US employment gains will slow significantly and be more concentrated across few sectors in the decade through 2032 as population growth moderates, fresh government estimates show.
(Bloomberg) — US employment gains will slow significantly and be more concentrated across few sectors in the decade through 2032 as population growth moderates, fresh government estimates show.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics sees the economy adding almost 4.7 million jobs, or 0.3% annually. That’s well shy of the 1.2% annual increase in the decade that ended in 2022, projections from the Labor Department agency showed Wednesday. Estimated job growth would equal less than 40,000 jobs per month.
The population growth mix is expected to unfavorable to the labor market as well. Growth will be concentrated among individuals at least 75 years old because of the aging baby-boom generation.Â
Because older groups have lower labor force participation rates than prime-age workers, the overall participation rate is projected to decline as well. The labor force participation rate, currently at 62.8%, is projected to fall to 60.4% in 2032.
The share of the male adult population that is in the labor force, either working or looking for work, is expected to decline notably over the next decade. Participation for women age 16 to 24 is expected to be higher than that for men in the same group.
Total US employment is projected to reach 169.1 million in 2032 from 164.5 million last year but the growth is expected to be concentrated in a few industries.
The BLS anticipates that the health care and social assistance sector will add about 45% of all new jobs, due to an aging population. Professional and business services will add an additional 30%. Self-employment outside of agriculture is expected to rise 1.4% by 2032.
By contrast, retail payrolls are expected to shrink 3.4%, while the automation of production activities will lead to a 0.8% drop in manufacturing jobs.
Labor Department researchers expect cashiers, the fifth-largest occupation in the economy, to bear the brunt of the decline in retail employment. Almost 350,000 cashier jobs are expected to be eliminated, the government estimates.Â
The industry faces a number of shifts that include more online shopping and self-checkout systems. At the same time, occupations in transportation and warehousing are expected to benefit as people utilize store pickup options or rely on deliveries.
A similar decline is seen among secretarial jobs as improved technology such as computer software, enhanced with AI technology will automate routine back-office functions, such as documents preparation and data sharing.
Among the strongest occupational gainers will be data scientists, statisticians, actuaries, and operations research analysts who can interpret, and analyze data.Â
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