Extremely dry conditions over the past two years have left over 43,000 people dead and 20 million people at risk of famine.
(Bloomberg) — The deadly combination of high temperatures and low rainfall that affected millions in the Horn of Africa was made about 100 times more likely by climate change.
Global warming is altering rain patterns and bringing more heat to southern Somalia, eastern Kenya and southern Ethiopia, according to a study by scientists at the World Weather Attribution network, which seeks to quantify the role of climate change in extreme weather events. Such exceptionally dry conditions have a 5% chance of happening in any given year on today’s warmer planet.
“People in the Horn of Africa are no strangers to drought, but the duration of this event stretched people beyond their ability to cope,” said Cheikh Kane, a policy advisor at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. “Five consecutive seasons of below-normal rainfall, combined with rain-dependent livelihoods and vulnerability multipliers, like conflict and state fragility, have created a humanitarian disaster.”
At least 43,000 people died in Somalia alone last year as a result of the region’s worst drought in four decades and some 6.5 million Somalis are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity, according to the United Nations. The organization is seeking $2.6 billion in aid for the country, but only 15% has been raised. The situation in the Horn of Africa is an example of how developing nations that have emitted a very small amount of the greenhouse gas warming the planet are disproportionately suffering the consequences of rising temperatures.
“The international community must step up and dramatically increase the volume of funds to support Somalia in this moment of difficulty,” United Nations Secretary General António Guterres said during a two-day visit to the country earlier this month. “Despite Somalia’s zero contributions to climate change, it has become a victim of it.”
To determine the role of climate change on this crisis, scientists at WWA analyzed rainfall patterns from January 2021 to December 2022. They also looked at the traditional rainy seasons last year, from March to May and from October to December. Researchers examined the data using a peer-reviewed scientific method that simulates weather conditions in today’s climate, which has has warmed 1.2C since pre-industrial times, and in a scenario without any warming.
They concluded that the unusual combination of low rainfall and evaporation of water in the soil and plants — a phenomenon known as evapotranspiration — would not have led to drought at all in world where temperature increases had remained below 1.2C. Specifically, the lower-than-average rains seen between the March and May period were twice as likely because of climate change.
Signs of drought were everywhere in Baidoa, one of the cities Guterres visited in Somalia. Dead tree branches and animal corpses were scattered on the ground. Families forced to move from their villages camped in the city’s outskirts in the hopes of finding food and shelter.
Among them was Amina Hassan, a mother of five who walked for eight days to cover the 150 miles to Baidoa from her village. The drought had destroyed her family’s livestock and crops.
“Two of my children were nearly dead when I ran into another family heading to the city,” she said. “They gave us water which revived my children.”
In recent weeks, sudden rains have led to flooding in some areas, worsening the situation for hundreds of people, according to Gamal Hassan, director of the Center of Excellence for Climate Adaptation and Environmental Protection at IGAD, an intergovernmental organization that’s been fighting drought in the region for decades.
“People are very fragile and there’s a water management crisis that we need to deal with,” Hassan said. “There’s a lack of infrastructure to deal with flooding and communities around riverine areas already impacted with crop and livestock destruction. Water-born diseases are very possible.”
The only way forward is a coordinated response across governments in the region and across different sectors, he said. While investments in recent years have improved governments’ abilities to respond to climate emergencies in some specific cities or areas, funds remain insufficient to deal with the emergency everywhere.
“We have the reports, we have the information on weather and climate change,” Hassan said. “But the capacity, the resources to prepare for flooding and drought are not there.”
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