Barclays Securities pushed back its forecast for when the Bank of Japan is likely to tweak its yield curve control program, while financial markets signal some signs of wariness that change could take place later this month.
(Bloomberg) — Barclays Securities pushed back its forecast for when the Bank of Japan is likely to tweak its yield curve control program, while financial markets signal some signs of wariness that change could take place later this month.
“The BOJ has taken a clear behind-the-curve stance and does not appear compelled at this stage to revise YCC based on the current improvements in wage and price indicators,” Tetsufumi Yamakawa, chief Japan economist at Barclays, wrote in a note Thursday. He now sees a shift in October instead of July.
Barclays’ change of heart comes after Bank of America economists also moved their call from July to October earlier this week. The shifts point to the possibility that other economists may also be rethinking their forecasts. In last month’s Bloomberg survey of BOJ watchers, July was the most popular timing for a policy shift.
One complication for analysts is that the central bank likely won’t hint at tweaking its yield curve control in advance, in order to avoid any major bond selloffs before they’ve actually made any change to policy.
“We are no longer sufficiently confident in a July BOJ adjustment to make it our base case, though we certainly would not rule it out,” BofA economists Izumi Devalier and Takayasu Kudo wrote in a report Monday.
Still, some financial market indicators suggest an emerging sense of caution over the possibility that the central bank may tweak its yield control this month. Ten-year swap rates, popular with international funds, have climbed well beyond the central bank’s ceiling for equivalent yields.
Read More: BOJ Speculation Stirs in Tokyo as Traders Mull July Policy Tweak
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