JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South African company profits this year will not turn negative even if the economies of the country’s biggest trading partners come under pressure, a top local asset manager said on Wednesday.
Old Mutual Investment Group, the asset management arm of insurer Old Mutual, believes South Africa’s banks, insurance companies and globally diversified groups will cushion the recessionary pressures.
More than half of South Africa’s equity market is reliant on global economies, primarily China, Europe and the U.S. and hence a potential recession in these countries could hit South African equities.
But Old Mutual Investment Group asset managers said that while companies’ profits in South Africa will be impacted, they will not turn negative as some sectors have strong defensive qualities.
Corporate earnings in South Africa could increase by up to 3% for the year ending March 2024, Jason Swartz, a portfolio manager for Old Mutual said at a conference organised by Old Mutual on Wednesday.
Swartz said this was a big contrast to a 20% expected fall in earnings in the U.S. in 2024, but also a far cry from a 15% profit increase that South African companies reported a year ago.
“There are defensive components in SA earnings but we are not going to get 10-15% in the next 12 months,” Swartz said.
Elaborating on the “defensive components,” Old Mutual Investment Group’s Chief Investment Officer, Siboniso Nxumalo, said he was bullish on South African banks and insurance companies.
South African banks, such as FirstRand and Standard Bank, are often considered very conservative in their lending policies, which allows them to keep bad loans in check.
Nxumalo is also bullish on some companies which are considered recession proof, such as British American Tobacco, beer maker Anheuser-Busch Inbev, and luxury goods maker Richemont which earn a bulk of their profits overseas.
But the asset management company has exited South African companies which are expected to face the brunt of a U.S. recession, such as miners, small-cap companies and retailers, Nxumalo said.
(Reporting by Promit Mukherjee and Rachel Savage. Editing by Jane Merriman)