By Nimesh Vora
MUMBAI (Reuters) – The Indian rupee is expected to rise marginally at open on Tuesday on the back of a pullback in crude oil prices and the safe-haven dollar.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at around 83.20-83.24 to the U.S. dollar compared with 83.2775 in the previous session.
Oil and dollar should “at the margin” provide relief for the rupee, but the Reserve Bank of India remains “the overwhelming factor” in the market, a forex trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.
The Indian central bank’s regular intervention is preventing the rupee from weakening past its 83.29 record low and is holding the currency in a narrow range, according to traders.
Brent crude retreated on Monday to below $90 a barrel, surrendering a small part of last week’s rally.
U.S. and oil producer Venezuela nearing a deal on sanctions relief and Washington stepping up efforts to prevent an escalation of the war between Israel and Hamas pushed oil down.
U.S. equities climbed on Monday, impacting demand for the safe-haven dollar and U.S. Treasuries.
The dollar index was down to near 106.30 and the 10-year U.S. 10-year yield rose to 4.72%.
“The risk-off tone that permeated markets a few days ago seems to be dissipating thanks to a lot of shuttle diplomacy by (U.S. Secretary of State) Antony Blinken and others in the region,” ING Bank said in a note.
Asian currencies were mostly rangebound Tuesday.
Investor attention this week is on U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who is due to speak on Thursday, during a busy week of speeches by regional bank heads.
U.S. retail sales data is due later on Tuesday and will provide cues on how consumers are responding to the rise in borrowing costs.
Meanwhile, rupee traders will watch the USD/INR overnight cash rate and forward premiums on concerns over dollar shortage.
KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.32; onshore one-month forward premium at 8.25 paisa
** Dollar index up at 106.3 ** Brent crude futures down 0.3% at $89.4 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield up at 4.73% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $45.8 mln worth of Indian shares on Oct. 13
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $87.4 mln worth of Indian bonds on Oct. 13
(Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)
