By Nimesh Vora
MUMBAI (Reuters) – The Indian rupee is likely to decline more on Thursday after minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s June meeting showed that almost all members expected more rate hikes this year.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at around 82.30 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 82.2250 in the previous session.
The rupee had on Wednesday slipped below 82.20, a level considered a near-term support. The local currency had hit 81.75 on Monday but has struggled since on dollar buying by public sector banks, likely for the Reserve Bank of India, and by oil companies.
“In the context of how the volatility in the rupee has been, this has been quite a decent move,” a forex trader at a bank said.
“Now its about how much more can we move higher (on USD/INR). I doubt there will be too many who think 82.50 will be taken out.”
The dollar index rose, while near-maturity U.S. yields marched higher and equities pulled back after Fed minutes showed officials favoured additional rate hikes.
While the Fed had opted for a pause at the June meeting, the minutes revealed that some members could have supported a 25 basis points increase. Further, almost all participants judged additional rate increases later this year would be appropriate.
“All up, the meeting minutes support our expectation of a 25 bps hike at the July meeting. Markets are near fully pricing in a hike in July,” ANZ said in a note.
Most Asian currencies were down 0.2% to 0.4%. The 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.9630% in Asia, hovering near the highest since March.
Next up the U.S. private payrolls data for cues on the labour market, followed by the ISM services print.
KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 82.38; onshore one-month forward premium at 7.5 paisa ** USD/INR NSE July futures settled at 82.34 on Wednesday
** USD/INR July forward premium at 6.5 paisa ** Dollar index at 103.32 ** Brent crude futures up 0.2% at $76.8 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.95%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $306.9 mln worth of Indian shares on Jul. 4
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $6.6mln worth of Indian bonds on Jul. 4
(Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Dhanya Ann Thoppil)
