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Iran threatened Thursday to instantly strike US bases and aircraft carriers in response to any attack, after US President Donald Trump warned time was running out for Tehran and the EU blacklisted its Revolutionary Guards as a terror group.  As Brussels and Washington dialled up their own rhetoric and Iran issued stark threats, UN chief Antonio Guterres called for nuclear negotiations to “avoid a crisis that could have devastating consequences in the region”.  An Iranian military spokesman warned Tehran’s response to any US action would not be limited — as it was in June last year when American planes and missiles briefly joined Israel’s short air war against Iran — but would be a decisive response “delivered instantly”.  Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia told state television US aircraft carriers have “serious vulnerabilities” and that numerous American bases in the Gulf region are “within the range of our medium-range missiles”.”If such a miscalculation is made by the Americans, it will certainly not unfold the way Trump imagines — carrying out a quick operation and then, two hours later, tweeting that the operation is over,” he said.An official in the Gulf, where states host US military sites, told AFP that fears of a US strike on Iran are “very clear”. “It would bring the region into chaos, it would hurt the economy not just in the region but in the US and cause oil and gas prices to skyrocket,” the official added. – ‘Protests crushed in blood’ -Qatar’s leader Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian held a call to discuss “efforts being made to de-escalate tensions and establish stability,” the Qatar News Agency (QNA) reported.The European Union, meanwhile, piled on the pressure by designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a “terrorist organisation” over a deadly crackdown on recent mass protests.”‘Terrorist’ is indeed how you call a regime that crushes its own people’s protests in blood,” said EU chief Ursula von der Leyen, welcoming the “overdue” decision. Though largely symbolic, the EU decision has already drawn a warning from Tehran.Iran’s military slammed “the illogical, irresponsible and spite-driven action of the European Union”, alleging the bloc was acting out of “obedience” to Tehran’s arch-foes the United States and Israel. Iranian officials have blamed the recent protest wave on the two countries, claiming their agents spurred “riots” and a “terrorist operation” that hijacked peaceful rallies sparked over economic grievances. Rights groups have said thousands of people were killed during the protests by security forces, including the IRGC — the ideological arm of Tehran’s military. In Tehran on Thursday, citizens expressed grim resignation.”I think the war is inevitable and a change must happen. It can be for worse, or better. I am not sure,” said a 29-year-old waitress, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals. “I am not in favour of war. I just want something to happen that would result in something better.”Another 29-year-old woman, an unemployed resident of an upscale neighbourhood in northern Tehran, told AFP: “I believe that life has highs and lows and we are now at the lowest point. “Neither the economic situation, nor our livelihood is good. It is the lowest for me.”Trump had threatened military action if protesters were killed in the anti-government demonstrations that erupted in late December and peaked on January 8 and 9. But his recent statements have turned to Iran’s nuclear programme, which the West believes is aimed at making an atomic bomb.On Wednesday, he said “time is running out” for Tehran to make a deal, warning a US naval strike group that arrived in Middle East waters on Monday was “ready, willing and able” to hit Iran. – Conflicting tolls -The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said it has confirmed 6,479people were killed in the protests, as internet restrictions imposed on January 8 continue to slow verification. But rights groups warn the toll is likely far higher, with estimates in the tens of thousands. Iranian authorities acknowledge that thousands were killed during the protests, giving a toll of more than 3,000 deaths, but say the majority were members of the security forces or bystanders killed by “rioters”. Billboards and banners have gone up in the capital Tehran to bolster the authorities’ messages. One massive poster appears to show an American aircraft carrier being destroyed.burs-sw-sjw/ceg/lb

Weeks after toppling Venezuela’s leader, US President Donald Trump is turning to a similar playbook on Iran, sending what he calls an “armada” near its shores and warning an unpopular government.Trump has been emboldened on multiple fronts by the tactical success in Venezuela, but Iran presents far more complexities.- Nature of government -After US commandos snatched Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, Trump has leaned on his successor, vice president Delcy Rodriguez, threatening new attacks if she does not comply with his wishes, starting with access to the country’s oil.As with Maduro, a core principle of Tehran’s clerical leadership is resistance to the United States — but there are fewer signs of cracks in the state.The Islamic republic relies on the elite Revolutionary Guards, who in recent weeks have ruthlessly put down mass protests, killing thousands.The United States seized Maduro and his wife to face drug trafficking charges in New York — which they deny — after intermediaries for years quietly suggested a comfortable exile.Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, 86, has not left the country since 1989. A Shiite cleric, he lives frugally and was brought up in a religious tradition that reveres martyrdom.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, testifying Wednesday to a Senate committee, said the Islamic republic was “weaker than it has ever been” since the 1979 revolution overthrew the pro-Western shah.But he said there was no “simple answer” on what, or who, would follow Khamenei if he falls.”I would imagine it would be even far more complex” than Venezuela, he said.- Military strength -Trump said on social media that the US fleet near Iran was larger than the one sent to Venezuela.”Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary,” Trump wrote.Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Iran “is inordinately more complex than Venezuela,” with more diffuse centers of power.”I think this is the concern — that undertaking something like a ‘decapitation strike’ ends up in fact provoking all kinds of… very difficult to anticipate second- and third- and fourth-order effects and ends up really unleashing a mess inside of Iran,” she said.US forces rapidly went in and out of Caracas, which lies near the Caribbean coast and is in the same hemisphere as the United States.Tehran is much farther inland. The Islamic republic has weathered previous blistering attacks — by Iraq in the 1980s and Israel last June — and a 1980 US helicopter mission to free hostages ended disastrously.Iran’s leaders, however, have been weakened by the protests, the largest seen since the revolution.A number of protesters and exiled leaders have urged Trump to strike to help bring down the Islamic republic, although there are also plenty of skeptics who say either that it is too late or that Trump risks rallying the government’s supporters to its side.- What goal? -Trump has brashly vowed to intervene at will in Latin America and Rubio, in defending the Venezuela operation, earlier said: “This is not the Middle East.”Trump has long denounced previous US policymakers as ill-informed warmongers for the 2003 assault that overthrew Saddam Hussein in Iraq, a smaller country than Iran.Rather than vowing to topple the Islamic republic, Trump has urged it to end the standoff by accepting tough constraints on its nuclear program as well as missiles.Iran has fought hard against such concessions but observers say its leaders may prefer to turn the conversation to its weapons rather than face an existential threat.Kirsten Fontenrose, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, wrote that for Iran, the Maduro operation is “strategically relevant less as a template than as a signal.”Iranian policymakers have believed the United States would stop short of targeting leaders for fear of escalation but “the Maduro episode complicates that assumption,” she wrote.While Trump has brushed aside Latin American critics of his Venezuela operation, he enjoys close ties with Gulf Arab monarchies that have warned against intervention.The oil-rich US allies have little love for Iran but fear a spiraling regional conflict that would jeopardize their hard-earned image as stable havens for business.

Around 1,500 Israeli Jews prayed at a contested tomb in the occupied West Bank city of Nablus on Thursday morning, and a settler leader hailed an “important step” towards establishing Israeli sovereignty over the site.Jews believe Joseph’s Tomb in the north of the Palestinian territory is the burial site of the Biblical patriarch Joseph. Muslims consider it the burial place of a local religious figure.The entry of Jewish pilgrims often sparks clashes with Palestinians, who claim the visits are a provocation.Thursday’s prayer was exceptional as worshippers performed the Jewish morning service known as the Shacharit, which is celebrated after sunrise.For a quarter of a century, Israeli authorities have only allowed Jews to come and pray at the site at night. “This is a significant and important step toward… ensuring the full return of the people of Israel and the State of Israel to this holy place,” said Yossi Dagan, the head of the Shomron regional council which administers Israeli settlements in the northern West Bank.”For the first time in 25 years, Jews prayed in broad daylight at Joseph’s Tomb,” the council said in a statement.The tomb lies within the built up area of Nablus in the West Bank’s Area A, which under the Oslo Accords signed in the 1990s falls under the administration of the Palestinian Authority.- Dawn prayer -Since the Israeli military vacated the site in 2000, Jewish pilgrims can only visit in groups escorted by troops.AFP footage from the site on Thursday morning showed crowds of Jewish pilgrims praying, some wearing small leather boxes called tefillin, containing religious verses, on their heads.The Israeli army has long supervised the entry of ultra-Orthodox Jews for a nighttime prayer on the first day of each month of the Hebrew calendar.But Israeli media reported that, in December, Defence Minister Israel Katz had issued directives to the military to allow more visits to the tomb and not only at night.Previously, buses of visitors escorted by the army had to leave the site by 4:00 am at the latest.An AFP journalist at the scene said around 25 full buses arrived during the night carrying ultra-nationalists from Israeli settlements in the West Bank, as well as ultra-Orthodox Jews from settlements and from inside Israel.The buses departed at 7:00 am, escorted by military vehicles, the journalist said.Israel has occupied the West Bank since 1967 and Israeli settlements there are considered illegal under international law.An Israeli military spokesperson told AFP that “all was done according to the orders of the political echelon, not an army initiative.””The political echelon decided to extend the opening hours and (the military) is subordinate to their instructions.”

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which EU ministers agreed on Thursday to designate as a terrorist organisation, is the ideological army of the Islamic republic tasked with preserving the future of the revolution but which activists say played a frontline role in suppressing protests.Celebrated as a pillar of the theocratic system by the Iranian authorities, it is accused by the West of militant activity abroad and serial rights violations at home.Rights groups have accused the Guards of taking a lead role in the deadly crackdown on protests against Iran’s clerical leadership under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that has left thousands dead according to verified tolls.Matching similar classifications enacted by the United States, Canada and Australia, the EU’s move comes after years of pressure on the bloc by campaigners.”The intolerable repression of the peaceful uprising of the Iranian people cannot go unanswered,” said French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot as he announced late on Wednesday that Paris would back the terror designation, in a hardening of French policy.Amnesty International said this week its evidence showed that, alongside regular police and plain clothes agents, the IRGC and its volunteer paramilitary force known as the Basij, were “involved in the deadly crackdown”.Known in Iran as the “Pasdaran” (“The Guards”) or simply as “Sepah” (“The Corps”), the IRGC is a vast and complex organisation whose branches reach into many aspects of Iranian politics and society as well as the military.Its international unit, the Quds Force, whose then-chief Qasem Soleimani was killed by the United States in 2020, has been accused by the West of carrying out attacks in the Middle East, while analysts say it is a key economic player, benefitting from illicit transactions that circumvent sanctions.- ‘Control the economy’ -The Guards’ mission is “to propagate the ideas of the Islamic revolution”, said Clement Therme, a researcher at the International Institute of Iranian Studies. A Western diplomat, who requested anonymity to speak, said its membership was thought to be around 200,000.”It’s an armed force that functions like an elite military with terrestrial, maritime and aerospace capabilities, while it is better trained, better equipped and better paid than the regular military,” the diplomat said.The IRGC also serves as Tehran’s link to its regional allies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and pro-Iran militias in Iraq.”It’s an empire within an empire,” said David Khalfa, a researcher at the France-based Jean-Jaures Foundation.The Guards control or own companies across the Iranian economy, including major strategic sectors.Their annual military budget is estimated at around $6-9 billion, or 40 percent of Iran’s official military budget, according to data collated by Khalfa.”They effectively control the Iranian economy,” he added.For enforcement on the ground, the Guards rely on the Basij, a force hundreds of thousands strong which is recruited mainly from young Iranians and acts as an ideological organisation embedded in all institutions and levels of society.- Leader ‘dearer than our lives’ -A research paper published this month by Saeid Golkar and Kasra Aarabi of the US-based think tank United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) said a shadowy IRGC unit known as the Tharallah Headquarters, responsible for security in Tehran, was the “most critical cog in the IRGC’s security and suppressive apparatus”.”It coordinates intelligence, policing, Basij militia, IRGC units and psychological operations, ensuring that repression is not improvised but calibrated,” said Golkar and Aarabi, adding that it “functions as the regime’s operational brain during moments of unrest”.The Guards are led by General Mohammad Pakpour, who was appointed by Khamenei after his predecessor Hossein Salami was one of several key military figures killed in an Israeli strike during the 12-day war in June 2025.These losses revealed Israel’s deep intelligence penetration of the Islamic republic, including within the IRGC.On January 22, when the Islamic republic marks an annual day celebrating the Guards, Pakpour warned Israel and the United States “to avoid any miscalculations, by learning from historical experiences and what they learned in the 12-day imposed war, so that they do not face a more painful and regrettable fate”.In a show of bravado, given the fate of his predecessor, Pakpour that day also attended a public gathering with other generals from the IRGC and the regular army to show the unity within the Iranian armed forces.”The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and dear Iran have their finger on the trigger, more prepared than ever, ready to carry out the orders and measures of the supreme commander-in-chief — a leader dearer than their own lives,” he said, referring to Khamenei.

Iran reacted with fury on Thursday after the EU blacklisted the country’s Revolutionary Guards as a terror group, as Tehran faced off with Washington after US President Donald Trump warned time was running out for a nuclear deal. The European Union piled on mounting pressure on Iran on Thursday by designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a “terrorist organisation” over a deadly crackdown on recent mass protests”‘Terrorist’ is indeed how you call a regime that crushes its own people’s protests in blood,” said EU chief Ursula von der Leyen, welcoming the “overdue” decision. Though largely symbolic, the EU decision has already drawn a warning from Tehran that it would have “destructive consequences”. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called it a “another major strategic mistake” after key European powers last year triggered the return of UN sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme. Iran’s military slammed “the illogical, irresponsible and spite-driven action of the European Union”, alleging the bloc was acting out of “obedience” to Tehran’s arch-foes the United States and Israel. Iranian officials have blamed the recent protest wave on the two countries, claiming their agents spurred “riots” and a “terrorist operation” that hijacked peaceful rallies sparked over economic grievances. Rights groups have said thousands of people were killed during the protests by security forces, including the IRGC — the ideological arm of Tehran’s military. Trump had threatened military action if protesters were killed in the anti-government demonstrations that erupted in late December and peaked on January 8 and 9. But his recent statements have turned to Iran’s nuclear programme, which the West believes is aimed at making an atomic bomb.- Diplomatic push -On Wednesday he said “time is running out” for Tehran to make a deal, warning a US naval strike group that arrived in Middle East waters on Monday was “ready, willing and able” to hit Iran. The United States had hit Iranian nuclear targets when it briefly joined Israel’s war against Iran in June. Iranian officials have also ratcheted up warnings that Tehran would respond forcefully to any US military action, while not ruling out diplomatic solutions.Iran’s army chief Amir Hatami on Thursday vowed a “crushing response” to any attack, according to state television, which reported 1,000 “strategic drones” had joined the combat regiments. Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said the country “must be prepared for a state of war”, according to the official IRNA news agency. “Our strategy is that we will never start a war, but if it is imposed, we will defend ourselves,” he said, adding that Iran was “ready” for negotiations with the United States but wanted unspecified guarantees.The face-off has sent diplomatic shock waves across the region, with calls for negotiations to defuse tensions drawing in key regional actors. An official in the Gulf — where states host US military sites — told AFP that fears of a US strike on Iran are “very clear”. “It would bring the region into chaos, it would hurt the economy not just in the region but in the US and cause oil and gas prices to skyrocket,” the official added. Turkey said it would offer to mediate between Washington and Tehran during an upcoming visit by Araghchi, after Ankara’s top diplomat urged Washington to start nuclear talks with Tehran. Iran ally Russia on Thursday also said “the potential for negotiations is not exhausted”.”Any use of force can only create chaos in the region and lead to very dangerous consequences,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists. – Region doesn’t need ‘new war’ -Despite the EU’s IRGC designation and addition of another 15 Iranian officials and six entities to its asset freeze and visa ban blacklist, the bloc’s top diplomat warned the United States against starting a new Middle East conflict. “When it comes to attacks, then I think the region does not need a new war,” foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said. However, she hit out at Iran’s clerical leadership, saying on X that “any regime that kills thousands of its own people is working toward its own demise”. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said it has confirmed 6,373 people were killed in the protests, as internet restrictions imposed on January 8 continue to slow verification. But rights groups warn the toll is likely far higher, with estimates in the tens of thousands. Iranian authorities acknowledge that thousands were killed during the protests, giving a toll of more than 3,000 deaths, but say the majority were members of the security forces or bystanders killed by “rioters”. Billboards and banners have gone up in the capital Tehran to bolster the authorities’ messages. One massive poster appears to show an American aircraft carrier being destroyed.burs-sw/sjw/dc

Faced with political deadlock, open American meddling and the threat of war across its borders, is Iraq being dragged back to darker times after achieving hard-won stability?After decades of conflict and chaos, Iraq has recently regained a sense of normalcy, yet its politics is haunted by the struggle to balance relations with its two main allies, Iran and the United States.Washington makes no secret of its will to interfere in Iraqi domestic decision-making. While Iraqis discussed choosing their next premier, US representatives lobbied.Then President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum: the US would end its support for Iraq if Nouri al-Maliki, a powerful politician close to Iran, returned as prime minister.In the view of Iraqi analyst Ihsan al-Shamari, “Trump’s administration does not distinguish between Iran and Iraq, instead it treats them as a single, inseparable issue.”- What happened? -In November last year, Iraq held its general election.Last week, after intense talks among political leaders, the Coordination Framework, an alliance of Shiite groups with varying ties to Iran, endorsed Maliki as Iraq’s next prime minister.Maliki was Iraq’s only two-term prime minister, serving between 2006 and 2014).He first enjoyed the support of the then US occupation, but later fell out with Washington over his growing ties with Iran and allegations that he pushed a sectarian agenda. Coming from Iraq’s largest Shiite parliamentary bloc, this nomination would normally secure the candidate the post.But Trump’s meddling has muddied the waters.Talks are still underway within the Coordination Framework to find a way out, a source close to the Shiite alliance told AFP, adding that it is a “complicated situation.” Iraqi leaders are divided: some want Maliki to retreat to protect Iraq from Trump’s threats.Others insist on standing their ground and rejecting American interference. An Iraqi official close to Maliki said he is not seeking confrontation. Instead, his team is working to reach an understanding with the US.”The situation is difficult, but not impossible,” he said. “It will take time.”- What’s at stake? -The US wields leverage over Iraq as its oil export revenues are largely held at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York, in an arrangement reached after the 2003 US invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. Many US companies invest in Iraq, and the government of incumbent PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who enjoys a good relationship with Washington, has been hoping for more investment, especially in the oil sector, which provides about 90 percent of Iraq’s revenue.The source, close to the framework, said there are serious concerns that Trump could impose sanctions on Iraq if Maliki returns to office.But Iraq is struggling with weak economic growth and cannot risk punitive measures by the US, which has already taken action against several Iraqi entities, accusing them of helping Tehran evade sanctions.Shamari warned that if Iraq continues its current approach towards Iran, it will risk “isolation through sanctions or Trump’s maximum pressure campaign, which would extend to the economy and financial systems.”- War next door? -In Iraq, keeping Iran at bay is not easy. Since the US-led invasion, Iran has seen its Shiite allies installed in Baghdad’s halls of power.Today, it not only backs influential politicians but also supports armed groups. US-sanctioned and Iran-aligned armed groups have long vowed to intervene to defend the Islamic Republic, although they did not fire a bullet during the last Iran-Israel war.Today, with Trump threatening a possible strike on Iran, two of these groups say they are ready for war, even opening recruitment offices for those willing to die for the cause.Shamari warned that a US war on Iran might turn Iraq into “a battleground, a base for retaliation, or a tool of military pressure.”Washington’s threats “to topple the regime, target the Iranian Supreme Leader, or of a military strike … will significantly affect Iraq at all levels,” he said.If the Iranian regime changes, “Iran-aligned forces in Iraq will be forced into a political and military struggle for survival.”It might lead to a restructuring of Iraq’s political system.

Iran on Thursday vowed a “crushing response” to any attack after US President Donald Trump warned time was running out for a nuclear deal, and as the European Union looked to declare the Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organisation. Foes Washington and Tehran have exchanged sharp warnings since a protest wave in Iran led Trump to threaten military action over a violent crackdown, while the Islamic republic blamed the United States for fuelling what it deemed “riots”.The face-off has sent diplomatic shock waves across the region, with calls for negotiations to defuse tensions drawing in key regional actors. The EU is expected on Thursday to agree to put Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) on the bloc’s “terrorist list” over the crackdown, which rights groups say saw thousands killed by security forces, including the IRGC — the ideological arm of Tehran’s military.”If you act as a terrorist, you should also be treated as terrorists,” top diplomat Kaja Kallas told journalists ahead of a ministers’ meeting in Brussels, adding that the step puts the Guards on the same level as jihadist groups such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group. The symbolic move will send a strong message of condemnation to Iran, though it is expected to have little practical impact, as the organisation and senior commanders are already under EU sanctions. The bloc on Thursday added another 15 Iranian officials and six entities to its asset freeze and visa ban blacklist. However, Iran has warned of “destructive consequences” if the designation is greenlit, state media reported Tuesday. – ‘Potential for negotiations’ -Iranian officials have also ratcheted up warnings that Tehran would respond forcefully to any US military action, while not ruling out diplomatic solutions.Iran’s army chief Amir Hatami on Thursday vowed a “crushing response” to any attack, according to state television, which reported 1,000 “strategic drones” had joined the combat regiments. A US naval strike group arrived in Middle East waters on Monday, with Trump warning it was “ready, willing and able” to hit Iran “if necessary”.He said Wednesday that “time is running out” for Iran to negotiate a deal over its nuclear programme, which the West believes is aimed at making an atomic bomb.The United States had hit Iranian nuclear targets when it briefly joined Israel’s war against Iran in June. Iran’s neighbours, including Gulf states that host US military sites, have called for calm.A Gulf official told AFP that fears of a US strike on Iran are “very clear”. “It would bring the region into chaos, it would hurt the economy not just in the region but in the US and cause oil and gas prices to skyrocket,” the official added. Turkey on Thursday said it would offer to mediate between Washington and Tehran during an upcoming visit by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, after Ankara’s top diplomat urged Washington to start nuclear talks with Tehran.”It’s wrong to attack Iran. It’s wrong to start the war again. Iran is ready to negotiate on the nuclear file again,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Qatar-based Al-Jazeera television in English.NATO member Turkey is also weighing contingency plans along its 530-kilometre (330-mile) border with Iran should the dispute escalate, a senior official told AFP.Iran ally Russia on Thursday also said “the potential for negotiations is not exhausted”.”Any use of force can only create chaos in the region and lead to very dangerous consequences,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty in a call with his French counterpart Jean-Noel Barrot stressed the need for “the resumption of dialogue between the United States and Iran regarding the Iranian nuclear file”, Cairo said.- Mounting toll -Trump’s recent statements have focused more on Iran’s nuclear programme than the fate of protesters in the anti-government demonstrations that erupted in late December and peaked on January 8 and 9.In an updated toll, the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said it had confirmed that 6,373 people had been killed and more than 40,000 arrested, as internet restrictions persisted after a shutdown imposed on January 8. Iranian authorities acknowledge that thousands were killed during the protests, giving a toll of more than 3,000 deaths, but say the majority were members of the security forces or bystanders killed by “rioters”. In the capital Tehran, a large banner displayed an image from a pro-government protest held on January 12 against what officials called “foreign-instigated riots”.burs-sw/amj