China’s latest economic support measures buoyed stocks and commodities on Tuesday, though the mood was tempered by policy makers’ warnings of higher-for-longer interest rates.
(Bloomberg) — China’s latest economic support measures buoyed stocks and commodities on Tuesday, though the mood was tempered by policy makers’ warnings of higher-for-longer interest rates.
Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 edged higher, with Amazon.com Inc. rising about 1% as its Prime Day sale got underway. Gains were muted, however, after several Federal Reserve officials on Monday reiterated the need to tighten further his year, fueling concerns the world’s biggest economy may tip into a recession. Treasury yields were flat and a gauge of the dollar declined for a third day.
While central bank officials in Europe and the US are increasingly suggesting they’ve reached a turning point in the battle against inflation, they’re also warning that higher rates for longer are needed to ensure price stability. That’s a mixed blessing for stock bulls who have had to endure a disappointing start to the second half after stellar gains in the first six months of the year. The approaching second-quarter earnings season will give them more to think about.
“US equity markets have priced in a soft landing, or a more friendly recession, but actually the risk is for the recession to come in harder than expected,” Cecilia Chan, chief investment officer for APAC at HSBC Asset Management, said on Bloomberg TV. “For developed markets we expect a choppy-waters kind of scenario where it will be more difficult from now on, and we are more conscious of valuations that are on the expensive side.”
The Stoxx Europe 600 index was on track for a third day of gains after Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the European Central Bank is nearly finished hiking, but added that interest rates will stay at “high plateau” for some time. Trading volumes were a third lower than the 20-day average. The UK’s benchmark fell as the latest wage data added pressure on the Bank of England to keep raising rates.
Luxury-goods makers and miners were among the biggest gainers in Europe after China announced measures to support its ailing real estate sector and signaled there may be more stimulus on the way. LVMH and Hermes International climbed more than 2% while L’Oreal SA and Richemont also rose. Commerzbank AG jumped after Bloomberg reported that CEO Manfred Knof plans to raise the target for a key profit measure, and Kingspan Group Plc soared as much as 14% after the building materials company issued a positive trading update.
Earlier, a gauge of Asian equities climbed more than 1% with the biggest gains in Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan. Asian chip stocks rose after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported better-than-expected sales and their US peers climbed Monday.
US consumer-price data on Wednesday will give further insight into outlook for prices and interest rates. Most Fed policymakers expect to increase rates by a further half percentage point by the end of the year, according to projections released after their June gathering.
The ECB, meanwhile, is all but certain to raise rates by a quarter point on July 27. Policymakers are debating whether to raise borrowing costs again at their subsequent meeting in September.
In the UK, data showed that wage growth held at a level that BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said is fueling inflation. The data is crucial to shaping the central bank’s next decision on rates in August. The pound rose to the highest versus the dollar since April 2022.
There may be more headwinds for the S&P 500 as profit warnings and fears of higher interest rates combine to threaten US equities, according to the latest Markets Live Pulse survey. The earnings season kicks off in earnest on Friday, when JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. report their numbers.
“Last week’s surge in government bond yields put some pressure on equities – and highlights that companies will need to deliver on the market’s earnings expectations as the Q2 reporting season gets underway,” BlackRock Investment Institute analysts including Jean Boivin wrote in a note. “Resilient consumers have helped support earnings, but we see them exhausting the savings built up during the pandemic this year.”
Elsewhere, iron ore and other metals rose along with crude oil on hopes China’s stimulus measures will lift demand. Gold was steady.
Key events this week:
- Canada rate decision, Wednesday
- Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks, Wednesday
- US CPI, Wednesday
- Federal Reserve issues Beige Book, Wednesday
- Fed speakers include Neel Kashkari, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Wednesday
- China trade, Thursday
- Eurozone industrial production, Thursday
- US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
- US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
- US banks kick off earnings, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 8:29 a.m. New York time
- Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%
- Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
- The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.7%
- The MSCI World index rose 0.3%
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
- The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0984
- The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.2903
- The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 140.52 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $30,391.75
- Ether fell 1.3% to $1,868.62
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.98%
- Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.63%
- Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.64%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $73.34 a barrel
- Gold futures rose 0.5% to $1,940.10 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jason Scott and Tassia Sipahutar.
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