International diplomats stepped up efforts to extend a tenuous cease-fire in conflict-ravaged Sudan, looking to avert an escalation in violence many fear could reverberate outside the North African nation’s borders.
(Bloomberg) — International diplomats stepped up efforts to extend a tenuous cease-fire in conflict-ravaged Sudan, looking to avert an escalation in violence many fear could reverberate outside the North African nation’s borders.
The renewed push by the US, the African Union and others played out as the United Nations warned of growing risks to the health and safety of the population. The fighting that erupted between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces on April 15 has deepened the economic plight of the impoverished nation.
Amid the frenetic efforts, the foreign minister of neighboring South Sudan said his president had secured an agreement from military chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan to extend a 72-hour cease-fire from April 28 to allow civilians and others to secure necessary medical aid, food and essential supplies. His rival, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who heads the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, has also been asked to agree, Deng Dau Deng told reporters Wednesday.
Both men were also asked by South Sudanese President Salva Kiir to meet “face to face” at an unspecified location, Deng told Bloomberg by phone. “If they can’t, then they should send their representatives to meet face to face.” He said his government is awaiting a reply from the two generals.
Efforts were also under way by the US to extend the truce, though previous deals to silence the guns were breached as quickly as they were penned, with both sides accusing the other of reneging on the agreement. The latest cease-fire was agreed to late Monday.
The violence is expected to escalate in the coming 48 hours, according to an April 25 UN internal security assessment seen by Bloomberg. The Sudanese army “is highly likely to increase the use of remaining air assets to target positions, bases and supply lines for the RSF,” it said.
Surging Prices
The fighting has all-but-dashed hopes for stability and a power-sharing government that was supposed to lead the nation of 45 million to democratic elections after the 2021 coup. Already reeling from inflation at over 60%, Sudanese are now grappling with an even greater surge in prices, as well as shortages of almost all key commodities.
The violence has also paralyzed the health sector, with the World Health Organization estimating that around a quarter of those who have died so far in the fighting could have been saved if they’d been able to access treatment.
The WHO said that one of the sides in the conflict has occupied the National Public Health Laboratory, and technicians there no longer have access and are unable to manage the biological and chemical materials stored there for medical purposes. In addition, depleting stocks of blood at the facility are at risk of spoiling due to a power outage.
The rising human toll, including an exodus of Sudanese looking to escape the fighting, is being compounded by fears that the conflict will spill-over into neighboring countries or even draw some in as regional players take sides.
The regional fallout from the conflict is starting to become evident.
Thousands of people have fled across the western border with Chad and the northern border with neighboring Egypt, where the authorities have struggled to cope. Videos posted online showed scores of Sudanese people sprawled on the floor on mats waiting to be processed by officials. A bus ticket that cost $60-$70 a week ago has increased ten-fold, said Sherine Tadros, deputy director of advocacy at London-based human-rights group Amnesty International.
“At the border the lines of buses are long, processing is so slow and there is nowhere to wait,” she said on Twitter. “Many women, children, elderly sitting on the cement floor for days.”
In a briefing Wednesday, the African Union’s commissioner for political affairs, peace and security, Bankole Adeoye, said the AU had reached out to other key parties, including the UN, the Arab League, regional powers and the EU to exert pressure on the generals to end the violence. At the same time, he warned that “we, the African Union, will not tolerate a proxy war in the East African region of our continent.”
The comments echoed, in part, warnings by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who said that the ongoing power struggle not only threatens Sudan, but is also “lighting a fuse that could detonate across borders, causing immense suffering for years, and setting development back for decades.”
–With assistance from Mohammed Alamin and Janice Kew.
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