Bank of Japan watchers have pushed back their forecasts for the timing of policy adjustments after Governor Kazuo Ueda’s repeated signaling of the continued need for monetary stimulus, a Bloomberg survey showed.
(Bloomberg) — Bank of Japan watchers have pushed back their forecasts for the timing of policy adjustments after Governor Kazuo Ueda’s repeated signaling of the continued need for monetary stimulus, a Bloomberg survey showed.
Only 3 out of 47 polled economists expect a tightening move at a two-day policy meeting ending June 16, sharply down from 18 who flagged action this month in the previous survey in April. Instead of June, July is now seen as the most likely month for a change by just over a third of respondents.
In a wider sign of policy change coming later than previously thought, the number of those predicting a shift this year after the summer jumped to 22% from less than 10% in the previous survey in April.
The results indicate the impact of Ueda’s continued message that the cost of a premature tightening move is extremely high and would be more harmful than a delayed move.
Still, economists are reluctant to rule out the chance of an early adjustment to the BOJ’s yield curve control program. Far more of them also see a greater chance of the central bank achieving its inflation goal, a condition needed for policy change.
For the full results, click here.
More than half of respondents said it is likely that any change to YCC would come as a surprise. Analysts argue that an unexpected change when market conditions are benign would help the BOJ avoid a massive bond selloff in anticipation of the move.
The poll showed that views on Japan’s inflation are becoming more bullish as a measure of the deeper price trend continues to gain momentum, hitting its highest level since 1981. The likelihood of the central bank achieving its stable 2% target is rising, according to 55% of them, compared with 40% just two months ago.
More than half of the economists don’t agree with the BOJ’s view that inflation will weaken below 2% in the second half of the fiscal year ending in March.
Governor Ueda will be holding his second policy meeting next week after Japan’s stock prices hit a 33-year high, a development that some economists said shows Ueda has convinced markets that easing will stay in place.
A booming stockmarket and more stable market conditions may provide a good moment for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to go to the polls.
A third of the economists said it’s hard for the central bank to adjust policy while there is a likelihood of an early election, while 40% said it’s not.
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