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Widespread destruction, massive military spending and plummeting oil and gold revenues have left Sudan’s economy in “very difficult times”, army-aligned finance minister Gibril Ibrahim said, nearly three years into the army’s war with rival paramilitary forces.In an interview with AFP from his office in Port Sudan, Ibrahim said the government is eyeing deals for Red Sea ports and private investment to help rebuild infrastructure.This week, Sudan’s prime minister announced the government’s official return to Khartoum, recaptured last year, but Ibrahim’s ministry is among those yet to fully return.Dressed in combat uniform, the former rebel leader said Sudan, already one of the world’s poorest countries before the war, “lost all sources of state revenue in the beginning of the war”, when the Rapid Support Forces overtook the capital Khartoum and its surroundings.”Most of the industry, most of the big companies and all of the economic activity was concentrated in the centre,” he said, saying the heartland had accounted for some 80 percent of state revenue.Ibrahim’s ex-rebel group the Justice and Equality Movement once battled Khartoum’s government but it has fought on the army’s side as part of the Joint Forces coalition of armed groups.- Smuggling -Sudan, rich in oil, gold deposits and arable land, is currently suffering the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, with over half of its population in need of aid to survive.Gold production is rising year-on-year, but “unfortunately, much of it has been smuggled… across borders, through different countries, and going to the Gulf, mainly to the United Arab Emirates”, he said.Of the 70 tonnes produced in 2025, only “20 tonnes have been exported through official channels”.In 2024, Sudan produced 64 tonnes of gold, bringing in only $1.57 billion to the state’s depleted coffers, with much of the revenue spilling out via smuggling networks.Agricultural exports have fallen 43 percent, with much of the country’s productive gum arabic, sesame and peanut-growing regions in paramilitary hands, in the western Darfur and southern Kordofan regions.Sudan’s livestock industry, also based predominantly in Darfur, has lost 55 percent of its exports, he said.Since the RSF captured the army’s last holdout position in Darfur in October, the war’s worst fighting has shifted east to the oil-rich Kordofan region.While both sides scramble for control of the territory, the country’s oil revenues have dropped by more than 50 percent — its most productive refinery, Al-Jaili near Khartoum, severely damaged.- ‘Reconstruction’ -Determined to defeat the RSF, authorities allocated 40 percent of last year’s budget to the war effort, up from 36 percent in 2024, according to Ibrahim, who did not specify amounts.Yet the cost of reconstruction in areas regained by the army is immense: in December 2024, the government estimated it would need $200 billion to rebuild.Authorities are currently eyeing public-private partnership, with firms that “are ready to spend money” including on infrastructure, Ibrahim said.Sudan’s long Red Sea coast has over the years drawn the interest of foreign actors eager for a base on the vital waterway, through which around 12 percent of global trade passes.”We will see which partner is the best to build a port,” the minister said, listing both Saudi Arabia and Qatar as “the main applicants”.An early-stage project for an Emirati economic zone had been agreed in principle, he said “and then the war erupted, and the UAE has been part of it”.”So I don’t think that project is going anywhere,” Ibrahim said, referring to widespread accusations of Abu Dhabi backing the RSF, which the UAE denies.The Russians, for their part, had also wanted “a small port where they can have supplies”, he said, adding that “they didn’t go ahead with that yet”.As the war rages on, Sudan shoulders a massive public debt bill, which in 2023 reached 253 percent of GDP, before falling slightly to 221 percent in 2025, according to figures reported by the International Monetary Fund.Sudan has known only triple-digit annual inflation for years. Figures for 2025 stood at 151 percent — down from a 2021 peak of 358. The currency has also collapsed, going from trading before the war at 570 Sudanese pounds against the dollar, to 3500 in 2026, according to the black market rate.Ibrahim, 71, first joined the government in 2021 as part of a short-lived transitional administration. He retained his position through a military coup later that year.He is among several Sudanese officials sanctioned by Washington in its attempt to “limit Islamist influence within Sudan and curtail Iran’s regional activities”.

US President Donald Trump announced a 25-percent tariff on any country doing business with Iran, ramping up pressure as a rights group estimated a crackdown on protests has killed at least 648 people.Iranian authorities insisted they have regained control after successive nights of mass protests nationwide since Thursday that have posed one of the biggest challenges to the clerical leadership since the 1979 Islamic revolution ousted the shah.But rights groups accuse the government of using live fire against protesters and masking the scale of the crackdown with an internet blackout that has now lasted more than four days. International phone calls however have resumed in Iran after being blocked for days, an AFP correspondent in Tehran said on Tuesday, but only outgoing calls could be made.Trump, who has repeatedly threatened Iran with military intervention, said in a social media post on Monday that the new levies would “immediately” hit the Islamic republic’s trading partners who also do business with the United States.”This order is final and conclusive,” he wrote, without specifying who it will affect. Iran’s main trading partners are China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, according to economic database Trading Economics.The White House said Monday that Trump remained “unafraid” to deploy military force against Iran, but was pursuing diplomacy as a first resort.  – Large-scale killings -The Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights (IHR) said it had confirmed 648 people killed during the protests, including nine minors, but warned the death toll was likely much higher — “according to some estimates, more than 6,000”.The internet shutdown has made it “extremely difficult to independently verify these reports”, IHR said, adding that an estimated 10,000 people had been arrested. “Iranian authorities have significantly intensified their lethal crackdown on protesters since January 8, with credible reports that security forces are carrying out large-scale killings across the country,” Human Rights Watch said.Iranian state media has said dozens of members of the security forces have been killed, with their funerals turning into large pro-government rallies. Authorities have declared three days of national mourning for those killed.Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking to Al Jazeera, insisted that the government had been “in dialogue” with the protesters in the initial phase of the movement and the internet was only cut “after we confronted terrorist operations and realised orders were coming from outside the country”.Addressing Trump’s threats, he added: “We are prepared for any eventuality and we hope Washington will choose a wise option. It doesn’t matter which option they choose, we are ready for it.”- ‘Last days’ -The government on Monday sought to regain control of the streets with mass nationwide rallies that supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei hailed as proof that the protest movement was defeated, in a “warning” to the United States. In power since 1989 and now 86, Khamenei has faced significant challenges, most recently the 12-day war in June against Israel which resulted in the killing of top security officials and forced him to go into hiding.”When a regime can only hold on to power through violence, then it is effectively finished,” said German Chancellor Friedrich Merz during a trip to India. “I believe that we are now witnessing the last days and weeks of this regime.”Analysts however have cautioned that it is premature to predict the immediate demise of the theocratic system, pointing to the repressive levers the leadership has, including the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which are charged with safeguarding the Islamic revolution.”These protests arguably represent the most serious challenge to the Islamic republic in years, both in scale and in their increasingly explicit political demands,” Nicole Grajewski, professor at the Sciences Po Centre for International Studies in Paris, told AFP.She said it was unclear if the protests would unseat the leadership, pointing to “the sheer depth and resilience of Iran’s repressive apparatus”.French President Emmanuel Macron issued a statement condemning “the state violence that indiscriminately targets Iranian women and men who courageously demand respect for their rights”. Prize-winning Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi told broadcaster France Inter: “The Iranian people are defenceless today, and despite all that, they are out on the streets.” Reza Pahlavi, the US-based son of Iran’s ousted shah who has been vocal in calling for protests, said Trump was a man who “means what he says and says what he means” and who “knows what’s at stake”.”The red line that was drawn has been definitely surpassed by this regime.” 

Since Israel recognised Somaliland last month, the self-declared republic on the Gulf of Aden has become central to a struggle over military access, ports and regional influence across the Red Sea corridor.Somaliland sits astride one of the world’s most strategic maritime choke points, flanked by multiple conflicts in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East.It declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but had never been recognised internationally until Israel’s move.Israel’s recognition was fiercely opposed by the Somali government as an attack on its territorial unity — a position backed by most African and Arab leaders. But Somaliland’s assets — most crucially the port and airfield at Berbera, which have been developed by the United Arab Emirates since 2016 to be capable of hosting large naval and air assets — outweighed any potential concern about the diplomatic fall-out.A Somaliland official, speaking anonymously to AFP, said new buildings and an airbase facility were recently completed at Berbera by the UAE, which has a 25-year concession to build a military base. “What is at stake right now is military access,” said Roland Marchal, an expert on the region with France’s National Centre for Scientific Research. “This is a shift from the recent past” when the focus was on commercial shipping, he added. – Israel and the UAE – For the Israelis, Somaliland offers a prime spot from which to attack Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have targeted Israel to show solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Berbera offers another hub for the quiet military cooperation between the UAE and Israel that has expanded since the Emiratis formally recognised Israel under the US-sponsored Abraham Accords in 2020. The UAE did not criticise Israel for recognising Somaliland. The Somali government said on Monday it was cancelling all agreements with the UAE for “undermining national sovereignty”.Analysts say the Emiratis are nonetheless unlikely to formally recognise Somaliland as that would worsen its already terrible relations with regional rival Saudi Arabia. The Saudis “would view (recognition) as another affront and another example of the UAE undermining Saudi Arabia’s authority and the ‘Arab consensus'”, said Anna Jacobs, a Gulf analyst.- Turkey and China – Turkey has sided with Somalia, its key strategic partner in the region — host of its largest international military base, a planned space-port and imminent oil-drilling projects. The fragmentation of Somalia “could jeopardise Turkey’s progress and interests in the country”, said Scott Romaniuk, a researcher at Budapest’s Corvinus University.Not to mention Turkey’s long-standing opposition to Israel’s war in Gaza and fear of encouraging its own separatists, the Kurds.  Turkey has nonetheless maintained a foothold in Somaliland, said Federico Donelli of the University of Trieste, and is closely allied with the UAE in other areas — highlighting the complexity of regional dynamics.Meanwhile, Somaliland is the only African territory, besides the tiny state of Eswatini, to recognise Taiwan — enough to attract the ire of China, which also has significant investments in Somalia. – United States -Washington defended what it said was its Israeli ally’s right to recognise Somaliland, although President Donald Trump said he was unlikely to follow suit, despite pressure from some within his Republican party.”The United States is not at all in a position to recognise Somaliland,” Marchal said. “The United States needs local allies. They can’t alienate Egypt, the Turks and Saudi Arabia (all supporters of Somalia) at the same time.”The United States can count on plenty of other military assets in the region, including ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf, and the Baledogle airfield in Somalia.- Somaliland -Lost in the geopolitical scramble is any assessment of Somaliland’s own case for independence. It has run its own affairs since 1991 and been far more stable and democratic than the rest of Somalia, but those are secondary considerations for its partners.”It’s sad because the merits of Somaliland aren’t discussed,” Marchal said. “What Somaliland has achieved, what it has failed at, is completely ignored.”

Over two weeks of protests mark the most serious challenge in years to Iran’s theocratic leadership in their scale and nature but it is too early to predict the immediate demise of the Islamic republic, analysts say.The demonstrations moved from protesting economic grievances to demanding a wholesale change from the clerical system that has ruled Iran since the 1979 revolution that ousted the shah. The authorities have unleashed a crackdown that, according to rights groups, has left hundreds dead while the rule of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now 86, remains intact.”These protests arguably represent the most serious challenge to the Islamic republic in years, both in scale and in their increasingly explicit political demands,” Nicole Grajewski, professor at the Sciences Po Centre for International Studies in Paris told AFP.She said it was unclear if the protests would unseat the leadership, pointing to “the sheer depth and resilience of Iran’s repressive apparatus”.The Iranian authorities have called their own counter rallies, with thousands attending on Monday.Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa, said: “At this point, I still don’t assess that the fall of the regime is imminent. That said, I am less confident in this assessment than in the past.”These are the key factors seen by analysts as determining whether the Islamic republic’s leadership will hold on to power.- Sustained protests – A key factor is “simply the size of protests; they are growing, but have not reached the critical mass that would represent a point of no return,” said Juneau. The protest movement began with strikes at the Tehran bazaar on December 28 but erupted into a full-scale challenge with mass rallies in the capital and other cities from Thursday.The last major protests were the 2022-2023 demonstrations sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini who had been arrested for allegedly violating the Islamic dress code for women. In 2009, mass rallies took place after disputed elections.But a multi-day internet shutdown imposed by Iranian authorities has hampered the ability to determine the magnitude of the current demonstrations, with fewer videos emerging.Arash Azizi, a lecturer at Yale University, said “the protesters still suffer from not having durable organised networks that can withstand oppression”.He said one option would be to “organise strikes in a strategic sector” but this required leadership that was still lacking.- Cohesion in the elite – While the situation on the streets is of paramount importance, analysts say there is little chance of a change without cracks and defections in the security forces and leadership.So far there has been no sign of this, with all the pillars of the Islamic republic from parliament to the president to the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) lining up behind Khamenei’s defiant line expressed in a speech on Friday.”At present, there are no clear signs of military defections or high-level elite splits within the regime. Historically, those are critical indicators of whether a protest movement can translate into regime collapse,” said Sciences Po’s Grajewski.Jason Brodsky, policy director at US-based group United Against Nuclear Iran, said the protests were “historic”.But he added: “It’s going to take a few different ingredients for the regime to fall,” including “defections in the security services and cracks in the Islamic republic’s political elite”.- Israeli or US military intervention -US President Donald Trump, who has threatened military retaliation over the crackdown, announced 25 percent tariffs on Monday against Iran’s trading partners.The White House said Trump was prioritising a diplomatic response, and has not ruled out strikes, after having briefly joined Israel’s 12-day war against Iran in June.That war resulted in the killing of several top Iranian security officials, forced Khamenei to go into hiding and revealed Israel’s deep intelligence penetration of the Islamic republic.US strikes would upend the situation, analysts say. The Iranian foreign ministry said on Monday it has channels of communication open with Washington despite the lack of diplomatic relations.”A direct US military intervention would fundamentally alter the trajectory of the crisis,” said Grajewski.Juneau added: “The regime is more vulnerable than it has been, domestically and geopolitically, since the worst years of the Iran-Iraq war” that lasted from 1980-1988.- Organised opposition – The US-based son of the ousted shah, Reza Pahlavi, has taken a major role in calling for protests and pro-monarchy slogans have been common chants.But with no real political opposition remaining inside Iran, the diaspora remains critically divided between political factions known for fighting each other as much as the Islamic republic.”There needs to be a leadership coalition that truly represents a broad swathe of Iranians and not just one political faction,” said Azizi.- Khamenei’s health – Khamenei has now been in power since 1989 when he became supreme leader, a post for life, following the death of revolutionary founder Ruhollah Khomeini.He survived the war with Israel and appeared in public on Friday to denounce the protests in typically defiant style.But uncertainty has long reigned over who could succeed him, with options including his shadowy but powerful son Mojtaba or power gravitating to a committee rather than an individual.Such a scenario between the status quo and a complete change could see “a more or less formal takeover by the Revolutionary Guards”, said Juneau.