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Yemen’s UAE-backed separatists announced a two-year transition to independence Friday despite reporting 20 deaths in airstrikes from a Saudi-led coalition trying to roll back their weeks-long offensive across the country’s south.A separatist military official and medical sources reported 20 fighters dead in air raids on two military bases as the coalition also targeted an airport and other sites.The bombardment and surprise independence bid follow weeks of tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over the separatist Southern Transitional Council’s (STC) land-grab.Yemen, which was divided into North and South from 1967 to 1990, could again be split in two years if the STC’s independence plan comes to fruition. It would call the new country “South Arabia”.STC president Aidaros Alzubidi said the transitional phase would include dialogue with Yemen’s north — controlled by Iran-backed Houthi rebels — and a referendum on independence.But he warned the group would declare independence “immediately” if there was no dialogue or if southern Yemen was attacked again.”The Council calls on the international community to sponsor dialogue between the concerned parties in the South and the North,” Alzubidi said in a televised address.”This constitutional declaration shall be considered immediately and directly effective before that date (January 2, 2028) if the call is not heeded or if the people of the South, their land, or their forces are subjected to any military attacks,” he added.STC forces took much of resource-rich Hadramawt, bordering Saudi Arabia, and neighbouring Mahra province on the Omani frontier, in a largely unopposed advance last month.The Saudis and Emiratis have for years supported rival factions in Yemen’s fractured government territories. But the STC’s offensive angered Riyadh and left the oil-rich Gulf powers at loggerheads.- ‘Existential’ war -Following repeated warnings and airstrikes on an alleged UAE weapons shipment this week, the Saudi-led coalition launched a wave of attacks on Friday.Mohammed Abdulmalik, head of the STC in Wadi Hadramaut and Hadramaut Desert, said seven air strikes hit the Al-Khasha military camp.Further strikes targeted other sites in the region and the airport and military base in Seiyun, STC military sources and eyewitnesses told AFP.Reyad Khames, a resident of a village near Al-Khasha, said: “Saudi planes are chasing STC fighters. We don’t know what type of aircraft they are — we just see flashes and explosions hitting checkpoints, clearing the way for the (Saudi-backed) forces to advance.”Friday’s deaths are the first from coalition fire since the STC’s campaign began. The separatists’ military spokesman said it was in an “existential” war with Saudi-supported forces, characterising it as a fight against radical Islamism — a longtime preoccupation of the UAE.The air raids came shortly after pro-Saudi forces launched a campaign to “peacefully” take control of military sites in Hadramawt.”This operation is not a declaration of war, nor an attempt to escalate tensions,” Hadramawt governor Salem Al-Khanbashi, also leader of the province’s Saudi-backed forces, was quoted as saying by the Saba Net news agency.Saudi sources confirmed the strikes were carried out by the Saudi-led coalition, which nominally includes the UAE and was formed in 2015 in a vain attempt to dislodge the Houthi rebels in Yemen’s north.A source close to the Saudi military warned the strikes “will not stop until the Southern Transitional Council withdraws from the two governorates”.- Rival factions -The wealthy Gulf states formed the backbone of the military coalition aimed at ousting the Houthis, who forced the government from the capital Sanaa in 2014 and seized areas including most of Yemen’s population.But after a brutal, decade-long civil war, the Houthis remain in place and the Saudis and Emiratis are backing different factions in the government-held territories.Yemen’s Aden-based government comprises a fractious coalition of groups including the STC, united by their opposition to the Houthis.The UAE, which withdrew most of its troops from Yemen in 2019, pledged to pull out the remainder after Tuesday’s coalition airstrikes on an alleged weapons shipment at Mukalla port, despite denying it contained arms.On Friday, a UAE government official confirmed all troops had left, adding that Abu Dhabi “remains committed to dialogue, de-escalation, and internationally supported processes as the only sustainable path to peace”.

President Donald Trump said on Friday that the United States was “locked and loaded” to respond if Iran killed protesters, prompting Tehran to warn that intervention would destabilise the region.Protesters and security forces clashed in several Iranian cities on Thursday, with six people reported killed, the first deaths since the unrest escalated.Shopkeepers in the capital Tehran went on strike on Sunday over high prices and economic stagnation, actions that have since spread into a protest movement with political demands that has swept into other parts of the country.Trump said on his Truth Social platform that if Iran “violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue”.”We are locked and loaded and ready to go,” he added.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called Trump’s remarks “reckless and dangerous”, and warned that the armed forces were “on standby” in the event of any intervention.The head of Iran’s top security body, Ali Larijani, warned Trump that “US interference in this internal matter would mean destabilizing the entire region and destroying America’s interests”.The American people “should be mindful of their soldiers’ safety”, Larijani added on X.Ali Shamkhani, an adviser to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said any US intervention would “be exposed to a response”, calling Iran’s security a “red line”.Iranian leaders including Larijani and President Masoud Pezeshkian have in recent days said that peaceful protests over Iran’s dire economy were legitimate and understandable.Pezeshkian said on Thursday that from a religious perspective, he and his government would be damned to hell if they failed to address the people’s economic hardship.At the same time, officials have warned of a firm response to any instability.An Iranian police spokesman said on Friday that the authorities acknowledged that the protests “express the will of the people to improve their living conditions”.”The police clearly distinguish between the legitimate demands of the people and destructive actions… and will not permit any enemies to transform the unrest into chaos,” spokesman Said Montazeralmahdi added in a statement.The prosecutor of the district of Lorestan, where clashes took place on Thursday, was quoted on the judiciary’s Mizan website as saying “any participation in illegal gatherings and any action aimed at disturbing public order, destroying property, disobeying law enforcement, inciting illegal gatherings… will be treated with the greatest firmness”.The official, Ali Hasavand, accused “opportunistic and hostile individuals” of seeking to undermine “public security and peace by sowing chaos, disorder and committing murder”.UN human rights chief Volker Turk urged Iranian “authorities to uphold the rights to freedom of expression, association and peaceful assembly”.- Battered economy -Iran’s economy has been battered by years of crushing international sanctions over its nuclear programme, with raging inflation and a collapsing currency.The protest movement comes as Iran has found itself weakened by major blows dealt to its regional allies in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.Iran also fought a 12-day war with Israel in June that saw the United States briefly join with strikes on nuclear sites.The protests have affected at least 20 cities to varying degrees, largely in the country’s west, according to an AFP tally based on Iranian media reports.However, local media do not necessarily report on every incident, and state media downplayed coverage of protests, while the torrent of videos flooding social media are often impossible to verify.The demonstrations are smaller than the last major round of unrest in 2022, triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, who was arrested for allegedly violating Iran’s strict dress code for women.Her death sparked a nationwide wave of anger that left several hundred people dead, including dozens of members of the security forces.Iran was also gripped by nationwide protests that began in late 2019 over a rise in fuel prices, eventually leading to calls to topple the country’s clerical rulers.

Iran has been rocked this week by protests that started in Tehran and have spread to other cities, with at least six people killed in clashes with security forces.Official media has largely played down the protests but videos have flooded social media, many of which are difficult to authenticate, or have even been manipulated.Here is a recap of what we know and what analysts think it all means.- What’s going on? -The protests began on Sunday in Tehran, where some shopkeepers went on strike over high prices and economic stagnation.Iran’s economy has been battered by years of crushing international sanctions over its nuclear programme, with raging inflation and a collapsing currency.By Tuesday, student protests erupted at universities in the capital Tehran and the central cities of Isfahan and Yazd. Some merchants in the capital’s bazaar joined in.Demonstrations have now affected 20 areas, mostly towns in the west of the country, according to an AFP tally of official and local Iranian media reports.In the southern city of Fasa, dozens of people protested outside a government building, lobbing projectiles and seeking to tear down its gate, according to videos posted on Wednesday, whose location AFP verified.Slogans heard at protests now include “Death to the dictator” and “Woman, Life, Freedom”, the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) says, citing verified videos and reports. AFP was not immediately able to authenticate these soundbites.The same chants were used in mass demonstrations after the September 2022 death in custody of Mahsa Amini, an Iranian-Kurdish woman arrested for allegedly breaching the country’s dress code for women.But authorities stamped out the 2022-2023 protests, using mass arrests and executions as part of its levers of repression, rights activists say. The system in charge since the 1979 revolution stayed in place. – What’s the context? -“The protesters are very clear in their slogans — they are not looking for reform,” said US-Iranian human rights lawyer Gissou Nia, of the Atlantic Council.They come as “the Islamic republic is dealing with a range of pressures, not only internally but also externally”, she said.Regional arch-foe Israel and the United States in June pounded Iranian nuclear sites and killed top military brass during a 12-day war.On Monday, US President Donald Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida that if Tehran rebuilt its nuclear facilities, the United States would “knock them down.”Trump said on Friday the United States was “locked and loaded” to respond if Iran killed protesters.Iran has also been weakened following major blows dealt to its regional allies, including in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.Some Iranians hold long-standing resentment that Tehran has given too much financial or military support to its regional proxies, such as Lebanese movement Hezbollah, during economic hardship at home.Iran International, a television channel based outside Iran that is critical of the authorities, has reported that recent protest slogans included “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, my life for Iran.”- How have authorities reacted? -Protesters and security forces clashed in several Iranian cities on Thursday, with six reported killed, the first deaths since the unrest escalated.Schools, banks and public institutions were closed on Wednesday for a public holiday, with officials saying this was due to the cold weather and to save energy.But authorities have also recognised the grievances as legitimate, and announced a series of measures, including replacing the central bank governor.President Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist, said on Thursday that he and his government would “end up in hell”, in the religious sense, if they failed to address economic hardship.”The government knows that merchants are the lifeblood, the beating heart of Iran’s economy, and therefore it is obliged to take measures to address, at least partially, the big issues,” French-Iranian sociologist Azadeh Kian told AFP.But supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, has yet to speak publicly on the matter.- How big is it? -Opposition abroad have welcomed the new protests.Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s ousted shah, on X hailed 2026 as “the definitive moment for change”, while the National Council of Resistance in Iran said Iranians wanted to “free themselves from the scourge of religious tyranny”.But Kian said today’s protests were not as large-scale as previous demonstrations sparked by economic grievances, including those of 2019. They were sparked by a petrol hike, spreading to around 100 cities and towns, and left hundreds dead, according to rights groups.”I very much doubt the current rallies could bring down or overthrow the regime,” she said.Arash Azizi, a postdoctoral associate and lecturer at Yale University, said the demonstrations however remained “the most serious wave of protests since 2023″.”It is clear that with ever declining standards of living and growing discontent, (the government) will have to face periodic protests,” he said.

Air strikes killed seven separatist fighters in Yemen on Friday, an official with the group said, as a Saudi-led coalition hit back against a sweeping advance by the UAE-backed Southern Transition Council and Abu Dhabi called for calm.The deaths are the first from coalition fire since the secessionist STC seized swathes of Hadramawt and Mahra provinces last month. Other strikes hit the airport and military base in Hadramawt’s Seiyun city on Friday, an STC source and witnesses said.A military spokesman for the STC said it was in a “decisive and existential” war with Saudi-backed Yemeni forces, characterising it as a fight against radical Islamism — a longtime preoccupation of the UAE.Saudi Arabia and the UAE have for years supported rival factions in Yemen’s government-run territories, but the STC’s offensive has angered Riyadh and left the oil-rich Gulf powers at loggerheads.The UAE said after the strikes on Friday that it sought de-escalation and that its last forces had left Yemen.”The UAE concluded the presence of its counterterrorism forces,” a government official said, adding Abu Dhabi “remains committed to dialogue, de-escalation, and internationally supported processes as the only sustainable path to peace”.Mohammed Abdulmalik, head of the STC in Wadi Hadramaut and Hadramaut Desert, said seven air strikes earlier hit the Al-Khasha camp, killing seven and wounding more than 20. Further strikes targeted other sites in the same region, he added. At Seiyun, the major city seized at the start of the separatists’ campaign, air strikes rocked the airport and military base, an STC military source and separate eyewitnesses told AFP.The air raids came shortly after pro-Saudi forces launched a campaign to “peacefully” take control of military sites in Hadramawt.”This operation is not a declaration of war,” Hadramawt governor Salem Al-Khanbashi, also leader of the province’s Saudi-backed local forces, was quoted as saying by the Saba Net news agency.”This operation does not target any political or social group,” he said, adding that it “aims to peacefully and systematically hand over military sites”.Saudi sources confirmed the air strikes were carried out by the Saudi-led coalition, which also nominally includes the UAE and was formed in 2015 to fight the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen’s north.A source close to the Saudi military warned: “It will not stop until the Southern Transitional Council withdraws from the two governorates.”The STC seized much of resource-rich Hadramawt, bordering Saudi Arabia, and neighbouring Mahra on the Omani frontier last month. – Rival factions -Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are rival powerbrokers in Yemen’s government-run areas.The wealthy Gulf powers formed the backbone of the military coalition aimed at dislodging the Houthis, who forced the government from the capital Sanaa in 2014 and seized Yemen’s most populated areas.But after a brutal, decade-long civil war, the Houthis remain in place and the Saudis and Emiratis are backing different factions in the government-held territories.Amr Al Bidh, foreign affairs representative for the STC, accused Riyadh of having “knowingly misled the international community by announcing a ‘peaceful operation’ that they never had any intention to keep peaceful”.”This was evidenced by the fact that they launched 7 airstrikes minutes later,” he posted on X.Saudi Arabia has repeatedly urged the STC to withdraw from the recently conquered territories.The UAE had first announced its intention to withdraw its remaining troops in Yemen after the Saudi-led coalition bombed an alleged Emirati weapons shipment on Tuesday.- Flights grounded -The Yemeni government comprises a fractious coalition of groups including the STC, united by their opposition to the Houthis.The STC’s advance has raised the possibility that South Yemen, a separate state from 1967 to 1990, might declare independence, while dealing a hammer blow to slow-moving peace negotiations with the Houthis.Also on Friday, the Saudi ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed Al-Jabir, said the STC had blocked a Saudi delegation from landing at Aden airport, accusing the group of “intransigence”.On Thursday, Yemen’s STC-controlled transport ministry denounced a Saudi demand that all planes to and from the UAE make a stop in Saudi Arabia for security checks.According to the Flightradar24 tracking website, no planes have taken off or landed at Aden airport for more than 24 hours, although the ministry did not officially announce its closure.

For years, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia projected geopolitical and economic power across the Gulf and beyond, seemingly in tandem.But a growing rivalry and struggle for influence has come to a head — most recently in Yemen — following years of divergence over a tangle of competing interests that reach from regional waterways to the corridors of power in Washington, analysts say. The once-close relationship between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan was long seen as the backbone of the alliance between the two Gulf powers.But as their ambitions grew apart and Prince Mohammed accelerated sweeping economic reforms at home while reasserting Saudi dominance abroad, talk has swirled of a rift with the Emirati leader, previously considered his mentor.Now the pair find themselves on opposing sides over oil production and in Sudan, the Horn of Africa and now Yemen, where the two countries are part of an anti-Houthi military coalition but support rival factions within the internationally recognised government.Yemen and Gulf expert Baraa Shiban pointed to deep strategic and ideological differences, with Saudi Arabia alarmed by what it views as the UAE’s willingness in war-torn Yemen and Sudan to “break the country” by backing disruptive forces in a bid for influence, with Riyadh preferring instead to preserve existing authorities.He also said there was an “obsession” among the Emirati leadership about fighting the Muslim Brotherhood and political Islam, a stance the UAE has sought to push across the region but which is not shared to the same degree by Saudi Arabia.Saudi Arabia is also keen to hold on to what it considers its own regional preeminence.”Seeing one country with huge influence, like the United Arab Emirates, crafting bilateral deals… suddenly having footholds in multiple countries with those non-state actors, it’s something they would be very concerned about,” Shiban said.- Growing apart in Yemen -The countries’ opposition in Yemen burst into view recently when the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) — supported by the UAE and part of Yemen’s governing alliance — seized swathes of resource-rich Hadramawt and Mahra provinces from forces loyal to the government, backed by Saudi Arabia.The Saudi-led military coalition in Yemen, which it formed to fight the Houthi rebels and to which the UAE nominally belongs, on Tuesday bombed an alleged Emirati weapons shipment destined for the separatists.But the cracks in the coalition had started to show years earlier, with the UAE pulling out the bulk of its forces in July 2019.UAE and Saudi aims in Yemen are “significantly different” and there is “no way to reconcile the two approaches”, Shiban said.- Opposing sides in Sudan -In November, US President Donald Trump promised to end a grinding war in Sudan following a request by Prince Mohammed during a trip to Washington.Abu Dhabi has been widely accused of arming the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which have been fighting Sudan’s regular army since April 2023. The UAE has repeatedly denied the accusations.The Sudanese army, meanwhile, has received support from Saudi Arabia.Middle East and North Africa researcher Emadeddin Badi said it was difficult to view the STC’s advance in Yemen “as anything but retaliation by the UAE for (Prince Mohammed’s) visit to Trump”, which he said was implicitly understood as Saudi Arabia pushing for a tougher stance on the UAE.- Horn of Africa ‘trigger’ -The Horn of Africa has become another arena of competition thanks to its strategic position, abutting the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean.The UAE has fostered ties with Ethiopia and Somaliland, which seeks to break away from Somalia, and has operated a military base at the port of Berbera since 2017.Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has sought to bolster Mogadishu.Israel, which established ties with the UAE in 2020, last week recognised Somaliland in a move condemned by Saudi Arabia and 20 other mostly Muslim countries. The UAE did not join in the condemnation. Badi said the recognition would have been a “trigger that amplified the threat perception on the Saudi side”. Somaliland could later look to recognise Israel, “which is something that the UAE intends to leverage”, he added.- Economic rivals -Following a spat between the UAE and Saudi over OPEC output curbs in 2021, economic rivalry has sharpened as both seek to diversify away from oil. Riyadh has since moved aggressively to attract multinationals, requiring companies that do business with government agencies to base their regional headquarters there, prompting some to relocate from the UAE. The push under Saudi’s Vision 2030 national blueprint has extended to aviation, tourism and media, with Saudi Arabia launching a new airline, airport and leisure projects to rival Dubai’s established hubs. In recent weeks Riyadh has also quietly relaxed its laws to allow wealthy, non-Muslim foreign residents to purchase alcohol — seen as another bid to attract overseas workers who would otherwise be drawn to the UAE.