Chileans are voting to elect the 50 members of a new Constitutional Council Sunday as the nation tries — once again — to rewrite a charter dating from the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet.
(Bloomberg) — Chileans are voting to elect the 50 members of a new Constitutional Council Sunday as the nation tries — once again — to rewrite a charter dating from the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet.
The vote is likely to highlight a political sea-change in the South American nation as it lurches back to the right, just three years after civil unrest brought much of the country to a standstill amid demands for greater equality and improved social services.
All eyes will be on whether the right can win the three-fifths majority needed in the Council to push through articles in the new constitution without the support of the left. A previous attempt to rewrite the charter was overwhelmingly rejected in a September referendum out of concern it went too far to the left, rewriting the foundations of Chile’s free-market economy and weakening political checks and balances.
“The three lists that rejected the former draft in September will surely be above 62% and the two lists that were for approving the text will be below 38%,” said Pepe Auth, a former member of the lower house and an election forecasting expert.
Should the right win that majority, the constitution that enshrines Chile liberal economic model is likely to remain largely unchanged, much to the relief of the market.
However, it may anger many on the left who had demanded a new constitution to placate the social uprising in late 2019. That push for change led to the election of left-winger and former student leader Gabriel Boric as president late last year.
“Whatever the results of today’s election for new councilors, it represents an advance for a country in a process that has not been easy,” Boric told reporters Sunday. “We have a historic opportunity for reconciliation after the fractures of the past.”
The Experts
The elected body will work on a draft constitution drawn up by a committee of 24 experts chosen by congress earlier this year. It has four months to complete the task.
Whatever happens in the election, the constitutional process establishes a series of principles that can’t be changed, such as the central bank’s independence and a bicameral congress.
The market has mostly priced in a surge in support for the right in the election, but could continue to gain if its predictions are confirmed on Sunday, according to Klaus Kaempfe, portfolio solutions director at Credicorp Capital.
Should that happen, the biggest loser will be President Boric, who strongly backed the original rewrite of the constitution and then insisted on the second attempt.
“If the political right reaches more than 60% of seats in the Council, it will certainly be read as a defeat for the president and his government,” said Claudio Fuentes, a political analyst and professor at Universidad Diego Portales.
(Updates with comment from President Boric in the seventh paragraph and to reflect that voting has started.)
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