Voter turnout is likely to be a defining factor in Argentina’s wide-open presidential race, as declining participation rates tend to favor candidates with more ardent followers such as hard-liner Patricia Bullrich and outsider Javier Milei, according to top polling firm Isonomia.
(Bloomberg) — Voter turnout is likely to be a defining factor in Argentina’s wide-open presidential race, as declining participation rates tend to favor candidates with more ardent followers such as hard-liner Patricia Bullrich and outsider Javier Milei, according to top polling firm Isonomia.
Juan Germano, a director at the Buenos Aires-based pollster, said such a trend can be observed in different types of surveys his firm has carried out. Bullrich and Milei perform better in phone and online interviews that usually attract more motivated Argentines, while centrist Buenos Aires Mayor Horacio Rodriguez Larreta and Economy Minister Sergio Massa are favored by in-person interviews.
The gap is considerable and raises additional concerns about the accuracy of Argentine polls, which already have a spotty track record.
As an example, Germano cited different surveys for the Aug. 13 primary election that will determine the candidate for the main opposition coalition — which pollsters say stands good chances of winning the October election. While some online or telephone polls give Bullrich a double-digit lead, in-person surveys put her in a close tie with Larreta.
“Polls are not marginal; it’s a world of a difference” depending on the methodology, Germano said in a recent interview. “There is a type of voter who is a lot calmer, quieter, more removed, more apathetic, and we have to see if they vote or don’t vote.”
The bad news for Larreta is that, with many Argentines disillusioned with years of economic and currency crises that have destroyed incomes and hurt living standards, pollsters warn that this year’s turnout could be the lowest in Argentina’s history. Larreta, who has built his campaign on pragmatism and coalition-building, has the most to lose in that scenario, Germano said.
Read more: Argentine Economic Chaos Fuels Hard-Liner’s Presidential Bid
More In-Person Interviews
Like other top pollsters, Isonomia only shares numbers with paying clients. His polls show voter intention for Bullrich, who had grown steadily for weeks, plateauing since Massa entered the race in late June, flanked by the Peronist coalition led by Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. Germano said the economy minister’s perceived competitive edge could drive opposition voters away from the hard right and toward the center, if Larreta can seize the final sprint of the campaign.
“Can Larreta turn around and convince voters that it’s necessary to be more pragmatic, more open to beat Massa?” he said. “That’s what’s on the line.”
Isonomia doubled its field interviews this year, after 2019 polls were very far from actual results. In-person responses now make up 85% of their poll data, compared to 40% in 2019.
Germano expects voter participation to drop below 75% in the August primaries, despite mandatory elections in the South American nation. In provincial elections so far this year, voter participation is just below 70% compared to the 75% level from the last presidential election cycle in 2019, according to electoral data compiled by investment firm Latin Securities.
On a TV interview Sunday night Massa encouraged voters to take the primary vote seriously.
“This is the first half of a game that could have a first half, a second half and overtime,” he said. “We have to go and look for the results in the first half.”
Other Key Points From the Interview:
- In October, “I don’t think Massa’s candidacy could lose the hard Kirchnerist vote,” Germano said
- Milei voters tend to be anti-Kirchnerist and when they see an opposition coalition that is weaker against Massa, they will likely gravitate there
- Milei was performing much better on phone and online polls than in person, a gap that leveled off in recent weeks
- “We trust in-person polling more. There, against Bullrich, Massa does better,” Germano said
- “There’s a lot more people who identify with none of the parties than those who identify with one of the parties. The issue is whether they show up,” Germano said.
(Updates story with more details from the interview and data on voter participation)
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