Wall Street Is Getting More Worried About the Debt Ceiling. These Charts Show How Much

Analysts have brought forward their expectations for when the US is at risk of breaching its borrowing limit

(Bloomberg) — Investors and politicians are zeroing in on whether or not the US government can avoid crashing into its statutory debt ceiling and a potentially catastrophic technical default that could follow. From Washington to Wall Street, here’s what to watch to gauge how worried observers should be and when they should be concerned.

X-Date Predictions

Underpinning all these market moves are varying estimates about when the government might exhaust its options to fund itself — commonly referred to as the X-date. The administration itself has provided guidance that it might fall short as soon as June, as has the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. Meanwhile, prognosticators across Wall Street have also been busy running the numbers based on government cash flows and expectations around tax and spending, with some strategists pulling forward align with forecasts out of Washington. Others are staying with their late-summer estimate, but acknowledge that the Treasury’s finances will be thin.

Related story on Yellen’s warning to Congress about hitting the limit

The Bills Curve

Investors have historically demanded higher yields on securities that are due to be repaid shortly after the US is seen as running out of borrowing capacity. That puts a lot of focus on the yield curve for bills — the shortest-dated Treasury securities –and potential dislocations that show up. Noticeable upward distortions in particular parts of the curve tend to suggest increased concern among investors that that’s the time Uncle Sam might be at risk of default and right now that’s most prominent around early June. The government this week sold $50 billion of four-week securities — that are scheduled to mature on June 6 — at a record 5.84%. That’s the highest for any Treasury bill auction since 2000.

Related story on the one-month bill auction this week that investors shunned

The Cash Balance

The US government’s ability to pay its debts and meet its spending obligations ultimately comes down to whether it has the cash to do it, so the amount sitting in its checking account is crucial. That figure ebbs and flows from day to day depending on spending, tax receipts, debt repayments and the proceeds of new borrowing. And if it gets too close to zero for the Treasury department’s comfort that could be a problem.

Related newsletter on how Biden and McCarthy are vying for leverage on the ceiling

Congress

Ultimately, some of the most important numbers in this whole saga relate to the amount of votes that can be secured in Washington to get a deal done. That will be driven, in large part, by the willingness of key government leaders to hammer out an agreement. Following is a glance at just how small the window might be for them to bridge the gap and come to an agreement.

Related story on how the short deadline raises the odds of a stopgap fix

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