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Over two weeks of protests mark the most serious challenge in years to Iran’s theocratic leadership in their scale and nature but it is too early to predict the immediate demise of the Islamic republic, analysts say.The demonstrations moved from protesting economic grievances to demanding a wholesale change from the clerical system that has ruled Iran since the 1979 revolution that ousted the shah. The authorities have unleashed a crackdown that, according to rights groups, has left hundreds dead while the rule of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now 86, remains intact.”These protests arguably represent the most serious challenge to the Islamic republic in years, both in scale and in their increasingly explicit political demands,” Nicole Grajewski, professor at the Sciences Po Centre for International Studies in Paris told AFP.She said it was unclear if the protests would unseat the leadership, pointing to “the sheer depth and resilience of Iran’s repressive apparatus”.The Iranian authorities have called their own counter rallies, with thousands attending on Monday.Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa, said: “At this point, I still don’t assess that the fall of the regime is imminent. That said, I am less confident in this assessment than in the past.”These are the key factors seen by analysts as determining whether the Islamic republic’s leadership will hold on to power.- Sustained protests – A key factor is “simply the size of protests; they are growing, but have not reached the critical mass that would represent a point of no return,” said Juneau. The protest movement began with strikes at the Tehran bazaar on December 28 but erupted into a full-scale challenge with mass rallies in the capital and other cities from Thursday.The last major protests were the 2022-2023 demonstrations sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini who had been arrested for allegedly violating the Islamic dress code for women. In 2009, mass rallies took place after disputed elections.But a multi-day internet shutdown imposed by Iranian authorities has hampered the ability to determine the magnitude of the current demonstrations, with fewer videos emerging.Arash Azizi, a lecturer at Yale University, said “the protesters still suffer from not having durable organised networks that can withstand oppression”.He said one option would be to “organise strikes in a strategic sector” but this required leadership that was still lacking.- Cohesion in the elite – While the situation on the streets is of paramount importance, analysts say there is little chance of a change without cracks and defections in the security forces and leadership.So far there has been no sign of this, with all the pillars of the Islamic republic from parliament to the president to the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) lining up behind Khamenei’s defiant line expressed in a speech on Friday.”At present, there are no clear signs of military defections or high-level elite splits within the regime. Historically, those are critical indicators of whether a protest movement can translate into regime collapse,” said Sciences Po’s Grajewski.Jason Brodsky, policy director at US-based group United Against Nuclear Iran, said the protests were “historic”.But he added: “It’s going to take a few different ingredients for the regime to fall,” including “defections in the security services and cracks in the Islamic republic’s political elite”.- Israeli or US military intervention -US President Donald Trump, who has threatened military retaliation over the crackdown, announced 25 percent tariffs on Monday against Iran’s trading partners.The White House said Trump was prioritising a diplomatic response, and has not ruled out strikes, after having briefly joined Israel’s 12-day war against Iran in June.That war resulted in the killing of several top Iranian security officials, forced Khamenei to go into hiding and revealed Israel’s deep intelligence penetration of the Islamic republic.US strikes would upend the situation, analysts say. The Iranian foreign ministry said on Monday it has channels of communication open with Washington despite the lack of diplomatic relations.”A direct US military intervention would fundamentally alter the trajectory of the crisis,” said Grajewski.Juneau added: “The regime is more vulnerable than it has been, domestically and geopolitically, since the worst years of the Iran-Iraq war” that lasted from 1980-1988.- Organised opposition – The US-based son of the ousted shah, Reza Pahlavi, has taken a major role in calling for protests and pro-monarchy slogans have been common chants.But with no real political opposition remaining inside Iran, the diaspora remains critically divided between political factions known for fighting each other as much as the Islamic republic.”There needs to be a leadership coalition that truly represents a broad swathe of Iranians and not just one political faction,” said Azizi.- Khamenei’s health – Khamenei has now been in power since 1989 when he became supreme leader, a post for life, following the death of revolutionary founder Ruhollah Khomeini.He survived the war with Israel and appeared in public on Friday to denounce the protests in typically defiant style.But uncertainty has long reigned over who could succeed him, with options including his shadowy but powerful son Mojtaba or power gravitating to a committee rather than an individual.Such a scenario between the status quo and a complete change could see “a more or less formal takeover by the Revolutionary Guards”, said Juneau.

US President Donald Trump announced a 25 percent tariff on any country doing business with Iran, ramping up pressure as a rights group estimated a crackdown on protests has killed at least 648 people.Trump, who has repeatedly threatened Iran with military intervention, said in a social media post on Monday that the new levies would “immediately” hit the Islamic republic’s trading partners who also do business with the United States.”This Order is final and conclusive,” he wrote, without specifying who they will affect. Iran’s main trading partners are China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, according to economic database Trading Economics.Trump has been mulling his options on Iran, which has been roiled by more than two weeks of demonstrations that have defied a near-total internet blackout and lethal force.Sparked by economic grievances, the nationwide protests have grown into one of the biggest challenges yet to the theocratic system that has ruled Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution ousted the shah.Iranian authorities have blamed foreign interference for stoking the unrest and staged their own nationwide counter-rallies.Rights groups warned that the severed communications were aimed at masking a rising death toll. The Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights (IHR) said it had confirmed 648 people killed during the protests, including nine minors, but warned the death toll was likely much higher — “according to some estimates more than 6,000”.The internet shutdown has made it “extremely difficult to independently verify these reports”, IHR said, adding that an estimated 10,000 people had been arrested. “The international community has a duty to protect civilian protesters against mass killing by the Islamic republic,” said IHR director Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam. The White House said Monday that Trump remained “unafraid” to deploy military force against Iran, but was pursuing diplomacy as a first resort.  – ‘Four-front war’ -Iran on Monday sought to regain control of the streets with mass nationwide rallies that supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei hailed as proof that the protest movement was defeated.In power since 1989 and now 86, Khamenei said the pro-government turnout was a “warning” to the United States. “These massive rallies, full of determination, have thwarted the plan of foreign enemies that were supposed to be carried out by domestic mercenaries,” he said, according to state TV, referring to pro-government demonstrations. In the capital Tehran, state TV showed people brandishing the national flag and prayers read for victims of what the government has termed “riots”. At Enghelab (Revolution) Square, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told the crowd that Iran was fighting a “four-front war” listing economic war, psychological war, “military war” with the United States and Israel, and “today a war against terrorists” — a reference to the protests. Flanked by the slogans “Death to Israel, Death to America” in Persian, he vowed the Iranian military would teach Trump “an unforgettable lesson” if attacked. But Trump said Sunday that Iran’s leadership had called him seeking “to negotiate”.Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told a conference of foreign ambassadors in Tehran that Iran was “not seeking war but is fully prepared for war”, while calling for “fair” negotiations.Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said a channel of communication was open between Araghchi and Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff despite the lack of diplomatic relations. Reza Pahlavi, the US-based son of Iran’s ousted shah who has been vocal in calling for protests, told CBS news the government was “trying to trick the world into thinking that (it) is ready to negotiate once again”. He said Trump was “a man that means what he says and says what he means” and who “knows what’s at stake”.”The red line that was drawn has been definitely surpassed by this regime.” – ‘Respect for their rights’ -State outlets were at pains to present a picture of calm returning in Tehran, broadcasting images of smooth-flowing traffic. Tehran Governor Mohammad-Sadegh Motamedian insisted in televised comments that “the number of protests is decreasing”. Iranian state media has said dozens of members of the security forces have been killed, with their funerals turning into large pro-government rallies. The government has declared three days of national mourning for those killed.The European Union has voiced support for the protesters and on Monday said it was “looking into” imposing additional sanctions on Iran over the repression of demonstrations. The European Parliament also announced it had banned all Iranian diplomats and representatives from the assembly’s premises. French President Emmanuel Macron issued a statement condemning “the state violence that indiscriminately targets Iranian women and men who courageously demand respect for their rights”. Tehran ally Russia, for its part, slammed what it called attempts by “foreign powers” to interfere in Iran, state media reported, in Moscow’s first reaction to the protests.

US President Donald Trump has options to intervene in protest-hit Iran that range from low to high risk, but choosing his course depends on him deciding his ultimate goal.It has been 10 days since Trump said the United States was “locked and loaded” and ready to “come to the rescue” if Iran’s clerical state kills demonstrators who have taken to the streets in major numbers.Since then, Trump has kept threatening a military option, even as hundreds of people have died, according to rights groups.Iran has been a sworn foe of the United States since the 1979 Islamic revolution toppled the pro-Western shah. The downfall of the Islamic republic in power since then would transform the Middle East.But Trump has previously lashed out against “regime change” as a goal, especially pointing to lessons from US involvement in Iraq, a smaller country.Trump on Monday exercised economic leverage, announcing 25 percent tariffs on Iran’s trading partners, and he has spoken of ways to forcibly restore internet access shut by Tehran.The two governments have also revealed that they have been in communication, coordinated by Trump’s friend and roving envoy Steve Witkoff.- Momentum on streets -In a message likely designed to galvanize Trump, Reza Pahlavi, the US-exiled son of the late shah, has publicly encouraged Trump not to be like Democratic predecessor Barack Obama, who hesitated at supporting 2009 protests for fear of co-opting a homegrown movement.Some experts say that Obama’s fears nearly a generation ago may no longer be as relevant, with demonstrations having spread well beyond educated, urban circles that always opposed the religious state.Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who wrote a book about the fall of the late shah, said that Trump could target forces including the elite Revolutionary Guards that have taken the lead in repressing the protests.Intervention could ease Iranians’ fears and “affect the fence-sitters in thinking about joining the protests or not,” Takeyh said.Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the Chatham House think tank, agreed that intervention by Trump could bring momentum on the streets.But she said: “It could equally play further into the hands of a regime that is paranoid and this would build further unity and propel them to crack down further.”- How much action needed? -Trump in June ordered strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in support of an Israeli campaign.While Trump had previously spoken of a diplomatic resolution, the attack was in line with his inclination, as seen again recently in Venezuela, for one-off military operations he quickly claims as successes.Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, noted 130 to 150 Iranian cities have seen protests.”Trying to hit security forces in all of these, or even major cities of Iran, is more than just a few airstrikes,” Nasr said.As Trump likely “doesn’t want to get his hands dirty, a performative strike may be more where he wants to go,” Nasr said.Behnam Ben Taleblu, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the risk from intervention was less that Iranians rally around the flag than that they become afraid to go out.”The challenge of the strikes is how to make sure they don’t lead to the disbursement of protesters rather than the amplification of protests, if the strikes go off the rails — if targeting is poor, if intelligence is poor,” he said.He said the impact would also be high if Trump finally decides not to strike.Inaction would “play into the regime’s narrative of painting America as not able to actually come through,” Ben Taleblu said.Pahlavi and a number of Republican hawks have voiced opposition to diplomacy, warning it would only give the Islamic republic a lifeline.  But Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of the Amwaj.media site that closely follows Iran, believed many Iranians would welcome a deal that eases sanctions and “lifts the shadow of war.””I think this would supersede any kind of short-term survival for the Islamic republic because the way things are structured, I think most Iranians at this point accept that the Islamic republic is not going to be there forever.”

A violent crackdown on a wave of protests in Iran has killed at least 648 people, a rights group said on Monday, as Iranian authorities sought to regain control of the streets with mass nationwide rallies. The government’s call for rallies in support of the Islamic republic drew thousands on Monday, a turnout supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei hailed as proof that the protests — which the authorities attribute to foreign interference — had been defeated. Rights groups have warned an internet blackout that monitor Netblocks says has lasted four days was aimed at masking a deadly crackdown on the protests.The Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights (IHR) said it had confirmed 648 people killed during the protests, including nine minors, and thousands more injuries, but warned the death toll was likely much higher — “according to some estimates more than 6,000”.IHR added that the internet shutdown made it “extremely difficult to independently verify these reports”, saying an estimated 10,000 people had been arrested. “The international community has a duty to protect civilian protesters against mass killing by the Islamic republic,” said IHR director Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene militarily if Tehran killed protesters, with Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt saying on Monday that military options including air strikes were still “on the table”, but “diplomacy is always the first option for the president”. More than two weeks of demonstrations initially sparked by economic grievances have turned into one of the biggest challenges yet to the theocratic system that has ruled Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution ousted the shah.Khamenei, in power since 1989 and now 86, said in a statement that Monday’s pro-government rallies were a “warning” to the United States. “These massive rallies, full of determination, have thwarted the plan of foreign enemies that were supposed to be carried out by domestic mercenaries,” he said, according to state TV. – ‘Four-front war’ -In the capital Tehran, state TV showed people brandishing the national flag and prayers read for victims of what the government has termed “riots”. At Enghelab (Revolution) Square, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told the crowd that Iran was fighting a “four-front war”, listing economic war, psychological war, “military war” with the United States and Israel, and “today a war against terrorists” — a reference to the protests. Flanked by the slogans “Death to Israel, Death to America” in Persian, he vowed the Iranian military would teach Trump “an unforgettable lesson” if Iran were attacked. But Trump said Sunday that Iran’s leadership had called him seeking “to negotiate”, and Leavitt noted public messages from Iranian authorities were “quite different from the messages the administration is receiving privately”.Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told a conference of foreign ambassadors in Tehran that Iran was “not seeking war but is fully prepared for war”, while calling for “fair” negotiations.Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said a channel of communication was open between Araghchi and Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff despite the lack of diplomatic relations. Reza Pahlavi, the US-based son of Iran’s ousted shah who has been vocal in calling for protests, told CBS news the government was “trying to trick the world into thinking that (it) is ready to negotiate once again”. He said Trump was “a man that means what he says and says what he means” and who “knows what’s at stake”.”The red line that was drawn has been definitely surpassed by this regime.” – ‘Respect for their rights’ -State outlets were at pains to present a picture of calm returning in Tehran, broadcasting images of smooth-flowing traffic. Tehran Governor Mohammad-Sadegh Motamedian insisted in televised comments that “the number of protests is decreasing”. Iranian state media has said dozens of members of the security forces have been killed, with their funerals turning into large pro-government rallies. The government has declared three days of national mourning for those killed.The European Union has voiced support for the protesters and on Monday said it was “looking into” imposing additional sanctions on Iran over the repression of demonstrations. The European Parliament also announced it had banned all Iranian diplomats and representatives from the assembly’s premises. The Iranian foreign ministry said it had summoned diplomats in Tehran representing France, Germany, Italy and the UK, demanding they “withdraw official statements supporting the protesters”. French President Emmanuel Macron, however, issued a statement later Monday condemning “the state violence that indiscriminately targets Iranian women and men who courageously demand respect for their rights”. Non-essential French embassy staff left Iran on Sunday and Monday, two sources with knowledge of the matter told AFP.Tehran ally Russia, for its part, slammed what it called attempts by “foreign powers” to interfere in Iran, state media reported, in Moscow’s first reaction to the protests.

Israel will take part in the first semi-final of the Eurovision Song Contest on May 12 in Vienna, according to the draw on Monday, as five countries are staying away this year over Israel’s participation.The world’s biggest live televised music event heads into its 70th anniversary edition mired in its biggest-ever political boycott, with just 35 countries set to part — the fewest since entry was expanded in 2004.Israel will compete against 14 other countries, including past Eurovision winners Estonia, Finland, Greece, Portugal, Serbia and Sweden, for spots in the May 16 final, the draw at Vienna’s City Hall revealed.In the other semi-final held on May 14, the 15 countries vying for spots include past winners Azerbaijan, Denmark, Latvia, Norway, Ukraine and Switzerland, according to the draw.From each semi-final, 10 songs that get the most points from the jury combined with a public vote will qualify for the final.Host Austria and the biggest financial contributors France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom automatically qualify for the final.Public broadcasters in Iceland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovenia and Spain have all announced they are boycotting this year’s event.Matters came to a head over widespread concerns about the conduct of Israel’s two-year war in Gaza.There were suspicions too that the televoting system was being manipulated to boost Israel after it comfortably topped the public voting in Basel at Eurovision 2025, with extraordinary sequences of maximum points from other countries.Some broadcasters also raised concerns about EBU values and media freedom, with Israel preventing their journalists from accessing Gaza, while targeting and killing Palestinian journalists in the territory.EBU members have adopted measures aimed at improving the voting system, enhancing fraud detection and curbing government-backed promotional campaigns.Abolished in 2022, professional juries of music experts are returning in the semi-finals with expanded, more diverse panels that include young jurors aged 18 to 25.Austria is hosting the contest in Vienna after Austrian artist JJ won in Basel, Switzerland, last year.Austrian broadcaster ORF is presenting the 2026 edition.

US President Donald Trump is considering air strikes on Iran to stop a crackdown on protesters, the White House said Monday, adding that people were being “killed on the streets.” But a channel for diplomacy remains open, with Iran taking a “far different tone” in private discussions with Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, said Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.”One thing President Trump is very good at is always keeping all of his options on the table. And air strikes would be one of the many, many options that are on the table for the commander in chief,” Leavitt told reporters outside the West Wing.Leavitt added that “diplomacy is always the first option for the president.” “What you’re hearing publicly from the Iranian regime is quite different from the messages the administration is receiving privately, and I think the president has an interest in exploring those messages,” Leavitt added.Iran’s foreign ministry said earlier Monday that a channel of communication was open between its top diplomat Abbas Araghchi and Trump’s special envoy, despite a lack of diplomatic relations.Trump said on Sunday that the US military was considering “very strong options” against Iran, saying it “looks like” Tehran had crossed his previously stated red line of protesters being killed.He said Iran’s leaders had reached out for a meeting but “we may have to act before a meeting.”Rights groups have reported a growing death toll, with information continuing to trickle out of Iran despite a days-long internet shutdown.Leavitt appeared to confirm there had been deaths.”He certainly doesn’t want to see people being killed in the streets of Tehran, and unfortunately that’s something we’re seeing right now,” Leavitt said.