Six years after a failed attempt to declare independence upended Spanish politics, Catalan separatists unexpectedly find themselves at the center of machinations in Madrid following Sunday’s surprise election result.
(Bloomberg) — Six years after a failed attempt to declare independence upended Spanish politics, Catalan separatists unexpectedly find themselves at the center of machinations in Madrid following Sunday’s surprise election result.
After defying projections of a right-wing majority, Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is trying to piece together enough support to secure a third term in office. His efforts may well hinge on whether he can cut a deal with a separatist leader who’s been living in self-imposed exile in Belgium since 2017.
The seven lawmakers from the Junts per Catalunya party ultimately report to Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan president who fled Spain following an illegal referendum. Junts officials have spent weeks insisting they won’t support another Sanchez administration, upset that he prevented their candidate from becoming mayor of Barcelona.
But that was before they realized quite how much leverage they would have. If Sanchez can line up votes from regular allies on the left, an abstention from Junts would be enough for him to take office again.
The party understands that it has a decisive role to play in the next phase of Spanish politics and will take its time to figure out how best to play its hand, according to a person familiar with the leadership’s thinking.
Spain has become accustomed to periods of political gridlock since the breakdown of the traditional two-party system a decade ago. That has left politicians struggling to piece together support in a fragmented parliament and led to a succession of weak minority governments.
Sanchez has proved to be a master of navigating this unfamiliar territory, repeatedly forging alliances that combine the far left as well as separatist groups from Catalonia and the Basque region.
While those parties have widely differing objectives and demands, Sanchez was able to strike compromises by appealing to their common opposition to the conservative People’s Party. That maneuver has become more compelling since the emergence of the far-right group Vox.
The bitter divides over Catalonia’s bid for independence has shaped Spanish politics for years. They helped to bring down the previous PP government of Mariano Rajoy and spurred the rise of Vox.
The main separatist parties actually saw their share of the vote decline in Sunday’s ballot as some of their supporters backed Sanchez in a bid to thwart the right-wing parties. Yet they’ve emerged with their leverage vastly increased.
Since taking power in 2018, Sanchez has sought to rebuild bridges with the separatists, and has relied heavily on the them to pass legislation. His strategy paid off on Sunday, as the Socialists recorded their best result in the region since 2008, claiming 19 out of 48 seats available in the region.
Catalonia has traditionally been one of the Socialist party’s main constituencies, but its support had ebbed in recent years amid the independence push.
Any negotiation with Junts will be extraordinarily complex given the party is demanding a referendum on independence and an amnesty for Puigdemont and scores of other activists facing prosecution.
A referendum would be politically explosive for Sanchez and legally tricky under the Spanish constitution. The prime minister has already granted controversial pardons to allies of Puigdemont who stayed to face the Spanish justice system. Making similar concessions to the movement’s figurehead would be a lot for many Socialist supporters to swallow.
Sanchez on Monday told a meeting of senior Socialist officials that he expects lawmakers to find a solution once the new parliament is seated in August.
“I’m sure this democracy will find a formula to secure the country can be governed,” he told the group, according to a party press officer.
Adding to the intrigue, prosecutors at Spain’s Supreme Court on Monday requested an international arrest warrant be issued against Puigdemont, according to newspaper El Mundo. The request follows a July 5 ruling by the EU’s General Court that stripped Puigdemont of his immunity as a member of the European Parliament.
Another Catalan separatist, Clara Ponsati, who recently returned to Spain, was arrested on Monday.
Junts doesn’t see itself abstaining at this stage to let Sanchez take office, Secretary General Jordi Turull said Monday. The party needs to be “loyal to Catalonia,” he added.
–With assistance from Alonso Soto and Zoe Schneeweiss.
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