Thailand’s parliament will meet on Thursday to vote in a new prime minister. With Pita Limjaroenrat so far the only candidate in the running for the top job, it looks like lawmakers have an easy choice.
(Bloomberg) — Thailand’s parliament will meet on Thursday to vote in a new prime minister. With Pita Limjaroenrat so far the only candidate in the running for the top job, it looks like lawmakers have an easy choice.
In reality, it’s going to be anything but that for Pita. The influence of the 250-member military-appointed Senate over the election process means Pita’s pro-democracy coalition isn’t guaranteed of a favorable outcome.
Adding to the uncertainty is the Election Commission’s dilly-dallying over questions on Pita’s qualification amid a probe into allegations he held stake in a media company — a breach of election rules.
“It’s clear that Thailand is in a state of political abnormality,” Pita said in a video published Tuesday, pleading with lawmakers to support the popular mandate. “The vote for prime minister isn’t about choosing Pita or Move Forward Party. It’s about reaffirming that Thailand must move forward in line with the democratic system.”
Pita cobbled together an alliance of eight parties that hold more than 60% of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives after the May 14 general election. He still needs the support of senators to reach the minimum 376 combined parliament votes to become prime minister.
Pita’s supporters are planning to gather outside the parliament on Thursday to pressure senators to back the choice of the people. Prospects of protests and further delays in government formation will further weigh on Thailand’s troubled stocks, bonds and currency markets.
Here are some scenarios that could unfold this week:
Pita Becomes PM
If the pro-democracy alliance manages to win the support of at least 65 lawmakers from either the conservative parties or the establishment-aligned Senate, Pita will have the magic number — 376 votes — to become Thailand’s 30th prime minister and the youngest in nearly eight decades.
His main obstacle is the old guards’ opposition to Move Forward’s agenda to amend the lese majeste law, or Article 112 of the Thai criminal code, which penalizes criticism of the king and other royals.
If this scenario plays out, Pita will proceed to form his cabinet likely to be dominated by members of his Move Forward party and Pheu Thai, the party that placed second in the election and is linked to exiled former leader Thaksin Shinawatra. Then the new government should be in place by next month.
Pita Stumbles
This is the most likely scenario for many analysts.
The majority of the Senate is expected to either reject Pita’s candidacy outright or abstain from voting on July 13. The 188 members of the lower chamber outside of Pita’s coalition aren’t expected to side with him either.
Bhumjaithai, the party that placed third in the May election, has said it won’t endorse a candidate from a party that seeks to amend the lese majeste law.
The upside for the Move Forward leader is that under current rules, there’s no limit to the number of times the parliament can reconvene to elect a premier. There is also no deadline for when the choice has to be made.
If Pita fails to get at least 376 votes on Thursday, he’s expected to try again at the next session which is likely on July 19.
It remains to be seen how many times the alliance, particularly Pheu Thai, would let Pita submit himself to a parliament vote before demanding that it be given a chance to form the government.
Or Pheu Thai may explore breaking away from the coalition altogether and form a government with the conservative parties. Most analysts expect Pheu Thai to be the main variable in any potential coalition government.
In a report earlier this month, analysts at Nomura Holdings Inc. said the odds of Pheu Thai heading the government has increased to 60% from 55% while the chances of Move Forward has dropped to 30% from 35%.
Vote Is Postponed
An emerging scenario is that lawmakers may vote to postpone the prime minister selection to await more clarity on the legal challenges to Pita’s candidacy.
The election body has been holding meetings this week to discuss its investigation as to whether Pita violated election rules on candidacy. The meetings stoked speculation that the commission may decide soon whether to seek a Constitutional Court ruling that could disqualify him.
The potential legal challenge gives Pita’s opponents the scope to delay voting on his nomination. If the poll panel submits a case against Pita, the court may accept it and immediately suspend his status as a lawmaker as well as bar him from being nominated for premier.
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