Clashes between rival factions in the Ethiopian region of Tigray have raised the spectre of a new war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, analysts and residents said Thursday.International powers and the United Nations have expressed concern and called for “urgent dialogue” to de-escalate the tensions. Ethiopia’s most northerly region, bordering Eritrea, saw a devastating war between 2020 and 2022 which claimed up to 600,000 lives, according to some estimates.Local forces battled the federal government, allied militias and Eritrean soldiers. A November 2022 peace accord has failed to restore stability.Disputes between rival factions have intensified alongside deteriorating relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia since the peace deal.The federal government appointed veteran Tigray politician Getachew Reda as head of an interim regional administration.But he has been challenged by a former ally, the leader of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, Debretsion Gebremichael.Forces loyal to Debrietson took control Tuesday of Adigrat, Tigray’s second-largest city.”The population fears a return to the bad old days of the war,” one local resident told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the tensions.- New conflict ‘close’ -Getachew suspended three generals in the Tigray Defence Forces, accusing the rival faction of trying to “take over the whole of Tigray” in an interview with Tigrai Mass Media Agency.Some observers fear that Eritrea, a historic rival, may use the tensions to launch military action. “We have been close to a new conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia for the past two years,” Kjetil Tronvoll, Oslo University professor specialising in the region, told AFP.”We just do not know what will be the triggering factor.”Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki’s dissatisfaction with the 2022 peace agreement, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ambitions for a Red Sea port and geopolitical interest from the Middle East have fuelled the deteriorating tensions, he argued.That has left the “two countries inching closer to a new war”, he added.”The situation in Tigray can be the triggering factor.”- Rising tension -Western embassies, including the United States, Britain, Japan and the European Union have issued a statement saying there must be “no return to violence”. “We strongly urge all parties to protect the (2022) Agreement by de-escalating and engaging in urgent dialogue,” they said in a post on the US embassy X account. The United Nations said it was “monitoring closely” events in Tigray. UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric also called for “urgent dialogue” to head off a return to conflict.France has called on its nationals in Tigray to “stock up on emergency supplies” and discouraged travel across the region because of the clashes, particularly in Adigrat and in the regional capital, Mekele.Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have seen extreme highs and lows since Afwerki led his country to independence in 1993.One two-year war between the countries over territorial disputes resulted in tens of thousands of deaths between 1998 and 2000.Abiy was lauded, including winning the Nobel Peace Prize, for reaching a peace agreement with Eritrea when he came to power in 2018.It briefly allowed borders to reopen to the isolated country, which Afwerki has ruled virtually unchallenged since 1993.However, relations have strained since the end of the Tigray war in 2022.Eritrea claimed in February that Ethiopia was waging an “intense campaign” against it.”A war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out at any moment,” said General Tsadkan Gebretensae, senior strategist for the Tigray forces in Getachew’s administration, in remarks published this week.Getachew’s administration asked the Ethiopian government on Wednesday to “provide necessary assistance”, though he told reporters that the assistance he had requested was not military.Federal authorities in Addis Ababa have not yet commented.
