Australia’s central bank will consider pausing its policy tightening cycle next month given interest-rate settings are already restrictive and the economic outlook remains uncertain, minutes of its March meeting showed.
(Bloomberg) — Australia’s central bank will consider pausing its policy tightening cycle next month given interest-rate settings are already restrictive and the economic outlook remains uncertain, minutes of its March meeting showed.
The Reserve Bank delivered its 10th consecutive rate hike two weeks ago to take the cash rate to 3.6% as board members judged inflation in Australia is “too high” and the labor market “very tight,” minutes of the March 7 meeting showed Tuesday.
Even so, the RBA board returned to the question of standing pat during its discussions.
“Members agreed to reconsider the case for a pause at the following meeting, recognizing that pausing would allow additional time to reassess the outlook for the economy,” the minutes showed. ”At what point it will be appropriate to pause will be determined by data and the board’s assessment of the outlook.”
While the minutes are dated given the banking sector stress that has roiled financial markets across the world, they show Australian policymakers were already focused on economic uncertainties ranging from the outlook for household consumption to credit growth.
“Members noted that monetary policy was in restrictive territory and that the economic outlook was uncertain,” the minutes showed. “The outlook for consumption remained a key source of uncertainty.” Board members also discussed the “significant financial pressures” that some households are experiencing.
Overnight indexed swaps have swung significantly since the banking crisis in the US and Europe and now imply the RBA will stand pat at its April 4 meeting and then begin cutting in August. Money markets now signal that the global monetary tightening cycle is all but done.
All eyes will be on a number of major central bank meetings over the coming days, led by the Federal Reserve with its decision likely to influence the RBA’s call next month.
Assistant Governor Chris Kent this week sought to alleviate concerns the banking crisis will become systemic, maintaining Australian lenders are “unquestionably strong” with solid balance sheets and capital positions.
Australia has lagged international peers in the scale of its rate increases, reflecting Governor Philip Lowe’s efforts to bring the economy in for a soft landing. The minutes showed the RBA’s tightening bias remained intact however, with a monthly inflation indicator and retail sales data – due next week – gaining extra prominence.
The RBA’s rapid-fire rate hikes have created a political problem for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese as he tries to persuade a heavily indebted electorate grappling with rising living costs that the pain of increased borrowing costs is preferable to entrenched inflation.
The government will release its budget in May, which is likely to have some targeted cost relief measures, although Treasurer Jim Chalmers has said it will keep a tight leash on fiscal spending to avoid further fueling consumer prices.
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