AFP Asia Business

Iraqis head to the polls on Tuesday to elect a new parliament for a four-year term in a vote that will be closely watched in Washington and Tehran. Here is a look at what could come next and what the regional impact could be.- What happens after the vote? -Iraq’s Supreme Court must first ratify the election results.Two weeks later, the newly elected members of parliament should convene for a swearing-in ceremony and to choose their speaker, who by convention should be a member from the Sunni community.Within 30 days of their first meeting, lawmakers should elect the country’s president, who must be a Kurd and receive a two-thirds majority vote.The president then has to appoint within 15 days a prime minister, who will be named by the largest Shiite bloc, formed through post-election alliances.Once the prime minister is chosen, he has one month to form a government and present it to parliament for a vote of confidence.But these processes are often challenging, with deadlines frequently missed due to political bickering among rival factions.Parties tend to delay votes, opting instead for intensive talks, which can impact not only parliamentary proceedings but also cause unrest.- How is the government formed? -Naming a PM and forming a government has proven to be the most taxing post-election process.In previous parliaments, parties from the Shiite majority have struck compromise deals to work together and form a government.With an outright majority almost impossible to achieve by any single list, the next leader will be voted in by whichever coalition can attract allies and become the biggest bloc.In 2021, influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr’s bloc emerged as the biggest winner in parliament but still fell far short of an outright majority.He withdrew from parliament following a dispute with Shiite parties that did not support his bid to form a majority government.Instead, influential parties came together under the umbrella of the Coordination Framework and formed a larger bloc of pro-Iran groups and factions that brought PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to power. – What is the regional impact? – Like his predecessor, the next prime minister will have to maintain the delicate balance between Iraq’s allies, Iran and the US. Since the US-led invasion, Iran has seen its Shiite allies installed in Baghdad’s halls of power.For more than two decades, Tehran has held a major sway in Iraqi politics. It does not only back influential politicians but also supports armed groups.But the “Iranians are the weakest they’ve been” since 2003, said political analyst Hamzeh Hadad.The past two years have seen Israel inflict heavy losses on Iran-backed groups including Palestinian militants Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Huthis in Yemen.Iran itself was on the receiving end of an unprecedented Israeli bombing campaign in June.Tehran has several interests in Iraq ahead of the vote: retaining its influence, challenging the US with powerful Tehran-backed armed groups, and keeping the Iraqi market open to products from its crippled economy.But the Iranians “know it is not in their best interest to show much public interference” in Iraq, their only close regional ally that stayed out of Israel’s crosshairs, said Hadad.”Even when Iran is weak, it’s not necessary that it has to flex. It has just become a natural response of Iraqi leaders to give Iran more precedence,” he said.Washington on the other hand wants the opposite: to cripple Iran’s influence.It has long pressured Iraq to disarm Iran-backed groups.By sanctioning Iraqi entities and banks, it has sought to undermine Iran’s ability to evade sanctions — a strategy it is expected to maintain after Tuesday’s vote.

Syria is joining the global coalition against the Islamic State group, a US official said Monday hours after President Donald Trump welcomed his Syrian counterpart Ahmed al-Sharaa for historic White House talks.Sharaa, whose rebel forces ousted longtime ruler Bashar al-Assad late last year, was the first Syrian leader to visit the White House since the Middle Eastern country’s independence in 1946.But the 43-year-old’s landmark visit to the Oval Office came just days after Washington removed him from its terrorism list. Sharaa’s group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was formerly affiliated with Al-Qaeda.”During the visit, Syria announced that it is joining the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS,” becoming the 90th member of the alliance and “partnering with the United States to eliminate ISIS remnants and halt foreign fighter flows,” a senior administration official said.According to the official, Syria will also be allowed to resume diplomatic relations with Washington “to further counterterrorism, security, and economic coordination.”Trump said he wanted Syria to become “very successful” after more than a decade of civil war and added that he believed Sharaa “can do it, I really do.””He’s a very strong leader. He comes from a very tough place, and he’s a tough guy,” Trump told reporters after the meeting, which was closed to press.”People said he’s had a rough past, we’ve all had rough pasts… And I think, frankly, if you didn’t have a rough past, you wouldn’t have a chance.”Trump said Syria was a “big part” of his plan for a wider Middle East peace plan, which the US president is hoping will prop up the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.”Having a stable and successful Syria is very important to all countries in the Region,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform after the meeting.Despite this, Trump would not confirm reports that Syria would sign any non-aggression pact with long-term foe Israel.Afterwards Sharaa was interviewed by broadcaster Fox News, saying Syria’s ongoing dispute with Israel over the Golan Heights territory would make entering peace talks difficult now. But he suggested talks facilitated by Trump and Washington could help start negotiations.The Syrian president’s visit capped a remarkable turnaround for a former jihadist who once had a $10 million US bounty on his head.In dramatic scenes as he left his meeting with Trump, he climbed out of his motorcade to greet crowds of supporters outside the White House, surrounded on all sides by bodyguards.- ‘Astonishing transformation’ -Syria’s presidency said on X that Sharaa and Trump discussed the bilateral relationship, “the ways to strengthen and develop it, as well as a number of regional and international issues of common interest.”It published photos of Trump standing and shaking hands with a smiling Sharaa beside the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office.Other pictures showed the Syrian leader sitting opposite Trump with top US officials including Vice President JD Vance, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth and top US military officer Dan Caine.Since taking power, Syria’s new leaders have sought to break from their violent past and present a more moderate image to ordinary Syrians and foreign powers.Sharaa’s White House visit is “a hugely symbolic moment for the country’s new leader, who thus marks another step in his astonishing transformation from militant leader to global statesman,” said Michael Hanna, US program director at the International Crisis Group.The Syrian met Trump for the first time in Saudi Arabia during the US leader’s regional tour in May. At the time the 79-year-old Trump dubbed Sharaa, 43, as “a young, attractive guy.”Sharaa was expected to seek US funds for Syria, which faces significant challenges in rebuilding after 13 years of devastating civil war.After his arrival in Washington, Sharaa over the weekend met with International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva over possible aid.Sharaa’s jihadist past has caused controversy in some quarters but the State Department’s decision Friday to remove him from the blacklist was widely expected.The Syrian president has also been making diplomatic outreach towards Washington’s rivals. He met Russian President Vladimir Putin in October in their first meeting since the removal of Assad, a key Kremlin ally.

US President Donald Trump hailed his Syrian counterpart Ahmed al-Sharaa after unprecedented talks at the White House Monday, saying Sharaa’s “rough” past as a jihadist would help him rebuild the war-torn country.Sharaa, whose rebel forces ousted longtime ruler Bashar al-Assad late last year, was the first Syrian leader to visit the White House since the Middle Eastern country’s independence in 1946.But the 43-year-old’s landmark visit to the Oval Office came just days after Washington removed him from its terrorism list. Sharaa’s group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was formerly affiliated with Al-Qaeda.Trump said he wanted Syria to become “very successful” after more than a decade of civil war and added that he believed Sharaa “can do it, I really do.””He’s a very strong leader. He comes from a very tough place, and he’s a tough guy,” Trump told reporters after the meeting, which was closed to press.”People said he’s had a rough past, we’ve all had rough pasts…And I think, frankly, if you didn’t have a rough past, you wouldn’t have a chance.”Trump said Syria was a “big part” of his plan for a wider Middle East peace plan, which the US president is hoping will prop up the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.But he would not confirm reports that Sharaa would bring Syria into the international US-led alliance against the Islamic State (IS) group, or that it would sign any non-aggression pact with long-term foe Israel.The Syrian president’s visit capped a remarkable turnaround for a former jihadist who once had a $10 million US bounty on his head.In dramatic scenes as he left his meeting with Trump, he climbed out of his motorcade to greet crowds of supporters outside the White House, surrounded on all sides by bodyguards.- ‘Astonishing transformation’ -Syria’s presidency said on X that Sharaa and Trump discussed the bilateral relationship, “the ways to strengthen and develop it, as well as a number of regional and international issues of common interest.”It published photos of Trump standing and shaking hands with a smiling Sharaa beside the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office.Other pictures showed the Syrian leader sitting opposite Trump with top US officials including Vice President JD Vance, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth and top US military officer Dan Caine.Since taking power, Syria’s new leaders have sought to break from their violent past and present a more moderate image to ordinary Syrians and foreign powers.Sharaa’s White House visit is “a hugely symbolic moment for the country’s new leader, who thus marks another step in his astonishing transformation from militant leader to global statesman,” said Michael Hanna, US program director at the International Crisis Group.The Syrian met Trump for the first time in Saudi Arabia during the US leader’s regional tour in May. At the time the 79-year-old Trump dubbed Sharaa, 43, as “a young, attractive guy.”Sharaa was expected to seek US funds for Syria, which faces significant challenges in rebuilding after 13 years of devastating civil war.After his arrival in Washington, Sharaa over the weekend met with IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva over possible aid.Sharaa’s jihadist past has caused controversy in some quarters but the State Department’s decision Friday to remove Sharaa from the blacklist was widely expected.The Syrian president has also been making diplomatic outreach towards Washington’s rivals. He met Russian President Vladimir Putin in October in their first meeting since the removal of Assad, a key Kremlin ally.

US mediator Jared Kushner and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held talks Monday on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, as Washington intensified its efforts to ensure the fragile truce endures.Netanyahu, meanwhile, said Israel would enforce the ceasefire in Gaza as well as one in Lebanon with an “iron fist”.The truce in Gaza, in effect for a month now, has largely halted the war that erupted after Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.During the ongoing first stage, a series of prisoner and hostage exchanges took place over recent weeks.Kushner, the son-in-law of US President Donald Trump who helped broker the ceasefire, met Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Monday as part of US efforts to stabilise the truce and lay the groundwork for its next phase.The two discussed some of the most sensitive aspects of phase two, Israeli government spokeswoman Shosh Bedrosian told journalists.”Together the two discussed phase one, which we are currently still in, to bring our remaining hostages, and the future of phase two of this plan, which includes the disarming of Hamas, demilitarising Gaza and ensuring Hamas will have no role in the future of Gaza ever again,” Bedrosian said.”Phase two also includes the establishment of the international stabilisation force and the details of which of course together are being discussed.”Hamas has repeatedly insisted that relinquishing its weapons is a red line.- ‘Iron fist’ -Israel and Hamas continue to accuse each other of violating the ceasefire in Gaza.Gaza’s health ministry said Israeli forces have killed at least 242 Palestinians in the territory since the ceasefire began on October 10.On Monday, the Israeli military said it killed two militants who approached the so-called “Yellow Line,” the boundary beyond which Israeli forces hold their positions in Gaza. Media restrictions in Gaza and difficulties in accessing many areas mean AFP is unable to independently verify details provided by the ministry or the Israeli military.”Whoever seeks to harm us, we harm them,” Netanyahu said in parliament on Monday.”We are determined to enforce with an iron fist the ceasefire agreements where they exist against those who seek our destruction, and you can see what happens every day in Lebanon,” he said.Israel has kept up attacks on Lebanon, where it says it is targeting Hezbollah militants. It agreed a ceasefire to halt a war with the group last November, but has frequently bombed Lebanon since then.It said on Monday it had killed 15 Hezbollah members this month.Egypt, Qatar and Turkey are among the potential participants in the proposed international stabilisation force for Gaza, but the United Arab Emirates has indicated it is unlikely to join without a clear operational framework.”Under such circumstances, the UAE will probably not participate in such a force,” Emirati presidential adviser Anwar Gargash told the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate Forum on Monday.Turkey has been keen to join, but Netanyahu has repeatedly said Israel would not allow it.”The prime minister said… there will be no Turkish boots on the ground,” Bedrosian said.Michael Milshtein, who heads the Palestinian studies program at Tel Aviv University, said the decision regarding the stabilisation force will ultimately rest with Trump.”There is a gap between the Israeli opinion and the American opinion but in the end, the only thing that matters is what Trump wants, not what Netanyahu thinks,” Milshtein told AFP.Turkey has been one of the most outspoken critics of the war in Gaza, and on Friday it issued arrest warrants accusing Netanyahu and several senior Israeli officials of genocide.- ‘We still do not feel safe’ -Since the truce began, Hamas has returned all 20 living hostages and the remains of 24 captives, including 21 Israelis. Four bodies of hostages killed in the October 2023 attack remain in Gaza.In exchange, Israel has freed nearly 2,000 prisoners and returned 315 bodies of Palestinian captives.The latest of those were the remains of 15 Palestinians handed over by Israel on Monday after Hamas a day earlier returned the remains of Lieutenant Hadar Goldin, killed in the 2014 Gaza war.Goldin, killed while attempting to destroy Hamas tunnels near Rafah, had been missing for 11 years.”Time has stood still,” his sister Ayelet Goldin said in a statement on Monday.Despite the progress in hostage returns, Gazans remain anxious about their future.”We still do not feel safe. Shooting continues… We try to protect our children from psychological trauma and to help them forget the war,” said Salma Abu Shawish, 40, a resident of Al-Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza.”Life in Gaza is hard. We still lack food, and many families remain homeless. We only wish this nightmare would stop and never return.”

A Saudi doctor went on trial in Germany Monday accused of driving an SUV through a Christmas market, killing six people and wounding more than 300.Taleb Jawad al-Abdulmohsen, a 51-year-old psychiatrist, was arrested next to the battered rental vehicle after the attack on December 20, 2024 in the eastern city of Magdeburg.Prosecutor Matthias Boettcher told the court that the accused wanted “to kill a large number of people” by driving the two-tonne vehicle “deliberately into a mass of pedestrians”.A nine-year-old boy and five women aged between 45 and 75 were killed.Abdulmohsen — a critic of Islam and an adherent of far-right views and radical conspiracy theories — was motivated by anger over “supposed insults and frustration”, Boettcher said.As the trial started, Abdulmohsen, with a long, greying beard, smiled as he was seated in a bullet-proof cubicle then followed the rest of the proceedings without visible emotion.He faces six counts of murder and 338 counts of attempted murder in a trial expected to last until at least March.To accommodate the hundreds of victims and witnesses, the trial is being held in a large temporary hall.Abdulmohsen faces life in prison if convicted.- ‘I drove the car’ -On Monday afternoon he addressed the court himself for around an hour and a half, admitting, “I am the one who drove the car” but did not show any remorse.The rest of his speech consisted of rambling diatribes against politicians, police and the media, as well as seemingly unrelated sections about religion, violence against women in Saudi Arabia and other topics.Occasionally he stopped to cry and blow his nose.At one point the presiding judge intervened to remind him to stay on the topic of the charges he faces.Abdulmohsen is due to continue addressing the court on Tuesday.Abdulmohsen arrived in Germany in 2006 and was granted refugee status 10 years later.Active as a migrant rights campaigner, he was also a prolific social media user, writing rambling posts critical of Islam and repeating far-right conspiracy theories.The spark for the attack seems to have been a court ruling against Abdulmohsen in a civil lawsuit brought by other refugee activists.The rampage, which came after another deadly attack at a Christmas market in Berlin in 2016, provoked a heated debate about the security of the festive installations.Some cities have cancelled the beloved winter tradition because of the cost of anti-terrorism measures.On Monday, the mayor of Magdeburg, Simone Borris, told a council meeting that state authorities had refused permission for the city’s Christmas market to open for now due to security concerns.- Market security concerns -The market, due to open on November 20, has been told to install access controls and barriers that can stop vehicles weighing up to 7.5 tonnes, the city administration said in a statement on its website.Potential security flaws at last year’s market are due to be examined as part of the trial.Magdeburg resident Birgit Lange, 57, told AFP that the attack had made her “more alert”.She said she would still be going to the Christmas market this year because “if we all hid away it wouldn’t help anyone.”The Magdeburg attack was one of several committed by foreign nationals that inflamed Germany’s debate on immigration in the run-up to a general election in February.That election saw the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) place second with a record 20 percent of the vote.The party is now riding high in opinion polls in Saxony-Anhalt state, of which Magdeburg is the capital, and observers say it has a real chance of taking control of a state for the first time in elections next year.As the trial began, Abdulmohsen held up a laptop with the words “Sept 2026” displayed on its screen, the date of the election.