the Iran-Israel war appeared to be holding on Tuesday, after 12 days of strikes that saw Israel and the United States pummel the Islamic republic’s nuclear facilities.After US President Donald Trump, who had first declared the ceasefire, angrily berated both sides for violating it, Iran announced it would respect the truce if Israel did, while Israel said it had refrained from further strikes.Israel, in announcing it had agreed to Trump’s plan, said it had achieved all its military objectives.Iran initially stopped short of officially accepting the proposal, but President Masoud Pezeshkian later said that if “the Zionist regime does not violate the ceasefire, Iran will not violate it either”.Israel had accused Iran of firing missiles at it after the truce was meant to have come into effect — which Tehran denied — vowing to respond.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office later said Israel had “destroyed a radar installation near Tehran” in retaliation, but had “refrained from further strikes” following a phone call between Trump and the premier.On his way to attend a NATO summit in The Hague, Trump had publicly castigated both countries for violating the truce, and demanded Israel call off what he characterised as an imminent attack, later saying “the Ceasefire is in effect!”- Claims of victory -Both Israel and Iran appeared to claim victory following the announcement of the truce.The Israeli government said Netanyahu had convened his cabinet “to announce that Israel had achieved all the objectives of Operation Rising Lion and much more”.It added that it had removed “an immediate dual existential threat: nuclear and ballistic”, while vowing to respond forcefully to any violations of the ceasefire.Iran’s top security body, meanwhile, said the Islamic republic’s forces had “compelled” Israel to “unilaterally” stand down.Its Revolutionary Guards also hailed a missile salvo fired at Israel “in the final moments before the ceasefire”, saying it taught “a historic and unforgettable lesson to the Zionist enemy”.Israeli rescuers reported four people killed when a missile struck a residential building in the southern city of Beersheba early Tuesday.In Iran, state television said an overnight Israeli strike in the north killed nuclear scientist Mohammad Reza Seddighi Saber, who was under US sanctions.- Strikes on US base -Israel first launched its campaign against Iran on June 13, hitting nuclear and military sites as well as residential areas, and prompting waves of Iranian missile attacks on Israel.While Iran and Israel have been locked in a shadow war for decades, this has been by far the most destructive confrontation between the arch-foes.The war also saw US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities using massive bunker-busting bombs, followed by an Iranian missile attack targeting a US military base in Qatar.Calling for de-escalation, Trump said Tehran had given advance notice of the barrage, and announced the contours of the ceasefire just hours later.Iran’s National Security Council confirmed having targeted the base “in response to the US aggressive and insolent action against Iran’s nuclear sites and facilities”.It added that the number of missiles launched “was the same as the number of bombs that the US had used” against Iran.Ali Vaez, Iran project director for the International Crisis Group, told AFP: “This was calibrated and telegraphed in a way that would not result in any American casualties, so that there is an off ramp for both sides.”- ‘Everyone is tired’ -Some Israelis on Tuesday welcomed the prospect of a truce.”I am so tired. Everyone is tired. We just want to have some peace of mind,” said Tel Aviv resident Tammy Shel, voicing hope for a lasting ceasefire. “For us, for the Iranian people, for the Palestinians, for everyone in the region.”Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 610 civilians and wounded more than 4,700, according to the health ministry.Iran’s attacks on Israel have killed 28 people, according to official figures and rescuers.The international community reacted with cautious optimism to news of the truce.Saudi Arabia and the European Union welcomed Trump’s announcement, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia hoped “that this will be a sustainable ceasefire”.China’s foreign ministry said it supported Iran in “achieving a genuine ceasefire so that people can return to normal life”.But French President Emmanuel Macron warned there was an “increased” risk that Iran would attempt to enrich uranium secretly following the US and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites.Some turned their sights to the ongoing fighting between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, arguing it was time to bring an end to that war too.The Palestinian Authority, Israel’s opposition leader and the main group representing the families of Israeli hostages all called for a Gaza ceasefire. The soaring death toll in the Palestinian territory has prompted months of international criticism of Israel’s conduct of the war, even from staunch allies.German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Tuesday that “the moment has come to conclude a ceasefire for Gaza”, adding that his country supported Israel but reserved the right to “critically question what Israel wants to achieve in the Gaza Strip”.burs-smw/kir