Russia Latest: Prigozhin Relocation Plan Adds New Belarus Threat

Moscow lifted counter-terror measures put in place during mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s short-lived mutiny. His announced relocation to Belarus poses yet another threat to that country, exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said.

(Bloomberg) — Moscow lifted counter-terror measures put in place during mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s short-lived mutiny. His announced relocation to Belarus poses yet another threat to that country, exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said.

The ruble hit its weakest level in 15 months. Prigozhin’s turnaround from his advance toward Moscow defused the biggest threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s almost quarter-century grip on power. 

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All times are CET

Russia’s Prigozhin May Threaten Belarus, Opposition Leader Says (10:08 a.m.)

Prigozhin’s announced relocation to Belarus has created a new threat to the country’s independence as well as the safety of its NATO neighbors, Tsikhanouskaya said.

“If Prigozhin comes to Belarus with his thugs, it will threaten our neighbors too — Poland, Lithuania, Latvia,” Tsikhanouskaya said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.

Baerbock Says Russian Leadership Crisis Still Not Resolved (10 a.m.)

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said the situation in Russia was an internal event that was still unclear and the leadership crisis there was far from resolved. 

“It is just one act in this Russian drama,” Baerbock said before a meeting of European Union foreign ministers in Luxembourg. “It’s still unclear what is happening with the different actors in Russia.”

European Gas Prices Rise on Supply Fears (9:30 a.m.)

European natural gas jumped as nervousness over Prigozhin’s rebellion added to supply fears in an already volatile market. 

Benchmark futures rose as much as 13% on Monday. Gas has soared more than 30% this month with prolonged production outages in Norway countering sluggish demand. Price fluctuations have surged in June, and the dramatic mutiny in Russia over the weekend is only likely to roil markets further.

European Gas Prices Rise as Russian Mutiny Adds to Supply Fear

Ruble Hits Weakest in 15 Months (8:49 a.m.)

The ruble weakened as much as 3% against dollar, the most this year. The Russian currency narrowed losses to trade 0.6% weaker at 85.1050 per dollar at 9:35 a.m. in Moscow, the lowest since March 2022, when it tumbled to new record lows in the weeks after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine started.

“Ongoing uncertainty is likely to keep the ruble still under pressure,” UniCredit AG analysts said in an emailed report, forecasting a fall toward 90 per dollar.

The ruble has lost about 13% of its value against the US currency this year, making it one of the worst performers among emerging markets worldwide.

Moscow Lifts Counter-Terror Regime (8:17 a.m.)

Moscow lifted the so-called counter-terror regime that was put in place Saturday, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on Telegram. Regions of Moscow and Voronezh also removed special security measures activated as the Wagner group mutiny started.

Moscow will hold postponed school graduation celebrations on July 1, Sobyanin added.

Moscow Exchange Due to Operate as Usual (7:40 a.m.)

The Moscow Exchange is due to operate normally after Mayor Sobyanin declared Monday a non-working day in the capital in response to the Wagner revolt. The central bank is due to report an estimate of inflation expectations for June. 

Shoigu Surfaces to Visit Ukraine Front (7:03 a.m.)

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited the front in Ukraine and heard a report on the western grouping of Russian armed forces, according to the Interfax news service.

This is the first time the ministry has reported on Shoigu’s whereabouts since the mutiny by Prigozhin, who demanded the removal of Shoigu and army Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov.

The statement, as reported by Russian news wires, had no mention of its timing.

Australia to Provide Aid Package to Kyiv (4:27 a.m.)

Australia said it would provide a package of aid valued at about $74 million to Ukraine in response to its request for vehicles and ammunition. 

China Backs Russian ‘National Stability’ (2:12 a.m.)

China said it supports Russia’s actions to maintain national stability in a brief statement by a Foreign Ministry spokesperson, who described the weekend’s mutiny as “Russia’s internal affair.”

The statement came after Foreign Minister Qin Gang met in Beijing with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko. It expanded on an earlier comment from Beijing that the pair had exchanged views on international and regional issues of common interest. 

The latest events in Russia were covered by Chinese state media, with the People’s Daily and CCTV both running stories as the news developed. Global Times published an article by former editor-in-chief Hu Xijin analyzing what scenarios the uprising could lead to, including regime change. 

China Backs Russian ‘National Stability’ as Diplomats Meet 

Wagner Group Remains in Luhansk, Ukraine Says (1:30 a.m.)

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said he’s not seeing any exodus of Wagner’s group from the Luhansk region, where its main forces are concentrated. 

“My understanding is that they haven’t completed initial tasks and agreements yet and they don’t have a vision of new logistics,” he said in an interview.

There’s a need to wait and assess possible changes in Russia’s military, as the Wagner’s group was “really much more aggressive and competent on the battlefields,” he said.

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