(Bloomberg) — Switzerland’s anti-immigrant People’s Party is set to consolidate its position as the nation’s strongest political force in an election on Sunday, the most recent example of right-wing gains across central Europe.
(Bloomberg) — Switzerland’s anti-immigrant People’s Party is set to consolidate its position as the nation’s strongest political force in an election on Sunday, the most recent example of right-wing gains across central Europe.
The SVP — as the party is known by its German acronym — is set to win more than 28% of the vote, according to the most recent poll, its third-strongest result on record. That would put it almost 10 percentage points ahead of the Social Democrats and match the trend across the region, which has seen the far-right AfD grow in Germany and Giorgia Meloni take power in Italy.
The shift could bolster the SVP’s agenda, which includes attempts to limit Switzerland’s population to 10 million people and to enshrine “everlasting” neutrality in the constitution. Yet it wouldn’t change who governs the country, thanks to a political system where the executive isn’t formed by a coalition or outright majority, but is a compact between the largest parties.
“The Swiss system has a massive status quo bias,” said Georg Lutz, professor for political science at Lausanne University. “The headline for election day will be ‘stability’.”
What are the key campaign issues?
Domestic concerns dominate the political debate, particularly rising health-insurance costs and immigration. That’s fertile territory for the SVP: it scored its biggest election victory in 2015 with a campaign to curb immigrant arrivals, despite the threat to economic growth.
The Credit Suisse debacle also remains a touchstone issue, with “mismanagement and bonuses” at the bank being the No. 1 grievance among Swiss voters.
Shortly after the government announced in March that UBS Group AG was taking over Credit Suisse, both the SVP and the Social Democrats symbolically refused to back state loans for the rescue plan, despite each holding two seats in the government that steered through the deal.
That leaves the pro-business Free Democrats of Karin Keller-Sutter, the finance minister in charge during the crisis, as the potential lightning rod for voters. They are faring poorly in polls and could see one of their two seats on Switzerland’s seven-member executive threatened if they are overtaken by the Center Alliance, a merger between two older parties including the Christian Democrats.
How is the government formed?
The top three parties usually get two seats each in the cabinet, with the fourth-biggest receiving one. But that division is complicated by differing party strengths in the two houses of parliament. The number of lawmakers each party gets is also determined by the distribution of votes across Switzerland’s 26 cantons.
This all means that the FDP could still keep two seats in the executive even if they slip to fourth place in the election. The final decision will be taken by the newly elected parliament in December.
“The seats in government will likely remain the same,” said Michael Hermann, head of Zurich-based political research institute Sotomo. “Because things move so little in Swiss politics, it’s highly dramatic to be voted out of office.”
When will results come in?
Most people vote by mail, so polling stations close at noon on Sunday. Results will be reported district by district over the afternoon, with large cantons like Zurich and Bern likely coming in last.
Final results for the lower house are expected late in the day. But with many cantons requiring absolute majorities for their upper-house seats, a number of them will only be determined in run-off elections in November. That usually doesn’t tip the scales in parliament.
Voter turnout is likely to remain below 50%.
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