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Netanyahu faces vote with coalition weakened by Gaza truce

With no majority in parliament and surrounded by allies outraged by his acceptance of a US-brokered Gaza ceasefire, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have set his sights on Israel’s next elections.A political phoenix, Netanyahu is the country’s longest-serving prime minister, has been its dominant political figure for decades and heads one of the most right-wing coalitions in Israel’s history.But he does not hold an absolute parliamentary majority after an ultra-Orthodox party quit in July, protesting against the government’s failure to pass a law to exempt its community from military service.The summer parliamentary recess came at just the right time to shield the government, which now holds just 60 of 120 seats, from motions of no confidence.But the resumption of the Knesset’s work on October 20 heralded the return of transactional politics and potential threats for the government.Under pressure from US President Donald Trump, Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire with Hamas that came into effect on October 10 after more than two years of war in Gaza.His far-right allies vehemently denounced the agreement, arguing that the military should retain control of the entire Gaza Strip and crush the Palestinian Islamist movement for good.And while they are not abandoning the ship of government, they are raising the price to keep them on board.- June 2026 election? -“The coalition has been weakened by the ceasefire agreement,” said independent analyst Michael Horowitz.”For Netanyahu, the issue is no longer so much about preserving his coalition until the end as it is about positioning himself to win the next elections — even if they are brought forward,” he told AFP.In a televised interview on October 18, Netanyahu said that he would run for office in the next elections and that he expected to win.Those polls are required to take place by late October 2026 but Netanyahu, who has just turned 76, may call early elections or be forced into a fresh vote if another of his allied parties abandons the ruling coalition.Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir has already threatened to stop voting with the coalition if his bill calling for “the death penalty for terrorists” is not put to a parliamentary vote by November 9.Netanyahu must grapple with ideological differences from his far-right partners, who favour resuming the war in Gaza with a view to taking over the territory, from which Israel unilaterally withdrew in 2005.He must also contend with pressure from his allies in the ultra-Orthodox Sephardic Shas party — which has 11 lawmakers and has distanced itself from the government.Without formally leaving the coalition, Shas ministers resigned from the cabinet in July over the issue of military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews.The coalition’s other ultra-Orthodox party, United Torah Judaism, quit both the government and the coalition.Several Israeli journalists including the high-profile Amit Segal, who is known to be close to Netanyahu, have suggested the premier would opt for June 2026 for early elections.For now, Netanyahu must overcome several obstacles to remain in power, most notably the issue of conscription for ultra-Orthodox Jews.Shas says it will pull its support unless military service exemption is enshrined in law, while the far-right and many in Netanyahu’s Likud party want to force ultra-Orthodox conscription.- Likud in front -If the fragile ceasefire holds, Netanyahu will also have to find post-war solutions for Gaza that will satisfy his far-right partners. They are demanding a vote on at least partial annexation of the occupied West Bank in return for what they see as the relinquishing of Gaza.The Trump administration has repeatedly expressed its opposition to such a move.Israeli financial newspaper Calcalist said that in a bid to shore up its unity, the coalition planned to swiftly pass laws that would give it a better chance of election victory.Among them would be the lowering of the threshold of votes needed to be represented in parliament — an apparent gift to Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, whose far-right Religious Zionism party would not reach the required limit under current rules, according to several polls.Another measure would be to lower the voting age to 17, which would give a demographic advantage to the ultra-Orthodox parties.Netanyahu, who is on trial in several corruption cases, is assured of being re-elected as head of Likud at the end of November, as there are no other candidates.And despite strong popular discontent with the government, his party remains the frontrunner according to all polls.

Trump meets Qatar leaders on way to Asia

US President Donald Trump on Saturday thanked Qatar’s emir and prime minister for being a “big factor” in helping secure a Gaza ceasefire deal, during a refueling stop on his way to Asia.The Qatari leaders boarded Air Force One when it landed at Al Udeid Air Base, which hosts the regional headquarters for the US military and thousands of American troops.Trump said the duo had played a crucial role in the Middle East peace process, adding that Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani had been his “friend to the world.””What we’ve done is incredible peace to the Middle East, and they were a very big factor in it,” Trump said.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, fresh off a trip to Israel as part of an all-out diplomatic push by Washington to keep the Gaza truce on track, was present for the meeting with Qatar’s leaders.Trump is traveling to Asia for the first time since retaking office in January, with two regional summits and face-to-face meetings with China’s Xi Jinping and other leaders on the agenda.Qatar has played a key mediating role in indirect talks between Israel and Hamas since the outbreak of the war, and is among the guarantors of the fragile peace deal, along with Egypt, the United States and Turkey.Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani hosted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week to discuss the highly sensitive next steps in the deal, including the establishment of a security force in Gaza and the fate of Hamas.Qatar’s prime minister has also been a key negotiator since the outbreak of the war following Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.The talks aboard Air Force One came as Israel conducted an air strike targeting an alleged Islamic Jihad militant in Gaza.Despite the ceasefire between Hamas, an ally of Islamic Jihad, and Israel, the latter reserves the right to defend itself and its forces from militant attacks.”Let’s see what they do over the next 48 hours. I am watching this very closely,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform after the talks with Qatar’s leaders.