(Reuters) – The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.
The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation for a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive interest rate hikes.
Now, as Fed policymakers note improvement on inflation and some cooling in the labor market, the risks are seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced.
All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that are held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
The following chart offers a look at how officials currently stack up on their outlooks for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in this graphic.
Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances – for an accounting of how our counts have changed please scroll to the bottom of this story.
Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Patrick Jerome Neel Michelle
Harker, Powell, Fed Kashkari, Bowman,
Philadelph Chair, Minneapol Governor,
ia Fed permanent is Fed permanent
President, voter: President voter: “My
2023 “Having come , 2023 baseline
voter: “A so far so voter: economic
decrease quickly, the “When outlook
in the FOMC is activity continues
policy moving continues to expect
rate is forward to run that we
not carefully, this hot, will need
something as the risks that to
that is of under- makes me increase
likely to and question the
happen in over-tighten if policy federal
the short ing are is as funds rate
term.” becoming tight as further.”
Nov. 8, more we assume Nov. 28,
2023 balanced.” it 2023
Dec 1, 2023 currently
is.” Nov.
7, 2023
Raphael John Lorie
Bostic, Williams, Logan,
Atlanta New York Fed Dallas
Fed President, Fed
President, permanent President
2024 voter: “We , 2023
voter: “I are at, or voter:
don’t near, the “We have
think peak level seen some
we’ve seen of the retraceme
the full target range nt in
effects of of the that
restrictiv federal 10-year
e policy.” funds rate.” yield and
Nov. 29, Nov 30, 2023 financial
2023 condition
s, and so
I’ll be
watching
to see
whether
that
continues
and what
that
means for
the
implicati
ons of
policy,”
Nov. 7,
2023
Philip Loretta
Jefferson, Mester,
Vice Chair: Cleveland
“We are in a Fed
sensitive President
period of , 2024
risk voter:
management, “Monetary
where we policy is
have to in a good
balance the place for
risk of not policymak
having ers to
tightened assess
enough, incoming
against the informati
risk of on on the
policy being economy
too and
restrictive. financial
” Oct. 9, condition
2023 s.” Nov.
29, 2023
Christopher Thomas
Waller, Barkin,
Governor, Richmond
permanent Fed
voter: “I am President
increasingly , 2024
confident voter:
that policy “If
is currently inflation
well is going
positioned to flare
to slow the back up,
economy and I think
get you want
inflation to have
back to 2%.” the
Nov. 28, option of
2023 doing
more on
rates.”
Nov. 29,
2023
Michael
Barr, Vice
Chair of
Supervision,
permanent
voter: The
Fed is “at
or near the
peak” of
interest
rates.” Nov.
17, 2023
Lisa Cook,
Governor,
permanent
voter: “I
see risks as
two-sided,
requiring us
to balance
the risk of
not
tightening
enough
against the
risk of
tightening
too much.”
Nov. 16,
2023
Austan
Goolsbee,
Chicago Fed
President,
2023 voter:
“It’s
working
through in
the way
we’ve
anticipated.
” Dec. 1,
2023
Mary Daly,
San
Francisco
Fed
President,
2024 voter:
“I’m
thinking
about
whether we
have enough
tightening
in the
system and
are
sufficiently
restrictive
to restore
price
stability.
Discussions
about
interest
rate cuts
are not
particularly
helpful at
the moment.”
Nov. 30,
2023
Susan
Collins,
Boston Fed
President,
2025 voter:
The Fed
should be
“patient and
resolute,
and I
wouldn’t
take
additional
firming off
the table.”
Nov. 17,
2023
Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, was in July.
Most policymakers as of September expected one more rate hike by the end of this year, but recently many have expressed more confidence that none will be needed. Neither Jeff Schmid, who has been the Kansas City Fed’s president since August and will be a voter on the FOMC in 2025, nor Adriana Kugler, a permanent voter who was confirmed to the Fed’s Board of Governors in September, have yet made any substantive policy remarks. The St. Louis Fed has begun a search to replace its former president, James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new chief will be a voter on the policy-setting committee in 2025. Interim St. Louis Fed chief Kathleen O’Neill Paese appears to lean hawkish.
Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.
FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centri Hawkis Hawk
st h
Dec ’23 2 9 4
0 1
Oct/Nov ’23 0 2 7 5 2
Sept ’23 0 4 3 6 3
June ’23 0 3 3 8 3
March ’23 0 2 3 10 2
Dec ’22 0 4 1 12 2
(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao)
